The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread AKA The Rickettssss take a dump on EVERYTHING

[Cubswin11]

Speaking of Baez - what are we expecting if he gets 100-120+ starts a SS?

Defensively? Probably average to above average but not elite like Russell. Offensively I have no idea what to predict other than 30ish HRs.

 

This isn't the first time that Tom has talked about someone playing SS like it has an impact on how they perform offensively, and I don't get it at all.

Yeah I don’t get that at all either. The only time a position should ever be an offensive factor is if a guy is moving on or off of catcher because of the wear and tear.

[Tim]

okay...different path. Assuming we miss on Harper/Machado:

 

pick up options on:

 

Strop

Q

Hamels

 

Trade:

 

Duensing + Kintzler + Chatwood for whatever savings can be had (Assume $5M)

LaStella for a relief prospect

Russell+ for cost controlled reliever - let's stick with Dominguez for now (this saves ~$5M)

Amaya + Lange + Swarmer (or pretty much whatever package works for them) for Jose Leclerc (Tex)

 

Sign:

 

Brantley

Escobar

Chavez

 

Lineup: (Zobrist will give lots of guys rest; Heyward & Almora are strict platoon; Caratini plays much more)

 

Brantley / Bryant / Rizzo / Baez / Schwarber / Escobar / Heyward / Contreras

 

Bench:

 

Happ / Caratini / Almora / Zobrist

 

Rotation:

 

Lester / Hendricks / Hamels / Quintana / Darvish

 

Swing:

 

Monty / Smyly / Mills

 

Bullpen:

 

Leclerc / Morrow / Strop / Dominguez / Cishek / Chavez / Edwards (+ swing guys when not in rotation --- I'm just going to assume injuries + DL shenanigans)

[Tim]

I'd also be interested in Taylor Rogers from Min.

[soccer10k]

On the record as no for Harper.

Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him?

Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.

 

[UK]

Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him?

Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.

 

 

I don't see the same red flags as with Darvish and Heyward.

[r_mack]

Russell+ for cost controlled reliever - let's stick with Dominguez for now (this saves ~$5M)

The Phillies aren't giving up their closer of the future for a dude suspended for domestic abuse.

[Sammys Boombox]

Like you don’t want him or don’t think we get him?

Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.

 

 

Yes, I know. And if we sign Harper I’m still going to be excited about it. I’m not vehemently opposed.

[Regular Show]

Don’t want him because I’m a big fraidy cat who thinks every big contract we sign is going to hamstring us when their shoulder or wrist or knee gives out.

 

 

Yes, I know. And if we sign Harper I’m still going to be excited about it. I’m not vehemently opposed.

 

So if you're against signing Harper then you're basically against any large contract for a significant FA. The Darvish deal can still work out and be a successful signing if he comes back healthy.

 

Heyward was a bust. Lester has been awesome. So it's like 1 bust, 1 success and 1 incomplete right now.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Darvish signing was clearly done with the idea that they'd almost surely be be eating cost on the back half due to his injury history/tendencies, so that they effectively got nothing out of his first season is a pretty gigantic knock against him truly being "worth" his Cubs contract.

 

Obviously, that's not saying he won't be of value to them, but it's pretty unlikely that it's a wait and see situation in terms of seeing if it was a good signing or not (in the grand scheme of, "was this player's value worth his estimated dollar value;" obviously, if the guy only has one healthy season with the Cubs, but in that one season he's awesome and a huge part of them winning a WS, hey, I'm not gonna lose sleep over how much money they "lost" on him).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Some scattered ideas that don't necessarily fit together:

 

- Sign Harper

 

- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter), and the moment it's not damaging to the relationship(maybe in spring training after performances dictate), tell Smyly he's a reliever.

 

- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood

 

- Find a second baseman who can take over the Zobrist mantle, Zobrist's presence means this can be a more speculative move(especially if you add Harper), but with Baez a permanent SS now there's a hole there that can't really wait or be planned as Hoerner's spot(though that is a possibility as early as summer 2020). So instead of feeling like you have to pay Jed Lowrie, you can try to find the next Joey Wendle.

