Ohtani

[17 Seconds]

It's high time he got his own thread

 

Here is an absurd little run he's had this week

 

Tuesday- 445 ft HR

Wednesday- 4 walks

Thursday- 3 walks

Friday- 4 walks

Saturday- 2 triples, 2 walks

Sunday- 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Edited September 27, 2021 by 17 Seconds

[imb]

what the horsefeathers

[NewUserName]

I am not an expert on advanced stats by any measure so this may just be dumb...but Ohtani WAR was 9.0. I know that is a really good season by any measure. I know he did not have any defense to add to the pot. But for someone with a OPS+ of 158 and pitched as well as he did, this seems low

[Omar]

Monday - No playoffs

 

(kind of feel bad for over overachievers on bad teams)

[squally1313]

A post trade deadline loan system would be a fun idea to think about (and then probably ultimately decide it wouldn't work). Every team gets to make one loan transaction, trading something permanently for the services of one player for the rest of the year that goes back to their original team in the offseason, all parties (both teams, the player) have to sign off on the transaction.

[UMFan83]

A post trade deadline loan system would be a fun idea to think about (and then probably ultimately decide it wouldn't work). Every team gets to make one loan transaction, trading something permanently for the services of one player for the rest of the year that goes back to their original team in the offseason, all parties (both teams, the player) have to sign off on the transaction.

 

Might be difficult for pitchers. What if the loaning team wears down the pitcher in the postseason knowing that they won't have him the following year a la Chapman in 2016?

[Bertz]

I am not an expert on advanced stats by any measure so this may just be dumb...but Ohtani WAR was 9.0. I know that is a really good season by any measure. I know he did not have any defense to add to the pot. But for someone with a OPS+ of 158 and pitched as well as he did, this seems low

 

There's definitely value beyond just the raw production from each role. This article does a food job trying to quantify it, with the tl;dr being somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0 WAR

 

[UMFan83]

Not sure if we ever created a Ohtani FA thread yet but I’ll use this to give some relatively baseless speculation:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/04/09/diamondbacks-changing-game-aggressive-style/11630921002/

Quote

“Yet, the sleeper in the Ohtani free-agent frenzy, several baseball executives predict, are the Chicago Cubs,” he said. “They were the only team outside the AL West and NL West that were on Ohtani’s original list when he left Japan six years ago, and certainly, they have plenty of money stored up to pay Ohtani whatever he desires.”

An American League executive was quoted in the story as saying “I could easily see him going” to Chicago, further fueling the speculative fires

 

[PackLandVA]

 

[Banghart]

I am not prepared to be rational about any potential Ohtani sweepstakes. There is no price that is not worth it to bring this one of kind of player to Chicago and I will be disappointed when the inevitable happens. 

[CubinNY]

He's not coming to the Cubs. Don't even think about it. 

[Banghart]

From the outset I've acknowledged that I am both not rational on this topic and that I will be disappointed.

[CubinNY]

32 minutes ago, Banghart said:

From the outset I've acknowledged that I am both not rational on this topic and that I will be disappointed.

The Cubs are in a better situation than LAA, but similar. They have a team of some good, not great players, and the rest are interchangeable parts. Otani will be looking to go to a team ready to compete, not for a wildcard, but for WS. I also don't see the Ricketts shelling out the kind of money or Jed willing to go the number of years he will likely be looking for. 

[Brian707]

The Ricketts family had losses of biblical proportions just a short time ago. It won't happen

[UMFan83]

 

[CubinNY]

21 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

Does this make it more likely the Cubs sign him?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Does this make it more likely the Cubs sign him?

We reach the 90+% mark when Nightengale says the same.

[Banghart]

9 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

We reach the 90+% mark when Nightengale says the same.

Unfortunately it was Nightengale who even gave the glimmer of hope there.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I want the Cubs to do whatever it takes to sign Ohtani, and I don't care how much they have to spend to get it done.

At the same time, I think it is a near certainty that he won't live up the value of whatever insane deal he signs.  He will be 30 years old in the first year of his contract and we simply don't know how his skills are going to hold up as both a pitcher and a hitter.  Teams will be paying for both, yet it only takes one injury for that team to lose both their best pitcher and best hitter.

If a team like the Dodgers or Yankees were to sign Ohtani and the deal backfires, they would continue to spend and find ways to work around it.  If the Cubs sign him, they likely won't go anywhere near another big contract for the duration of the deal.  The whole Cubs roster for the foreseeable future would be a house of cards stacked on top of Ohtani.  I absolutely want to take that risk, but I understand Heyman's logic.  Obviously the Cubs will have the money to spend if they want to, but I'm not sure they have the appetite to set the market on a historically large contract.

