2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

From July 2018-2019 Almora hit .234/.270/.343 with a 58 wRC+ in ~600 PAs & rated awful defensively. From 2018-2019 he had 830 PAs, 183 guys had 800+ he ranked 175th in wRC+, 166th in OBP and 173rd in WAR.

 

He’s a bad baseball player, there’s no reason to keep him and there isn’t much pedigree/numbers (MLB or MiLB) to fall back on. You can find an upgrade over that even if it isn’t all that good of a player and I’m guessing ~$2 million isn’t nothing to us again this offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

From July 2018-2019 Almora hit .234/.270/.343 with a 58 wRC+ in ~600 PAs & rated awful defensively. From 2018-2019 he had 830 PAs, 183 guys had 800+ he ranked 175th in wRC+, 166th in OBP and 173rd in WAR.

 

He’s a bad baseball player, there’s no reason to keep him and there isn’t much pedigree/numbers (MLB or MiLB) to fall back on. You can find an upgrade over that even if it isn’t all that good of a player and I’m guessing ~$2 million isn’t nothing to us again this offseason.

 

I don’t want Almora back, but to play devil’s advocate, on opening day he had a .350 wOBA v. LHP and a +2 UZR (+9 DRS) in CF. A roster spot is 600k minimum, so while his projected 1.8 number isn’t nothing if money is tight, that <1.5 incremental is a small amount in the grand scheme where you have ~10ish roster spots where you don’t know the exact salary(either acquisition or arb). Ultimately its a decision that’s down the list of things that are important to me, like whether or not Descalso comes back.

[Cubswin11]

From July 2018-2019 Almora hit .234/.270/.343 with a 58 wRC+ in ~600 PAs & rated awful defensively. From 2018-2019 he had 830 PAs, 183 guys had 800+ he ranked 175th in wRC+, 166th in OBP and 173rd in WAR.

 

He’s a bad baseball player, there’s no reason to keep him and there isn’t much pedigree/numbers (MLB or MiLB) to fall back on. You can find an upgrade over that even if it isn’t all that good of a player and I’m guessing ~$2 million isn’t nothing to us again this offseason.

 

I don’t want Almora back, but to play devil’s advocate, on opening day he had a .350 wOBA v. LHP and a +2 UZR (+9 DRS) in CF. A roster spot is 600k minimum, so while his projected 1.8 number isn’t nothing if money is tight, that <1.5 incremental is a small amount in the grand scheme where you have ~10ish roster spots where you don’t know the exact salary(either acquisition or arb). Ultimately its a decision that’s down the list of things that are important to me, like whether or not Descalso comes back.

And now it’s down to .318 and 96 wRC+ vs LHP, +3 DRS, .8 UZR. He horsefeathering sucks and the facts are clear as day. Maybe the money likely ends up not making an overly material difference, but he can’t be taking major league ABs/starts to start the year and ~$2 mil seems like a lot to let a guy go try and figure it out in Iowa when he never really was good to begin with. I’d rather try another guy or two out there, even if they’re castoffs from other teams like even a Keon Broxton or Juan Lagares or whatever. Just try something else because Almora clearly ain’t it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

From July 2018-2019 Almora hit .234/.270/.343 with a 58 wRC+ in ~600 PAs & rated awful defensively. From 2018-2019 he had 830 PAs, 183 guys had 800+ he ranked 175th in wRC+, 166th in OBP and 173rd in WAR.

 

He’s a bad baseball player, there’s no reason to keep him and there isn’t much pedigree/numbers (MLB or MiLB) to fall back on. You can find an upgrade over that even if it isn’t all that good of a player and I’m guessing ~$2 million isn’t nothing to us again this offseason.

 

I don’t want Almora back, but to play devil’s advocate, on opening day he had a .350 wOBA v. LHP and a +2 UZR (+9 DRS) in CF. A roster spot is 600k minimum, so while his projected 1.8 number isn’t nothing if money is tight, that <1.5 incremental is a small amount in the grand scheme where you have ~10ish roster spots where you don’t know the exact salary(either acquisition or arb). Ultimately its a decision that’s down the list of things that are important to me, like whether or not Descalso comes back.

And now it’s down to .318 and 96 wRC+ vs LHP, +3 DRS, .8 UZR. He horsefeathering sucks and the facts are clear as day. Maybe the money likely ends up not making an overly material difference, but he can’t be taking major league ABs/starts to start the year and ~$2 mil seems like a lot to let a guy go try and figure it out in Iowa when he never really was good to begin with. I’d rather try another guy or two out there, even if they’re castoffs from other teams like even a Keon Broxton or Juan Lagares or whatever. Just try something else because Almora clearly ain’t it.

 

The argument for Almora is that his 2019 is an aberration, so the degree that he sucked doesnt make a whole lot of difference. Given they can fake that role already with Happ or even Hoerner and that it’s not too pricey to find a different castoff i don’t want him back, but this is gonna be the last time i make any sort of argument about him because the margins are not big and i don’t care as much as lots of folks seem to about him.

