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Which Crazy Surprise Things Will Happen?

David

By David,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Which of these are most likely?  

162 members have voted

  1. 1. Which of these are most likely?

    • Ian Happ becomes a young-Zobrist-like WAR monster with 30+ HR power
      19
    • Javy learns how to walk a little and hit RHP better and unlocks superstar potential
      26
    • Rizzo or Bryant have sub-2 win seasons
      2
    • Contreras leads the team in WAR (by excellent performance, not default)
      21
    • Almora puts it together vs RHP and puts out a 4+ WAR season
      20
    • Darvish finishes top 2 in Cy Young
      12
    • Lester pitches himself out of the rotation
      4
    • Lester has a huge bounceback and leads the team in fWAR (again, by performance, not default)
      8
    • Chatwood figures it out, takes advantage of an elite Cubs infield defense to put up the best ERA on the staff
      13
    • Schwarber breaks out and hits for enough average to put up a .950 OPS
      33
    • Hendricks pitches himself out of the rotation and Montgomery steps in and never looks back
      4

David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
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At what WAR number would Contreras have led our team "by default?"

4-5ish

 

my point was that our best players would still have seasons that we'd expect out of them and he'd still beat them out

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chopsx9 Draft Eligible

chopsx9

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

I'm well past the point of being surprised if any pitcher puts up a bad year.

 

yeah, i mean, just look at our staff in the first half of last year

a down half isn't the same as having a full on bad year. If you are asking for surprises you can't eliminate your top notch starting staff doing poorly as a potential surprise.

 

I'd be surprised if the staff as a whole had a down year - any one of the individual pitchers - not at all.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Unfortunately I think Hendricks falling apart is the most likely by far. He's my favorite of our returning guys to watch pitch, but guys with well below average velocity are always walking a tightrope, and we saw him lose his velocity for much of last year already. When Hendricks goes bad, it's gonna happen really fast.

 

Otherwise I took the optimistic Darvish/Lester/Chatwood scenarios. I don't think any of those is very unreasonable. If not for my general distrust of pitchers, I'd take the over on the expectations for all three of them heading into this year.

 

For the hitters I expect a few of those to happen, but I have zero feel for which ones are actually most likely. Schwarber or Almora probably?

Aaron_Kennelly South Bend Cubs

Aaron_Kennelly

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Also, I am envisioning all three of these happening:

 

Darvish is top 2 in Cy Young, Chatwood has the best ERA on the staff, and Lester has the best fWAR on the staff. God-mode Cubs. 125 wins.

badger Draft Eligible

badger

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Who are these stick-in-the-mud people voting for the bad options. The hell is wrong with y’all?

 

been in a game thread recently...?

Tim MVP

Tim

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
Who are these stick-in-the-mud people voting for the bad options. The hell is wrong with y’all?

 

been in a game thread recently...?

Probably not in the last few months, why? :)

The SABR Gamer Prep Ball

The SABR Gamer

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
At what WAR number would Contreras have led our team "by default?"

4-5ish

 

my point was that our best players would still have seasons that we'd expect out of them and he'd still beat them out

 

I considered this option, but I just really expect Bryant to be in that 8 or more WAR category. I still think he has one more gear left offensively.

David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I don't think it's that crazy that Schwaber has a .950 OPS. I actually think it might be one of the safer predictions.

 

It's a pretty high bar...especially for a guy who prob profiles as a .250ish hitter at best in terms of average (especially with all the shifting against him). Only 10 qualified hitters topped that threshold last year.

 

The only .950+ guys who didn't hit .300 last year were Stanton and Judge, and they hit 50+ dongs.

entbird79 College Ball

entbird79

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I don't think it's that crazy that Schwaber has a .950 OPS. I actually think it might be one of the safer predictions.

 

It's a pretty high bar...especially for a guy who prob profiles as a .250ish hitter at best in terms of average (especially with all the shifting against him). Only 10 qualified hitters topped that threshold last year.

 

The only .950+ guys who didn't hit .300 last year were Stanton and Judge, and they hit 50+ dongs.

 

giphy.gif

Transmogrified Tiger All-Star

Transmogrified Tiger

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
They hit 223 last year with Happ being the only one that looks like it isn't decently likely to repeat. Give Bryant and Rizzo a few more from hitting with runners on base more often, a few more spread around from the ABs Jay isn't taking anymore, maybe a few more from Russell, and you're in the vicinity of 240. You'd need one of Bryant, Rizzo, or Contreras to go nuts relative to their history, possible but not terribly likely.
Bluescale College Ball

Bluescale

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
They hit 223 last year with Happ being the only one that looks like it isn't decently likely to repeat. Give Bryant and Rizzo a few more from hitting with runners on base more often, a few more spread around from the ABs Jay isn't taking anymore, maybe a few more from Russell, and you're in the vicinity of 240. You'd need one of Bryant, Rizzo, or Contreras to go nuts relative to their history, possible but not terribly likely.

 

Schwarber hitting 50 will help.

  • 1 month later...
David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
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Yeah, but putting Happ instead of Almora in your sig negates any good call you made.

i didn't even vote for that one

 

that said, happ has the same career fWAR as almora in about 2/3 the amount of games so i wouldn't go calling that one quite yet

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Yeah, but putting Happ instead of Almora in your sig negates any good call you made.

i didn't even vote for that one

 

that said, happ has the same career fWAR as almora in about 2/3 the amount of games so i wouldn't go calling that one quite yet

 

I would.

 

I'm going bold; once Happ gets sent down he's never coming back.

  • 1 month later...

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