Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

[Backtobanks]

If you can't get players of that caliber for one of the best players in baseball, then don't trade him. I was glad to hear the asking price for Contreras "was absurd", and KB's ought to be absurd too. Trading KB is probably going to set the Cubs back two years (at least) unless the return is very good young ML players and not just lottery tickets. If the offers aren't reasonable, then Theo has to get creative by trading our other assets (prospects, Bote, Chatwood, Schwarber, etc.)

 

Bryant may be one of the handful best players in baseball but in overall dollar value and contract situation he's a pretty mediocre asset, not to mention Boras Wormtongue. With the Cubs in cap heck, teams are going to correctly identify any absurd asks as posturing and just wait the Cubs out. Theo will get desperate soon enough and your demands for Robles/Turner will turn into a thank you for Luis Garcia, Joe Ross, and Jackson Rutledge. By all reports teams like the Nats and others really don't want to trade their young, cheap ML talent for Bryant. That's unfortunate but Theo getting creative may end up being taking less than an absurd ask to free up more cap space, using Bryant to free us from the salaries Darvish or Chatwood. If he can pull that off then a Garcia, Ross, and Rutledge return doesn't seem half bad talking Nats #2 prospect, cheap SP, and recent 1st round pick - way better than the Angels did for Cozart

 

You didn't really use Cozart's trade value in a discussion about Bryant's trade value, did you? Also, what does Theo need cap space for if the team is going to be out of contention for the next 2-3 years?

[CubinNY]

I hate this horsefeathering thread.

[Backtobanks]

You didn't really use Cozart's trade value in a discussion about Bryant's trade value, did you? Also, what does Theo need cap space for if the team is going to be out of contention for the next 2-3 years?

 

It's just a rough comparison. Bryant's actually projected to make like $40 million through arb or so over the next two years to Cozart's 1 year and ~$13 million so arguably the Cubs have even more to gain than the Angels did. The cap space offers flexibility over that time frame so the Cubs can reset, maybe even help them recoup some of the money they lost between renovations and launching the network

 

I still don't understand how you compare Cozart (.247/.300/.399/.699 with avg. of 17 HR and 59 RBI) with Bryant (.284/.385/.516/.901 with 32 HR and 92RBI).

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

You didn't really use Cozart's trade value in a discussion about Bryant's trade value, did you? Also, what does Theo need cap space for if the team is going to be out of contention for the next 2-3 years?

 

It's just a rough comparison. Bryant's actually projected to make like $40 million through arb or so over the next two years to Cozart's 1 year and ~$13 million so arguably the Cubs have even more to gain than the Angels did. The cap space offers flexibility over that time frame so the Cubs can reset, maybe even help them recoup some of the money they lost between renovations and launching the network

 

I still don't understand how you compare Cozart (.247/.300/.399/.699 with avg. of 17 HR and 59 RBI) with Bryant (.284/.385/.516/.901 with 32 HR and 92RBI).

Well, you can compare them. You can compare how much better a team is with one of them on it, as opposed to the other...

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I still don't understand how you compare Cozart (.247/.300/.399/.699 with avg. of 17 HR and 59 RBI) with Bryant (.284/.385/.516/.901 with 32 HR and 92RBI).

 

For me the comparison is more general: two depreciating assets at 3B with salaries preventing their respective orgs from getting better. Bryant's salary alone is projected to be just under 10% of the cap and could break that number next year. Cozart will cost $5+ million to roster than Bryant will in 2020, a big factor in what made him easier to move

Yeah, that's the reason why he was "easier to move."

http://www.flowjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/judge-judy-eye-roll.gif

[Deeg]

I have no idea whether Washington could be coerced into dealing Robles for Bryant (I suspect no) but if they are, that's exactly the sort of player we should be targeting in a KB deal. Already a 4 WAR player at 22, already a 20-30 HR/SB type with the potential for more power, and a super-premium defender in center. He's likely to get better and he's already damn good.

 

A glove first CF, that's where like 75% of that 4 WAR comes from, still working out the kinks on offense sounds more like a Contreras ideal piece to me. Still sells Bryant short

 

But we're not talking about a 1-1 deal here. As a main piece you'd realistically be hard pressed to do better.

 

Also - how many hitters are finished products as 22 year-old rookies? Bryant was one, ironically - but what if we'd judged Rizzo or Baez by how they produced in their first full seasons in the bigs?

[Tryptamine]

But we're not talking about a 1-1 deal here. As a main piece you'd realistically be hard pressed to do better.

