Bye Jake, get vaccinated or something

[UMFan83]

 

He's at full 10/5, I highly doubt the places that would trade for him and that he'd go to intersect at all... especially considering I have a feeling the places he'd accept a trade to is pretty close to 0 if not 0.

 

Forgot about the 10/5. Was going to say he might move in a situation where we take an even worse contract (more years or more AAV). Do buyouts happen a lot in baseball?

 

He's a great clubhouse presence and his defense is still solid (I think) so its not the worst thing in the world to have him as an extra OF on the roster as long as its clear he is not an everyday or even platoon starter for the next team that attempts to contend.

 

This is a pretty dire statement, but considering we're on the hook for his contract regardless, and given the lack of any other options, if the goal is competitive in 2022, isn't it prudent to see if he can figure out how to be 2020 Heyward again?

 

I dunno. His situation is opposite of Happ's. Prior to last season he had 2100 PAs of mostly below average hitting for the Cubs (.711 OPS). Do we trust that or the 181 PAs from a shortened season that had a lot of strange outliers across the league? If we somehow unlock 2020 Heyward next year, and the Cubs intend to compete in 2023, that gives us 1 year to "enjoy" this Heyward before he's a FA. So in my mind the chances of actually unlocking 2020 are not worth the limited benefit. If there's no obvious outfielder to develop? Sure knock yourself out.

[squally1313]

 

Forgot about the 10/5. Was going to say he might move in a situation where we take an even worse contract (more years or more AAV). Do buyouts happen a lot in baseball?

 

He's a great clubhouse presence and his defense is still solid (I think) so its not the worst thing in the world to have him as an extra OF on the roster as long as its clear he is not an everyday or even platoon starter for the next team that attempts to contend.

 

This is a pretty dire statement, but considering we're on the hook for his contract regardless, and given the lack of any other options, if the goal is competitive in 2022, isn't it prudent to see if he can figure out how to be 2020 Heyward again?

 

I dunno. His situation is opposite of Happ's. Prior to last season he had 2100 PAs of mostly below average hitting for the Cubs (.711 OPS). Do we trust that or the 181 PAs from a shortened season that had a lot of strange outliers across the league? If we somehow unlock 2020 Heyward next year, and the Cubs intend to compete in 2023, that gives us 1 year to "enjoy" this Heyward before he's a FA. So in my mind the chances of actually unlocking 2020 are not worth the limited benefit. If there's no obvious outfielder to develop? Sure knock yourself out.

 

The last part is crucial though. He was a 2 fWAR guy in 2018 and 2019, and on pace for his best season yet last year. Even a pessimistic look at those three years gets you a roughly 2 win player, though obviously you factor in his age and current performance. Is there anyone in the system that you think realistically is going to eclipse that next year? Maybe Davis, but he'll get his chance next month if he keeps hitting. If the choice is Heyward or Deichmann the rest of the year...give me Heyward.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah, until and unless the Cubs have a much deeper pool of outfielders at the major league level, there's no reason to release Heyward. Maybe there's an offseason trade to be worked out, but that's got to be bottom of the todo list given how much depth needs to be improved in many places.

[Bertz]

Next up, Jason Heyward.

 

Is this something that could really happen? I was hoping (more like wishing) they could move him at the deadline. Even if they had to eat 90% of the contract I would have been happy with it.

 

I think this offseason we're finally at the point where it might happen (though it's unlikely). Right now, we have 5 (!!!) LH OFer/1B types between the MLB club and Iowa:

 

Heyward

Happ

Ortega

Deichman

Rivas

 

With the latter two having minor league options, and with the DH being an inevitability, it's not an untenable situation to keep all five.

 

But there is some light 40 man crunch this winter IIRC. And having 5 of practically the same guy on your 40 is pretty dumb. So I think you should expect one of these guys to be shipped out. Happ's clearly the most likely impact guy, so he probably stays. Ortega's currently playing the best by far, so he stays too. The team JUST traded for Deichman, so they clearly like him. That leaves you Rivas and Heyward. They probably keep Heyward for veteran mentorship and such, but we've gotten through enough of his contract that it's no longer a slam dunk.

