International Free Agency Thread, 1/15/2021 Class

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Named After Maddux]

Cristian Hernandez shared this photo on Instagram

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Good read on how little success there has been giving big bonuses to J2 pitchers:

 

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At this point, though, other than some of the Cuban players, most of the top international players who are eligible to sign on Jan. 15, 2021 (the new start of the 2020-21 signing period that was delayed from July 2 this year) already know where they're going to sign.

 

One player still showcasing for clubs is 16-year-old Dominican righthander Jarlin Susana, who pitched in a game in front of scouts in Santo Domingo this week. Susana made a loud impression, sitting in the low-to-mid 90s and reaching 96 mph. He's 6-foot-5, 195 pounds with more physical projection remaining, and he paired his fastball with a sharp breaking ball.

 

Mets and Dodgers amongst teams with a high scouting preference after he popped up.

 

Not sure the Cubs have much left for a pop up guy since they have somewhere between $4.2-$5 million already set aside or Hernandez and Ballesteros and teams like the Cardinals and White Sox have a lot left for pop ups and Cuban defectors.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

16-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Pino worked out for scouts this week in the Dominican Republic, and ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Spanish language link) reports that the Athletics and Rays are the favorites to land Pino when the international signing window opens on January 15. The Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox and Padres have also shown interest in Pino, who seems likely to command a bonus of $1MM or more.

 

We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).

[Hrubes20]

16-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Pino worked out for scouts this week in the Dominican Republic, and ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Spanish language link) reports that the Athletics and Rays are the favorites to land Pino when the international signing window opens on January 15. The Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox and Padres have also shown interest in Pino, who seems likely to command a bonus of $1MM or more.

 

We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).

 

Did they make any changes for next year on the amount of space that could be acquired, or is it still up to 60% of the original bonus pool? Certainly not impossible if they fall in love with the kid.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).

 

Did they make any changes for next year on the amount of space that could be acquired, or is it still up to 60% of the original bonus pool? Certainly not impossible if they fall in love with the kid.

 

You can’t trade for space in the 2021 class.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Hrubes20]

 

We only have approximate dollar amounts on the 50 biggest bonuses already agreed upon so this information is incomplete but based on that, it appears the Cubs can’t hang with the 6 other teams. The other 6 all have way more than $1 million in bonus space while the Cubs have approximately $650k-$1 million left (and that’s based on us only knowing Hernandez and Ballesteros’ approximate bonuses and not knowing how much other guys they’re expected to sign like Daniel Ferreira will get).

 

Did they make any changes for next year on the amount of space that could be acquired, or is it still up to 60% of the original bonus pool? Certainly not impossible if they fall in love with the kid.

 

You can’t trade for space in the 2021 class.

 

And I learned something today. I had no idea they took away the ability to trade for IFA space when the signing date was pushed back.

[CubinNY]

 

“I think when we got our first look at him—and, to be honest, with the comps that are being thrown around—he looks like A-Rod,” said an international scouting director with a team that does not expect to sign Hernandez. “He’s a baby A-Rod.”

 

...

 

“You can easily project (his power) to plus. The ball really comes off his bat well. It’s a clean, easy swing with power to the middle of the field,” the international director said. “His body, from the time we first started watching him, to when he committed, to the videos I’ve seen since then, he hasn’t gotten much bigger or stronger.

 

“That being said, just the way the ball comes off the bat and the way the swing path comes through the zone, it’s really easy to project power. I’d call it plus in the future.”

 

...

 

“The lack of projection in the body over a one-to-two-year window, it probably points to him sticking at shortstop. It probably points to him growing a couple of inches, adding on a little weight and looking like a middle infielder more than a third baseman,” the international director said. “I don’t have any concerns about him slowing down or being forced to move to third base.

 

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”

So did the Cubs sign this kid?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

“I think when we got our first look at him—and, to be honest, with the comps that are being thrown around—he looks like A-Rod,” said an international scouting director with a team that does not expect to sign Hernandez. “He’s a baby A-Rod.”

 

...

 

“You can easily project (his power) to plus. The ball really comes off his bat well. It’s a clean, easy swing with power to the middle of the field,” the international director said. “His body, from the time we first started watching him, to when he committed, to the videos I’ve seen since then, he hasn’t gotten much bigger or stronger.

 

“That being said, just the way the ball comes off the bat and the way the swing path comes through the zone, it’s really easy to project power. I’d call it plus in the future.”

 

...

 

“The lack of projection in the body over a one-to-two-year window, it probably points to him sticking at shortstop. It probably points to him growing a couple of inches, adding on a little weight and looking like a middle infielder more than a third baseman,” the international director said. “I don’t have any concerns about him slowing down or being forced to move to third base.

 

“When we were initially projecting him, you obviously throw the A-Rod body comp on him, and you kind of expect him to grow into his body and get a little bit bigger, and that hasn’t happened yet.”

