Trade Deadline Thread (non-Cubs)

[Post Count Padder]

Marlins are getting Jesus Luzardo holy crap

[Bertz]

 

Marte is gonna be a solid barometer for what KB should bring back.

 

 

[cl smooth]

what a steal for the a's

[Tryptamine]

Luzardo's stock is way down, but it's still a good gamble.

[Tryptamine]

Some speculating about the Mets trying to land Gray and Story. That would eliminate one Bryant/Davies home.

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

[toonsterwu]

I wonder what they gave up for him. While it's an entirely different situation for KB, it'll shed some light on whether or not quality assets are being moved. I mean, so far, there's been some solid prospects swapped, but you'd figure that Gallo might get something slightly more interesting than the parts being moved so far.

[Bertz]

I wonder what they gave up for him. While it's an entirely different situation for KB, it'll shed some light on whether or not quality assets are being moved. I mean, so far, there's been some solid prospects swapped, but you'd figure that Gallo might get something slightly more interesting than the parts being moved so far.

 

About a week ago, Jeff Passan wrote this

 

Who's going to cost the most?

 

Barring a last-minute entry into the proceedings -- like the Nationals waving the white flag and Max Scherzer indicating he'll waive his no-trade clause -- it goes a little something like this: Buxton, Gallo, Berrios, Kimbrel, Bryant.

 

I'd guess KB's only a smidge more valuable than Starling Marte. So while the shape may be wildly different, that set the market IMO.

[toonsterwu]

I remember reading that and thinking that I'd pay more for Berrios than Buxton. I get Buxton's raw talent has and always will intrigue, but Berrios is a solid arm that is controllable for another year and has a better health history. Personally, I'd pay more for Berrios than Gallo as well. That said, I get why the Cubs players are positioned where they are.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

This is where the Brewers' bad farm system and I assume even lower payroll than the Cubs really limits them. At least by the standings they should be shopping at the top of the market but Escobar's probably as close as they can get due to a weak farm alone. His power will obviously help the offense but adding a .300 OBP starter to lineup with the 17th best OBP at .315 limits the ceiling. He's also hitting .237/.291/.459 / 98 wRC+ vs RHP. There's plenty of room to move up in wRC+ and wOBA since they're 23rd and 20th overall, maybe he gets hot or something

 

Unless they go out and get Berrios, I'm still a big believer that their still young and/or green pitching staff will burn out a little bit as the year goes on maybe thanks to the mediocre at best offense (by "at best" I mean they're in the 20s from 2019-2021 IIRC). Burnes is doing great, underrated prospect I've said, but also he topped out at 145 innings in 2017 and is going to be 27 in October. Woodruff's already opened his second half walking more hitters (granted in 12 IP), is in uncharted territory with 126 ML IP this year, and topped out at 158 in the minors during 2016 at 23. Peralta's hitting IP territory he hasn't seen since 2017 in the minors and has only thrown 4 IP in the second half...They're good pitchers and all but also the Brewers haven't really asked their starters to eat innings until now when they also really really need it

 

----

 

^^ Agreed. In general I'm already really liking this Gallo move by the Yankees

 

The Brewers have a big enough lead that they are going to be able to back off their starters for a bit by September if they want.

[toonsterwu]

Looks like the Rangers got a quantity of solid quality rather than a top level guy. Duran looks like the top guy, but Pereira seems a lot more intriguing to me. Smith and Hauver are both interesting enough.

 

Is it really that many players for Gallo and King? It's weird that they opted for this massive quantity. It's possible they have some of those guys graded higher, as it looks like many of them are having solid seasons so far.

 

Edit: Based off the Adler tweet, the return is supposedly Duran, Pereira, Trevor Hauver, Glenn Otto, Randy Vazquez, and one more, and Passan puts in Josh Smith.

 

Edit 2: I hate saying this, as I'm of the belief that you just trade and move on, but if that's the return for Gallo with another year of control ... I know I've said for a couple weeks that the return for Bryant is likely equal to the comp pick, but if Gallo had more "value", as most agreed, I'm wondering what the Bryant return possibilities are and whether or not the comp pick and extra pool money might be better.

[Outshined_One]

I know I've said for a couple weeks that the return for Bryant is likely equal to the comp pick, but if Gallo had more "value", as most agreed, I'm wondering what the Bryant return possibilities are and whether or not the comp pick and extra pool money might be better.

 

I'm pretty much there with the Cubs' QO guys. People might get upset if the Cubs fail to trade Bryant/Rizzo/Baez, but it looks like baseball is in a buyers' market for position players at the moment and the Cubs might benefit from just pocketing the extra picks and expanding their pool money in a 2022 draft that apparently will be loaded, rather than taking in a bunch of middling prospects who might end up as as bench jockeys or mediocre relievers.

[toonsterwu]

The CF in that Gallo trade seems like a prospect but overall not promising for a big seller. Maybe the Rays?

