2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

There's a stages of grief reaction every time the Cubs reach for these mediocre college arms dozens of spots higher than they're ranked. It goes "Maybe they're smarter than everyone else" to "He must be an underslot pick, they're saving for later" to "They just suck at drafting pitchers."

 

Every time? When's the last time?

 

2017.

 

Not that long ago. To be fair, they didn't exactly reach on the two pitchers they selected that year. Just bad picks in retrospect.

 

That’s not the same.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

2017.

 

Not that long ago. To be fair, they didn't exactly reach on the two pitchers they selected that year. Just bad picks in retrospect.

 

Yeah those are not at all the same. Those two were picked right where they were supposed to, it just didn't work out.

 

Abbot wasn't in anybody's top 100 that I remember, for starters. Little wasn't ranked as high as he was drafted either. Pretty much Lange was the only on who wasn't a reach.

 

Irrespective, their track record with college pitchers is truly grisly. They really need to try another tack.

 

Little was ranked 36th by BA and MLB. Picked 27th. That’s not a big deal at that point in the draft.

[Bertz]

 

2017.

 

Not that long ago. To be fair, they didn't exactly reach on the two pitchers they selected that year. Just bad picks in retrospect.

 

Yeah those are not at all the same. Those two were picked right where they were supposed to, it just didn't work out.

 

Abbot wasn't in anybody's top 100 that I remember, for starters. Little wasn't ranked as high as he was drafted either. Pretty much Lange was the only on who wasn't a reach.

 

Irrespective, their track record with college pitchers is truly grisly. They really need to try another tack.

 

Fair enough on Abbott, but Little was #18 on Keith Law's board. Not at all a reach.

 

And taking a College Pitcher this high *is* trying another tack. The Cubs haven't hit big on college pitching yet, but with the notable exceptions of Lange and Little they've taken the quantity over quality approach. And even the higher value guys they've taken haven't been big time fastball guys like Jensen.

[dfnowak]

32. Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State -- A 6-foot right-hander, Jensen has one of the biggest fastballs in the class, regularly working at 97-99, with a lightning-quick arm, albeit with long arm action and lack of a plus second pitch.

 

from Keith Law's top 100. Given that everyone else has him as a 2nd/3rd rounder I wonder if they're saving some money here

Per PTR’s direction

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Cubs second round pick is 2B Chase Strumpf of UCLA.

 

All second basemen named Chase drafted from UCLA have had potential HOF careers so far.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Strumpf is batting right now on ESPN2...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Strumpf is batting right now on ESPN2...

 

AND HE JUST HIT A 3-RUN SHOT!!!

[Bertz]

Keith Law

 

57. Chase Strumpf, 2B, UCLA -- UCLA should see several players drafted in the top three or four rounds, including Strumpf, who first committed to the Bruins as a high school freshman at JSerra. He's had a down year after a huge sophomore season that saw him hit .363/.475/.633 and might still get him into the sandwich round.

 

MLB.com

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 45 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

 

In 2017, Royce Lewis was the No. 1 overall pick in the Draft as a shortstop out of JSerra Catholic High School in California. Lewis didn't play shortstop until 2017 because he was blocked by Strumpf. Strumpf has since moved to second base at UCLA and, coming off a huge sophomore season that saw him lead the Bruins in a host of offensive categories, started slowly in his junior season but was starting to show the advanced bat that scouts saw the year prior as the Draft approached.

 

It's Strumpf's hit tool that stands out. He can flat out rake with excellent strike zone discipline, showing the ability to barrel up the baseball consistently. While he doesn't have huge raw power, there's some definite thump from the right side of the plate and he can punish mistakes. While he was a shortstop in high school, he doesn't have the arm or speed to play there, but he should be a reliable defender at second base.