So did the Cubs sign this kid?

 

The signing period begins 1/15/2021.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/oscar-luis-colas-to-petition-for-mlb-free-agency.html

 

Two-way player Oscar Luis Colas, who defected from Cuba in January, has been declared a free agent by his Nippon Professional Baseball team, the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, a source told MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez on Wednesday.

 

Colas will now petition for Major League Baseball free agency, which is the first step to signing with a team. He would then be eligible to sign under international signing guidelines, likely during the period that starts on Jan. 15. The signing period originally was to begin on July 2, 2020, but was moved back.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

This list now includes pro IFA prospects, including ones who won’t be posted or free agents for a few years.

 

Eric Longenhagen continues to be the low man with Christians Hernandez, compared to BA and MLB. He has him ranked 5th with this write-up:

 

Full Report

A high-probability shortstop with a long-limbed, projectable frame, Hernandez is your traditional international amateur who excels in a workout environment. His infield actions are smooth and athletic, his swing has a gorgeous, pronounced finish, and he has the right amount of overt physical projection that may see him mature into the unteachable, star-making Goldilocks Zone where Hernandez stays at short and also has impact power. The components of Hernandez's swing push and pull against one another, as his cut is pretty long but he also has very advanced barrel control. He's able to pull his hands in and get the barrel on inside pitches and he also has good vertical plate coverage. The downward sweeping nature of the swing might dilute Hernandez's game power relative to his projected raw, but the Cubs have had some recent success in tweaking swings like this.

 

Moises Ballesteros didn’t rank in Longenhagen’s top 40 pro and amateur prospects.

 

Here is some of the fallout from not increasing bonuses and not allowing trades:

 

The financial fallout from COVID-19 also caused MLB to keep international signing bonus pool amounts stagnant rather than increase them as they have otherwise always done year-over-year. There was also a moratorium put on trading for international bonus pool space. These changes have thrown a monkey wrench into the best laid plans of this entire corner of the industry. Teams often reach verbal agreements with prospects well in advance of them being eligible to sign, and the players’ bonus amounts are negotiated with both sides anticipating year-over-year increases in pool space, and some are made assuming the team can and will trade for additional pool space to get all of its deals done.

 

Now that can’t happen, and a bunch of teams have either had to completely nuke their agreements with a prospect or two to stay under their hard capped bonus pool amount, or kick the can down the road and ask the player to wait until the next signing period (which, like I said, probably won’t start until January of 2022) to sign for the original amount. As a result, there are some players who thought they were going to sign in July 2020 who now won’t sign until January 2022, or who no longer have a home with a team at a point in the process when most of the available money is already committed to other players.

 

The Cubs are probably close to their cap already with Hernandez and Ballesteros so they probably can’t get sneak in and add additional talent next month. The 2021 IFAs Longenhagen doesn’t have linked to a team right now are: C Jesús Galiz, SS Yeferson Tineo, OF/P Oscar Colas and OF Yoeliqui Cespedes. All could be pushed to 2022 if they can’t find a team soon.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

At this point, though, other than some of the Cuban players, most of the top international players who are eligible to sign on Jan. 15, 2021 (the new start of the 2020-21 signing period that was delayed from July 2 this year) already know where they're going to sign.

 

One player still showcasing for clubs is 16-year-old Dominican righthander Jarlin Susana, who pitched in a game in front of scouts in Santo Domingo this week. Susana made a loud impression, sitting in the low-to-mid 90s and reaching 96 mph. He's 6-foot-5, 195 pounds with more physical projection remaining, and he paired his fastball with a sharp breaking ball.

 

Mets and Dodgers amongst teams with a high scouting preference after he popped up.

 

Not sure the Cubs have much left for a pop up guy since they have somewhere between $4.2-$5 million already set aside or Hernandez and Ballesteros and teams like the Cardinals and White Sox have a lot left for pop ups and Cuban defectors.

 

Jarlin Susana is expected to sign with the Padres for $1.5 million but will have to wait till the 2021-22 signing period because the Padres don't have bonus space.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.mlb.com/news/yoelqui-cespedes-white-sox-deal?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Yoelqui Céspedes, Yoenis’ half brother, is expected to sign with the White Sox for nearly $2 million.

[We Got The Whole 9]

https://www.mlb.com/news/yoelqui-cespedes-white-sox-deal?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Yoelqui Céspedes, Yoenis’ half brother, is expected to sign with the White Sox for nearly $2 million.

Man thats cheap for #1 IFA

 

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.mlb.com/news/yoelqui-cespedes-white-sox-deal?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Yoelqui Céspedes, Yoenis’ half brother, is expected to sign with the White Sox for nearly $2 million.