 

- Asdrubal Cabrera fits the roster pretty well on a short deal

 

- Need to make sure the backup C is used more often next year. Whether that's finding another Ross or hitting Joe in the head til he plays Caratini, I don't have super strong feelings. Maldonado and Mathis are both plus framers that are FA, even if neither can hit.

 

- If you can add to the top of the pen, the depth with new guy, Morrow, Strop, Edwards, Cishek would be very strong. David Robertson has some decline coming, but he's been pretty underrated over the years despite having made 50 million in his career. I'm fine with Chavez coming back too although ideally not as the best addition. It'd be interesting to see the trade targets the FO can come up with too.

 

- Sign Harper, in case you've forgotten.

[squally1313]

- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood

 

For as thin as the bullpen was stretched last year, do you really want to give two 'bullpen' spots to guys who are locked in to only pitching every 5 days?

[Sammy Sofa]

I keep forgetting aboyt Smyly.

 

And I love the sound of ideas like:

 

- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood

 

...but I'm a highly suspect that a last year manager likely fighting for his job is going to be willing to even try something like that, much less sticking to it, unfortunately.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thinking this through made me realize that there's a bit of a roster crunch with pitchers too.

 

Lester, Hendricks, Q, Darvish, Chatwood, Montgomery, Smyly, Edwards, Strop, Morrow, Cishek, Duensing, Kintzler is a full pitching staff before any additions. Sure you can tell Duensing and Kintzler to get lost any time you want and that group will almost certainly have someone on the DL most of the time, but adding 3 pitchers(say, Hamels, Chavez, TBA) requires a tough choice. Smyly and Edwards are optionable, the former going to Iowa get stretched out seems like the likely choice in that scenario.

[Sammys Boombox]

 

 

Yes, I know. And if we sign Harper I’m still going to be excited about it. I’m not vehemently opposed.

 

So if you're against signing Harper then you're basically against any large contract for a significant FA. The Darvish deal can still work out and be a successful signing if he comes back healthy.

 

Heyward was a bust. Lester has been awesome. So it's like 1 bust, 1 success and 1 incomplete right now.

 

Being a large market team I expect us to make blockbuster signings. I will be bubbling over with enthusiasm if we sign Harper. At the same time I’ll be worrying that a freak injury like a fastball to the wrong part of the wrist will screw us big time. I probably shouldn’t say I’m against the signing, moreso I’m just worried it’s a bust, mainly due to an injury. It’s a little tongue in cheek. I called myself a fraidy cat.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Don't add a starter but piggyback Darvish/Smyly and Montgomery/Chatwood

 

For as thin as the bullpen was stretched last year, do you really want to give two 'bullpen' spots to guys who are locked in to only pitching every 5 days?

 

You can have Smyly/Chatwood throw ~4 innings a week at once or you can have them or a replacement do it scattered across several games. Shouldn't make a difference in workload, and if anything makes planning the pen slightly more predictable.

[Sammy Sofa]

And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.

[CP_414]

- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter)

 

Really? Doesn’t it count as $20 mil towards the tax if the Cubs pick up the option?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter)

 

Really? Doesn’t it count as $20 mil towards the tax if the Cubs pick up the option?

 

We had this conversation back during his hot streak in a thread I can't remember, but essentially, since his 6 million buyout is guaranteed, it has counted towards the luxury tax throughout his contract. So if they pick up the option, that 6 million has already been accounted for prior to this year. My phrasing above oversells my confidence in this interpretation, but it is more logical than that 6 million counting twice.

[squally1313]

And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.

 

I think Caratini's potential offensive upside is definitely better than any of the FA catchers out there, but I'm not as sold on his defensive/framing abilities. Overall to your point, he's cheap, he's fine, whatever...focus on the bigger issues.

[Sammy Sofa]

And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.

 

I think Caratini's potential offensive upside is definitely better than any of the FA catchers out there, but I'm not as sold on his defensive/framing abilities. Overall to your point, he's cheap, he's fine, whatever...focus on the bigger issues.

 

Oh, they could definitely upgrade defensively from him; he's just at least firmly middle of the pack enough that it's arguable whether or not it's worth spending the extra money to do so, relatively small as that would be.

