Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

[Backtobanks]

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

 

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

 

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

 

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

 

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you on not having an actual directive to be under the LT. If there wasn't a directive, Theo wasted this whole offseason by not signing players or trading for players that would have made this team much better. Why would he spend all of this time hinting at trading KB and infuriating fans if he didn't need to?

[Brian]

because if there was an actual directive they would be under the luxury tax now and Bryant would have been traded in an awful trade (see: Red Sox), or someone else would have been moved

 

We'll see, If we're at opening day and they are still over than I'm pretty confident in my post be mostly true.

 

It's not an ideal situation, but for me it's better than what the Red Sox did.

[Bertz]

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

 

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

 

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

 

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

 

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you on not having an actual directive to be under the LT. If there wasn't a directive, Theo wasted this whole offseason by not signing players or trading for players that would have made this team much better. Why would he spend all of this time hinting at trading KB and infuriating fans if he didn't need to?

 

The idea is that PTR is giving Theo $X per year, and not kicking in any extra for penalties/taxes/whatever. So because of the escalating nature of the penalties, Theo's choice is something along the lines of:

 

$208M in 2020 and $250M in 2021

vs.

$220M in 2020 and $210M in 2021

 

The plan has clearly been the former, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're still locked into it if the right opportunity arises.

[Bertz]

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

[ConstableRabbit]

Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

Occam’s Razor would imply that if we think the FO is sharp, if they did do that trade either:

1. They don’t think Nolan is just slightly better moving forward

2. It’s not such a big contract after the Rockies throw in cash

[Deeg]

Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

Occam’s Razor would imply that if we think the FO is sharp, if they did do that trade either:

1. They don’t think Nolan is just slightly better moving forward

2. It’s not such a big contract after the Rockies throw in cash

 

Certainly 2 is part of the equation if it happens. But there's also cost certainty beyond 2021 and getting under the cap this season and resetting the penalties for PTR. There's also the fact that (as usual) people are undervaluing defense. Bryant has slipped to (maybe) average at 3B - Arenado is historically great.

[Gilby]

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

[minnesotacubsfan]

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

 

i hate how Nolan starts to make me feel ok about losing Bryant. Then I think about Bryant providing many many bombs in CO, and I hate it even more

[ConstableRabbit]

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

Is he all of a sudden not going to play a [expletive] of games at Petco and Dodger Stadium and AT&T?

[David]

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

 

much of what he'll gain at coors he'll lose on the road because of the coors breaking ball hangover effect

[David]

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

Is he all of a sudden not going to play a [expletive] of games at Petco and Dodger Stadium and AT&T?

 

and this

[Cubswin11]

Bryant would horsefeathers in Coors. He’s the better offensive player anyways. But in terms of overall value, longer term projection to stay at 3B and a safer floor and be a consistent 4.5-5.5 win guy I think Arenado has firmly established himself as the safer bet there recently. You’re also guaranteed to have a star longer, at a discount, if you trade for him (he’s likely waiving the opt out and the Rockies are taking money back and/or throwing money in). Bryant still has the higher ceiling though.

[Gilby]

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

Is he all of a sudden not going to play a [expletive] of games at Petco and Dodger Stadium and AT&T?

 

Wrigley's shitty to hit in a lot of days and PNC and Busch are giant monstrosities as well.

[Deeg]

I can't imagine the Cubs bite on this without Arenado waiving or amending some of his opt-out flexibility. If he wants out of CO badly enough that's something he should be willing to do.

[champaignchris]

There's defense but there's also Coors. I'll take the over on 1.000 OPS for KB as a Rockie.

 

i hate how Nolan starts to make me feel ok about losing Bryant. Then I think about Bryant providing many many bombs in CO, and I hate it even more

 

I think the whole point for Colorado is to flip Bryant for prospects at the deadline.

 

He has a far easier contract to trade than Arenado, and unlike the Cubs, Colorado won’t necessarily be looking for major league ready prospects.

[Deeg]

He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.

[ChiCubsFan]

Arenado has been over .370 OBP each of the last 3 seasons.

[Backtobanks]

Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

 

Yeah, this deal makes no sense for the Cubs unless there's more players involved. Meanwhile Colorado gets rid of an unhappy player and a horrible contract and gets an equally talented player in return. I thought the whole point of trading Bryant was to save money.

[Sammy Sofa]

We're also talking about an arguably most popular player in a franchise's history

 

This was rightly already called out, but seriously, what the horsefeathers are you smoking.

[Tim]

He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.

Who is more popular in Colorado than Arenado? Or did you read that wrong?

[Tim]

If Colorado is that desperate to move Arenado, they can take Heyward and a couple of prospects back in return and we'll call it even.

[Sammy Sofa]

He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.

Who is more popular in Colorado than Arenado? Or did you read that wrong?

 

I'm assuming he made the same mistake I did; I thought he was talking about Bryant.

[Cubswin11]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

[Backtobanks]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?