2019 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

[craig]

 

For reference, Wes Saver twitter where he collects lots of comments from or regarding Cub selections.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1136995355130769408[/tweet]

The Cubs took the hardest-throwing starter in the draft with 6-foot right-hander Ryan Jensen (1), who hits 100 mph and frequently sits 97-99, with an average slider and solid control. Everyone wants to stick him in the bullpen because he's short and throws hard, but he has the ability to hold that velocity deep into games as a starter. Chase Strumpf (2) could have been a first-rounder had he had a better year for UCLA; he's a shortstop who'll move to second base and did have a first-round kind of spring in 2018 as a sophomore, hitting for average and power with a slightly better contact rate.

 

Louisville right-hander Mike McAvene (3) returned from Tommy John surgery in 2018 and was the team's closer this spring. He's 92-96 with both a slider and changeup even out of the bullpen, so he could be stretched out to start -- although he has some effort and he lost his command in his second inning the night I saw him this spring.

 

USC right-hander Chris Clarke (4) is another college reliever who had Tommy John surgery. He throws 92-95 with good sink and also has a slider and curveball, both in the low 80s. He could end up starting although I get the sense the Cubs wanted to take fast-moving relievers. Washington right-hander Josh Burgmann (5) really competes with fringy to below-average stuff, 89-92 with a clearly below-average changeup. He's yet another post-Tommy John prospect. Alabama prep catcher Ethan Hearn (6) came into the year as a below-average receiver with bad hands behind the plate but improved over the course of the spring both in catching and throwing after working on it in the offseason. He's still more of a power over hit guy at the plate. He'll turn 19 in August.

 

Davidjohn Herz (8) was seen as a very tough sign due to his commitment to UNC. He's a right-hander and quarterback, up to 94, very athletic, but fairly raw as a pitcher because he plays three sports.

[Regular Show]

I really need to remind myself to be disciplined and ignore posters who frustrate the hell out of me...

 

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Cubs: Ethan Hearn, C, Mobile Christian HS (Ala.), 6th round

 

They chose Ethan Hearn, which seems like a weird choice to me. The more I read about him the less I like the pick. I don't think this was a good selection and HS catchers are a super dangerous demographic and have a high bust rate. Then again, it was a 6th round pick. Just depends on how much the Cubs go overslot to sign him.

[craig]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1136995355130769408[/tweet]

 

Davidjohn Herz (8) was seen as a very tough sign due to his commitment to UNC. He's a right-hander and quarterback, up to 94, very athletic, but fairly raw as a pitcher because he plays three sports.

 

Keith Law, I appreciate your stuff, and I know you won't read this.... But, DavidJohn Herz is actually a lefty, not a righty!

 

Big difference in terms of pro career track, I think!

 

It's gotta be tough for these media guys, trying to act informed about hundreds of draftees, many of whom they've never seen at all or if so perhaps for one brief appearance. And to be whipping off zillions of post-draft writeups and stuff in very short order with no edit-time.

But it may also speak to how little they may know, and how modestly valuable their input is.

 

Herz with his weird sometimes cross-fire delivery, that might not work well for arm health or consistency. But if he can throw strikes with it, he might project very favorably as a situational lefty reliever, even if the rotation is too much for him. Hopefully he'll make it as even more than a situational lefty reliever, but it's not the worst outcome.

[Regular Show]

 

Davidjohn Herz (8) was seen as a very tough sign due to his commitment to UNC. He's a right-hander and quarterback, up to 94, very athletic, but fairly raw as a pitcher because he plays three sports.

 

Keith Law, I appreciate your stuff, and I know you won't read this.... But, DavidJohn Herz is actually a lefty, not a righty!

 

Big difference in terms of pro career track, I think!

 

It's gotta be tough for these media guys, trying to act informed about hundreds of draftees, many of whom they've never seen at all or if so perhaps for one brief appearance. And to be whipping off zillions of post-draft writeups and stuff in very short order with no edit-time.

But it may also speak to how little they may know, and how modestly valuable their input is.

 

Herz with his weird sometimes cross-fire delivery, that might not work well for arm health or consistency. But if he can throw strikes with it, he might project very favorably as a situational lefty reliever, even if the rotation is too much for him. Hopefully he'll make it as even more than a situational lefty reliever, but it's not the worst outcome.

