Hendricks extended through 2023

[Sammy Sofa]

With that said, I absolutely see the need to lock him up for awhile. Lester and Hamels are both toward the end and Quintana and Darvish are both question marks, so this helps stabilize a portion of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

 

Not even...

 

[squally1313]

Kyle's one of my favorite guys on the team, so I'm happy for him that he's getting paid, but I don't love this deal on paper. The idea of guaranteeing money to a guy still two years from FA who already only throws 87-88 seems unwise. We already saw in the first half of 2017 what it looks like when he loses a little bit more velo. What happens when it leaves and doesn't come back?

Yeah not really a deal we had to do and he probably doesn’t get much more in FA. But whatever, it’s not that much money that should handcuff us. I think he’ll age fairly well barring an injury.

 

Until proven otherwise, any dollar that comes out of the Ricketts' pockets and goes to one of the increasingly few good guys on this team is not an issue for me in the slightest. When someone can prove that this deal 'costs the Cubs' a good player down the road, sure, whatever. Until then, give everyone from the 2016 team (minus like 4 very important exceptions) whatever they want.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We already saw in the first half of 2017 what it looks like when he loses a little bit more velo. What happens when it leaves and doesn't come back?

 

Hendricks had an ERA+ around 110 the first half of 2017, so if that's the downside the downside is that he's basically an average starter.

[Bluescale]

Some of this is to also show the other young guys that while they may not get a huge payday in free agency, if they perform, they'll get a decent/fair extension when the time comes. I'm guessing they hope to get Javy's/Schwarber's attention.

 

Bryant, of course, is a whole other ball of wax...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Even the most negative folks around here can't be upset about this one.

 

I am well-known for my love of giving guaranteed money and years to pitchers when you didn't have to.

[17 Seconds]

it's a fine move but I'm already anticipating the extension being used as a reason for light spending again next offseason. a "we already completed a big chunk of our offseason when we signed kyle in march" quote seems very likely in about 7 months

[Cubswin11]

it's a fine move but I'm already anticipating the extension being used as a reason for light spending again next offseason. a "we already completed a big chunk of our offseason when we signed kyle in march" quote seems very likely in about 7 months

What’s out there to really spend on next offseason? The FA class is garbage on the top/expensive end. We’ll add some RPs (hopefully re-sign Pedro) and maybe a SP and a position player that’s more a platoon/backup to replace Zobrist. I see us adding any impact through trade, who that is idk. The best FA bats are Castellanos, Ozuna, Puig, Bogaerts and Rendon. I don’t see us being in on those guys (Rendon would be fun if he would play 2B/OF, but I don’t overly see a fit). The FA SP class is deep but average. Cole is the only top end guy. Then it’s a bunch of older/middle rotation guys.

[Regular Show]

Some of this is to also show the other young guys that while they may not get a huge payday in free agency, if they perform, they'll get a decent/fair extension when the time comes. I'm guessing they hope to get Javy's/Schwarber's attention.

 

Bryant, of course, is a whole other ball of wax...

 

We really need to approach Baez about getting an extension done. Hendricks and Baez were the two key ones I want and most realistic targets.

 

I want to get an extension for KB as well, but I'm honestly concerned about how he'll age after 30. I feel like for some reason that Bryant will not age well and that once his batspeed slows down his swing and approach will suffer. Probably has to move to corner OF at some point too (or 1B).

[champaignchris]

I could see the Cubs going after Bogaerts if he’s available.

 

But I’m guessing the Sox never let him out of Boston.

[Cubswin11]

Some of this is to also show the other young guys that while they may not get a huge payday in free agency, if they perform, they'll get a decent/fair extension when the time comes. I'm guessing they hope to get Javy's/Schwarber's attention.

 

Bryant, of course, is a whole other ball of wax...

 

We really need to approach Baez about getting an extension done. Hendricks and Baez were the two key ones I want and most realistic targets.

 

I want to get an extension for KB as well, but I'm honestly concerned about how he'll age after 30. I feel like for some reason that Bryant will not age well and that once his batspeed slows down his swing and approach will suffer. Probably has to move to corner OF at some point too (or 1B).

I don’t worry about KB aging much at all. Javy’s the guy I don’t have a ton of interest in extending. He’s such a baseball weirdo and his skill set/underlying stats show he’s a volatile/not sustainable elite player historically speaking, plus he relies on his athleticism a lot. I’m fine the most with riding out the arb years with him.

