2021 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[CubinNY]

I think a lot of the Cubs draft strategy or the outcome to be more precise, had to do with where they were in the draft order and how much money they had to spend. In other words, if I'm drafting toward the last third in the first round in a draft year where the talent distribution is flatter and I don't have a lot of money to play with, I'm going to make picks similar to what the they did. I would call this a saftey draft for the Cubs. Edited July 13, 2021 by CubinNY

[craig]

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-2021-draft-day-2-coverage

 

Jordan Bastain article. I love it, because included for each of yesterday's picks are comments from Kantrovicz.

-Kantrovicz is hyperbolic gushy about everybody, so I'm not sure how to filter or to differentiate somebody he's seeing as a $10K senior sign, from somebody they really love.

-Still, I love hearing what they think they saw and why they valued the guys they did.

 

My general view is that decision-maker people aren't dumb. So, I always love to hear some of the reasoning behind choices they make, most especially in the cases where those decisions may seem unexpected. Why did they do that?

 

"[Our scouts] just came back [highlight=yellow]raving about James' bat, his bat speed, his ability to control the zone, his plate coverage[/highlight]. It seemed like every time he made contact, it was loud, hard contact. He's driving the ball out to right-center. He's showing pull power. [highlight=yellow]They just couldn't stop raving about James offensively[/highlight]." -- Kantrovitz

 

"He's got just [highlight=yellow]natural arm-side run and plus movement on his fastball, and his curveball is a hammer[/highlight]. I mean, it's one that's got late bite. The way that it enters the zone, it's a really tough pitch to pick up, and from kind of that same arm slot and arm path from his fastball. It's a pretty lethal combo." -- Kantrovitz

 

"There's not too many guys in the Draft where you can just sort of put your stamp on it and say, 'He's a true center fielder.' And we think Christian's that. And then you complement that with a power bat, and it's just like, 'Wow, that's not the type of talent that we see available in that part of the Draft normally.' Needless to say, we were pretty thrilled when he was there." -- Kantrovitz

 

“Our scouts had him evaluated as [highlight=yellow]one of the better defensive shortstops in the country[/highlight] this year. And then his numbers in probably the premier baseball conference in the country, I think, speaks for itself. He’s got the ability to manage the zone. He definitely can square the ball up more often than most of his peers. And it’s not just sort of a contact approach. He can drive to the gaps, too.” -- Kantrovitz

 

“Despite the competition that he was facing, [highlight=yellow]we have his pitches evaluated as a couple fairly high-caliber professional offerings in that fastball-slider combo.[/highlight] He’s got a changeup. He didn’t really need to use it this spring.” -- Kantrovitz

 

etc. Watkins:

Quotable: “You don’t want to pigeonhole somebody if they have the chance to potentially start or go three times through an order. But I think the trend with him probably suggests that [the bullpen] is probably his best fit for now.” -- Kantrovitz

[JeffH]

Craig, I didn't feel like Kantrovitz was especially gushy. Certainly not Fleitaesque.

[toonsterwu]

I think a lot of the Cubs draft strategy or the outcome to be more precise, had to do with where they were in the draft order and how much money they had to spend. In other words, if I'm drafting toward the last third in the first round in a draft year where the talent distribution is flatter and I don't have a lot of money to play with, I'm going to make picks similar to what the they did. I would call this a saftey draft for the Cubs.

 

To be fair, we keep talking about this being a "safe" draft, but 3 of the first 4 picks are very boom/bust types. They should fill the system, so it's safe in that regards, but other than Wicks, the next 3 are more ceiling than floor guys.

 

But yeah, again, I'm not saying it's a bad draft. I might just be a bit cynical with the benefit of hindsight on many of the recent drafts. To be fair, this is Kantrovitz's 2nd go around with us, so he deserves his time to make his mark.

[toonsterwu]

The comments on Triantos are pretty much what I expect - they are making this pick based on the offensive profile, and I'm fine with that. There's power in that bat - may take some time, but there's pop. I thin the comments on Gray are fair - again, if he goes to college, and all goes well, it's a possible 1st round type profile down the line (you never know obviously, UVA got Vasil and Savino, and Vasil was an 8th rounder and Savino doesn't really look like first round right now and both would've gone high-mid first if they wanted to out of the prep ranks).

 

The notes on Franklin obviously accentuate the positives, and there's definitely positives there. Possible boom/bust, so will have to wait and see how that bat plays. May be an odd comparison at the moment, but he sort of reminds me of Tony Thomas' offensive profile, so we're going to have to wait and see how he does moving up the ladder. I suspect he'll hit in the lower levels, but it probably won't be until South Bend where we'll get a good idea if the hit tool is good enough.

 

As noted, I do like Spence a fair amount. That's probably less cynical than my liking Casey Opitz. I do think Spence is something - what, I don't know though. I mean, it's possible to see a profile where Spence develops into a good top of the order hitter that gets on base, is good defensively.

[toonsterwu]

As of right now, I can buy 3. I think, and I haven't thought about the system too deeply in ages, Wicks is probably top 5. Triantos and Franklin are borderline top 15, I think. I can think of cases for top 15 and cases against, but it's not like our system is that good right now that a prep bat with power potential and is a 2nd round pick should defnitely not be top 15 or a college CF with good tools.

