Are we getting Black Monday II? No, but we got a Black QB!!!

[WrigleyField 22]

 

lol I decided it wasn't newsworthy enough....got flashbacks to finding little pieces of info about like brian roberts. i should have kept it, thanks for reposting

uuhhhh yes, that was the endless trade watch I was trying to remember.

[David]

 

are we doing this sports book/betting line thing? let's do it. why not?

[Old Style]

So the Seahawks beat writer is saying Mack & 3 first round picks for Wilson.

[David]

So the Seahawks beat writer is saying Mack & 3 first round picks for Wilson.

 

what beat writer? where'd you see/hear it?

 

is he reporting or speculating?

[Old Style]

So the Seahawks beat writer is saying Mack & 3 first round picks for Wilson.

 

what beat writer? where'd you see/hear it?

 

is he reporting or speculating?

Bob Condotta is his name. He tweeted it as a done deal per his sources. A family member sent me a screenshot. It also said “possibly more” going to Seattle.

[Old Style]

And now that I checked his actual Twitter feed it looks like he’s claiming that was faked. My bad.

[jersey cubs fan]

So the Seahawks beat writer is saying Mack & 3 first round picks for Wilson.

 

what beat writer? where'd you see/hear it?

 

is he reporting or speculating?

Bob Condotta is his name. He tweeted it as a done deal per his sources. A family member sent me a screenshot. It also said “possibly more” going to Seattle.

[Bertz]

Bleacher Nation's Bears content is a significant step down from their Cubs stuff, but they laid out a pretty compelling case that for cap reasons we pretty much can't deal Mack in a Wilson trade. It's basically untenable financially for both sides until after June 1st.

 

IF a Wilson trade happens, its probably gonna be a bunch of picks and one of Nichols/Johnson/Roquan.

[raw]

Bleacher Nation's Bears content is a significant step down from their Cubs stuff, but they laid out a pretty compelling case that for cap reasons we pretty much can't deal Mack in a Wilson trade. It's basically untenable financially for both sides until after June 1st.

 

IF a Wilson trade happens, its probably gonna be a bunch of picks and one of Nichols/Johnson/Roquan.

 

Yeah, it won't be Mack. I've heard Fuller as a possibility. I've also heard speculation that both teams want the trade done (if at all) within the next week because Seattle would like to get a QB that the Bears don't have to give them. And free agency starts next week. Also, the Seahawks don't have a 1st or 3rd round draft pick this year, so they would have time to do draft prep on players they probably haven't even thought to look at with no day 1 pick.

[WrigleyField 22]

Two firsts (2021, 2022) and Smith, get back a 2022 3rd. Is that too light? Is Smith comparable to a 1st rounder in value?

[David]

[raw]

Two firsts (2021, 2022) and Smith, get back a 2022 3rd. Is that too light? Is Smith comparable to a 1st rounder in value?

 

I think in most cases, Smith would NOT have 1st round value. But Seattle is interesting in that they aren't tearing everything down if they trade Wilson. They still want to try to compete. So, Smith could have more value to a team like them over say, Houston who would be in a full rebuild if they get rid of Watson. I still think that deal is too light. I feel like the Bears have to really overpay to get this deal done now.

[WrigleyField 22]

But if they want Foles, that's fine too.

[Bertz]

 

Riddick is buddy buddy with our FO, right?

[David]

 

Riddick is buddy buddy with our FO, right?

 

i always got that impression. at least there seemed to be some sort of connection with nagy.

[Splendid Splinter]

Two firsts (2021, 2022) and Smith, get back a 2022 3rd. Is that too light? Is Smith comparable to a 1st rounder in value?

 

 

I think the only way you're not giving up 3 1sts is either you're also giving up the 2nd the next 2 years along with the 1st and probably more picks OR you're adding something like 1 of Hicks/Fuller, 1 of Nichols/Johnson/Smith, and Foles along with the 2 1st. In those 2 scenarios though, I think you offered enough that they should send something back to the Bears. You wouldn't get anything back with your proposal as it's too light IMO.

 

If I had to guess Smith's trade value, it's probably a mid-late 2nd?

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Riddick is buddy buddy with our FO, right?

 

i always got that impression. at least there seemed to be some sort of connection with nagy.

Worked at least 1 year with Nagy in Philly. Not sure if he's buddy buddy with the FO.

[raw]

 

Riddick is buddy buddy with our FO, right?

 

i always got that impression. at least there seemed to be some sort of connection with nagy.

Worked at least 1 year with Nagy in Philly. Not sure if he's buddy buddy with the FO.

 

Yeah, Riddick and Nagy are said to be pretty good friends. Supposedly talk quite often.

[Brian]

Cairo Santos signed for 5/16

[champaignchris]

Cairo Santos signed for 5/16

 

It only took Pace 5 years to find a field goal kicker. Surely we fans can be patient and give him three or four more years to find a qb.

[David]

 

for those who don't know, this guy has had info before. he seems to be buddies with adam jahns to some extent. not sure what connections he has other than that, but i think the only time he was majorly wrong in the last few years was last summer when he was saying a robinson extension was coming.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Bears will not be signing Cam Newton, he is going back to the Patriots.

