Offseason Top Prospect Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline released each team’s best non-top-100 prospect: https://www.mlb.com/news/prospects-missed-top-100-list?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Cole Roederer was the Cubs choice, so now we know MLB Pipelines’s top 5 prospects for the Cubs.

 

Cubs: Cole Roederer, OF

Though Roederer drew comparisons to Andrew Benintendi as a California high schooler, he slid to the second round of the 2018 Draft because of an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and his commitment to UCLA. He tried to do too much in his first full pro season, leading to a .224/.319/.365 line in low Class A, but he still can reach his upside as a .300 hitter with 20-25 homers if he lets his power come naturally

[Cubswin11]

Prospects Live had Amaya at 103 in their top 100 after ranking him the top prospect in the system. Hoerner (48), Davis (62), and Marquez (77) all made it

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/2/2/top-100-prospects-for-2020

Yeah that was weird with Amaya. One of the guys there in a tweet or Q&A said in his personal 100 Amaya is 45. Either way with a lot of the lists out, with some growth/health and assuming none are traded off we’re going to have quite a few top 100 prospects over the next 6-18 months as list updates and guys graduate. The system is definitely on the up and up. Wouldn’t be surprised if come mid-season rankings we have a top 7-12 system in baseball.

[Bertz]

[Tim]

Tom will not be happy with AA's placement.

[Bertz]

Tom will not be happy with AA's placement.

 

It's really gotta depend on how much you weigh age relative to league and draft/IFA pedigree. Because most guys who haven't hit since short season ball and without a standout tool wouldn't even get the modest benefit of the doubt he's still getting.

[Cubswin11]

Tom will not be happy with AA's placement.

 

It's really gotta depend on how much you weigh age relative to league and draft/IFA pedigree. Because most guys who haven't hit since short season ball and without a standout tool wouldn't even get the modest benefit of the doubt he's still getting.

Will be interesting to see what Fangraphs says on him when their rankings on us comes out. They’ve consistently have been the highest on him.

[Bertz]

Tom will not be happy with AA's placement.

 

It's really gotta depend on how much you weigh age relative to league and draft/IFA pedigree. Because most guys who haven't hit since short season ball and without a standout tool wouldn't even get the modest benefit of the doubt he's still getting.

Will be interesting to see what Fangraphs says on him when their rankings on us comes out. They’ve consistently have been the highest on him.

 

Eric Longenhagen mentioned in a recent chat that he was going to get revised down, but didn't really say how far. I think it's fitting that he and Little are in the same pod, because they're both guys who are down but if they are killing it come June the bandwagon will be nearly back to full.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm gonna need a citation on Roederer and Andy Weber(?!?) getting a benefit of the doubt that Ademan does not. If Roederer is ahead of Ademan it's a matter of him being on the same path but earlier in his career so there is theoretically time to turn the corner. If that's what benefit of the doubt means, that he's not yet accrued 850+ PA of being unable to hit in full season ball, then I guess that's true.

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

 

The Cubs' system has a really strong 10-20. Much better than you'd expect given their modest farm system ranking. I think the issues are A) How much of the fun stuff is still in A Ball and B) that there's not really an all-world type of guy unless/until we see a longer track record of dominance from Brennen Davis or Brailyn Marquez.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Roederer's arm makes me think moved off CF/Billy McKinney type of future in the field. I mean sure hes gonna get stronger and hopefully that improves along with it but until that time comes, I'm just not that enthused about him. How valuable is he if he cant man CF? I'd imagine not very.

[Named After Maddux]

Roederer's arm makes me think moved off CF/Billy McKinney type of future in the field. I mean sure hes gonna get stronger and hopefully that improves along with it but until that time comes, I'm just not that enthused about him. How valuable is he if he cant man CF? I'd imagine not very.

 

I still think the Benintendi comp fits pretty well here. Fangraphs has Roederer with a 45 arm and Benintendi with a 50. AB is kind of a CF offensive profile playing mostly LF. Benintendi is likely Roederer’s ceiling, but it’s still a valuable one if he can reach it.

 

Roederer is definitely more projection than results at this time and he’s overshadowed by Davis. But Cole did put up a 101 wRC+ At 19 in the MWL so it wasn’t a complete flop. It wouldn’t surprise me if he has a very solid year in Hi A if he doesn’t try to sell out for power like he did last year.

