2020 Offseason Thread

[Post Count Padder]

Just trying to figure some horsefeathers out. Would we be able to live with trades like this/are these realistic?

 

Contreras to the Phillies for Kingery, Damon Jones and Ranger Suarez

 

Bryant to Nats for Robles, Tim Cate, Mason Denaburg

[Tryptamine]

Just trying to figure some horsefeathers out. Would we be able to live with trades like this/are these realistic?

 

Contreras to the Phillies for Kingery, Damon Jones and Ranger Suarez

 

Bryant to Nats for Robles, Tim Cate, Mason Denaburg

 

You're not getting Robles straight up let alone with Cate and Denaburg. Rutledge and Romero is probably as good as you can hope for. As far as Contreras goes, I still think I'd love Brujan and McClanahan from TB.

[Bertz]

Just trying to figure some horsefeathers out. Would we be able to live with trades like this/are these realistic?

 

Contreras to the Phillies for Kingery, Damon Jones and Ranger Suarez

 

Bryant to Nats for Robles, Tim Cate, Mason Denaburg

 

I think the Contreras trade is much too light and the Bryant trade is much too heavy. IMO this is a good way to think about prospect valuation:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

 

FG's use of future value numbers (e.g. a 45 or a 55) to rate prospects is extremely clunky. But, it's in these situations where it's really helpful, and you see why they do it. In practical terms, this is what FG's values correspond to

 

60 or higher - An elite prospect, usually top 10-15 overall

55 or higher - A top 50 caliber prospect

50 - A top 100 caliber prospect

45 - A team top 10 caliber prospect

40 - A team top 30 caliber prospect

35 - A prospect, but super far away or very low ceiling

 

So with this you can start to build a trade. Bryant's due ~$20M this season, so he's got maybe $5-10M in value? So you'd expect maybe a 45 and 40? Or to use our system as an example, someone else's Cole Roederer and Riley Thompson. Your trade without Robles is probably about right, maybe a smidge light.

 

Contreras is a little harder to gauge, and probably depends on how real you think his framing gains this year are. If you think they're real, he's got something like $50M in value. So a hitter on the border of a 50/55, plus two or three more 45s. To use our system again as an example again: think like Brennen Davis, Adbert Alzolay and Cole Roederer.

[Bertz]

 

This is probably pretty bad news for the players. The White Sox were one of the few teams that looked likely to spend, and now they've filled their two biggest holes for $15M. I guess I could see them getting another OF and pushing Eloy to DH, or getting another SP so that Kopech doesn't have a spot until there's an injury?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/sox_takes/status/1336369251624620035?s=21

[Bertz]

 

This is probably pretty bad news for the players. The White Sox were one of the few teams that looked likely to spend, and now they've filled their two biggest holes for $15M. I guess I could see them getting another OF and pushing Eloy to DH, or getting another SP so that Kopech doesn't have a spot until there's an injury?

 

[Cubswin11]

I liked the Eaton fit for us but $7 mil seems steep in this market and also where his age/performance is at. I wouldn’t be surprised if we were able to add 2 of Alberto, Hernandez, Pillar, Grossman or Profar for not much more than $7 mil combined as the offseason goes on. Adding two of those guys and keeping KB gives us quite a bit of roster/positional versatility and shores up some of the contact issues.

[Derwood]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/rays-rumors-catchers-trade-free-agency.html

 

The trade market ought to feature several other intriguing options. Willson Contreras’ name could emerge as a trade candidate with the Cubs looking to cut costs.

 

The Contreras to Rays fit is one of the most obvious in the sport going back to last year at least, doesn't get much *national* play (good to see it today) but has been big in Rays media for a year+ now

 

Allllls I'm asking for is Margot, Xavier Edwards, Josh Lowe, and Joe Ryan

 

I read that Contreras to the Phillies is more likely, with the Rays doing Rays stuff (i.e. signing some mid-grade catchers on cheap one-year deals)

[Bertz]

[Post Count Padder]

Royals signing Carlos Santana to a two year deal was not something I expected.

[Cubswin11]

Royals signing Carlos Santana to a two year deal was not something I expected.

Santana/Whit/Jorge/Dozier/etc could be a kinda fun offense

[Bertz]

 

It also sounds like McCann is joining whichever they go with. I wonder if this is going to be the opposite of the last few offseasons, where the top guys sign essentially first and we go down the list from there.

[Bertz]

 

Bauer to the Angels, Springer to the Mets, Realmuto back to the Phillies?