[Named After Maddux]

I’m fine with moving on from Almora as I prefer a trade for Margot to complement our OF, but it wouldn’t be a complete shocker to see him back. I remember conversations about how much Theo, in particular, gravitated to Almora during the run up to the 2012 draft.

 

That being said, I read that as trying to get it out there that they weren’t planning on non-tendering him leading up to the deadline. If a team were convinced he was being NT’d he’d have zero value. Maybe you can convince a team like the Mets to trade a lottery ticket arm or reclamation project.

[Cubswin11]

Still a fan of doing the Q and maybe a Short, Underwood, Almora or whatever throw in type for Pivetta, Hernandez (try and extend to like 3/18 to save some real and AAV $), and maybe a relief pitcher lotto ticket trade I’ve brought up. Especially if we pull off a SP in a Willy trade (Gray, Lamet, some other MLB ready guy).

 

[Cubswin11]

We did the Wick for Vosler trade a year ago today. With the 40-man deadline coming up tomorrow and us having like 8 spots open I wouldn’t be shocked if we pull off a small trade like that today or tomorrow.

[Tryptamine]

I don't think I've seen him mentioned, but shouldn't we be in on Robinson Chirinos if Contreras is dealt? He's 35, probably available on a 1 year deal and coming off a 113wRC+ 2.3fWAR season.

[Cubswin11]

I don't think I've seen him mentioned, but shouldn't we be in on Robinson Chirinos if Contreras is dealt? He's 35, probably available on a 1 year deal and coming off a 113wRC+ 2.3fWAR season.

Absolutely. You’re right he probably only takes a 1 year deal guaranteed with his age, but I’m guessing he might get offers to get more of a full time role elsewhere. He hits lefties really well career 128 wRC+, .367 wOBA, 148 and .389 last year. So he’d be a likely cheap way to address that part of the team that was a weakness last year.

[ConstableRabbit]

I’m not so sure I trust any Astros hitter or pitcher to not fall off a cliff on a different club at this point.

[Cubswin11]

We have a billion 40-man spots open, he might be a worthwhile claim. He had TJ and missed all of 2018 and sucked last year but he was a former highly thought of pitcher and is still only like 27.

 

[jersey cubs fan]

We have a billion 40-man spots open, he might be a worthwhile claim. He had TJ and missed all of 2018 and sucked last year but he was a former highly thought of pitcher and is still only like 27.

 

 

I don't see Theo picking Cotton, like his mother did and his brother did and his sister did. And his daddy died young.

[ConstableRabbit]

We have a billion 40-man spots open, he might be a worthwhile claim. He had TJ and missed all of 2018 and sucked last year but he was a former highly thought of pitcher and is still only like 27.

 

 

I don't see Theo picking Cotton, like his mother did and his brother did and his sister did. And his daddy died young.

His dad may be able to help with Cole though.

[Backtobanks]

I’m not so sure I trust any Astros hitter or pitcher to not fall off a cliff on a different club at this point.

 

I get the Astros reference, but if they go back to a "regular" ball, there might be a bunch of hitters falling off a cliff next year.

[Cubswin11]

He’s a high contact rate guy and can play a few spots, could see us targeting him.

 

[squally1313]

I’m not so sure I trust any Astros hitter or pitcher to not fall off a cliff on a different club at this point.

 

I get the Astros reference, but if they go back to a "regular" ball, there might be a bunch of hitters falling off a cliff next year.

 

That is a much different thing.

[Bertz]

Enough Sarris has a great article on Akiyama and Tsutsugo in the Athletic today. I don't want to crib too much, but Eno translated Akiyama's numbers from Japan last year and got a .298/368/.411 line with a K rate of less than 13%, and compares pretty closely with Adam Eaton and Nick Markakis.

[Cubswin11]

Enough Sarris has a great article on Akiyama and Tsutsugo in the Athletic today. I don't want to crib too much, but Eno translated Akiyama's numbers from Japan last year and got a .298/368/.411 line with a K rate of less than 13%, and compares pretty closely with Adam Eaton and Nick Markakis.

I’ll take that, especially if he can handle CF adequately and also is only going to cost ~$5 mil a year.

[Cubswin11]

Morosi was just in The Score, he implied Gray will be available via trade. It was taking primarily White Sox and their next moves but he seemed to make it pretty clear that Gray can be had.

[Cubswin11]

Segura has 3/45 or so left, they apparently are in on Didi and want to move Kingery back to the IF. Like last year, he still would be a really nice target for us at 2B if they are looking to reshuffle things a bit/move money around. Something around some combo of Q, Bote, Happ and some smaller pieces could be something that makes sense for both sides.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Segura has 3/45 or so left, they apparently are in on Didi and want to move Kingery back to the IF. Like last year, he still would be a really nice target for us at 2B if they are looking to reshuffle things a bit/move money around. Something around some combo of Q, Bote, Happ and some smaller pieces could be something that makes sense for both sides.