[CP_414]

- Bring back Hamels(remember, the option is really 14 million for purposes that matter)

 

Really? Doesn’t it count as $20 mil towards the tax if the Cubs pick up the option?

 

We had this conversation back during his hot streak in a thread I can't remember, but essentially, since his 6 million buyout is guaranteed, it has counted towards the luxury tax throughout his contract. So if they pick up the option, that 6 million has already been accounted for prior to this year. My phrasing above oversells my confidence in this interpretation, but it is more logical than that 6 million counting twice.

 

Interesting. If so, it’s a no brainer to pick up that option.

[David]

damn it i won't miss russell but the more we talk about 2B options, i'm gonna miss having that insanely good of a DP combo

[Cubswin11]

And the more I think about it, the more I'm not really bothered by the idea of Caratini again being the backup catcher. Yeah, he stinks, but he's fine defensively/framing-wise, and almost any backup catcher you go out and get cheap is going to be a black hole offensively. That was just exposed so much more this season because the offense had SO many issues up and down for long stretches. It's sort of like a low grade backup QB position: if you get to the point where the backup seems like a real problem, you're kinda screwed to begin with because so many other things have gone wrong.

Caratini is like really bad though. He had 200 PAs, 50 catchers reached that, he ranked 41st in WAR amongst them, he was 37th in BB rate, 31st in K rate, 33rd in OBP, 43rd in SLG, 41st in wOBA, 40th in wRC+, 48th In DEF WAR, he ranked poorly in framing metrics too. He isn’t good.

 

I get it he’s the back up, like you said this guy isn’t going to be that good and have a flaw(s). But Caratini is bad, I want the backup catcher to at least be able to hit a little if he sucks on defense or be an elite defender/framer if he can’t hit and Caratini is none of those. There’s room for a backup upgrade here and it will make a difference. I think we all want Willy to play a little less to stay more fresh so I want a better option than Vic back there. A guy who frames well is probably what I prefer because hopefully he could help Willy with it and it helps the pitchers the most.

 

Maybe we also could get a team to dream on Vic being a thing as a switch hitter and could use him to attach to like Duensing or Kintzler (if the option is picked up) to dump that money.

Edited October 4, 2018 by Cubswin11

[davell]

Mark Gonzalez has an article out on who he expects back and who is expected to go.....

 

The surprises/interesting ones.....

 

Hamels-staying,says pitched well enough to earn option. Theo seems adamant too, so not a surprise.

Kintzler- staying, one of those options is used. His obviously.

Montgomery- staying, says he'll face similar swing role. Personally thought he may be expendable.

Quintana- staying, only surprised by comment saying Cubs would likely move on, if not for Darvish, Chatwood uncertainty.

Almora- staying.

Bote- staying, utility role next year.

Caratini - staying, versatility could lead to more playing time

Seal Boy- knows his role well

 

Chavez- going, says could earn multi year deal elsewhere

De La Rosa- going, says he filled a glaring need

Duensing- going, says ineffectiveness means no guarantees

Wilson- going, says pitched well enough to earn robust deal elsewhere

Happ- going, says he's trade fodder for pitching depth

Russell- going, says after DV, he's unlikely to return

Schwarber- going, says power makes him attractive to AL teams

 

Obviously, this seems to be opinion. But, it's possibly based on what he's heard. Anyway, some of these are very interesting.....

[Sammy Sofa]

But again, if the offense actually clicks again and doesn't have to deal with an ever-growing pile of slumps and injuries, it really doesn't matter who your backup catcher is. Caratini has enough of a chance be serviceable enough that it wouldn't matter much if he's the backup. If they can get someone who fulfills want you want cheap enough, great, but odds are that if they're try to go as cheap as possible (and they likely will given what else is out there to spend money on), then they're only going to end up with a marginal upgrade at best. It's not a critical enough spot to overspend on; if Caratini ends up sucking again, then oh well. Give Contreras the needed time off anyway, because if the backup catcher not hitting is such a huge problem, then things are already much worse of than that to begin with.