[Outshined_One]

As of right now, I can buy 3. I think, and I haven't thought about the system too deeply in ages, Wicks is probably top 5. Triantos and Franklin are borderline top 15, I think. I can think of cases for top 15 and cases against, but it's not like our system is that good right now that a prep bat with power potential and is a 2nd round pick should defnitely not be top 15 or a college CF with good tools.

 

With Wicks, I like his floor, but I'd put Davis, Preciado, Amaya, and Howard ahead of him in that order since I tend to lean upside when it comes to future value. I'm skeptical on Triantos since the Cubs historically have issues with developing contact-oriented hitters, be it because of scouting or coaching, so he'll probably lurk around my 10-15 until he starts seeing more advanced pitching. I'm even more skeptical with Franklin for similar reasons, although he at least seems like a safe bet to be a useful utility OF.

 

In a vacuum, I like this draft since this system needed a boost and the Cubs did about as well as they could do in the circumstances. However, the more I think about this draft, the more intrigued I become with the pitchers, but the more skeptical I get with the hitters.

[Outshined_One]

11

334

Ziehl, Gage

Penfield HS (NY)

P

R/R

HS SR

 

Perfect Game Profile from 2020:

 

Gage Ziehl is a 2021 RHP/1B, 3B with a 6-0 200 lb. frame from Macedon, NY who attends Penfield. Medium build with good present strength. Big side step into his delivery, up tempo pace, high leg lift, tight 3/4's arm slot, pretty short through the back, can do things to simplify his delivery and enable him to repeat better. Fastball topped out at 92 mph, mostly straight, will need to work on staying on top of his fastball better and working down in the zone. Slider is by far his best pitch, has power and tightness and tunneled very well, can generate swing/miss and weak swings with his slider. Will take off at times on his slider for a deeper curveball with good spin. Some fade to change up. Improving his fastball command will be key to his further development. Good student, verbal commitment to Miami.

 

12

364

Banks, Teo

Permian HS (TX)

OF

R/R

HS SR

 

Perfect Game Profile from 2020:

 

Teo Banks is a 2021 OF/RHP with a 6-3 180 lb. frame from Odessa, TX who attends Permian. Long and lean athletic build with plenty of physical projection remaining. Right handed hitter, hits from a very upright stance with a busy hand load and a leg lift trigger, has quick hands but he tends to cast them out to start his swing, line drive swing plane, hand quickness enables him to turn on the ball when he's on time, has power potential. 6.71 runner, young footwork in the outfield, good arm strength with carry on his throws. Good student, verbal commitment to Tulane.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

11th rounder was ranked 470th by BA:

 

470 Gage Ziehl RHP Penfield (N.Y.)

 

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 213 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Miami

Age At Draft: 18.2

 

Ziehl has a compact, physically-mature build for his age at 6 feet, 213 pounds, and pitches with a fastball that parks in the low 90s and can hit 95 mph, although his body doesn't suggest much more physical projection that would add velocity. He has innate feel to spin the baseball, which shows up on his fastball that rides up in the zone, and especially on his slider—his best pitch. His slider is inconsistent but flashes above-average, with tight rotation in the low 80s, giving him a potential out pitch at the next level. Ziehl has a curveball and a changeup, though he's mainly a fastball/slider pitcher right now.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

12th rounder was ranked 434 by BA:

 

434 Teo Banks OF Permian HS, Odessa, TX

 

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Tulane

Age At Draft: 18.0

 

Close your eyes and imagine what a tooled-up outfielder looks like and chances are you’ll envision someone with Banks’ build. He has broad shoulders, a tapered waist and clearly knows his way around a weight room. Banks was an excellent linebacker for Permian High in Odessa, Texas earlier in his high school career and has a long track record of hitting in high school. He led Permian to the district 2-6A championship in 2021 and was the district MVP. The Tulane signee has a chance to develop into a well-rounded outfielder with plus power potential, above-average speed and a strong arm (he’s been clocked at 91-92 mph off the mound). He’s relatively young for the class as he turns 18 the day before the draft.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

13th rounder is their third consecutive prep: Erian Rodriguez, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy. Prospect Live had him 307th. BA didn't rank him.

 

14th rounder is Frankie Scalzo, RHP, Grand Canyon U.

 

15th rounder is BJ Murray, 3B, Florida Atlantic.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

16th rounder: Zachary Leigh, RHP, Texas State

 

17th rounder: Christian Olivo, SS, Leadership Christian Academy (PR)

 

The Dodgers finally picked their first non-pitcher in the 16th round. The Angels have taken all pitchers all 17 rounds so far.

[CubinNY]

 

The Dodgers finally picked their first non-pitcher in the 16th round. The Angels have taken all pitchers all 17 rounds so far.

:shock:

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Angels drafted all pitchers!

 

[UMFan83]

 

The Dodgers finally picked their first non-pitcher in the 16th round. The Angels have taken all pitchers all 17 rounds so far.