[Bertz]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1. Brailyn Márquez

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brennen Davis

4. Miguel Amaya

5. Chase Strumpf

6. Cole Roederer

7. Ryan Jensen

8. Ethan Hearn

9. Riley Thompson

10. Cory Abbott

 

They dropped a 60 FV on Brailyn. Considering how consistently they rated Hoerner in the top 50 all season, it’s reasonable to expect BA will have two Cubs in their top 50 with Brailyn on the fast track for top 20 midseason if he can stay healthy.

 

BA did a podcast on the Cubs top 10 prospect list, clearly before their top 100 list came out. They're really low on Miguel Amaya, which I disagree with.

 

They mentioned some guys who were considered for the back end of their top 10: Adbert Alzolay, Tyson Miller, Kevin Made and Ronnier Quintero.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects-podcast/

[Bertz]

Three Cubs on the FG top 100 prospects list:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/

 

Hoerner at 46

Davis at 50

Amaya at 65

 

Marquez was also a 50 Future Value guys (meaning top 100 caliber) and slotted in at 114. I'd say this probably tracks closest to my own internal view, probably bumping Nico down a bit and Marquez up a bit.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA ranked the Cubs farm the 22nd best in baseball but they also ranked Cleveland, NYY and Texas ahead of the Cubs which I don't understand.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-organization-talent-rankings/

 

Chicago Cubs

Notes:

 

2019 Midseason: 29 | 2019 Preseason: 29 | 2018: 28 | 2017: 16 | 2016: 20 | 2015: 1 | 2014: 4

 

3 Top 100 prospects: LHP Brailyn Marquez (37), SS/OF Nico Hoerner (40), OF Brennen Davis (94)

 

Skinny: Towering lefty Brailyn Marquez took as big of a jump as any pitcher in the minors and has drawn comparisons to both Aroldis Chapman and David Price. Nico Hoerner got a taste of the big leagues, too. The system still has a ways to go to return to prominence, however.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Also from the Longenhagen chat:

 

Oil of Zolay

1:40

Your rankings suggest you aren't too high on Brailyn Marquez. Do you see any realistic chance he still can develop into a high impact starter (i.e. a good #3 or better)?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:41

The fact that he's on the list at all kind of refutes the notion I'm not high on him. I think it's realistic he becomes what you describe, just not likely.

I think it's really important and useful to look at current big leaguers and work backwards, and there just aren't many big league starters who are built like Marquez at this age, or who have his strike-throwing issues.

[craig]

Thanks, Tom. Much fun to have a system back on the rise, and to have a lot of interesting, new young players.

Don't think we've ever had a top-30 with so many international players. Not sure how many of them will be prospects by the time they reach AA, if ever, but we'll see.

 

If you don't mind, who did they have for 11-14 and 17, to fill out top 20?

I assume Alzolay and Kohl Franklin are in there somewhere, and after liking Ademan in past they probably kept him in top-20 too?

 

Did Jack Patterson make their top-30, and if so any new scouting info or insights on him?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Chicago Cubs

 

Best Depth: Middle Infield

 

While the system as a whole is still in a bit of transition, it is currently stocked with a plethora of (mostly lower-level) middle infielders. Two of its top five prospects—Nico Hoerner (2) and Chase Strumpf (5) project to stick up the middle and should provide plenty of offensive impact. Beyond those two, six more shortstops or second basemen populate the team’s Top 30 Prospects list. That group mostly includes low-level, high-upside players like Pedro Martinez, Kevin Made (19), Rafael Morel (21) and Fabian Pertuz (23) as well as more seasoned players like Aramis Ademan (26) and Zack Short (28).

 

Biggest Weakness: Corner Infield

 

The Cubs are shockingly bereft of corner-infield prospects. Just one, 3B Christopher Morel ranks among the team’s Top 30, and none of the 11 players in the system who hit 10 or more home runs last year plays first base or third base as his primary position.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/biggest-strength-weakness-for-every-mlb-farm-system-entering-2020/#Cubs

 

Names not mentioned by Tom: Pertuz at 23 and Short at 28.

[craig]

Thanks guys. Do they still include Justin Steele? Bryan Smith has him at 15 on his list, despite his horrible numbers last year.

