International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

These guys have officially signed per BA:

 

Chicago Cubs | (Signing preview, reports & video)

 

 

Cristian Hernandez, ss, Dominican Republic (scouting report)

Moises Ballesteros, c, Venezuela (scouting report)

Daniel Ferreira, of, Dominican Republic

Carlos Cabrera, lhp, Venezuela

Offerman Hernandez, of, Dominican Republic

Raino Coran, of, Curacao

Carlos Ramos, c, Venezuela

 

First time I’ve heard of Ramos.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiely McDaniel: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30716726/the-next-vlad-jr-juan-soto-names-know-mlb-international-signing-day

 

3. Cristian Hernandez (17), SS, Dominican Republic, Cubs, 45 FV

 

More of the prototypical high-bonus international shortstop, a twitchy, lanky shortstop that will stick at the position. Has plus speed, projects for plus raw power, and a plus arm. The issue is his game performance was poor early, though it ticked up later. Probably has the most upside in the group, but much more hit tool risk than Colmenarez and Diaz.

 

Carlos Colmenarez and Willin Díaz were 1-2.

 

Kiley only ranked his top 10 but had Moises Ballesteros amongst a big group of prospects in a 35+ or 40 FV tier.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hernandez got $3 million, which yeah is awesome and great to get him in but also adds fuel to my thinking that Ed Howard is a cut above the rest in this system

 

Apples to oranges.

 

Hernández was probably 14 or 15 when he agreed to his contract and should have been 16 when he signed (turned 17 last month), Howard was 18.

 

The Cubs had more funds to sign Howard then Hernández: IFA bonus pool for the Cubs this year was $5,348,100 while the draft pool was $7,057,680 with the 5% overage.

 

Hernández signed for the 5th largest IFA bonus while Howard signed for slot value at pick 16.

[Brian]

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

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Best draft day/signing day bowtie in Chicago history since...Joakim.

 

http://img.timeinc.net/time/photoessays/2009/top10_nba_draft_fashion/nba_draft_fashion_noah.jpg

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Apples to oranges.

 

Hernández was probably 14 or 15 when he agreed to his contract and should have been 16 when he signed (turned 17 last month), Howard was 18.

 

The Cubs had more funds to sign Howard then Hernández: IFA bonus pool for the Cubs this year was $5,348,100 while the draft pool was $7,057,680 with the 5% overage.

 

Hernández signed for the 5th largest IFA bonus while Howard signed for slot value at pick 16.

 

I just don't agree on the apples to oranges thing in the context of all this penny pinching during the pandemic, everyone's getting US dollars

 

- It's very likely Hernandez had his bonus revised down at one point or another. The earliest rumors were as high as $3.5.

- While slot value doesn't sound like a big deal in a vacuum, only 8 guys in front of Howard received slot or better and only slightly more than half the first round did altogether (8 in front of Howard, 8 behind him). Basically, it was no small feat to walk away with slot in the 2020 draft especially in the first round. Throw in the 2020 draft being deeper and more well regarded than the 2020 IFA pool and contextually I think Howard gets the edge here

- Relatively, Hernandez's $3 million took up 56% of the IFA pool while Howard's bonus took up 55% of what they spent on the draft. This is advantage Hernandez but 1% and change IMO isn't enough to cover a 25% different in bonuses during pandemic times

 

FYI, while Badler consistently said around $3.5 million, Longenhagen said $3 million back on Feb 21st, pre-Covid financial ramifications.

 

Either way, Hernández got the 4th biggest bonus amongst IFAs and Howard got the 16th biggest (based on your calculation).

