2020 roster

[Sammy Sofa]

 

I totally agree. Rizzo at 32 or 33 making $14 or $15 million per year will be better than paying Harper or Machado $26-$30 million when they're 37 or 38 yrs old.

 

What does the former have to do with the latter.

 

Because most were on board to paying that kind of contract to Harper/Machado.

 

So what? None of that has anything to do with Rizzo.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Like Brett alluded to they ended up being very right to cut bait on Smyly, and this is a similar situation. We haven't seen him since May 2018 and a lot can happen on the road back from TJ surgery.

 

This sucks though, probably have to move "starter with MiLB options" a little further up the offseason wish list.

 

IMO, I don't think it needs to be all that high on the list, assuming that a Top 5 SP is brought in to replace Hamels. Even if you throw out Mills because he lacks options, you still have Chatwood and Alzolay on hand, and if we're getting to 8th starter territory we're either to the 'unreasonable contingency' point or other names have had time to assert themselves(Abbott in particular, maybe Miller).

[Bertz]

 

Like Brett alluded to they ended up being very right to cut bait on Smyly, and this is a similar situation. We haven't seen him since May 2018 and a lot can happen on the road back from TJ surgery.

 

This sucks though, probably have to move "starter with MiLB options" a little further up the offseason wish list.

 

IMO, I don't think it needs to be all that high on the list, assuming that a Top 5 SP is brought in to replace Hamels. Even if you throw out Mills because he lacks options, you still have Chatwood and Alzolay on hand, and if we're getting to 8th starter territory we're either to the 'unreasonable contingency' point or other names have had time to assert themselves(Abbott in particular, maybe Miller).

 

To me, there were two ways to approach the 5th starter spot this offseason: Go get someone established or use the volume approach and allocate resources more towards the other holes on the roster. That's not a choice we've had previously during the Theo era. I realize that the former was always more likely, and that's why this realistically doesn't matter that much, but it still sucks to have that determined before FA even truly starts.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Like Brett alluded to they ended up being very right to cut bait on Smyly, and this is a similar situation. We haven't seen him since May 2018 and a lot can happen on the road back from TJ surgery.

 

This sucks though, probably have to move "starter with MiLB options" a little further up the offseason wish list.

 

IMO, I don't think it needs to be all that high on the list, assuming that a Top 5 SP is brought in to replace Hamels. Even if you throw out Mills because he lacks options, you still have Chatwood and Alzolay on hand, and if we're getting to 8th starter territory we're either to the 'unreasonable contingency' point or other names have had time to assert themselves(Abbott in particular, maybe Miller).

 

To me, there were two ways to approach the 5th starter spot this offseason: Go get someone established or use the volume approach and allocate resources more towards the other holes on the roster. That's not a choice we've had previously during the Theo era. I realize that the former was always more likely, and that's why this realistically doesn't matter that much, but it still sucks to have that determined before FA even truly starts.

 

The upside of going with the volume approach is that it's less expensive resource-wise, especially since you aren't starting from literally 0 in that volume(Chatwood, Alzolay, Mills). If they want to go that way they still can, they just need a small amount more and that's not very expensive compared to Graveman. Not bringing back Graveman doesn't shut the door on that at all, especially since we have very little idea if he's even physically capable of starting MLB games for even part of next year.

[Cubswin11]

I was hoping we’d pick up the option since he would’ve given us really nice depth and he has a minor league option left. I think he would’ve made an intriguing pen guy if they pulled the plug on him as a starter too, sucks we’re too poor that we can’t take a $3 million dollar flyer on a guy like him. Colin Rea is also still around to add to the Mills/Chatwood/Adbert discussion going on as depth pieces as he also has minor league options left, fwiw. Edited November 4, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Brian]

Phelps' Joe Maddon inflated option was also declined

[Backtobanks]

 

What does the former have to do with the latter.

 

Because most were on board to paying that kind of contract to Harper/Machado.

 

So what? None of that has anything to do with Rizzo.