 

To some degree I kinda wonder whether the Cubs shifts in development emphases and new technological resources might make it a little more difficult to track guys, for us as fans. For example, maybe box scores and seasonal stats won't be as reflective of new skills a guy is developing. There was reference to low minors being prioritized towards raising the guys' ceilings, then later putting a focus on using what they have. (Consistency, location, sequencing, tunneling, etc.) I imagine that being more relevant for pitchers, who can revise their delivery, or work on new grips for different pitches and spins, without having immediate consistency.

 

I think some of the "pitch lab" benefits may need some time. Perhaps guys had some opportunity there last spring, but weren't able to implement fully or whatever. Perhaps having some more time, it will help increasingly? I'm thinking maybe of guys like Cam Sanders, or Riley Thompson. They showed some progress; maybe they'll relapse this year or make no further progress. But maybe it suggested some adjustments last year, and now they're more ready to fine-tune and optimize adjustments further? Fun to hope, at any rate.

[Bertz]

Thanks guys. Do they still include Justin Steele? Bryan Smith has him at 15 on his list, despite his horrible numbers last year.

 

To some degree I kinda wonder whether the Cubs shifts in development emphases and new technological resources might make it a little more difficult to track guys, for us as fans. For example, maybe box scores and seasonal stats won't be as reflective of new skills a guy is developing. There was reference to low minors being prioritized towards raising the guys' ceilings, then later putting a focus on using what they have. (Consistency, location, sequencing, tunneling, etc.) I imagine that being more relevant for pitchers, who can revise their delivery, or work on new grips for different pitches and spins, without having immediate consistency.

 

I think some of the "pitch lab" benefits may need some time. Perhaps guys had some opportunity there last spring, but weren't able to implement fully or whatever. Perhaps having some more time, it will help increasingly? I'm thinking maybe of guys like Cam Sanders, or Riley Thompson. They showed some progress; maybe they'll relapse this year or make no further progress. But maybe it suggested some adjustments last year, and now they're more ready to fine-tune and optimize adjustments further? Fun to hope, at any rate.

 

I feel like because there's so much more rigor around PD

now, we actually get more transparency into guys' progress. For instance this article on Brailyn from over the summer:

 

https://theathletic.com/1156624/2019/08/23/how-the-cubs-molded-brailyn-marquez-into-their-best-pitching-prospect-of-the-theo-epstein-era

 

There was also a lot of good info on Tyson Miller when he was wrecking hitters at Tennessee. It might change as this stuff becomes less of a novelty, but I think for the moment we're in a much better place.

 

That being said, there's now going to be an even stronger impulse to think that every hot streak is a breakout. So take the good with the bad.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-top-100-prospects/

 

ZiPS Top 100 prospects:

 

14. Miguel Amaya

38. Brennen Davis

53. Nico Hoerner

58. Cory Abbott

[Bertz]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-top-100-prospects/

 

ZiPS Top 100 prospects:

 

14. Miguel Amaya

38. Brennen Davis

53. Nico Hoerner

58. Cory Abbott

 

Funny what kind of extra credit Amaya gets when park factors get more explicitly into account. Also glad to see continued helium for Abbott. We kinda need him, Alzolay, or Miller to be a guy worth handing a rotation spot to a year from now.

 

Also thought it was funny that he mentions Arismendy Alcantara as the biggest bust in his history doing these lists.

[craig]

I finally saw BA's top 30, and was somewhat surprised/curious.

 

They have Chris Clarke at #14, much to my surprise, and ahead of McAvene. McAvene was drafted a round earlier, has seemingly a big arm and some high-end stuff, and he pitched very well in his brief pro debut. (McAvene was 20K/4BB/12.2IP, encouraging numbers.) Clarke's numbers were excellent, too (26K/4BB/20IP), but I don't recall him getting as extensive BA attention pre or after draft, so I woudn't have expected BA to have heard enough buzz about him to have him leapfrog McAvene.

 

tom or others, what kind of comments did they have about Clarke? After bombing the Lange/Little draft, it would be so awesome if they ended up with a really good draft that produced several successful and significant prospects.

[Post Count Padder]

Yeah so what 2021 rotation as it stands would be Hendricks, Lester, Darvish and two of Mills/Alzolay/Abbot/Miller ?