[UMFan83]

Would Ohtani agree to negotiate an extension at the time of trade?  Otherwise I don't see Jed making a trade for a 1/2 season of Ohtani with the hopes that it gives them the opportunity to negotiate exclusively for a few months

[Transmogrified Tiger]

49 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Would Ohtani agree to negotiate an extension at the time of trade?  Otherwise I don't see Jed making a trade for a 1/2 season of Ohtani with the hopes that it gives them the opportunity to negotiate exclusively for a few months

I would put the odds of a mid-season extension at basically zero, or at least act that way for the purposes of any deal.  To that end, here's the case you could make:

• Ohtani is the high end arm *and* bat the Cubs are currently missing.  They have the current SP depth to go to the 6 man rotation Ohtani requires, and they have a mostly empty DH slot for him to have maximum impact(if Mancini starts hitting this is less relevant but only a little). Let's put this another way, if the Cubs were in contention at the deadline and traded for Rafael Devers AND Corbin Burnes, what would their championship odds look like?  I'd argue they'd look as good as most teams.  Even without the extension, Ohtani is buying a serious chance at a championship and that's very much something. 
• The question then becomes at what cost, and that's where recent trends make this more viable.  Ohtani might be the unicorn that breaks the scale here, but we've seen numerous examples in recent years that rentals are not bringing tippy top prospects in return.  They're bringing fringe top 100 guys or players on the upswing who may get top 100 hype after the current season.  In other words, the exact meat of the Cubs prospect depth, which for the serious chance at a championship(and possible future benefits) could be worth parting with 2-3 guys of that caliber.
• As for those future benefits, if you're the Cubs and you are interested in signing Ohtani, there's several benefits to having him in the org.  An Ohtani-led Cubs are going to be playing in front of big crowds and almost certainly meaningful postseason baseball, considering how important winning is likely to be to Ohtani in choosing a future home it would go a long way to wipe out any current view of the Cubs as non-contenders.  It also gives him an up close look at the things the Cubs have been pretty good at selling already, their pitching development, clubhouse environment(complete with existing Japanese star signed for 3 more years), etc.  It also lowers the uncertainty for the front office in offering absurd money to a player who they haven't gotten an up close look at and how they can help him maintain success or (somehow) find another level.

[UMFan83]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I would put the odds of a mid-season extension at basically zero, or at least act that way for the purposes of any deal.  To that end, here's the case you could make:

• Ohtani is the high end arm *and* bat the Cubs are currently missing.  They have the current SP depth to go to the 6 man rotation Ohtani requires, and they have a mostly empty DH slot for him to have maximum impact(if Mancini starts hitting this is less relevant). Let's put this another way, if the Cubs were in contention at the deadline and traded for Rafael Devers AND Corbin Burnes, what would their championship odds look like?  I'd argue they'd look as good as most teams.  Even without the extension, Ohtani is buying a serious chance at a championship and that's very much something. 
• The question then becomes at what cost, and that's where recent trends make this more viable.  Ohtani might be the unicorn that breaks the scale here, but we've seen numerous examples in recent years that rentals are not bringing tippy top prospects in return.  They're bringing fringe top 100 guys or players on the upswing who may get top 100 hype after the current season.  In other words, the exact meat of the Cubs prospect depth, which for the serious chance at a championship(and possible future benefits) could be worth parting with 2-3 guys of that caliber.
• As for those future benefits, if you're the Cubs and you are interested in signing Ohtani, there's several benefits to having him in the org.  An Ohtani-led Cubs are going to be playing in front of big crowds and almost certainly meaningful postseason baseball, considering how important winning is likely to be to Ohtani in choosing a future home it would go a long way to wipe out any current view of the Cubs as non-contenders.  It also gives him an up close look at the things the Cubs have been pretty good at selling already, their pitching development, clubhouse environment(complete with existing Japanese star signed for 3 more years), etc.  It also lowers the uncertainty for the front office in offering absurd money to a player who they haven't gotten an up close look at and how they can help him maintain success or (somehow) find another level.

Good points.  I do think Ohtani will break any previous scale for mid-season rentals though for the exact reasons you outlined.  Any team that gets him is getting impact starter and bat, and assuming they are in contention probably have a leg up on signing him.

Knowing this, if the Cubs are serious about Ohtani, it would really help them to be in contention at the deadline.  If the Cubs are under .500 they probably arent trading for him and a Dodgers/Mariners (due to west coast)/Yankees/Mets team has 2 months to make an impression on him.  He'll still probably hit the market and will still probably go to the highest bidder, but it may allow him to be more open to exploring playing on the east coast or elsewhere.

Feels like the Cubs best chance for Ohtani is trading for him at the deadline and then offering him enough money to be in the range of other teams, assuming his experience here is positive.  Otherwise, they might have to actually be the undeniable highest bidder to have a shot.

Edited April 20, 2023 by UMFan83

[CubinNY]

It's Bowden, but he seems to think the Angles will trade Ohtani and make a hard bid to resign him in free agency. I'd hate to see the Cubs deal out a bunch of their top prospects and then see him go back to LAA.

[squally1313]

I'd have to imagine in that scenario that LAA would have to blow all the other offers out of the water to have a chance at getting him back. They'd need to somehow pick up a ton of almost-MLB ready talent to be able to sell him on a winning team during Trout's early 30s, which I can't see a team giving up in a 'go all in for Ohtani' deal.

Otherwise, outside of just family life/comfort, Ohtani is making $70m this year including endorsements. If he wants to win, LAA has built up a big hill to overcome. 

[imb]

i gotta think the chance ohtani goes back to the angels is the lowest number imaginable