:shock:

 

All 20 rounds:

 

[Outshined_One]

Welp, if you're pot-committed, might as well go for the gusto.

 

ETA: Holy horsefeathers, they only drafted one HS pitcher.

[craig]

6 of the 7 HS picks today by the Cubs only turned 18 at the end of April or later. A lot of young guys. Gray is also a young 18. Lots changed, with Katrowitz, 20 rounds instead of 40, and no Eugene. In past, they usually signed all or almost all of their top-20 picks; but they also never drafted 7 HS'ers in the 11-20 window. Will be curious to see how many of the 3rd-day HS guys they're able to sign; how many of them as $125K guys; and how many are above $125K guys.

 

With all the pitch-lab stuff, I'd love to have a shot to see the system work with the HS pitchers.

[toonsterwu]

I'm mildly curious how the Royals work things out. Mozzicato was assumed as big savings, but Royals fans seem to think it'll take around 3 mil to get Kudrna, which essentially eats away at most of the savings. Jensen, Wilson, and Panzini were all guys with leverage - even if money rumors are off for the three (kept hearing Panzini wanted 7 figures), I'm curious how they piece it all together.

 

____

 

As for the rest of the Cubs draft, looks interesting enough. I'm mildly more curious just how many guys from 11-20 sign with teams, since it's a new format. I've got to think 1 or 2 are just pure flyers, but I'm actually just curious to see how things shake out with the 20 round draft format. I've got to think 11-13 they feel comfortable about, but I guess you never know until the end.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[toonsterwu]

Well, that was quick. I had been mildly thinking that they had felt good enough about Banks in the 12th to nab him, but guess not. Makes me wonder about Ziehl and Rodriguez now. Banks did sound awfully fascinating so it makes sense for him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA: One Underrated 2021 MLB Draft Pick We Like From All 30 Teams

 

Cubs: Parker Chavers, OF — Chavers was draft-eligible a year ago but an arm issue prevented him from playing in the shortened 2020 season and he made it back to Coastal Carolina, where he hit .318/.407/.477 and lowered his strikeout rate to 13%. Chavers is old for the class, but he has a handful of above-average or better tools in his defense, arm strength and raw power and has a chance to stick in center field. (CC)

[craig]

Thanks for Chavers note. Nice.

 

Question: How does the 180-player limit work?

1. Does it include guys who are injured?

2. And does it include guys who are signed but who aren't actually playing in box-score games?

 

In other words, if Gray signs but isn't going to pitch this summer anyway, does he still count against the 180? Or, if he both signs and works out on the backfields, or in the pitch-lab, but does NOT actually pitch in a box-score game, does he still count?

 

In view of drafting Banks at #12 only to have him announce within hours that he's not signing, I'm kinda wondering whether the 180-man limit in any way precludes the Cubs from even wanting to sign all 20 picks? Is there just not even room to sign all those Day 3 picks, so they didn't actually want to sign him anyway? Or did they kinda screw up, and think he might be signable when they probably coulda/shoulda known better?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thanks for Chavers note. Nice.

 

Question: How does the 180-player limit work?

1. Does it include guys who are injured?

2. And does it include guys who are signed but who aren't actually playing in box-score games?

 

In other words, if Gray signs but isn't going to pitch this summer anyway, does he still count against the 180? Or, if he both signs and works out on the backfields, or in the pitch-lab, but does NOT actually pitch in a box-score game, does he still count?

 

In view of drafting Banks at #12 only to have him announce within hours that he's not signing, I'm kinda wondering whether the 180-man limit in any way precludes the Cubs from even wanting to sign all 20 picks? Is there just not even room to sign all those Day 3 picks, so they didn't actually want to sign him anyway? Or did they kinda screw up, and think he might be signable when they probably coulda/shoulda known better?

 

I don’t know all the answers to this but I do know the 180 limit only counts guys on team’s rosters (even if they don’t get into box score games), so the 60-day IL is a way to stash a guy (but not the 7-day IL).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

Thanks for Chavers note. Nice.

 

Question: How does the 180-player limit work?

1. Does it include guys who are injured?

2. And does it include guys who are signed but who aren't actually playing in box-score games?

 

In other words, if Gray signs but isn't going to pitch this summer anyway, does he still count against the 180? Or, if he both signs and works out on the backfields, or in the pitch-lab, but does NOT actually pitch in a box-score game, does he still count?

 

In view of drafting Banks at #12 only to have him announce within hours that he's not signing, I'm kinda wondering whether the 180-man limit in any way precludes the Cubs from even wanting to sign all 20 picks? Is there just not even room to sign all those Day 3 picks, so they didn't actually want to sign him anyway? Or did they kinda screw up, and think he might be signable when they probably coulda/shoulda known better?

 

I don’t know all the answers to this but I do know the 180 limit only counts guys on team’s rosters (even if they don’t get into box score games), so the 60-day IL is a way to stash a guy (but not the 7-day IL).

 

Yeah I saw something about how this might also be part of why the Angels and Dodgers went as heavy on pitching as they did. I don't know the contours of the rules, but loading up on pitchers made it easier to skirt them.