 

Yeah, so Keith Law knows DJ Herz is a lefty. Just a typo and a mistake is what I think happened. It's a very large recap for every team in MLB so mistakes are bound to happen. Keith Law talks to plenty of scouts and ppl in the industry and his input is valuable. I don't always agree with his take on prospects and he's reluctant to admit when he's wrong, but he knows his stuff.

 

Herz definitely has a weird funky delivery and I get why scouts say he'll probably end up being a reliever. Maybe the Cubs' coaches and player development staff can correct that without a loss of stuff. The crossfire delivery makes a pitcher more deceptive and harder to face for same side hitters.

 

Maybe the upside for DJ Herz is like a poor man's Chris Sale?

[craig]

...It's a very large recap for every team in MLB so mistakes are bound to happen. Keith Law talks to plenty of scouts and ppl in the industry and his input is valuable. I don't always agree with his take on prospects and he's reluctant to admit when he's wrong, but he knows his stuff.

 

Herz definitely has a weird funky delivery and I get why scouts say he'll probably end up being a reliever. Maybe the Cubs' coaches and player development staff can correct that without a loss of stuff. The crossfire delivery makes a pitcher more deceptive and harder to face for same side hitters.

 

Maybe the upside for DJ Herz is like a poor man's Chris Sale?

 

It's hard to be a good rotation starter, so the odds of getting a good rotation starter out of an 8th round pick signing for 3rd-round money isn't very high, of course. Obviously. But yeah, we'll hope that he beats the odds and proves to be one of those.

 

I also agree that the delivery we've seen in the few clips is funky; agree that's maybe for better and for worse. In general, I love funky deliveries and agree that they can be deceptive, and anything unusual can make it harder on hitters. Plus certainly versus lefties, that could be really challenging, whether in rotation or in relief. But yeah, pretty obvious why scouts might see the present delivery displayed in the few clips as being well-suited towards possible LOOGY usage someday.

 

The challenges with funky deliveries, of course, are several. One is repeatability, consistency, and command. (If Cishek and Brach could consistently locate their side-army deliveries, for example, they'd be really good.....) If you're wild all the time, not a good recipe. Second is injury. Often weird deliveries, and the inconsistent mechanics that can result, put more strain on the arm. Third is opposite-site hitters. It's nice to have a tough slot for lefties; but will a LH crossfire-curveball guy have movement that challenges righties?

 

The "funky crossfire" bit displayed in a brief HS video clip doesn't at all mean that he'll use it consistently as a pro. I believe one of the reports already suggested that it was there in one viewing, not so much in another. So as a pro, he may well train himself and pitch-lab himself to a much revised delivery. A successful 25-year-old Herz might have a much more consistent and perhaps much less funky delivery, who knows?

 

Also possible for a guy to use different deliveries? (Cueto for example...) Consistency and command with even one is hard enough, so locating from two deliveries is harder. But it's conceivable that Herz might use a lower slot that works great versus lefties; but if that doesn't work that well versus righties, perhaps he'd use a different and higher slot versus righties?

 

Will be fun to see where his career goes, if he stays healthy.

[Post Count Padder]

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[We Got The Whole 9]

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Apparently got 2m exactly

[craig]

Had been reference to agreeing for a deal in the low-40's range. $2.0 is in between 36/37. So maybe a little higher than I had expected.

 

Nice to have it done fast, that frees up a bunch of dollars, so it means they can move forward and sign/finalize overslot guys and don't need to wait on all of those.

[Edith Cox]

MLB.com's draft tracker has Deppermann signing for 50K or 144K and change less than slot.

[Hrubes20]

 

They chose Ethan Hearn, which seems like a weird choice to me. The more I read about him the less I like the pick. I don't think this was a good selection and HS catchers are a super dangerous demographic and have a high bust rate. Then again, it was a 6th round pick. Just depends on how much the Cubs go overslot to sign him.

 

Much like the Jensen pick, it's not the direction I would have gone for what is likely to be the splashy mid-round overslot pick. But his offensive profile does sound an awful lot like Brennen Davis predraft last year, and the early returns on his rebuilt swing are terrific. With that plus arm and solid athleticism, he could transition fairly easily to a COF spot if the bat comes around but his receiving is still terrible.