[Sammy Sofa]

From wondering how the Cubs will possibly find room for all of those slam dunk MI prospects to this discussion. It's been quite the half decade.

[UMFan83]

From wondering how the Cubs will possibly find room for all of those slam dunk MI prospects to this discussion. It's been quite the half decade.

 

Right? I know how we got here but its still strange that the organization is in this shape 5 years after being the crown jewel of the sport.

[cl smooth]

From wondering how the Cubs will possibly find room for all of those slam dunk MI prospects to this discussion. It's been quite the half decade.

 

Right? I know how we got here but its still strange that the organization is in this shape 5 years after being the crown jewel of the sport.

 

certain that someone here can channel their inner charlie kelly and go full pepe silvia as to why addison russell is the cause for the destruction of the "cubs dynasty."

[Backtobanks]

 

Is this something that could really happen? I was hoping (more like wishing) they could move him at the deadline. Even if they had to eat 90% of the contract I would have been happy with it.

 

He's at full 10/5, I highly doubt the places that would trade for him and that he'd go to intersect at all... especially considering I have a feeling the places he'd accept a trade to is pretty close to 0 if not 0.

 

Forgot about the 10/5. Was going to say he might move in a situation where we take an even worse contract (more years or more AAV). Do buyouts happen a lot in baseball?

 

He's a great clubhouse presence and his defense is still solid (I think) so its not the worst thing in the world to have him as an extra OF on the roster as long as its clear he is not an everyday or even platoon starter for the next team that attempts to contend.

 

I suggested Heyward for Hosmer with the necessary tweaking (prospects/cash). We're desperate to get rid of Heyward and the Padres are just as desperate to get rid of Hosmer.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

He's at full 10/5, I highly doubt the places that would trade for him and that he'd go to intersect at all... especially considering I have a feeling the places he'd accept a trade to is pretty close to 0 if not 0.

 

Forgot about the 10/5. Was going to say he might move in a situation where we take an even worse contract (more years or more AAV). Do buyouts happen a lot in baseball?

 

He's a great clubhouse presence and his defense is still solid (I think) so its not the worst thing in the world to have him as an extra OF on the roster as long as its clear he is not an everyday or even platoon starter for the next team that attempts to contend.

 

I suggested Heyward for Hosmer with the necessary tweaking (prospects/cash). We're desperate to get rid of Heyward and the Padres are just as desperate to get rid of Hosmer.

 

What do you think the Padres' motivation is to get rid of Hosmer

[17 Seconds]

From wondering how the Cubs will possibly find room for all of those slam dunk MI prospects to this discussion. It's been quite the half decade.

 

duker still believes

[Outshined_One]

From wondering how the Cubs will possibly find room for all of those slam dunk MI prospects to this discussion. It's been quite the half decade.

 

I'm pretty much at the point of blaming Addison Russell for a good chunk of this team's downfall, both because he was an abusive piece of horsefeathers and also because his production fell off a cliff.

[Backtobanks]

 

Forgot about the 10/5. Was going to say he might move in a situation where we take an even worse contract (more years or more AAV). Do buyouts happen a lot in baseball?

 

He's a great clubhouse presence and his defense is still solid (I think) so its not the worst thing in the world to have him as an extra OF on the roster as long as its clear he is not an everyday or even platoon starter for the next team that attempts to contend.

 

I suggested Heyward for Hosmer with the necessary tweaking (prospects/cash). We're desperate to get rid of Heyward and the Padres are just as desperate to get rid of Hosmer.

 

What do you think the Padres' motivation is to get rid of Hosmer

 

I'm just going by the multiple stories of the Padres trying to find a way to dump Hosmer.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I suggested Heyward for Hosmer with the necessary tweaking (prospects/cash). We're desperate to get rid of Heyward and the Padres are just as desperate to get rid of Hosmer.

 

What do you think the Padres' motivation is to get rid of Hosmer

 

I'm just going by the multiple stories of the Padres trying to find a way to dump Hosmer.

