International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

CaliforniaRaisin · May 18, 2020

Christian is the top IFA on here (the first 9 are draft prospects).

10. Cristian Hernandez, SS, Dominican Republic. Age: 16

I won't pretend to be the world’s foremost-known expert on this season’s J2 class (the 2020 J2 signing date is still yet to be decided, for what it’s worth) when it’s currently darn near impossible to project outcomes for MLB players this summer, but I will say Hernandez has earned average-or-better grades across the board on outlets who have seen the teenager in person. Choosing between Hernandez and Carlos Colmenarez is practically splitting hairs at this point, but I’m giving the former the nod thanks to a swing that generates more natural loft, slightly smoother actions at shortstop and a frame that projects a bit better. In the fantasy world (which is a realm that doesn’t necessarily care about handedness), Hernandez projects as a slightly-less loud version of Robert Puason from last summer’s class. Whenever J2 signing day rolls around, it’s assumed the teenager will ink with the Cubs.

CaliforniaRaisin · May 21, 2020

Mike (Denver): If the top J2 guys (Carlos Colmenarez, Cristian Hernandez) were in this draft, where would they likely be selected in the draft and where would they be in your rankings? Would guys like this be considered as volatile as the HS Pitching demographic?

Carlos Collazo: This is an interesting question for this year’s class specifically, because the shortstop talent isn’t great, particularly on the prep side. I enlisted Ben Badler’s help for this one and after talking with him it sounds like both would both be first-round talents. While I would prefer Howard’s defensive skill, both of their offensive upside is a bit more exciting, IMO. Given their age and the projection you have to do on kids that young they would definitely be towards the more volatile side of the spectrum. None of these guys (including Howard) have been scouted for a while, so they all have some uncertainty.

CaliforniaRaisin · May 23, 2020

Pete: If Carlos Colmenarez and Cristian Hernandez we’re available for the draft where would they likely go? Would this demographic be considered as risky as HS Pitching?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’d go late first at the earliest, probably comfortably in the second round.

Ryan: If the draft included J2 players, how many J2 players would typically go in the 1st round? Would they likely be considered the riskiest demographic due to their age?

Eric A Longenhagen: The best J2 players are in typically in the 45-50 FV range so that means top 5 for the very very best of them, more mid to late rd one for the top of the class in a usual year.

CaliforniaRaisin · June 4, 2020

Ben Badler dropped his Cubs 2020 IFA preview today: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/chicago-cubs-2020-21-international-signing-preview/

He added 3 new smaller names on top of Hernandez and Ballesteros:

Dominican OF Daniel Ferreira

Veneuzelan LHP Carlos Cabrera

Dominican OF Oferman Hernandez

Badler said this IFA class has the chance to be the second best Cubs class ever, behind the 2013 Eloy Jimenez/Gleyber Torres group. He also said this about Hernandez’ prospect status:

He's not necessarily a similar player to Giants shortstop Marco Luciano, but he could follow a similar path as an elite Dominican amateur prospect who has a chance to rocket up our Top 100 list once he gets a year in pro ball.

Cubswin11 · June 4, 2020

Posting for the video. Can definitely see the Machado comp, body wise for him.

CaliforniaRaisin · June 4, 2020

Here are videos of Ferriera:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BmpN1-rnIhw/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

https://www.instagram.com/p/BqJC1orDKwZ/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Offerman Hernandez:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BnZKQA4nioJ/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

CaliforniaRaisin · June 10, 2020

Not that the Cubs have much money left for the upcoming J2, but:

CaliforniaRaisin · June 15, 2020

I’m hoping this is a sign that this year’s J2 is still on and not getting pushed back to January 2021.

CaliforniaRaisin · June 15, 2020

Oops, never mind. Hope this doesn’t hurt anything on the deal with Christian Hernández.

Regular Show · June 15, 2020

Oops, never mind. Hope this doesn’t hurt anything on the deal with Christian Hernandez.

Hahaha, yeah I was pretty sure it was moving to January. Doesn't affect anything and all teams have informed their J2 signees about this.

Kinda annoying, but we all know baseball owners are trying to save cash wherever they can...

EDIT: I shouldn't say it "doesn't affect anything"... That's true from a contract perspective (I believe), but this delayed signing hurts the players and their families. A lot of them come from poor backgrounds and this opportunity is huge for them. They also have to repay, or give a cut of their bonuses to their trainers and agents. This time is very stressful and full of anxiety because some teams occasionally renege on these agreements...