 

Also - how many hitters are finished products as 22 year-old rookies? Bryant was one, ironically - but what if we'd judged Rizzo or Baez by how they produced in their first full seasons in the bigs?

 

In the sense that everyone behind Robles is going to be dramatically worse, you kinda have to look at it as a 1-1. Robles is more interesting than most names that seem to come up for Bryant, but it's like the 90's White Sox entertaining a Frank Thomas for Mike Cameron trade

 

I'd say most hitters are closer to what they'll be at 22 tbh than not. Robles is one of those that seems more likely than most to improve some at the ML level, but he'll probably never hit like Bryant, Rizzo, or Baez. I think Robles has AS potential overall btw

 

Of course he wont hit like Rizzo or Bryant. If he had that offensive potential to go with his defense, at a premium position, and speed he would be completely untouchable. It's unrealistic to think you can trade Bryant for a younger,cheaper and longer controlled Bryant.

[CubinNY]

I still don't understand how you compare Cozart (.247/.300/.399/.699 with avg. of 17 HR and 59 RBI) with Bryant (.284/.385/.516/.901 with 32 HR and 92RBI).

 

For me the comparison is more general: two depreciating assets at 3B with salaries preventing their respective orgs from getting better. Bryant's salary alone is projected to be just under 10% of the cap and could break that number next year. Cozart will cost $5+ million to roster than Bryant will in 2020, a big factor in what made him easier to move

Would quit horsefeathering talking about a “cap” like it’s a thing. I haven’t put anyone on ignore in several years, but damn .

[Deeg]

Robles was a career .300 hitter in the minors with an ,849 OPS (just as a tossed-off example, Andrew McCutchen was .785). It took Rendon until he was 26 to have a MLB season as good offensively as Robles was at 22. I'm impressed that folks can so confidently proclaim his limited upside.

[Deeg]

Robles was a career .300 hitter in the minors with an ,849 OPS (just as a tossed-off example, Andrew McCutchen was .785).

 

Bryant hit .325/.424/.661 in the minors. If anyone's ceiling is getting sold short between the two it's Bryant

 

What does that have to do with what I said?

[Deeg]

Scroll up for Christ's sake, Man.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Robles was a career .300 hitter in the minors with an ,849 OPS (just as a tossed-off example, Andrew McCutchen was .785). It took Rendon until he was 26 to have a MLB season as good offensively as Robles was at 22. I'm impressed that folks can so confidently proclaim his limited upside.

I would wager that a lot of his milb offense was bolstered by his speed, turning squibblers into infield singles and some bloop doubles. He averaged 81 EV last year, hes horsefeathering weeeeeeak. I believe he benefited quite a bit from the juiced ball last year and wouldn't expect 15+ HR in a 'normal' year.

 

I'm not gonna go gaga over a 4 war season from a 21 year old that's all based on non-offense. Been down that road before. Theres enough for me to believe that hes really not a good hitter and if he doesnt get a lot stronger, I feel his offensive upside is not that great.

[Regular Show]

Robles was a career .300 hitter in the minors with an ,849 OPS (just as a tossed-off example, Andrew McCutchen was .785). It took Rendon until he was 26 to have a MLB season as good offensively as Robles was at 22. I'm impressed that folks can so confidently proclaim his limited upside.

I would wager that a lot of his milb offense was bolstered by his speed, turning squibblers into infield singles and some bloop doubles. He averaged 81 EV last year, hes horsefeathering weeeeeeak. I believe he benefited quite a bit from the juiced ball last year and wouldn't expect 15+ HR in a 'normal' year.

 

I'm not gonna go gaga over a 4 war season from a 21 year old that's all based on non-offense. Been down that road before. Theres enough for me to believe that hes really not a good hitter and if he doesnt get a lot stronger, I feel his offensive upside is not that great.

 

Well, you're wrong. It's pretty dumb to say his offensive upside is "not that great". I haven't talked about Robles in a long time with scouts, but at one point a while back the Nats were higher on him than Juan Soto. That changed pretty fast obviously and Soto is a generational talent. Still, scouts all praised the tools and athleticism and cannon Robles has. I don't know what his ceiling is on offense, but I could see him reaching 5+ WAR All-Star status in a couple years. He's only 22 and should improve.

 

I could like come up with trade packages with the prospective teams needing a 3B, but we don't know how interested those teams are in KB. We know the Nats are interested in KB. We'll see what happens, but if teams are offering shitty trade packages back then I agree we should keep him and move on.

 

All this applies to Willson Contreras too, but I just don't see teams offering enough to make the Cubs consider it and we have 3 years of team control left.

