Week 2: Bears vs. Bengals

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Sunday at noon CT.

 

[David]

 

it's happening faster than i expected

[minnesotacubsfan]

good

 

fire Nagy Hire Lazor

[Tryptamine]

40%, that's the chances I think the Bears actually win this one.

[Brian707]

Bears 27 Bungles 24

[WrigleyField 22]

Had a hard time finding Montgomery on this chart at first.

 

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears have gone from -3.5 to -2.5. -120 to win outright

 

O/U 45

 

Heavy heavy negative sentiment on this team coming out of Sunday night had me thinking it would be worse.

[UMFan83]

I don't know why the bettors are underestimating the Bears in this one, it's the Andy Dalton Revenge Game!

 

Oh wait, Dalton started against the Bengals last year and a 122.6 QB Rating, so he used up his revenge mojo

[gflore34]

Sunday at noon CT.

 

 

Of course it did, very frustrating, there's myriad of ways one can be aggressive on offense in today' NFL regardless of the offensive line, we'll never see with Nagy. He's too scared, conservative to go down swinging, thinks his play not lose, limit mistakes approach is going to save his job which, it won't, in fact, it'll do the opposite and cost him his job. What was the point of Pace trying to upgrade speed at the receiving spots again?

[UMFan83]

There are still people on Twitter justifying Nagy’s performance due to his record. The dude is 3-9 in his last 12 games with wins over teams with records of 4-12, 7-9 and 1-15. Maybe 12 games is a small sample but it’s trending downward in a hurry.

[raw]

Ok, I'm going to defend Nagy a little bit. While I hate that the Bears didn't even threaten the intermediate and deep part of the field, the game plan did sort of work until mistakes happened.

 

- If Kmet doesn't jump on the opening drive, it was 3rd and 1. Bears had a pretty decent chance of converting. Even if they don't, 3rd and 6 forced Dalton to throw and turn the ball over. 3 points taken off the board.

 

- If Dalton throws to Kmet, who was open in the middle of the field on what became the 3rd and 6 play, the Bears score 7 instead of 0 there, obviously.

 

- 2nd drive, Dalton again missed Kmet, who was wide open on crosser with tons of room to run, when he threw behind a covered Robinson on 4th and 4. Kmet certainly would have moved the chains and likely gone at least 10-15 yards, putting them in clear FG range.

 

-3rd drive, Dalton gets sacked on another 4th and 4 and fumbles when Peters didn't know who to block. Mental error on the vet Peters. That was at the LA38, so a conversion meant 3 more points.

 

-4th drive. The only one that ended in a punt. At the LA47, likely goes for it on 4th and 2 had the Bears managed to convert either of the previous two 4th down plays. Cowardly punt, but probably no faith in his QB at this point. Would have liked to seen Fields in there to run that play he did on the goaline.

 

5th and 6th drives were TDs.

 

-7th drive was the 4th and 15 failure that basically ended the game. That 4th down play is what it is, but from the 30, the Bears likely kick for 3 if they had been able to get points on just 1 of the previous drives. Would have made the score 20-27 if just 1 FG in any of those first 4 drives.

 

So, I know it doesn't necessarily work this way, but the Bears were a bad penalty and a couple bad reads from potentially putting up a respectable number of points. All in all, I'm not really any higher or lower on Nagy or the team. They were always going to lose to the Rams. I'm encouraged by the production in the run game against a good defense and the willingness to stick with it throughout the game. Also, the ability to move the ball up and down the field without any 3 & outs. That being said, this was basically what we saw last year. They'll probably be good enough to beat the Lions, Vikings, Bengals, Giants, and maybe the Raiders just like they were able to beat the Lions, Jags and Texans late last year. But they are clearly not ready to compete with the Packers (unless Rodgers is really not interested), Steelers, Browns, and NFC West teams. Which ultimately is exactly what we expected, so I don't see how Nagy's seat would be any hotter than it was on Saturday.

[UMFan83]

Not sure how true this is but…

 

[jersey cubs fan]

what drive was the blatant PI non-call?

[PackLandVA]

Just saw da Raiduh’s signed Damion Square off the Bears practice squad. Don’t know much about him other than he’s a vet who’s been in the league for several years. Outside of an injury to a Bears DL, was this guy a potential weekly active guy or jag?

[raw]

what drive was the blatant PI non-call?

 

Oh yeah forgot about that. That was the 3rd and 2 before the only punt of the game. That would have also put the Bears about 5-6 yards from FG range with a fresh set of downs.