 

It's still apples to oranges when the largest IFA pool any team can get is $6,431,000, which is less than the Cubs draft bonus pool (the 19th biggest draft pool).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CKG9_hbF26_/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

Michael Arias, RHP, Dominican Republic

[CubsWin]

Man, every time I see one of the pics of these kids signing, it's such a stark reminder of how young they are. And here I am, some 51 year old Cubs fan/prospect nerd, pinning my hopes on them becoming the next big thing...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

New signee per Badler:

 

Joel Sierra, rhp, Dominican Republic

[chopsx9]

 

BTW since I have no love for that ARod/Machado comparison on Hernandez, really think if he *looked* different but had the same dims no one would make the comp, the player that comes to mind for me on the high end is Josh Donaldson. I still think it's funny that for all the hype he signed for 100K more than Ronnier Quintero, was ranked about the same in his class, and one is an afterthought already

Utilizing the burgeoning field of onomatology I'm afraid the Hernandez signing will turn out to be a bust. Not enough pizzazz. Raino Coran will almost certainly turn out to be the blue chipper of these signings. Moises Ballesteros shows some promise and Joel Sierra comes in third as a dark horse candidate. The signing of Oferman Herandez is mystifying as it is almost always better to have a low contact rate than two last names. I'll bump this again in 4 to 5 years as an educational exercise.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

According to Ben Badler’s Instagram stories, the Cubs have also signed:

 

Pedro Ramírez, SS, Venezuela

Kennedy Delgado, RHP, Venezuela

[CubsWin]

BTW since I have no love for that ARod/Machado comparison on Hernandez, really think if he *looked* different but had the same dims no one would make the comp, the player that comes to mind for me on the high end is Josh Donaldson. I still think it's funny that for all the hype he signed for 100K more than Ronnier Quintero, was ranked about the same in his class, and one is an afterthought already

Wow, I had no idea Quintero was an afterthought. I better step up my game...

[Bertz]

 

I tend to think TINSTAAP applies to catchers as well, but hot damn I hadn't seen it written out like this before.

[CubsWin]

Wow, I had no idea Quintero was an afterthought.

 

In the sense that Hernandez is going to debut a top 5 maybe 10 prospect in the system. Last year Quintero IIRC peaked at 12 with Longenhagen and was 20th for BA. Hernandez is going to have 10+ spots on Quintero on most preseason 2021 rankings. Quintero's going to drop to 20 for MLB.com, already outside the top 20 on Prospects Live, Glaser suggested 14th in 2021 IIRC etc...At least IMO they're much closer to equal based on their bonuses and international rankings and I'd even give the edge to Quintero, only 13 months older and entering his second full year with the org

I think we are both a little starved for data. These are the types of conversations we have when we haven't had a minor league baseball game in a year and a half. I've been jonesing for months now...

 

Just let the kids play, Manfred!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Another signing from Ben Badler:

 

Freddy Montenegro, C, Venezuela

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

OP has been updated with the names of all 16 known Cubs signings.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

 

[craig]

Great stuff, cal, thanks.

 

Here's a link trying to capture that interview: https://www.cubsinsider.com/2021/01/23/cubs-international-director-louie-eljaua-dishes-on-newest-international-free-agent-class/

 

Anybody have a link to the interview itself? I couldn't find one.

 

Ferrera as a Mondesi-type with big exit-velocities is fun.

 

Ballasteros with 1.85-1.95 pop-times is fun, too.

 

The CubsInsider link has a picture of Hernandez from the back; hard to tell with a fuzzy in-swing photo, but he looks more broad-shouldered than I'd expected.

[craig]

Thanks for link, Tom! Great interview, really interesting, really good. That and Dorey interview, two terrific interviews in two days. Fun.

[pitchcs]

I could listen to that guy talk all day

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CKG9_hbF26_/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

 

Michael Arias, RHP, Dominican Republic

 

It’s official per MiLB but he’s listed as a shortstop.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Some new names on MLB.com's Transaction List:

 

RHP Adrian Martínez

LHP Zhiorman Imbriano, Venezuela

RHP David Olivo

[CaliforniaRaisin]

15 New International MLB Signings With Breakout Potential: Daniel Ferreira, OF, Cubs