 

There's no evidence that Rizzo won't be a productive player at 32 - 33 years old, so I don't understand why some posters wouldn't want to extend him. The point was that some people thought he wouldn't be worth the money and yet they were willing to throw twice as much to pay Machado/Harper at 36 or 37 years old.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Because most were on board to paying that kind of contract to Harper/Machado.

 

So what? None of that has anything to do with Rizzo.

 

There's no evidence that Rizzo won't be a productive player at 32 - 33 years old, so I don't understand why some posters wouldn't want to extend him. The point was that some people thought he wouldn't be worth the money and yet they were willing to throw twice as much to pay Machado/Harper at 36 or 37 years old.

 

They weren't arguing to only pay Harper or Machado that kind of money at 36-37, or only at 32-33, so it has nothing to do with an argument for or against extended Rizzo.

[Andy]

Phelps' Joe Maddon inflated option was also declined

As was Brandon Morrow's. Enjoy your extra $3M, Brandon.

[Cubswin11]

So that's $4 million between those Graveman, Phelps' buyout, and Morrow's buyout? An inevitable Russell non-tender should make it $7-8...So $195 or so for payroll by the time those Winter meetings open up? I could imagine there's a way to fit a Lindor trade and Cole signing, plus Betts 2021, into that probably

You’d have to move Bryant this year, maybe Q, maybe Chatwood (or a fraction of him) this year and possibly a portion of Heyward next year to make all 3 of those work. Imo, with what we know we likely have to work with and still have room build out the team.

Edited November 4, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Bertz]

So that's $4 million between those Graveman, Phelps' buyout, and Morrow's buyout? An inevitable Russell non-tender should make it $7-8...So $195 or so for payroll by the time those Winter meetings open up? I could imagine there's a way to fit a Lindor trade and Cole signing, plus Betts 2021, into that probably

 

Taking a Russell non-tender as a given and using MLBTR's arb numbers, I have us currently at $184M for the 26 man roster and $211M for the luxury tax. Last year's opening day numbers were ~$200M and ~$230M respectively, and between Castellanos and Kimbrel we added about $10M in-season.

[Cubswin11]

Some good quotes here, he’s intriguing if he can play CF and we’ve “checked in on him” apparently.

 

 

 

Shogo Akiyama, OF, Seibu Lions: Frank Herrmann, the former Indians and Phillies right-hander, faced Akiyama frequently while pitching for the Golden Eagles over the past three seasons. Herrmann told MLB.com in a recent interview that he projects Akiyama as a No. 6 or 7 hitter in a Major League lineup. While Akiyama has played center field in Japan, Herrmann envisions him as a left fielder in MLB due to some regression in his defense over the past several seasons.

 

“He’s a good contact hitter, he has speed and he plays every day,” Herrmann said. “Actually, he plays every inning. He has a record of playing every inning, of every game, for the last five years in a row. That speaks to his work ethic … he’s always very interested in getting better.

 

“I think there’s a way to attack him with velocity, up and in on his hands, but I would’ve said the same thing about Ohtani a few years ago, and he’s plugged up that hole in his swing. Akiyama can make a similar adjustment because he’s so coachable and hardworking. He can handle depth breaking balls very well but struggles a bit more with sharp, short breakers.”

 

Mike Bolsinger, the former Dodgers and current Chiba Lotte Marines right-hander, thought of a comparison for Akiyama while watching the World Series.

 

“He reminds me of Adam Eaton, with his approach,” Bolsinger said of the Nationals right fielder. “He can hit the ball the other way really well. As a pitcher, it’s frustrating to face him. You’re always asking, ‘How did he hit that ball? In the States, that would be a strikeout.’ I’ve seen him hit it off the ground before.”