I'm sure having to wait a few more months to sign is very stressful for these players. That definitely sucks.

CaliforniaRaisin · June 16, 2020

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-21-mlb-international-bonus-pools/

The Cubs IFA pool for the period 1/15/21-12/15/21 (formerly 7/2/20-6/15/21) is $5,348,100.

The Cardinals and Pirates will get $5,899,600 and the Brewers and Reds have a pool of $6,431,000.

There are no trades of pool money in this IFA period.

Looks like the 2019 J2 period which was supposed to end yesterday has been extended:

NEW INTERNATIONAL SIGNING PERIOD DATES

Oct. 15, 2020 (5 pm ET): 2019-2020 international signing period ends (previously June 15)

Oct. 15, 2020 (5 pm ET) - Jan. 15, 2021 (9 am ET): Closed period, no international signings permitted

Jan. 15, 2021 (5 pm ET)-Dec. 15, 2021: 2020-21 international signing period (previously July 2, 2020-June 15, 2021).

Named After Maddux · June 16, 2020

[tweet]

[/tweet]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

Regular Show · June 16, 2020

[tweet]

[/tweet]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

Thanks for sharing that article.

Yeah, things can get very messy over there and coming to agreements with 12 or 13 year olds feels pretty gross, but every team does it. We probably came to an agreement with Cristian Hernandez around the same age...

The whole situation sucks and will probably lead to an international draft that will take place in January every year. Eric thinks it will happen in 2022 (after the new CBA is finished and agreed to) and Kiley thinks it will happen in 2023.

The problem with having a draft for international prospects is MLB probably limiting the number of rounds to something really small (5-6) and then UDFAs will be limited in how much they can sign for. Some really small bonus number that isn't fair...

The other problem is order for the draft will be based on how teams finished during the regular season. So a rebuilding team that sucks will get a high pick in the International draft in January and the MLB draft in June, which will supercharge tanking and make the problem even worse. Cubs can still sign very talented IFAs right now, but that goes away once an international draft system is in place.

I know the Players Union was pretty opposed to an international draft last time, but this next CBA round will be an excruciating affair. I could see the players caving on this issue for something they really want (stop to service-time manipulation and delayed FA). We'll see what happens.

It really sucks and there are no good answers for how to deal with this, unfortunately.

Hrubes20 · June 17, 2020

[tweet]

[/tweet]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

Thanks for sharing that article.

Yeah, things can get very messy over there and coming to agreements with 12 or 13 year olds feels pretty gross, but every team does it. We probably came to an agreement with Cristian Hernandez around the same age...

The whole situation sucks and will probably lead to an international draft that will take place in January every year. Eric thinks it will happen in 2022 (after the new CBA is finished and agreed to) and Kiley thinks it will happen in 2023.

The problem with having a draft for international prospects is MLB probably limiting the number of rounds to something really small (5-6) and then UDFAs will be limited in how much they can sign for. Some really small bonus number that isn't fair...

The other problem is order for the draft will be based on how teams finished during the regular season. So a rebuilding team that sucks will get a high pick in the International draft in January and the MLB draft in June, which will supercharge tanking and make the problem even worse. Cubs can still sign very talented IFAs right now, but that goes away once an international draft system is in place.

I know the Players Union was pretty opposed to an international draft last time, but this next CBA round will be an excruciating affair. I could see the players caving on this issue for something they really want (stop to service-time manipulation and delayed FA). We'll see what happens.

It really sucks and there are no good answers for how to deal with this, unfortunately.

I think I saw a proposal where the draft spot in a hypothetical international draft wasn't based entirely on record. I think it was centered around the divisions first. It was something like this:

2021

NL West drafts 1st (Order is based on previous year's record, so Padres would have the 1st pick and the Dodgers the 5th pick)

AL West drafts 2nd

NL Central drafts 3rd

AL Central drafts 4th

NL East drafts 5th

AL East drafts 6th

2022

AL West drafts 1st

NL Central drafts 2nd

AL Central drafts 3rd

NL East drafts 4th

AL East drafts 5th

NL West drafts 6th

2023

NL Central drafts 1st

AL Central drafts 2nd

NL East drafts 3rd

AL East drafts 4th

NL West drafts 5th

AL West drafts 6th

and so on and so on.

It obviously wouldn't eliminate tanking, but it wouldn't provide much additional incentive to do so, since the best you could do is 3-4 spots higher in the international draft.

Regular Show · June 18, 2020

[tweet]

[/tweet]

I can't say I trust MLB to intelligently run an international draft, but I feel like we hear reports similar to this every year (or close to it) and something has to change.

