Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

[UMFan83]

3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

[cl smooth]

3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

 

[David]

Seems safe to say he'll, thankfully, be out this week, if there was any doubt

 

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[UMFan83]

Seems safe to say he'll, thankfully, be out this week, if there was any doubt

 

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"instead we dropped him into coverage half the time"

[WrigleyField 22]

i forgot about the aikman ratings since i haven't looked for them since the last time the bears were anything resembling good, but...

 

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If I understand the ratings right, they are only offensive and defensive ratings, and don't include special teams. And special teams have probably cost Bears two of their games.

 

Interestingly, Dvoa, which does have ST ratings has bears 5th overall (30th ranked ST). Along with 1st in D and 11th in O. Aikman has Bears 1st in D and 10th in O. Overall, Aikman and DVOA seem much closer to being aligned on O than D (at least using week 8 of 2018 as a comparison).

[Cubswin11]

Seems safe to say he'll, thankfully, be out this week, if there was any doubt

 

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There must be some shared medical staff system with the Cubs and Bears

[r_mack]

3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

Both #2 overall picks that put up good stats early in their career, neither of which meets the eye test. I actually think this is a good comparison.

[jumbo]

3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

Both #2 overall picks that put up good stats early in their career, neither of which meets the eye test. I actually think this is a good comparison.

Bortles was 3, I think

[UK]

3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

Both #2 overall picks that put up good stats early in their career, neither of which meets the eye test. I actually think this is a good comparison.

Bortles was 3, I think

 

You're correct, although he's more similar to a 2nd overall pick from almost 20 years ago. Although most player comparisons are based on race 1st, Trubisky's profile is more similar to McNabb (strong armed, inconsistent mechanics/accuracy, running is something defenses have to scheme against). I know this goes against r_mack's premise or narrative of picking someone who's viewed negatively rather than looking at Trubisky objectively (but it's a much better player comparison).

[Derwood]

Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?

 

Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

 

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

 

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.

[UMFan83]

Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?

 

Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

 

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

 

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.

 

I think they keep stats somewhere of number of dangerous passes. I'd like to see how that compares because it seems like Mitch has been lucky with throwing interceptable balls that werent caught. It's possible that his INT rate could regress in a hurry.

[WrigleyField 22]

Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?

 

Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

 

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

 

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.

 

I think they keep stats somewhere of number of dangerous passes. I'd like to see how that compares because it seems like Mitch has been lucky with throwing interceptable balls that werent caught. It's possible that his INT rate could regress in a hurry.

I read an article that the best future predictor of INT rate is simply completion percentage. So Mitch looks decent there at 64% despite two below average games in that metric.

[minnesotacubsfan]

In all fairness, when Mitch misses he misses EVERYONE

[Bertz]

Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?

 

Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

 

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

 

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.

 

I think they keep stats somewhere of number of dangerous passes. I'd like to see how that compares because it seems like Mitch has been lucky with throwing interceptable balls that werent caught. It's possible that his INT rate could regress in a hurry.

 

That's tracked, but I don't know of a (free) place that updates it week by week. Most guys have a handful per year; according to FO the average is 1 per every 120 attempts. Mitch has 3 I can think of right now (1 vs SEA, 2 vs NE) in 240 attempts. I'm sure I'm forgetting one or two, but unless I'm forgetting several he's been a little fortunate but not so much that it should materially change what we think of him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Everyone has interceptions that "should" have been. A lot of them get dropped. That's why they are DBs and not WRs.

[David]

Everyone has interceptions that "should" have been. A lot of them get dropped. That's why they are DBs and not WRs.

 

sure, but charting bad decisions/throws (or "should have been" interceptions) would be more predictive than just counting interceptions and reduces variance/luck in the data. in the long run it should even out, but in 8 games, one guy could pretty easily luck his way into significantly fewer (or more) picks than he should have.

 

but you know this.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Everyone has interceptions that "should" have been. A lot of them get dropped. That's why they are DBs and not WRs.

 

sure, but charting bad decisions/throws (or "should have been" interceptions) would be more predictive than just counting interceptions and reduces variance/luck in the data. in the long run it should even out, but in 8 games, one guy could pretty easily luck his way into significantly fewer (or more) picks than he should have.

 

but you know this.

 

Sure. But absent that data, actual interception totals are a better proxy than actual INTs plus remembering some bad throws.

 

But you know this.

[jersey cubs fan]

You're both dorks, but we know this.

[David]

You're both dorks, but we know this.

We're all enormous dorks, or else we wouldn't be here

[Sammy Sofa]

You're both dorks, but we know this.

 

Finally, some good Bears content.

[UMFan83]

Another rough grade for Mitch:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000983193/article/midseason-qb-index-rodgers-at-no-3-brady-no-10?campaign=tw-nf-sf201350541-sf201350541&sf201350541=1&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

#26 Mitchell Trubisky

 

He's the most divisive quarterback in football, at least according to the stats. ESPN's QBR has him ranked seventh overall and his fantasy stats are undeniably large. DVOA has him 20th, while the graders at Pro Football Focus have him ranked as the worst pure passer in football by a wide margin. My rank is closer to PFF's because of all the interceptions he's lucked out of thanks to drops by defenders, and all the open receivers that he's missed.

 

2018 stats: 7 games | 64.6 pct | 1,814 pass yds | 7.6 ypa | 15 pass TD | 6 INT | 296 rush yds | 2 rush TD

[NOLA]

Just thought I’d mention that I flew into Buffalo today for a work trip, tons of Chicago fans here, and they keep playing Sublime on the jukebox.

[NOLA]

Dp

[NOLA]

SSS and all, but these Bears fan douchebags are the worst fans I’ve been around. I mean, FFS, these guys suck.