 

It's the bat, though, that will get him drafted in the early rounds of the 2019 Draft. He profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman with some power, kind of like a right-handed version of Bruin product Kevin Kramer, who made his big league debut with the Pirates in 2018.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA had Strumpf at 42:

 

42

Chase Strumpf

UCLA 2B

Notes:

 

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 197 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report: A three-year starter at UCLA, Strumpf hit .363 as a sophomore in 2018 and was invited to play for the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team, but he was unable to participate due to injury. He entered this spring considered arguably the top draft prospect in Southern California and hit .284/.422/.461 through the end of the regular season in a solid but unspectacular campaign. The 6-foot-1 second baseman has a quiet setup at the plate and has consistently shown excellent bat-to-ball skills, with an impressive ability to backspin the ball the opposite way to right-center field. He has also displayed a strong knowledge of the strike zone, recording nearly as many walks (87) as strikeouts (106) the last two years. Strumpf is an offensive-minded infielder who can make the routine plays at second base but struggles to make the difficult ones. He has below-average range and arm strength that flashes average but is usually fringy. His offensive tools are strong enough for evaluators to project him as an everyday second baseman even with his defensive shortcomings.

 

Fangraphs had him at 51:

 

TLDR

Strumpf haspretty average tools but he has several years of strong performance in a big conference and plays a premium position.

[NonProfitCow]

The Cubs second round pick is 2B Chase Strumpf of UCLA.

 

All second basemen named Chase drafted from UCLA have had potential HOF careers so far.

Damn. I've been really high on him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fresno State was eliminated just now so the Cubs can sign Jensen right away.

 

Hopefully Strumpf is busy for the next 3+ weeks.

[Regular Show]

BA had Strumpf at 42:

 

42

Chase Strumpf

UCLA 2B

Notes:

 

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 197 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report: A three-year starter at UCLA, Strumpf hit .363 as a sophomore in 2018 and was invited to play for the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team, but he was unable to participate due to injury. He entered this spring considered arguably the top draft prospect in Southern California and hit .284/.422/.461 through the end of the regular season in a solid but unspectacular campaign. The 6-foot-1 second baseman has a quiet setup at the plate and has consistently shown excellent bat-to-ball skills, with an impressive ability to backspin the ball the opposite way to right-center field. He has also displayed a strong knowledge of the strike zone, recording nearly as many walks (87) as strikeouts (106) the last two years. Strumpf is an offensive-minded infielder who can make the routine plays at second base but struggles to make the difficult ones. He has below-average range and arm strength that flashes average but is usually fringy. His offensive tools are strong enough for evaluators to project him as an everyday second baseman even with his defensive shortcomings.

 

Fangraphs had him at 51:

 

TLDR

Strumpf has pretty average tools but he has several years of strong performance in a big conference and plays a premium position.

 

I'm glad Chase Strumpf was still there in the second round and I'm kinda surprised. I thought he'd be gone by the time the Cubs' second pick came up. Solid hitter who would've gone much higher after his sophomore season. He's more of a high floor player that lacks the high ceiling of other players in the draft. A safe pick that shouldn't bust, and he could be a fast riser through the farm system.

 

So if you flip the order and say the Cubs had taken Strumpf with their first pick and ended up with Jensen with their next pick I'd still be a little disappointed, but it's not a bad outcome. I don't think Jensen was lasting all to the way to their next pick and that was part of the calculus I guess.

[Regular Show]

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[Deeg]

Strumpf is an interesting pick and certainly not a reach where we took him, but there are some definite yellow flags there. Regressed big-time this season, not much of a defender or baserunner so it's hit or bust with him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

On a random note, can anyone guess whose draft day report this is?

 

______ is a toolsy high school center fielder who was gaining momentum as the weather in the Northeast warmed up. He looks more like a football safety -- his position in high school -- than a center fielder, but has the tools to play there with plus speed. He just started switch-hitting to enhance his offensive value, and with some changes to his approach at the plate should hit for some power down the line. There is some rawness with the bat, but he has the kind of upside many teams look for in a high school position player, and was moving into first-round conversations as a result.

[Post Count Padder]

I feel pretty good about the Strumpf pick. Sounds like we have our future infield set up after everyone else leaves is in FA....

[Hrubes20]

Jensen is really interesting to me. Certainly not who I would have picked, but he had helium and provides a power arm in a system with very very few of them in the rotation.

 

Strumpf is a super “meh” pick for me. HATE those k rates for a player that won’t provide defensive or base running value.

 

I’m sure a fun high ceiling prep pick will happen in the 4th or 5th like usual and it will make this class look more appealing. Have to imagine Jensen saved some bonus money for overslots.

[squally1313]

On a random note, can anyone guess whose draft day report this is?