Man thats cheap for #1 IFA

 

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He's definitely not universally considered the #1 FA. Fangraphs has him ranked 39th (and 28th if you don't consider the players in Asia on their board). BA has him ranked 12th.

 

The FG preview:

 

As you'd expect given his lineage, Cespedes has prodigious physical gifts, including elite arm strength. I do not think he'll hit enough to play a big league role, though. His long, noisy swing causes him to be late on velocity and Cespedes hasn't played or seen live pitching regularly for nearly four years, and when he has played, he's struck out a bunch. The error bar around Cuban players is big because the context in which they're evaluated is often strange, but I'm pessimistic about the bat based on the info I have.

 

Thinking about numerous Cuban prospects over the years (from Puig who surprised positively to Eddy Martinez who surprised negatively), I think the note on the error bar is a pretty valid point.

[We Got The Whole 9]

https://www.mlb.com/news/yoelqui-cespedes-white-sox-deal?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

Yoelqui Céspedes, Yoenis’ half brother, is expected to sign with the White Sox for nearly $2 million.

Man thats cheap for #1 IFA

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

He's definitely not universally considered the #1 FA. Fangraphs has him ranked 39th (and 28th if you don't consider the players in Asia on their board). BA has him ranked 12th.

 

The FG preview:

 

As you'd expect given his lineage, Cespedes has prodigious physical gifts, including elite arm strength. I do not think he'll hit enough to play a big league role, though. His long, noisy swing causes him to be late on velocity and Cespedes hasn't played or seen live pitching regularly for nearly four years, and when he has played, he's struck out a bunch. The error bar around Cuban players is big because the context in which they're evaluated is often strange, but I'm pessimistic about the bat based on the info I have.

 

Thinking about numerous Cuban prospects over the years (from Puig who surprised positively to Eddy Martinez who surprised negatively), I think the note on the error bar is a pretty valid point.

My bad. I read elsewhere that he's the #1 guy. Sorry I haven't been paying all that much attention TBH

 

Thats a lousy profile. 4 years since facing live pitching and trouble with velo as-is. I wonder if there's thoughts of him converting to the mound if the bat falters.

 

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

Man thats cheap for #1 IFA

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

He's definitely not universally considered the #1 FA. Fangraphs has him ranked 39th (and 28th if you don't consider the players in Asia on their board). BA has him ranked 12th.

 

The FG preview:

 

As you'd expect given his lineage, Cespedes has prodigious physical gifts, including elite arm strength. I do not think he'll hit enough to play a big league role, though. His long, noisy swing causes him to be late on velocity and Cespedes hasn't played or seen live pitching regularly for nearly four years, and when he has played, he's struck out a bunch. The error bar around Cuban players is big because the context in which they're evaluated is often strange, but I'm pessimistic about the bat based on the info I have.

 

Thinking about numerous Cuban prospects over the years (from Puig who surprised positively to Eddy Martinez who surprised negatively), I think the note on the error bar is a pretty valid point.

My bad. I read elsewhere that he's the #1 guy. Sorry I haven't been paying all that much attention TBH

 

Thats a lousy profile. 4 years since facing live pitching and trouble with velo as-is. I wonder if there's thoughts of him converting to the mound if the bat falters.

 

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He is MLB Pipeline's #1 guy. Looks like opinions are pretty varied on him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[craig]

....The Cubs have consistently signed guys who performed on an international stage as amateurs going back to Almora (Burl Carraway played for Team USA in Summer 2019 IIRC), Ballesteros is another. ...

 

Tom, what are pros/cons of that? I'm probably missing some, but:

Pros: 1. That's where the best players are, national teams tend to draw the best. 2. You see guys in real games against good players. 3. When other teams have a long scouting familiarity with a good prospect, it may facilitate trading the guy away. (Cubs wouldn't have made Darvish trade if they hadn't already seen and liked Mena and Preciado back from IFA days.).

 

Cons: 1. Cost: If a guy is good on that stage, every other team knows it too. So, no bargain prices there. 2. Scouting value: If everybody else has seen him too, but nobody else thinks he's worth the price you do, maybe they're right and you're wrong? 3. Lesser untapped potential? Guys on national teams often have benefited from strong programs and strong coaching already; and may perhaps have less unused ceiling? (Almora, Ademan, Tseng...)

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ben Badler has linked the Cubs to another smaller IFA signing in tomorrow’s class: Raino Coran, an outfielder from Curaçao.

 

Their names we know from the class that opens tomorrow:

 

SS Christian Hernández, Dominican Republic - around $3.5 million bonus

C Moises Ballesteros, Venezuela - around $1.2 million

OF Daniel Ferreira, Dominican Republic

LHP Carlos Cabrera, Venezuela

OF Oferman Hernández, Dominican Republic

OF Raino Coran, Curaçao

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Only $3 million. Cubs have $2,348,100 left.