[Cubswin11]

I could see the Cubs going after Bogaerts if he’s available.

 

But I’m guessing the Sox never let him out of Boston.

Bogaerts just doesn’t do it for me, for some reason. He’s really good, don’t get me wrong. But I don’t know if he has an elite level and I’m assuming he’s going to want north of $150 million. Between Javy, Russell (he’s likely sticking around) and Nico I don’t see us spending big $ on SS anytime soon for an external option.

[jersey cubs fan]

Some of this is to also show the other young guys that while they may not get a huge payday in free agency, if they perform, they'll get a decent/fair extension when the time comes. I'm guessing they hope to get Javy's/Schwarber's attention.

 

Bryant, of course, is a whole other ball of wax...

 

We really need to approach Baez about getting an extension done. Hendricks and Baez were the two key ones I want and most realistic targets.

 

I want to get an extension for KB as well, but I'm honestly concerned about how he'll age after 30. I feel like for some reason that Bryant will not age well and that once his batspeed slows down his swing and approach will suffer. Probably has to move to corner OF at some point too (or 1B).

fearing Bryant’s aging and not javy’s is bizarre to me

[Regular Show]

I don't know how many times we need to talk about this in regards to Baez. We all know Baez is a very unique player and divisive.

 

Anyway, he's better defensively over Bryant. He's the better athlete. He has the stronger arm. He has the most elite batspeed on the team. Better basestealer. We can go on and on.

 

He has batspeed to spare. His athleticism is a big part of his game, but he can lose some athleticism and still be a great player. The main problem is his lack of discipline at the plate/inability to draw walks and get on base. We've talked about this matter for years now. IF he ever develops any patience at the plate and lays off those bad pitches away he can be a superstar MVP-caliber player.

 

Most likely he'll have up-and-down years going forward. Some years will be like last season where he remains remarkably effective at the plate despite the lack of discipline and posts 4-5 WAR. In other years he'll probably have a lower average and OBP and not be as effective at the plate and only post 2-3 WAR. That's still a great player and I think he's still improving. He'll never be a high-OBP guy, but I think he'll slowly start developing more patience. He knows he needs to work on that and admitted that.

 

KB worries me and looks awful at the plate sometimes (Yes, I know every player looks bad at the plate sometimes). Good pitchers can expose him and get him out. He still sucks against good changeups and sliders down and away. You execute a good strategy and you can get KB out. He's also still improving and his swing is flatter and not as much of an uppercut now. He is learning and improving, but I'm concerned with his approach going forward. Some players can adapt and shorten their swings/change their swings as they get older, but I'm not sure if KB is one of them. Also, his defense and range will get worse as he gets older. He will have to move off 3B at some point unless the Cubs want to live with subpar defense there.

Edited March 27, 2019 by Regular Show

[Regular Show]

Some of this is to also show the other young guys that while they may not get a huge payday in free agency, if they perform, they'll get a decent/fair extension when the time comes. I'm guessing they hope to get Javy's/Schwarber's attention.

 

Bryant, of course, is a whole other ball of wax...

 

We really need to approach Baez about getting an extension done. Hendricks and Baez were the two key ones I want and most realistic targets.

 

I want to get an extension for KB as well, but I'm honestly concerned about how he'll age after 30. I feel like for some reason that Bryant will not age well and that once his batspeed slows down his swing and approach will suffer. Probably has to move to corner OF at some point too (or 1B).

I don’t worry about KB aging much at all. Javy’s the guy I don’t have a ton of interest in extending. He’s such a baseball weirdo and his skill set/underlying stats show he’s a volatile/not sustainable elite player historically speaking, plus he relies on his athleticism a lot. I’m fine the most with riding out the arb years with him.

 

No offense, but saying Baez is "such a baseball weirdo" doesn't mean much...

 

Stop trying to compare him to other elite players historically because you can't find a good comparison. He's unique and special. We've discussed him before and you made the same points and talked up Addison Russell for starting SS and that didn't go well for you last time either. I can't believe how many Baez detractors there still are after last season.

 

[Cubswin11]

 

We really need to approach Baez about getting an extension done. Hendricks and Baez were the two key ones I want and most realistic targets.