 

______ is a toolsy high school center fielder who was gaining momentum as the weather in the Northeast warmed up. He looks more like a football safety -- his position in high school -- than a center fielder, but has the tools to play there with plus speed. He just started switch-hitting to enhance his offensive value, and with some changes to his approach at the plate should hit for some power down the line. There is some rawness with the bat, but he has the kind of upside many teams look for in a high school position player, and was moving into first-round conversations as a result.

 

I would think pretty much everyone who hangs out in the Draft Day thread can figure out who this is.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[jersey cubs fan]

that is disappointing

[Hrubes20]

 

Anyone mention what Allen’s price tag was?

[Regular Show]

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The Pitch Lab awaits Ryan Jensen.

 

The Cubs surprisingly selected the Fresno State right-hander with the No. 27 overall pick Monday night, going against the risk-averse philosophy that once favored college hitters in the first round and ultimately defined the early stages of Theo Epstein’s rebuilding project.

 

For Epstein’s baseball operations department, this has been more of a gradual evolution than an overnight shift in thinking. The Cubs recognized the weaknesses in their scouting systems and felt the pressure to finally deliver some homegrown pitchers to Wrigley Field, so they adjusted the ways they evaluate amateur pitchers, blended in more analytics and made significant investments in player development, both in staffing and technology.

 

Picking a prospect that MLB.com ranked No. 99 on its draft board is the logical extension of an organization trying to get more creative in the draft, stop being quite so conservative with pitchers in the minor leagues and use all the shiny new toys in its Arizona training complex.

Jason McLeod, the senior vice president who oversees scouting and player development for the Cubs, explained it like this on a conference call:“First and foremost, it is a big velocity guy, a big, lively fastball. He’s not 6-5. He’s not the Jon Lester-looking frame. He’s just a 6-foot guy, but he’s strong (and) athletic. I’d say his mechanics aren’t what people would call typical, just because he’s a little bit deeper in the back with his arm stroke, so this is that player that I’ve talked about in past years that we probably wouldn’t have taken.”

“Yeah, this is the biggest surprise of the first round by far to this point,” MLB.com draft guru Jim Callis said on the telecast.

 

McLeod understood the Cubs would get that kind of reaction by selecting Jensen, who has a 4.42 career ERA and only 27 starts (63 appearances) on his Fresno State resume.

 

“At least to the draft experts, quote-unquote ‘experts,’ if you will,” McLeod said. “We knew that someone would say, ‘Wow, but this is where he’s ranked.’ The funny thing is after they said that, (five) picks behind us, Houston took a catcher (Cal’s Corey Lee) that was ranked, like, 170th by Baseball America, and (there are) two pretty smart front offices there. We understand it, but at the same time, we trust in our process.”

Jensen has gone 12-1 with a 2.88 ERA this year, putting up 107 strikeouts against 27 walks through 100 innings. While the first impressions on the MLB Network draft show made it sound like Jensen could be fast-tracked as a reliever, the Cubs are betting on the pitching infrastructure that has helped produce great results at the major-league level and struggled to coach up prospects in the minors.

 

“What he’ll be in the end is obviously to be determined,” McLeod said. “But we certainly think he has the attributes to start, especially with the way he uses his fastball, the two- and four-seamer. We’re excited to get him into our pitching lab.”

 

There is more in the article, but I didn't want to post the whole thing here. They mentioned the underslot thing and how local HS phenom Quinn Priester would've been a good target for the new pitching philosophy of the Cubs. They briefly mention the "the organization’s long-running philosophical discussions about hitters vs. pitchers".

 

Clearly, the ones in favor of taking hitters over pitchers lost to our dismay.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Regular Show

[KingCubsFan]

 

Anyone mention what Allen’s price tag was?

 

Before the draft the rumor was $4 million

I’m OK with that given that the draft is a total crapshoot after the first few picks. May as well spread the money among a few high ceiling guys rather than paying above-slot (or even slot money) at 27 when it’s unlikely he’ll ever make it past AA no matter how much Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo like him.

[jersey cubs fan]

McLeod said. “We knew that someone would say, ‘Wow, but this is where he’s ranked.’ The funny thing is after they said that, (five) picks behind us, Houston took a catcher (Cal’s Corey Lee) that was ranked, like, 170th by Baseball America, and (there are) two pretty smart front offices there. We understand it, but at the same time, we trust in our process.”

 

Not a big fan of the defensiveness of this comment.