 

Segura is an interesting one. In a vacuum I think of several things I like, but in practice since he's not exactly a top of order bat and that contract is non-trivial, I wonder if he's only a good idea in certain contexts. For example, Q and Almora for Segura and say, Seranthony Dominguez, then use Bote to get a live armed SP to go with a volume rotation approach?

[Cubswin11]

Segura has 3/45 or so left, they apparently are in on Didi and want to move Kingery back to the IF. Like last year, he still would be a really nice target for us at 2B if they are looking to reshuffle things a bit/move money around. Something around some combo of Q, Bote, Happ and some smaller pieces could be something that makes sense for both sides.

 

Segura is an interesting one. In a vacuum I think of several things I like, but in practice since he's not exactly a top of order bat and that contract is non-trivial, I wonder if he's only a good idea in certain contexts. For example, Q and Almora for Segura and say, Seranthony Dominguez, then use Bote to get a live armed SP to go with a volume rotation approach?

Yeah I was thinking something like that. Agree Segura isn’t the lead off option but that contact ability hitting 5/6/7 behind the OBP guys and Javy would be nice plus you have to think he’d be a plus defender at 2B/hedge against Nico or allow him to play CF. But yeah, something like Q/Happ or Bote/Almora or minor league throw in for Segura, Dominguez and Pivetta then use the leftover of Happ or Bote or Willy to go get a SP (Gray, Lamet, etc).

 

The good thing too is that there’s really no money added doing these sequences of moves for this year, so there would be money (you’d think) to go back fill some stuff like bullpen, spend more on backup C, add another quality bench player, etc.

[squally1313]

Segura has 3/45 or so left, they apparently are in on Didi and want to move Kingery back to the IF. Like last year, he still would be a really nice target for us at 2B if they are looking to reshuffle things a bit/move money around. Something around some combo of Q, Bote, Happ and some smaller pieces could be something that makes sense for both sides.

 

Segura is an interesting one. In a vacuum I think of several things I like, but in practice since he's not exactly a top of order bat and that contract is non-trivial, I wonder if he's only a good idea in certain contexts. For example, Q and Almora for Segura and say, Seranthony Dominguez, then use Bote to get a live armed SP to go with a volume rotation approach?

 

I know Quintana only has a year left, but I don't see how how Segura at second over Bote/Hoerner, which to me seems marginal at best, makes up for the downgrade of whatever Bote gets you to Quintana plus Dominguez. I guess it depends on where you fall on the hypothetical spectrum of "let's retool and compete every year indefinitely" vs "pretty much all of our good players are hitting free agency and also old in two years, so let's take advantage"

[Cubswin11]

Segura has 3/45 or so left, they apparently are in on Didi and want to move Kingery back to the IF. Like last year, he still would be a really nice target for us at 2B if they are looking to reshuffle things a bit/move money around. Something around some combo of Q, Bote, Happ and some smaller pieces could be something that makes sense for both sides.

 

Segura is an interesting one. In a vacuum I think of several things I like, but in practice since he's not exactly a top of order bat and that contract is non-trivial, I wonder if he's only a good idea in certain contexts. For example, Q and Almora for Segura and say, Seranthony Dominguez, then use Bote to get a live armed SP to go with a volume rotation approach?

 

I know Quintana only has a year left, but I don't see how how Segura at second over Bote/Hoerner, which to me seems marginal at best, makes up for the downgrade of whatever Bote gets you to Quintana plus Dominguez. I guess it depends on where you fall on the hypothetical spectrum of "let's retool and compete every year indefinitely" vs "pretty much all of our good players are hitting free agency and also old in two years, so let's take advantage"

I mean Segura has a 5 win, 4 win, 3.7 win year plus two years comfortably in the 2s. I think he’s an upgrade and makes the team and offense better (probably defense too), especially since the thing he’s good at is something we lack and are looking to add with the contact. Maybe on paper the overall moves in this sequence net you a similar amount of wins but I think it adds more than that with making the offense a little more complete/less 1 dimensional.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Segura has 3/45 or so left, they apparently are in on Didi and want to move Kingery back to the IF. Like last year, he still would be a really nice target for us at 2B if they are looking to reshuffle things a bit/move money around. Something around some combo of Q, Bote, Happ and some smaller pieces could be something that makes sense for both sides.

 

Segura is an interesting one. In a vacuum I think of several things I like, but in practice since he's not exactly a top of order bat and that contract is non-trivial, I wonder if he's only a good idea in certain contexts. For example, Q and Almora for Segura and say, Seranthony Dominguez, then use Bote to get a live armed SP to go with a volume rotation approach?

 

I know Quintana only has a year left, but I don't see how how Segura at second over Bote/Hoerner, which to me seems marginal at best, makes up for the downgrade of whatever Bote gets you to Quintana plus Dominguez. I guess it depends on where you fall on the hypothetical spectrum of "let's retool and compete every year indefinitely" vs "pretty much all of our good players are hitting free agency and also old in two years, so let's take advantage"

 

To me, it'd about transferring certainty from one area to another. On offense the Cubs probably benefit more from closing holes than they do by reaching for peak performance, and vice versa with the pitching staff.