 

I want to get an extension for KB as well, but I'm honestly concerned about how he'll age after 30. I feel like for some reason that Bryant will not age well and that once his batspeed slows down his swing and approach will suffer. Probably has to move to corner OF at some point too (or 1B).

I don’t worry about KB aging much at all. Javy’s the guy I don’t have a ton of interest in extending. He’s such a baseball weirdo and his skill set/underlying stats show he’s a volatile/not sustainable elite player historically speaking, plus he relies on his athleticism a lot. I’m fine the most with riding out the arb years with him.

 

No offense, but saying Baez is "such a baseball weirdo" doesn't mean much...

 

Stop trying to compare him to other elite players historically because you can't find a good comparison. He's unique and special. We've discussed him before and you made the same points and talked up Addison Russell for starting SS and that didn't go well for you last time either. I can't believe how many Baez detractors there still are after last season.

 

Plenty of people were wrong on Russell, a lot smarter people than any of us on here were wrong too (from a pure baseball stand point, leaving out the off field POS he is). Just from a pure numbers stand point I'd still pick a Russell profile over a Javy profile 10 times out 10 on prospects. But enough of that, I hope Russell is gone sooner than later with what we know now.

 

I wouldn't say I'm a detractor anymore, last year made me a believer Javy just has some insane, innate, skills that likely let him be valuable to some degree when many players would fail with similar profiles (or need to be platooned/hidden). If Javy can prove he can repeat last year (relatively) for another year or two I'd be all for an extension, I'd just like to see a little more proof he can be a 4+ win guy again (and not just a ~2 win guy, which is still fine) given that historically it is hard to be 4+ wins consistently with the numbers we have on him.

[Regular Show]

I don’t think it is a given that Baez is a better athlete.

 

And that's why I don't take you seriously or respond to any of your posts.

 

You try to scout and talk up prospects all the time and you can't even get this right?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Baez having more bat speed than anyone is not the same as having bat speed to spare. His swing is not particularly compact and losing a tick to merely be 'elite' bat speed could have significant consequences. Players who lean that hard on their physical gifts to be really good don't have extra room for error against decline.

[Sammy Sofa]

Baez also kicks the horsefeathers out of himself to do the amazing baserunning and defensive things he does that helps give him so much extra value, and there's pretty much no way that can age gracefully. Dude is awesome, but he's not going to be able to play through being perpetually banged up for very long.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't know how many times we need to talk about this in regards to Baez.

 

We can go on and on.

 

We've talked about this matter for years now.

 

 

Stop trying to compare him to other elite players historically because you can't find a good comparison. He's unique and special. We've discussed him before

 

No more talking about things we've talked about before.

[Regular Show]

Baez having more bat speed than anyone is not the same as having bat speed to spare. His swing is not particularly compact and losing a tick to merely be 'elite' bat speed could have significant consequences. Players who lean that hard on their physical gifts to be really good don't have extra room for error against decline.

 

That's not me exactly saying that -- I actually took that from a scout. He said he has elite bat speed (possibly the best in MLB) and has "bat speed to spare". Keith Law or Kiley McDaniel said that his pronounced bat wrap earlier in his career actually helped him somewhat because his bat was so violent and quick. Normally, a bat wrap is a bad thing and Baez has toned that down.

 

I disagree with you here. His swing isn't compact, but he has great hands and can adjust and reach pitches that some hitters on this team can't get to or do anything with. Scouts and experts consistently say his batspeed is among the best so it's hard to figure out what "losing a tick" means for someone like him. It's hard to predict how he'll do once his bat slows down, but I'm not worried about Baez. I'd be way more concerned about other hitters on this team.

[squally1313]

KB and Baez were the two fastest runners on the team (Baez by 0.8 feet per second, 28.8 to 28, though somehow Statcast has Almora right behind Bryant, so maybe this metric doesn't mean anything). Let's just say they are both very good, if not elite baserunnners, and give Baez the nod for his willingness to steal bases.

 

Bryant is a better hitter than Baez, full stop. In Baez's MVP candidate season, where Bryant had a bum shoulder for around half of his PAs, Baez had a 131 wRC to Bryant's 125. Baez had never been above average in this category until this year. This was Bryant's worst by 11 points.