[squally1313]

Was it 100% Soto turning into a generational hitter? Or was some of it Robles putting up essentially below average hitting stats for two years in a row?

[Regular Show]

I don't know what you mean by 2 years in a row?

 

He hit .288/.348/.525 (.874 OPS) in admittedly a very SSS of 66 PAs in 2018. That was good for a 127 OPS+

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In a trade like this you’re gonna have to choose between likely ceiling and how quickly that player can help the MLB team. Robles clearly helps today, and while I would not predict him to become a .370 wOBA guy(or the equivalent that considers his SB), he has the tools and is young enough that it’s not complete fantasy to hope for. To go much higher on that scale you’re getting into guys who haven’t yet proven they won’t collapse in MLB, which is a different downside Robles doesn’t have(at least nearly to that degree).

[We Got The Whole 9]

In a trade like this you’re gonna have to choose between likely ceiling and how quickly that player can help the MLB team. Robles clearly helps today, and while I would not predict him to become a .370 wOBA guy(or the equivalent that considers his SB), he has the tools and is young enough that it’s not complete fantasy to hope for. To go much higher on that scale you’re getting into guys who haven’t yet proven they won’t collapse in MLB, which is a different downside Robles doesn’t have(at least nearly to that degree).

 

I mean if his non-hitting skills continue to grade that high he would likely produce more war in his team control than we would get out of KB for the next 2 years but I'm just not feeling his hitting skill. So it would just be a 1-1 trade if we are fortunate enough to get Robles?

[Tryptamine]

If you could get Robles, its likely that not much more than a lottery ticket comes back with him. Even on the high side I can't imagine much more than Seth Romero.

[toonsterwu]

I have my doubts the Nationals would fork over Victor Robles in any Kris Bryant trade, particularly after what's happened the last two years, with Harper/Rendon leaving. I do think Robles hits more, enough that he isn't a negative offensively. That said, the Nationals are probably content with stopgaps, as talk is they truly love their young positional assets in the system, with some belief that Jeremy de la Rosa could be in the majors in the next year, and with guys like Luis Garcia, Yasel Antuna, and Israel Pineda, to go along with Carter Kieboom.

 

One quick note on Soto vs. Robles (not that it's really a battle) - Nationals were always in love with Soto's hitting ability, but IIRC, he was injured his first year, and Robles was more developed. Robles was looked at as more a 5-tool guy, but pure offensive ability, I think most would say Soto's ceiling was always higher. I recall news articles noting how aggressive the Nationals were in trying to lock up Juan Soto before he was known.

 

Total side note - Nationals are a hard team to make a Bryant package if you are expecting a high level, close to ready talent, or a young major leaguer. If it drops a notch below that for the standard bearer, then I think it's a different game, as there's enough lottery tickets to dream on.

________

 

Without knowing how many years KB has to FA, I still think it's unlikely to expect any sort of "proven" young major leaguer with some upside. I'm more inclined to think a desperate team may fork over a high level prospect (like Alec Bohm) than a Robles type, and even then, I'm not so sure.

 

________

 

Truthfully, my feeling is if we deal Bryant, then we might as well consider tearing it down a bit, regardless of what type of quality Bryant brings back. The "core" going forward would be Contreras/Baez/Hendricks (as Rizzo is getting too old to be considered part of the core to me), and Contreras may be on the move as well.

[squally1313]

I don't know what you mean by 2 years in a row?

 

He hit .288/.348/.525 (.874 OPS) in admittedly a very SSS of 66 PAs in 2018. That was good for a 127 OPS+

 

I was looking at his AAA slash line, .278/.356/.386, which wasn’t super inspiring, though to be fair I figured that was close to a full season of PAs, given that he only had 66 in the pros. Looking again, it was only 182 PAs, so I guess you could give his MLB appearance a little more weight.

[Derwood]

I could see the Nationals coughing up a big deal for Bryant had they lost the World Series (and then lost Rendon).

[Gilby]

If the Braves get Donaldson, I just don't feel like a Bryant trade is possible this offseason.

[Clem Fandango]

If the Braves get Donaldson, I just don't feel like a Bryant trade is possible this offseason.

 

Shucks

 

[imb]

seems kinda obvious to me

 

if the nats sign donaldson, bryant goes to the braves

 

if the braves sign donaldson, bryant goes to the nats

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

seems kinda obvious to me

 

if the nats sign donaldson, bryant goes to the braves

 

if the braves sign donaldson, bryant goes to the nats

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