[Regular Show]

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I think both Jensen and Strumpf will be added to the Top 30 Cubs Prospect list. I can't see anyone else from this draft being added right now.

Edited June 12, 2019 by Regular Show

[Hrubes20]

This says D.J. Herz signed for "end of the 3rd round money", which is over $500K.

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https://www.fayobserver.com/sports/20190613/terry-sanfords-davidjohn-herz-midways-matthew-barefoot-sign-with-pro-baseball-teams

 

Our boy Wes Saver has Schlaffer getting $250K, which is less than I would have figured.

[Regular Show]

This says D.J. Herz signed for "end of the 3rd round money", which is over $500K.

http://

https://www.fayobserver.com/sports/20190613/terry-sanfords-davidjohn-herz-midways-matthew-barefoot-sign-with-pro-baseball-teams

 

Our boy Wes Saver has Schlaffer getting $250K, which is less than I would have figured.

 

That's what I was expecting for Schlaffer (~$250-$300K range) and I expect the Cubs to sign DJ Herz for a similar amount to Kohl Franklin's signing bonus ($650K).

 

EDIT: Kohl Franklin signed for $540K last year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

Surprised Clarke got slot.

[UK]

Although Auer was my favorite of the prep players I seen the Cubs take (between him, Schlaffer, and Ritter), I'm glad they've been aggressive in signing the HS'ers and not really needing Auer as an insurance policy.

[craig]

....Surprised Clarke got slot.

 

Yes, same. Seems he's been the least discussed guy, and with the least amount of scouting info, of the top-5 pitchers.

But it appears he'll have the 2nd highest bonus. Given the Cubs record with pitching, not sure their interest proves anything good. But, interesting nonetheless. He's the guy listed as having just turned 20 last month. I wonder if his youth made the Cubs imagine more for him; or perhaps despite being a college junior, his age game him a little-more bonus leverage or something?

 

I'll be interested if we ever get a scouting evaluation from the Cubs draft people about him? I'll also be intereesting in whether they pitch him as reliever all the way, or try to have him develop change and to go rotation.

 

Just an interesting, curious guy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1140332625745207296?s=21

[Regular Show]

Another local kid (or at least Northern Illinois) that I wonder if the Cubs were interested in. Great story. So he got hit in the face and nearly lost vision in one eye, but fortunately it came back. Sounds like the kid has great makeup and determination. Throws pretty hard as well. Shame he went to the Cardinals.

[Regular Show]

[Regular Show]

The Top 3 are always FL, TX and CA in producing baseball talent. That Illinois is sixth and only 7 picks behind Georgia is really impressive. It was a good draft year for Illinois.

[jersey cubs fan]

horsefeathers you wyoming

[Hrubes20]

With Strumpf getting slot, that leaves $1,616,345 for McAvene, Hearns, and Hendrie when the 5% overage is included. Something like $550K for McAvene, $1 million for Hearns, and $60K for Hendrie feels right.

[Regular Show]

With Strumpf getting slot, that leaves $1,616,345 for McAvene, Hearns, and Hendrie when the 5% overage is included. Something like $550K for McAvene, $1 million for Hearns, and $60K for Hendrie feels right.

 

I don't think Hearns is getting $1 mil... I'm thinking $750K or a little bit more than that. Still disappointed with the pick, but even more so if he's truly getting that much.

 

I think McAvene might get slightly more than $550K also.

[Regular Show]

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So if Matt Allan signs for $2.5 mil that's about 500K over what Ryan Jensen got from the Cubs. Jensen took an underslot deal so I'm guessing the Cubs offered Allan slot or slightly overslot at #27.

 

So basically R. Jensen + DJ Herz ($500K bonus) vs. M. Allan...

 

Honestly, there's a bunch of permutations for how to spend the pool money, like if the Cubs didn't take Ethan Hearn and pay him overslot they'd still be able to afford DJ Herz along with Matt Allan.

 

I wouldn't have taken a pitcher period with the 1st round pick, but I do prefer the combo of Jensen + Herz over just taking (and paying) Allan that much. It'll be fascinating to see how this all plays out in a few years.

 

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Last thing, someone whose name rhymes with "Mom" here please don't horsefeathering respond to my post (directly or indirectly) on why Matt Allan is a boss and why you like him over Jensen and blah blah blah.