 

Bolsinger said he’s “100 percent” sure Akiyama will be an everyday player in the Majors. In the end, Akiyama could have a similar profile to that of Nori Aoki, who arrived to the Majors from NPB for his age-30 season and was a valuable contributor and highly regarded teammate over six years in MLB.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So that's $4 million between those Graveman, Phelps' buyout, and Morrow's buyout? An inevitable Russell non-tender should make it $7-8...So $195 or so for payroll by the time those Winter meetings open up? I could imagine there's a way to fit a Lindor trade and Cole signing, plus Betts 2021, into that probably

 

Current LT Payroll + MLBTR's arb estimates is about 209 million for 17 players. Cutting out Russell for being non-tendered and adding in pre-arb salaries for the rest of the active roster is about a wash. That leaves ~30 million in LT payroll for all the changes you're going to make. Possibly less to leave any room for mid-season upgrades. Play it safe and call it 25 million.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is a super liquid roster right now between the talent and the payroll so this is still a great position to open the offseason in. It's not inconceivable that they can dangle guys like Quintana, Bote, maybe Chatwood, if they really got lucky Heyward in the trade market just based on optimistically expected internal improvements from star and better talents like Darvish, Hendricks, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, and Kimbrel

 

BTW $3 million salary cap hit for David Bote in 2020 makes me want to destroy the salary cap by channeling the wrath of a thousand gods. We barely knew thee!

 

It's not great, they have basically zero chance of going after a top of market FA because those guys aren't going to go quickly and they can't afford to wait until that dust settles to use their flexibility on the scraps that remain. It's not horrible either, mostly because MLB has worked very hard to make spending at the top of the FA market less correlated to winning, but we don't have to pretend this is an enviable amount of resources.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's not great, they have basically zero chance of going after a top of market FA because those guys aren't going to go quickly and they can't afford to wait until that dust settles to use their flexibility on the scraps that remain. It's not horrible either, mostly because MLB has worked very hard to make spending at the top of the FA market less correlated to winning, but we don't have to pretend this is an enviable amount of resources.

 

How does this work against the Cubs? I'm all about the scraps that remain on FA this year, who are the Cubs dying to hand out middle tier FA contracts to?

 

The top end of the FA market has been playing an extreme waiting game in recent years to try to wring out every dollar they can. The Cubs, who probably need to make moves to create room for a top end FA to begin with, are not going to wait until late January because the other uses for that money on the trade and FA market will have dwindled. They aren't going to bet the offseason on being the team that gets Cole/Rendon when that also means they have to spend nothing on any other upgrades that are needed.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I still don't get why this works against the Cubs. They're probably not sweating over losing out on (for example) Jake Odorizzi if signing him takes them completely out of the Cole sweepstakes even before you get to

 

Because they need to get better! They can't risk being left with all their payroll flexibility at the end of the offseason and no willing trading partners or quality on the FA market because everyone has already made their deals, because then they will be materially worse than they could be otherwise.

[Sammy Sofa]

Not to mention most of their stars or better players are likely to have better years in 2020 than they did in 2019.

 

Hi, I'd like to introduce you to baseball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Because they need to get better! They can't risk being left with all their payroll flexibility at the end of the offseason and no willing trading partners or quality on the FA market because everyone has already made their deals, because then they will be materially worse than they could be otherwise.

 

Why do they only have to make trades after those big FAs leave the market? Lindor rumors are already all over the place and both the Realmuto and Goldschmidt trades came way before

 

Because there is no reality in which they trade for a high priced star AND sign one in free agency. Make all the trades you want, that move is in your control more than signing a top end FA is. It feels like you're hearing me say 'they aren't going to be able to get anyone good', and what I am saying is more narrow. If you don't make your Lindor or Betts deal by the end of the winter meetings you're still very likely to have quality options. If you wait until it's nearly February to keep your powder dry for Cole and he signs with another team, you are completely screwed because there's no quality on the FA market left and no other teams are going to be making deals of that stature.

[Cubswin11]

Most have been posted individually but here’s all the moves in one tidy tweet

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Because there is no reality in which they trade for a high priced star AND sign one in free agency. Make all the trades you want, that move is in your control more than signing a top end FA is. It feels like you're hearing me say 'they aren't going to be able to get anyone good', and what I am saying is more narrow. If you don't make your Lindor or Betts deal by the end of the winter meetings you're still very likely to have quality options. If you wait until it's nearly February to keep your powder dry for Cole and he signs with another team, you are completely screwed because there's no quality on the FA market left and no other teams are going to be making deals of that stature.