[raw]

Just saw da Raiduh’s signed Damion Square off the Bears practice squad. Don’t know much about him other than he’s a vet who’s been in the league for several years. Outside of an injury to a Bears DL, was this guy a potential weekly active guy or jag?

 

He was only signed this week because Goldman didn't go. Played 5 snaps. Ultimate JAG

[Brian707]

Bears have gone from -3.5 to -2.5. -120 to win outright

 

O/U 45

 

Heavy heavy negative sentiment on this team coming out of Sunday night had me thinking it would be worse.

 

 

Recency bias, bettors overreact to week 1. Look ahead line prior to week 1 had the Bears at -4.5. I think the best bet is the over in this game actually. Its going to be 90F on Sunday, defenses will be gassed. Bears better switch to their white jerseys for this one.

 

Another game Tennessee at Seattle( -5.5) wut? I know its in Seattle but people are putting too much stock into how bad Tennessee looked and how good Seattle looked

Edited September 15, 2021 by Brian707

[minnesotacubsfan]

Counterpoint: Russell Wilson for MVP

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears have gone from -3.5 to -2.5. -120 to win outright

 

O/U 45

 

Heavy heavy negative sentiment on this team coming out of Sunday night had me thinking it would be worse.

 

 

Regency bias,

 

Is this when teams that stay at a Hyatt get an extra 1-2 points from Vegas?

[Brian707]

Bears have gone from -3.5 to -2.5. -120 to win outright

 

O/U 45

 

Heavy heavy negative sentiment on this team coming out of Sunday night had me thinking it would be worse.

 

 

Regency bias,

 

Is this when teams that stay at a Hyatt get an extra 1-2 points from Vegas?

 

Woops lol spell check. But yes they probably get the extra 1-2 points for staying at the Hyatt

[PackLandVA]

Counterpoint: Russell Wilson for MVP

 

Russell's pretty great, but check out the start of last season - 14 TDs and 1 INT thru the first three games. Then 26/12 the rest of the way. Very un-MVP numbers. Similar in 2019 - 14 TD and 0 INT thru first 6 games. Then a good but not great 17 TD / 5 INT the rest of the way.

[UMFan83]

Bears have gone from -3.5 to -2.5. -120 to win outright

 

O/U 45

 

Heavy heavy negative sentiment on this team coming out of Sunday night had me thinking it would be worse.

 

 

Recency bias, bettors overreact to week 1. Look ahead line prior to week 1 had the Bears at -4.5. I think the best bet is the over in this game actually. Its going to be 90F on Sunday, defenses will be gassed. Bears better switch to their white jerseys for this one.

 

https://www.chicagobears.com/photos/2021-chicago-bears-jersey-schedule

 

Nope they will foolishly be in their dark jerseys. Weird jersey schedule...wearing the navys 6 of the first 8 games, and then only 2 times in the last 9 games (because of the throwback being a white jersey, plus the orange alternate)

[minnesotacubsfan]

Counterpoint: Russell Wilson for MVP

 

Russell's pretty great, but check out the start of last season - 14 TDs and 1 INT thru the first three games. Then 26/12 the rest of the way. Very un-MVP numbers. Similar in 2019 - 14 TD and 0 INT thru first 6 games. Then a good but not great 17 TD / 5 INT the rest of the way.

 

 

well, that all might be true, but all the more reason for the bettors to overreact in favor of Wilson early in the season.

 

should we say Russel Wilson for First Half MVP (?)

[WrigleyField 22]

Bears have gone from -3.5 to -2.5. -120 to win outright

 

O/U 45

 

Heavy heavy negative sentiment on this team coming out of Sunday night had me thinking it would be worse.

 

 

Recency bias, bettors overreact to week 1. Look ahead line prior to week 1 had the Bears at -4.5. I think the best bet is the over in this game actually. Its going to be 90F on Sunday, defenses will be gassed. Bears better switch to their white jerseys for this one.

 

https://www.chicagobears.com/photos/2021-chicago-bears-jersey-schedule

 

Nope they will foolishly be in their dark jerseys. Weird jersey schedule...wearing the navys 6 of the first 8 games, and then only 2 times in the last 9 games (because of the throwback being a white jersey, plus the orange alternate)

And they're not wearing orange on Halloween which is when I thought they always tried to wear that one.

[David]

I can't believe it's only one week in and this horsefeathers is already starting...

 

 

 

 

It would be hilarious of Nagy, after finally getting his own (stud) QB, got himself canned by dying on this hill and pissing everyone off on the team and possibly his own coaching staff.

Edited September 15, 2021 by David