[Cubswin11]

Josh Bell cranks 40+ Dongs playing in Yankee stadium/AL East

[Brian]

FREE DA BUM

 

[Backtobanks]

There's also Josh Bell and Taillon to the Yankees stuff. Bell would be a sick addition to that lineup

 

 

As Long as the Pirates are willing to dump salary, how about Mills & Strumph for Musgrove and Frasier.

[Bertz]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

If you have to trade Willson, time to target the Phillies for Abel or Howard.

[Bertz]

 

If you have to trade Willson, time to target the Phillies for Abel or Howard.

 

Yeah, Howard especially would be a perfect centerpiece for a Willson deal. Howard plus Luis Garcia maybe?

[CubinNY]

Josh Bell cranks 40+ Dongs playing in Yankee stadium/AL East

Agree, I really like him.

 

Also, if true, the NL Central should have fecal league stats next year instead of regular stats.

[Named After Maddux]

Josh Bell cranks 40+ Dongs playing in Yankee stadium/AL East

Agree, I really like him.

 

Also, if true, the NL Central should have fecal league stats next year instead of regular stats.

 

Just imagine if they do expanded playoffs again and take two teams from the NL Central.

[Cubswin11]

It’s been awhile since I did mock offseason and I’m bored. So here it goes. This is under the assumption I think we have to keep payroll in the range it is now ($160-170 mil) and can’t add without shedding guys. Also assuming roster sizes stay at 26 and there ends up being a DH in the end.

 

Trade 1: Contreras and Kimbrel to the Phillies for Segura, Spencer Howard and maybe some other minor stuff going either way. Saves around $10 million

 

Trade 2: Bryant to the Mets for Mcneil with some other pieces going either way (we may even need to add a decent prospect or two). Saves about $18-20 mil.

 

Trade 3: Bote and Mills to the Rockies for Jon Gray and prospects. Adds somewhere around $4-7 mil.

 

FA signings: Robbie Grossman, Kevin Pillar, Hanser Alberto, Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Stanek, Cheap backup C, Ian Kennedy, then another bat on a Kipnis/Souza type deal and a SP or two like Desclafani for cheap depth. All this should be able to be done for ~$35 mil on 1-2 year deals. Renfroe/Grossman/Pillar/Alberto aren’t necessarily full time starters but have positional versatility that they’ll play a lot and gets us the contact (not Renfroe but he’s a lefty masher we need) along with Mcneil and Segura the offensive composition is changed pretty drastically. Kennedy can be the closer, Stanek is a lab experiment. So the roster would look something like.

 

Position Players (13):

1. Vic C/1B

2. Backup C

3. Rizzo 1B

4. Segura 2B/SS/3B

5. Javy SS

6. Mcneil 3B/OF

7. Alberto 2B/OF/IF

8. Grossman OF

9. Pillar OF

10. Happ OF

11. Heyward RF

12. Renfroe OF

13. Nico/Cheap Vet FA like Kipnis/Souza

 

Rotation (5):

1. Yu

2. Kyle

3. Gray

4. Howard

5. Adbert

 

Bullpen (8):

1. Kennedy

2. Wick

3. Underwood

4. Adam

5. Stanek

6. Rea

7-8: 2 lefties out of Wieck/Ryan/Osich/Steele/Carraway/etc.

[NOLA]

Interesting quotes from Hoyer on pitching in there:

 

“The way that people look at what a starting pitcher is supposed to do has changed,” Hoyer said. “We see in the playoffs over and over that the third time through the batting order, people are much warier of. As bullpens have gotten better and better, managers are prone to go to the fresh reliever to face that batter than go with the starter.”

 

The Cubs have left the door open to bringing back Lester, who turns 37 in January, after he had a 5.16 ERA in 12 starts in 2020. No substantive conversations have occurred between the Cubs and Lester or his representation yet this winter, but the willingness still seems to be there.

 

"We have done a good job over the last couple of years and suggested ideas and changes to certain pitcher mechanics, and we do as well now as other teams do,” Hoyer said. “In this case, I think Rowan Wick and Jason Adam are good examples to focus on. We did this with Wick trying to develop his curveball and Adam his slider. This will not always work, but we feel that we have the infrastructure in place to try it. We have had some success in areas that gives us confidence in that.”

 

https://www.radio.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-cubs/cubs-need-to-add-pitching-depth-for-present-future

I’d love for BDJ to develop a new offspeed and stay with the Cubs as a solid BOR starter.

[Tryptamine]

 

Ok Angels, time for you to go after Willson. Brandon Marsh +Detmers for Willson and someone in the 15 to 20 range.

[Post Count Padder]

McCann has been good the past two years but a four year deal for a catcher like him seems wild, I dunno. Bodes well for Willy's market I suppose. I assume he wouldn't go until Realmuto is off the market but he should be next.