Thanks for sharing that article.

Yeah, things can get very messy over there and coming to agreements with 12 or 13 year olds feels pretty gross, but every team does it. We probably came to an agreement with Cristian Hernandez around the same age...

The whole situation sucks and will probably lead to an international draft that will take place in January every year. Eric thinks it will happen in 2022 (after the new CBA is finished and agreed to) and Kiley thinks it will happen in 2023.

The problem with having a draft for international prospects is MLB probably limiting the number of rounds to something really small (5-6) and then UDFAs will be limited in how much they can sign for. Some really small bonus number that isn't fair...

The other problem is order for the draft will be based on how teams finished during the regular season. So a rebuilding team that sucks will get a high pick in the International draft in January and the MLB draft in June, which will supercharge tanking and make the problem even worse. Cubs can still sign very talented IFAs right now, but that goes away once an international draft system is in place.

I know the Players Union was pretty opposed to an international draft last time, but this next CBA round will be an excruciating affair. I could see the players caving on this issue for something they really want (stop to service-time manipulation and delayed FA). We'll see what happens.

It really sucks and there are no good answers for how to deal with this, unfortunately.

I think I saw a proposal where the draft spot in a hypothetical international draft wasn't based entirely on record. I think it was centered around the divisions first. It was something like this:

2021
NL West drafts 1st (Order is based on previous year's record, so Padres would have the 1st pick and the Dodgers the 5th pick)
AL West drafts 2nd
NL Central drafts 3rd
AL Central drafts 4th
NL East drafts 5th
AL East drafts 6th

2022
AL West drafts 1st
NL Central drafts 2nd
AL Central drafts 3rd
NL East drafts 4th
AL East drafts 5th
NL West drafts 6th

2023
NL Central drafts 1st
AL Central drafts 2nd
NL East drafts 3rd
AL East drafts 4th
NL West drafts 5th
AL West drafts 6th

and so on and so on.

It obviously wouldn't eliminate tanking, but it wouldn't provide much additional incentive to do so, since the best you could do is 3-4 spots higher in the international draft.

I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.

Bertz · June 18, 2020

The purpose of a draft is like 90% salary suppression, 5% competitive balance, and 5% ratings. Given that the MLBPA already agreed to capped salaries for like an omelette bar or some horsefeathers, I have 0 issue with an international draft at this point.

Hrubes20 · June 18, 2020

I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.

I think the complete arbitrariness (if this isn't a word, it is now) is what made it so appealing to the guy who proposed it. I can't remember who threw this out there, but it was one of the national guys. I'm obviously against the international draft as a whole, but when it inevitably happens, I would rather something like this than another draft order based solely on record. Can you imagine the tanking if there was a Harper type prospect going to be available in the draft, as well as a Jasson Dominguez prospect in a IFA draft?

Regular Show · June 18, 2020

I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.

I think the complete arbitrariness (if this isn't a word, it is now) is what made it so appealing to the guy who proposed it. I can't remember who threw this out there, but it was one of the national guys. I'm obviously against the international draft as a whole, but when it inevitably happens, I would rather something like this than another draft order based solely on record. Can you imagine the tanking if there was a Harper type prospect going to be available in the draft, as well as a Jasson Dominguez prospect in a IFA draft?

Arbitrariness is definitely a word lol.

That's why MLB needs to do a draft lottery system with pretty even odds for the bottom 6-8 teams. I mean teams are going to tank, but just don't reward the team that tanks the hardest (like Houston a few years back). Maybe add a clause that if a team picks in the top 3 in the draft then they automatically disqualify for the lottery the next year.

I'm not a fan of the international draft, but what teams are doing these days is really messed up. It makes me pretty upset when a team makes a promise to a kid and his family for big money, and then the team reneges on that handshake agreement when the 12-year old doesn't continue to improve and grow like they expected...

I don't think the Cubs have ever done that (under Theo), but plenty of other teams have.

Hrubes20 · June 19, 2020

I understand that system, but it feels too arbitrary...

Just like with the MLB draft, some years will have a generational talent (Wander Franco) at the very top. Why does a team in the AL Central get to pick first that year hypothetically speaking? Just random luck?

MLB doesn't like trying new, creative things and we still don't have full draft pick trading. We don't have a draft lottery. Owners care more about cost controls than promoting the game...

I doubt the system you're talking about is used for this international draft in a few years. I'm pretty certain it will function like a normal draft. Maybe MLB allows trading of draft picks, but I doubt that.