 

The raw reports on every single one of the guys all holds some level of intrigue. I mean, Longenhagen slapped a Dan Uggla comp on Duran, which ain't bad. Peak Uggla was fairly good, it just didn't last that long. Josh Smith ... looks like your "classic" offensive middle infielder profile, a guy with some pop, works the count, and makes good contact. Longenhagen has him as a utility guy, which is understandable, but I mean, it's like the Cubs "hopes" on Chase Strumpf. Even at 2nd, it's a good profile. Pereira looks the most intriguing based off scouting reports - a guy with a good blend of hitting ability and power and able to man CF. Hauver's bat sounds like ... you know who he sounds like to me? Sounds like Adam Eaton actually? Even Otto holds some intrigue.

 

That said, Uggla comps are tough because the bat has to be at least usable/average for the power to play. Uggla fell hard and fast after the peak. It's not hard to imagine Smith/Hauver being more utility types/org players, and the minors are littered with young, raw, talented international signings whose bats struggled against tougher competition. Relievers are relievers, so the pitchers aren't much.

 

If we got offered that for Bryant, yeah, I'd probably take that over the comp pick. All of them are playing well this year, at a quick glance. The quantity in of itself would sort of make up for the loss of pool money. It's just, most assumed Gallo had more value so I am admittedly curious now what KB could even bring in.

[Bertz]

If we got offered that for Bryant, yeah, I'd probably take that over the comp pick. All of them are playing well this year, at a quick glance. The quantity in of itself would sort of make up for the loss of pool money. It's just, most assumed Gallo had more value so I am admittedly curious now what KB could even bring in.

 

I think you're grossly overrating the value of a comp pick? For a big market team like the Cubs, it's going to come in at approximately pick #70. At that point you're looking at, by FG methodology, a 40 FV guy (Org Top 30 type). The Rangers in this deal got two guys of that caliber, plus a 45 (Org Top 10 type) and a 50 FV (Overall Top 100).

 

I mean Andrew Chafin netted out well north of a comp pick, KB certainly will.

[toonsterwu]

I don't think I've really overrated the comp pick. I've consistently said that the Cubs should deal as the chances are that the return is far better. As I said above, I'd take that package over a comp pick. That said, there is something to be said for the extra pool money and flexibility that the draft would offer, even at pick 70. Look, any value methodology is going to always give credit towards the return and understandably so, but I think there's a line where the return is justified or not. If we got Deichmann/P whose name is slipping me for Bryant (and it'll obviously be more), yes, that would be more value than a comp pick, but keeping Bryant and getting the 70th pick and more pool money offers flexibility that might just be worthwhile.

 

Maybe I'm drawing a thin line, but I think there's a line where a trade is justified or not. Again, I'd take the Yankees package if it was offered (although my gut feeling says that package will look pretty pedestrian in a year or two ... doesn't mean I can't like the package, though), but I think there's a line where the value may be worth it, but it just wouldn't make sense to make the move.

[mias_tisg]

If the Cubs were a better drafting team like the Dodgers I'd probably take the comp pick but I trust their minor league scouting over their drafting. The picks would likely be wastes.

[NewUserName]

If the Cubs were a better drafting team like the Dodgers I'd probably take the comp pick but I trust their minor league scouting over their drafting. The picks would likely be wastes.

 

Drafting is over rated, player development is under rated

[toonsterwu]

Eh, Kantrovitz is in Year 2 and both have been marked by draft changes. Every Scouting Director has bright spots, and every scouting director has huge misses. It's easy to forget that Wilken has had many good moments running drafts, and I thought McLeod was somewhat over-hyped when he came in but he's had quality drafts as well. The current system being set up the way it is, pool money is the most significant thing now.

 

_____

 

The Gallo trade ended up being Ezequiel Duran, Josh Smith, Trevor Hauver, and Glenn Otto, as Pereira and Vazquez ended up not being involved. My only guess is that, with the positive seasons for these guys, maybe the Rangers had them graded differently internally. It doesn't dramatically change any perspectives on the deal, because as interesting as Pereira sounded, he's still insanely raw. I see that Longenhagen has Duran up at 3 (but I think he was the high man on Duran all along anyways) for the Rangers.

 

It's a solid return and really comes down to buying Duran's (and maybe Smith's) bat a lot. Nothing great defensively, as Smith might be the only one that could play a premium position, so those bats would have to really play. I get the deal, but boy, it sure seems quite risky for 1+ years of Gallo. A part of me wonders if they might really buy Otto as a starter. Will be interesting to see how it turns out.

[toonsterwu]

Well that was sort my intent ... all the guys are interesting but ...

 

I mean, Bertz isn't wrong. Value wise, almost all trades are better than a comp pick. But there has to be enough value to justify.

 

For bryant, the Gallo return, I'd take it. Whether or not we get that will be interesting.

[Bertz]

 

OMG

[UMFan83]

 

OMG

 

must be nice

 

I guess this is kind of what we did when our rebuild started to blossom. The problem is we ended up with guys like Heyward and Quintana and Chatman/Davis rentals instead of Machado, Darvish and Scherzer.

Edited July 29, 2021 by UMFan83

[Derwood]

holy horsefeathers, ha ha ha

[toonsterwu]

 

OMG

 

Now, this is going to be fun to see what the return is. AJ Preller's really banking on a run now. He already got taken once by Mike Rizzo (IMO), so I'm curious what the deal is now.

 

Of course, Scherzer's status lessens Rizzo's leverage.