 

Right, did you read why the Padres wanted to dump Hosmer in those stories? Is that satisfied by trading him for Heyward?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

And still not sure why Hoyer decided to go bargain basement with both Jake and Trevor Williams instead of spending basically the same amount of money to get one of Taijuan Walker, Desciafani, or one of the other relatively cheap but legitimate starting pitching options on the market last off season.

...because he wasn't trying to win?

[David]

you think if the vaccine was against giving up 7 first inning runs, jake would get it?

[soccer10k]

Oh well. 2015 Jake was about as dominating as a starting pitcher could be.

 

Last 20 starts in 2015

 

147 IP, 76 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 27 BB, 147 K, 0.86 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, .410 OPS allowed

 

4 CG (3 of which were shutouts)

15 games where he allowed 0 or 1 run, 10 of which were 0 runs.

Shortest start was 6 IP

Only game he lost was when the Cubs got no-hit by Hamels (Cubs lost one other game where he left with the lead)

[KingCubsFan]

 

He's at full 10/5, I highly doubt the places that would trade for him and that he'd go to intersect at all... especially considering I have a feeling the places he'd accept a trade to is pretty close to 0 if not 0.

 

Forgot about the 10/5. Was going to say he might move in a situation where we take an even worse contract (more years or more AAV). Do buyouts happen a lot in baseball?

 

He's a great clubhouse presence and his defense is still solid (I think) so its not the worst thing in the world to have him as an extra OF on the roster as long as its clear he is not an everyday or even platoon starter for the next team that attempts to contend.

 

This is a pretty dire statement, but considering we're on the hook for his contract regardless, and given the lack of any other options, if the goal is competitive in 2022, isn't it prudent to see if he can figure out how to be 2020 Heyward again?

If the Cubs want to contend, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Heyward gets significant at bats and we still have a competent offense. We’ve basically seen how that plays out the past four seasons.

[squally1313]

 

Forgot about the 10/5. Was going to say he might move in a situation where we take an even worse contract (more years or more AAV). Do buyouts happen a lot in baseball?

 

He's a great clubhouse presence and his defense is still solid (I think) so its not the worst thing in the world to have him as an extra OF on the roster as long as its clear he is not an everyday or even platoon starter for the next team that attempts to contend.

 

This is a pretty dire statement, but considering we're on the hook for his contract regardless, and given the lack of any other options, if the goal is competitive in 2022, isn't it prudent to see if he can figure out how to be 2020 Heyward again?

If the Cubs want to contend, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Heyward gets significant at bats and we still have a competent offense. We’ve basically seen how that plays out the past four seasons.

Prior to this year, which is terrible, he's been a 2 win player or better the last three years. When I say 'contend next year', I'm not talking about racing the Dodgers to 100 wins, but having a reasonable chance of winning a very average division. A two win player can definitely be a starter on that kind of team.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

This is a pretty dire statement, but considering we're on the hook for his contract regardless, and given the lack of any other options, if the goal is competitive in 2022, isn't it prudent to see if he can figure out how to be 2020 Heyward again?

If the Cubs want to contend, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Heyward gets significant at bats and we still have a competent offense. We’ve basically seen how that plays out the past four seasons.

Prior to this year, which is terrible, he's been a 2 win player or better the last three years. When I say 'contend next year', I'm not talking about racing the Dodgers to 100 wins, but having a reasonable chance of winning a very average division. A two win player can definitely be a starter on that kind of team.

He was also a 28/29/30 year old scraping together half-assed rebound seasons after back to back 1 WAR seasons. He's already 32 years old and will just be getting worse as time goes by.

[squally1313]

If the Cubs want to contend, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Heyward gets significant at bats and we still have a competent offense. We’ve basically seen how that plays out the past four seasons.

Prior to this year, which is terrible, he's been a 2 win player or better the last three years. When I say 'contend next year', I'm not talking about racing the Dodgers to 100 wins, but having a reasonable chance of winning a very average division. A two win player can definitely be a starter on that kind of team.

He was also a 28/29/30 year old scraping together half-assed rebound seasons after back to back 1 WAR seasons. He's already 32 years old and will just be getting worse as time goes by.

But last year was arguably the best year of his career. Only 50 games, but definitely not a 'half assed rebound season', especially coming off two 2 win seasons. Maybe he's broken, but also maybe these career minor league dudes just suck and it's better to shoot for another Heyward rebound.