I think the complete arbitrariness (if this isn't a word, it is now) is what made it so appealing to the guy who proposed it. I can't remember who threw this out there, but it was one of the national guys. I'm obviously against the international draft as a whole, but when it inevitably happens, I would rather something like this than another draft order based solely on record. Can you imagine the tanking if there was a Harper type prospect going to be available in the draft, as well as a Jasson Dominguez prospect in a IFA draft?

Arbitrariness is definitely a word lol.

That's why MLB needs to do a draft lottery system with pretty even odds for the bottom 6-8 teams. I mean teams are going to tank, but just don't reward the team that tanks the hardest (like Houston a few years back). Maybe add a clause that if a team picks in the top 3 in the draft then they automatically disqualify for the lottery the next year.

I'm not a fan of the international draft, but what teams are doing these days is really messed up. It makes me pretty upset when a team makes a promise to a kid and his family for big money, and then the team reneges on that handshake agreement when the 12-year old doesn't continue to improve and grow like they expected...

I don't think the Cubs have ever done that (under Theo), but plenty of other teams have.

A lottery would also be a really good idea, IMO.

Transmogrified Tiger · June 19, 2020

This is at least half playing devil's advocate, but I think you can make the argument that you should order based on record, but reverse the order for non-playoff teams(best non-playoff team drafts #1, worst record drafts 18th). The thinking being:

- Both the current draft and IFA are investments in long term success, a team's outlook for at least the next 2 years has very little to do with their draft pick except in rare circumstances. The team with the worst record in year 1 has a similar ability to improve in year 2 whether they draft 1st or 15th(heck the draft isn't until after the ensuing offseason happens anyway)

- In a world with draft pools(which I'll assume as a practical exercise are here to stay) draft position carries extra meaning because it's not just the difference between drafting 4th and 2nd, it's the difference in the money that can get spread across many players. If you have draft pools, you need to change the incentive to maximize them. By flipping the record order, you force people to make their MLB teams better and more watchable in the short term if they also want to have the maximum chance to make the team better in the long term. Crucially, this is not an either/or financial proposition because higher draft pools are a drop in the bucket financially.

- This has the knock on effect of making MLB free agency more competitive. Teams right now can spend nothing on the MLB team, cycle through cheap roster flotsam to try to unearth an asset or two(think Valbuena and Coghlan from the Cubs rebuild), but remain bad enough to maximize their prospect spending to get a wave of prospects worth supplementing with free agents or high contract trades. If teams are incentivized to make their short term fortunes better in order to maximize their long term futures, then prices rise for that FA lower/middle class that has recently taken a big hit.

- The MLB draft and IFA are still lotteries in their own right so even a team doing their best and still failing miserably can still draft/sign smartly and improve their fortunes. Plenty of valuable and even star players come outside the Top 5 so you aren't resigning a bad team to an indefinite fate of being terrible. Plus they can always just go into Dombrowski mode and use any prospects as currency until they're able to get out of the hole somewhat.

Cubswin11 · June 24, 2020

CaliforniaRaisin · June 24, 2020

“I think when we got our first look at him—and, to be honest, with the comps that are being thrown around—he looks like A-Rod,” said an international scouting director with a team that does not expect to sign Hernandez. “He’s a baby A-Rod.”

...

“You can easily project (his power) to plus. The ball really comes off his bat well. It’s a clean, easy swing with power to the middle of the field,” the international director said. “His body, from the time we first started watching him, to when he committed, to the videos I’ve seen since then, he hasn’t gotten much bigger or stronger.

“That being said, just the way the ball comes off the bat and the way the swing path comes through the zone, it’s really easy to project power. I’d call it plus in the future.”

...

“The lack of projection in the body over a one-to-two-year window, it probably points to him sticking at shortstop. It probably points to him growing a couple of inches, adding on a little weight and looking like a middle infielder more than a third baseman,” the international director said. “I don’t have any concerns about him slowing down or being forced to move to third base.

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”

CubsWin · June 26, 2020

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”

Well, you know, Cristian hasn't met Victor Conte over at BALCO yet, so...

CaliforniaRaisin · July 1, 2020

FYI - Venezuelan prospects like Colmenarez who haven’t signed yet have permission to stay at their future team’s complexes due to safety concerns in their native country.

CaliforniaRaisin · July 6, 2020

International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

Create an account

Sign in

Member Statistics

Prospect News & Highlights

Recent News

Notes & Rumors

Recent Blogs