[raw]

 

Should see some cuts/restructures over the weekend. It's really interesting because with the cap constraints that every team is facing, you can probably upgrade some decent players while also paying them less money. I've been pro keeping Leno this offseason, but I would approach him about a pay cut first, and if not he's cut. With all the linemen out there, you can probably do better for less than the 11M Leno is due. Hicks may be able to be cut and while not necessarily upgraded, definitely can get production out of a cheaper guy. I'd imagine Fuller gets extended here soon. Whitehair, Jackson and Mack are also potential restructure candidates.

 

Cutting Leno and Graham, full base salary restructure for Whitehair, Jackson and Mack takes you from 14M over the cap to 27M in cap space. That doesn't even include touching Hicks' deal (which gives you an extra 10.5M if cut). You need 19M in space for Wilson (if traded). And you can create more space by restructuring his base salary and extending Robinson. So, getting a starting caliber tackle and some backup depth is very doable but it makes it ugly down the line. You'd probably have to draft a tackle and more depth if you have any picks left. But the Bears can definitely do some things without completely tearing apart the current roster and while adding a top QB.

[ChiCubsFan]

On the OL point, I think at a certain point its fair to question if Wilson is making life harder on the OL. Most analytic minded guys will say that the QB is responsible for a great deal of sack % for example.

 

If its 4 top 1-3 picks over the next 3 drafts... I guess the devil is just in the details. I'm slightly more concerned about net pick loss. I'd part with the 3 firsts if I got a 2nd back, for example, as the difference between say 20 to 50th in the draft is often pretty small. Three 1sts and a second is a lot different that two 1sts and two 3rds.

 

Oh yeah, Wilson makes it much harder on his line. Sacks are actually harder to get now because teams get the ball out so quickly. He holds onto the ball and runs around which can create pressure (rusher can see him, lineman can't, rusher adjusts to QB leaving the pocket while OL trying to protect the pocket).

 

As for the picks, I'm cool with giving up 1sts. I don't want to give up 1sts, and 2nds and 3rds. I mean, you still gotta hit on the picks, but you have to have the picks to hit on. Three 1sts and a 2nd is different from 2 1sts and 2 3rds because of that extra 1st round pick. But I'd also rather give up 3 1sts instead of 2 1sts and 2 2nds in the next 2 years, leaving your first pick in the 80s or later for 2 straight years.

Yea - pretty much in agreement.

 

I look at the Mack deal for instance. Two firsts got the headlines, but it was really less than that with the pick swaps. Now obviously I expect a proven QB to be higher cost than Mack, but he is an older QB too. Taking whatever priors I can to triangulate it, and just using the pick trade chart, the net value should be something like a Number 1 overall pick plus a little extra. Obviously that involves some guesswork with future picks, but assume you price your picks at like 20-25 range.

 

Meant to respond to this the other day.

 

Number 1 overall pick is worth 3000 points.

 

Bears pick #20 is 850 points. Future picks generally lose a round worth of value. That would put a 2022 #20 overall pick at 380 points. Obviously you get nowhere near 3000 points with your 2021, 2022, and 2023 first round picks. Even if you don’t discount the future picks being in the future, 3 firsts in the 20th pick range isn’t enough to get you to #1.

 

Some may argue Russ isn’t worth #1 overall. That would be a good debate, but I’d say his value is at least equal to #1. Either way, 3 firsts doesn’t get it done alone. Roquan and others would have to be involved.

[Bertz]

 

Should see some cuts/restructures over the weekend. It's really interesting because with the cap constraints that every team is facing, you can probably upgrade some decent players while also paying them less money. I've been pro keeping Leno this offseason, but I would approach him about a pay cut first, and if not he's cut. With all the linemen out there, you can probably do better for less than the 11M Leno is due. Hicks may be able to be cut and while not necessarily upgraded, definitely can get production out of a cheaper guy. I'd imagine Fuller gets extended here soon. Whitehair, Jackson and Mack are also potential restructure candidates.

 

Cutting Leno and Graham, full base salary restructure for Whitehair, Jackson and Mack takes you from 14M over the cap to 27M in cap space. That doesn't even include touching Hicks' deal (which gives you an extra 10.5M if cut). You need 19M in space for Wilson (if traded). And you can create more space by restructuring his base salary and extending Robinson. So, getting a starting caliber tackle and some backup depth is very doable but it makes it ugly down the line. You'd probably have to draft a tackle and more depth if you have any picks left. But the Bears can definitely do some things without completely tearing apart the current roster and while adding a top QB.

 

I really wish we could get a resolution on Wilson so I could know what to root for. Like, if we're actually getting him, then yeah let's do every restructure and every cap saving move possible. Because of the league-wide cap issues, we're going to see a ton of quality players take 1 year deals in a good situation and re-enter the market next year. If we've got Wilson, we're a prime spot for those guys. Don't stress about losing depth because like you said we can probably replace guys for less, and maybe even upgrade while doing so.

 

But if we're not getting a star at QB, I have little appetite for pushing current cap pain forward into future seasons. I don't want to make future seasons worse for the sake of putting a slightly better team around Teddy Bridgewater.