 

Baez gets the nod in defense, mostly because he plays the premium position...advanced metrics have weirdly never liked him as much as your top flight, or even average shortstops. Maybe that doesn't account for the tagging skills, however you want to quantify that.

 

Of those three, I'm taking hitting, and I think it's the area where they are farthest apart.

 

Then again, both of them should just make all the money and PTR should have to go live on the streets.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I don't know how many times we need to talk about this in regards to Baez.

 

We can go on and on.

 

We've talked about this matter for years now.

 

 

Stop trying to compare him to other elite players historically because you can't find a good comparison. He's unique and special. We've discussed him before

 

No more talking about things we've talked about before.

@Tim

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Baez having more bat speed than anyone is not the same as having bat speed to spare. His swing is not particularly compact and losing a tick to merely be 'elite' bat speed could have significant consequences. Players who lean that hard on their physical gifts to be really good don't have extra room for error against decline.

 

That's not me exactly saying that -- I actually took that from a scout. He said he has elite bat speed (possibly the best in MLB) and has "bat speed to spare". Keith Law or Kiley McDaniel said that his pronounced bat wrap earlier in his career actually helped him somewhat because his bat was so violent and quick. Normally, a bat wrap is a bad thing and Baez has toned that down.

 

I disagree with you here. His swing isn't compact, but he has great hands and can adjust and reach pitches that some hitters on this team can't get to or do anything with. Scouts and experts consistently say his batspeed is among the best so it's hard to figure out what "losing a tick" means for someone like him. It's hard to predict how he'll do once his bat slows down, but I'm not worried about Baez. I'd be way more concerned about other hitters on this team.

 

It's not extra hard to figure out how Baez's high level physical gifts will age, it's guesswork for experts and idiots like us alike. The point is he doesn't get extra credit in the aging department because of them when he needs to use those physical gifts dialed up to 11 to even be a passable major leaguer. He has one season with a wOBA above .326 and a wRC+ above 100. His career batting line's closest Cubs peer is Almora.

[jersey cubs fan]

KB worries me and looks awful at the plate sometimes (Yes, I know every player looks bad at the plate sometimes). Good pitchers can expose him and get him out. He still sucks against good changeups and sliders down and away. You execute a good strategy and you can get KB out.

 

What kind of bizarro world do you live in where KB looks awful at the plate sometimes, good pitchers can expose him and get him out, sucks against good offspeed stuff and can be stopped via good strategy, but that all doesn't apply to Javy Baez?

[Regular Show]

Baez having more bat speed than anyone is not the same as having bat speed to spare. His swing is not particularly compact and losing a tick to merely be 'elite' bat speed could have significant consequences. Players who lean that hard on their physical gifts to be really good don't have extra room for error against decline.

 

That's not me exactly saying that -- I actually took that from a scout. He said he has elite bat speed (possibly the best in MLB) and has "bat speed to spare". Keith Law or Kiley McDaniel said that his pronounced bat wrap earlier in his career actually helped him somewhat because his bat was so violent and quick. Normally, a bat wrap is a bad thing and Baez has toned that down.

 

I disagree with you here. His swing isn't compact, but he has great hands and can adjust and reach pitches that some hitters on this team can't get to or do anything with. Scouts and experts consistently say his batspeed is among the best so it's hard to figure out what "losing a tick" means for someone like him. It's hard to predict how he'll do once his bat slows down, but I'm not worried about Baez. I'd be way more concerned about other hitters on this team.

 

It's not extra hard to figure out how Baez's high level physical gifts will age, it's guesswork for experts and idiots like us alike. The point is he doesn't get extra credit in the aging department because of them when he needs to use those physical gifts dialed up to 11 to even be a passable major leaguer. He has one season with a wOBA above .326 and a wRC+ above 100. His career batting line's closest Cubs peer is Almora.

 

We'll have to agree to disagree here. I wouldn't say he needs those physical gifts to just be "passable". His track level at the big league level isn't amazing, but he's been improving every season on offense. Again, his main problem is lack of plate discipline and swinging at bad pitches out of the zone. I think he'll age well and that his batspeed slowing down won't affect him too much as long as his swing doesn't get longer/plate discipline gets even worse.

 

I'll admit that the way he plays and how extreme he is on the basepaths could affect him. He definitely has to tone it down and not play so recklessly as he gets older.