 

No as in zero? While playing with the idea of multiple possibly infinite realities? Surely you jest!

 

I have put zero words in your mouth, definitely make no suggestions you're closing the door on *everyone* good just the best two best players likely or definitely available this offseason. I just don't see how that expected timeline, and I agree the top FAs are going to sign late again because definitelynotcollusion, works against the Cubs in any practical way. The powder isn't a thing anymore, the owner tossed the idea of dry powder for imaginary windows out publicly, so I also also don't get this idea that they have to be screwed because Cole signs in February. Is it based on presumed inactivity? An uninterested trade market? Missing out on their favorite Gregorious/Odorizzi/Puig tier FA?

 

Take the Top 50 Free Agents, and the Top 25 trade targets the Cubs might have an interest in. How many of those players are still going to be on the market in February? Maybe 10? If you're willing to say that the upside of a Cole or a Rendon is worth the risk that you're left with nothing(I don't agree, but that's fine), but that is the choice.

[chopsx9]

 

So what? None of that has anything to do with Rizzo.

 

There's no evidence that Rizzo won't be a productive player at 32 - 33 years old, so I don't understand why some posters wouldn't want to extend him. The point was that some people thought he wouldn't be worth the money and yet they were willing to throw twice as much to pay Machado/Harper at 36 or 37 years old.

 

They weren't arguing to only pay Harper or Machado that kind of money at 36-37, or only at 32-33, so it has nothing to do with an argument for or against extended Rizzo.

 

I think the point is if you were paying machado/harper that kind of money you're much less likely to have picked up Rizzo's option this year. No?

[Sammy Sofa]

 

There's no evidence that Rizzo won't be a productive player at 32 - 33 years old, so I don't understand why some posters wouldn't want to extend him. The point was that some people thought he wouldn't be worth the money and yet they were willing to throw twice as much to pay Machado/Harper at 36 or 37 years old.

 

They weren't arguing to only pay Harper or Machado that kind of money at 36-37, or only at 32-33, so it has nothing to do with an argument for or against extended Rizzo.

 

I think the point is if you were paying machado/harper that kind of money you're much less likely to have picked up Rizzo's option this year. No?

 

Nah, he was just pointlessly trying to throw shade. Rizzo is a steal with those team options; things would have had to have gone south real bad with him for them to not pick it up, regardless of whether or not they had signed either of those guys. The Cubs would have made room elsewhere to keep him if necessary.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Take the Top 50 Free Agents, and the Top 25 trade targets the Cubs might have an interest in. How many of those players are still going to be on the market in February? Maybe 10? If you're willing to say that the upside of a Cole or a Rendon is worth the risk that you're left with nothing(I don't agree, but that's fine), but that is the choice.

 

But why February? There's no reason/s the offseason should play out play out that way - wait until February for Cole, inevitably lose Cole, start thinking about other stuff

 

I'm really confused how you're struggling to grasp the overall point even if you don't agree.

 

- If the last couple years are any indication, Cole and Rendon aren't going to sign until nearly spring training.

- In FA and trade, and at prices high and low, the vast majority of available players will find their 2020 home prior to that point

- The Cubs have to stretch to make Cole/Rendon fit financially

 

That means if the Cubs pursue Cole/Rendon and don't sign them, they'll have hoarded Cole/Rendon resources(leaving very little left for other upgrades) and have basically nothing left to use it on. That's really really really bad! Yes, they can make upgrades that don't carry huge financial or trade costs, but success isn't completely uncorrelated to resources that all offseasons without Cole/Rendon end up in a similar place.

[Post Count Padder]

MLB Trade Rumors has their top 50 free agent predictions out and have us signing just Kyle Gibson and will Harris. Grim.

[Cubswin11]

I have next to no interest in Will Harris. I’d rather Iowa shuttle his spot with Norwood, Underwood types than pay him.