[cl smooth]

But last year was arguably the best year of his career.

 

that's a bit of a stretch compared to his braves/cardinals days.

[UMFan83]

Prior to this year, which is terrible, he's been a 2 win player or better the last three years. When I say 'contend next year', I'm not talking about racing the Dodgers to 100 wins, but having a reasonable chance of winning a very average division. A two win player can definitely be a starter on that kind of team.

He was also a 28/29/30 year old scraping together half-assed rebound seasons after back to back 1 WAR seasons. He's already 32 years old and will just be getting worse as time goes by.

But last year was arguably the best year of his career. Only 50 games, but definitely not a 'half assed rebound season', especially coming off two 2 win seasons. Maybe he's broken, but also maybe these career minor league dudes just suck and it's better to shoot for another Heyward rebound.

 

I don't think that we cannot take literally anything away from the 2020 season for anyone. Like for instance, from April 19, 2018 to June 30, 2018 Heyward recorded a 50 game stretch where he his .314/.363/.481/.844. Still finished with a .731 OPS for the season. I get that we cant assume that he would drop off in 2020 and comparing his entire 2020 with a cherry picked best 50 game stretch in another season is not totally fair, but its still a small sample that jumps out as an outlier from the rest of this Cubs career. He also had the highest BABIP as a Cub, and his average EV was at 2016 levels (though his LD% was much higher than any other season in his career).

[squally1313]

But last year was arguably the best year of his career.

 

that's a bit of a stretch compared to his braves/cardinals days.

 

His rookie year, 2010 he had a .393 OBP. From 2011 to 2019, his highest OBP was .359. In 2020 it was .392. Looking at it again, he put up 5.6 fWAR in his one year with the Cardinals (of course) in 154 games, which is slightly better than 1.8 in 50 games last year. And most of his 2020 success was driven by a fantastic walk rate, which should age well.

 

This isn't Jason Heyward vs some actually good free agent going into next year. This is Jason Heyward vs the Schwinder/Deichmann/Ortegas of the world for the next 7 weeks. Of those guys, Heyward has the best shot of contributing next year.

[squally1313]

He was also a 28/29/30 year old scraping together half-assed rebound seasons after back to back 1 WAR seasons. He's already 32 years old and will just be getting worse as time goes by.

But last year was arguably the best year of his career. Only 50 games, but definitely not a 'half assed rebound season', especially coming off two 2 win seasons. Maybe he's broken, but also maybe these career minor league dudes just suck and it's better to shoot for another Heyward rebound.

 

I don't think that we cannot take literally anything away from the 2020 season for anyone. Like for instance, from April 19, 2018 to June 30, 2018 Heyward recorded a 50 game stretch where he his .314/.363/.481/.844. Still finished with a .731 OPS for the season. I get that we cant assume that he would drop off in 2020 and comparing his entire 2020 with a cherry picked best 50 game stretch in another season is not totally fair, but its still a small sample that jumps out as an outlier from the rest of this Cubs career. He also had the highest BABIP as a Cub, and his average EV was at 2016 levels (though his LD% was much higher than any other season in his career).

 

The thing I keep coming back is the walk rate, which he's flashed before (his rookie year/Atlanta years, 2019 was in the right direction). It's not like pitchers in 2020 were scared of his bat and pitching around him, but he was still able to produce an elite walk rate. This year it's a career low, as is his BABIP. To be fair, he's on the wrong side of the aging curve, and his soft hit % is close to a career high, LD% is down, etc. But Heyward came in with sky high expectations, he bombed, and then he turned into a league average starter, performed way above that last year, and way below that this year. We aren't going from this current roster to 8 above average starters next year. But he's not blocking anyone remotely regarded, and eating his contract when your current other options are an assortment of garbage doesn't make any sense to me.

[jersey cubs fan]

This isn't Jason Heyward vs some actually good free agent going into next year. This is Jason Heyward vs the Schwinder/Deichmann/Ortegas of the world for the next 7 weeks. Of those guys, Heyward has the best shot of contributing next year.

Agree there. They don't have any other better options than him.