Smyly for the camera

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[Bertz]

I don't actually like Smyly that much because of all the fly balls, but it's hard to argue with these type of deals. Lots of upside with little downside.

[jersey cubs fan]

TJS guy with value in 2nd year?

[Post Count Padder]

Yeah I've long been a fan of Smyly and like the potential for him to be part of the staff in 2019.

 

Also, how could his parents name him Drew instead of Guy?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

[Cubswin11]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

Would think we are targeting a more durable option for the 5th spot?

[jersey cubs fan]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

Would think we are targeting a more durable option for the 5th spot?

or a guy you can count on for ~125 innings with the expectation that smyly would be there by august?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

Would think we are targeting a more durable option for the 5th spot?

 

I was thinking maybe a shorter term option is on the table, now that I look at the rentals Corbin is the only name that would conceivably make sense.

[Tim]

Well, at least nobody will question when these guys go on a 10-day DL assignment.

[Splendid Splinter]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

 

I'm going to guess that they're going to look for a Brett Anderson type SP where it's a 1 year deal for that 5th spot and hopes he stays healthy.

[davell]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

 

Yeah, I'm wondering if this means its a short term contract guy now for the 5th spot. Hope not. Nice to add depth, but I think that 5 mill probably could be used for 2018 instead. But, we're certainly not done, see what else they've got coming obviously.

[squally1313]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

Short term fix instead of someone like cobb?

[Tim]

I wonder if they're looking at Smyly as being a reliever for the playoffs this year and in the mix for the rotation in 2019.

 

Basically, what I wanted to sign Pineda to do.

[Splendid Splinter]

I wonder if they're looking at Smyly as being a reliever for the playoffs this year and in the mix for the rotation in 2019.

 

Basically, what I wanted to sign Pineda to do.

 

Shouldn't Smyly be able to get some starts in Sept? Maybe even in Aug?

[davell]

If we do still trade for a front line starter, or sign Cobb, Smyly may be a Monty replacement.

[Cubswin11]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

Would think we are targeting a more durable option for the 5th spot?

 

I was thinking maybe a shorter term option is on the table, now that I look at the rentals Corbin is the only name that would conceivably make sense.

Got it, yeah duh. I should’ve gotten that. Maybe Chacin, Feldman, or Hellickson as FA. I guess the Harvey rumors may have some merit then if this is the route too. Maybe one of the Braves guys that has some options left?? Overall though don’t like this route and would like to have a little more certainty.

[DouglasDorsey]

If we do still trade for a front line starter, or sign Cobb, Smyly may be a Monty replacement.

 

This was my thought. Maybe he is next years Montgomery and we move Montgomery in the off season. (I don't know his contract situation so he could be a FA)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If we do still trade for a front line starter, or sign Cobb, Smyly may be a Monty replacement.

 

He definitely hedges a bit, but that's a hard sell for me. Regardless of Smyly the odds of viable spot-starters should go up as the season progresses with more time for the likes of Tseng/Mills/Alzolay/etc to make a mark.

[jersey cubs fan]

5 million towards the luxury tax this year to not really play a part on the team is non-trivial, but it most likely won't matter. Nice to stack some depth, I wonder if it implies anything about what they're planning for the last rotation spot.

[davell]

Right now, we're sitting around 131.658, for the LT. Plus, you've got to add for the pre arbs and the 16 mill for insurances. Might as well say 152ish. Leaving us 45 mill, to grab a starter, a pen guy, and in season moves. Plus, a backup C, another pen arm, maybe a backup OFer, if we get the first two done relatively cheaply.....

 

Here's the thing though. You're at 113.358 for NEXT years LT, with just Heyward, Lester, Zobrist, Quintana, Rizzo, Strop, Morrow, and Smyly accounted for. The arb raises for KB, Addy, and Hendricks will be substantial. Those 3 are projected for 16.1 as 1st year guys. That could come close to doubling, as 2nd year guys, as a total.

 

Then, you've got Schwarber, Javy, Carl, and Monty all hitting 1st year arb......Combined, I can see those arbs putting us at 148-150. You've still got to add pre arbs and insurances.....Conceivably, you're sitting around 170ish after that.

 

Add a Cobb and Reed to the mix and you're sitting at 195. With an LT of 205 and Bryce sitting firmly in the plans.... Again, no doubt in my mind we're going over the LT next year. But, I don't see us going 40 over it. And it'd be hard not to, with a Harper addition, plus Cobb and Reed, or any combo that puts an extra 25 mill onto our books for next year too.

 

I'm definitely starting to think that one of those moves wouldn't happen. And how trading for an Archer has significant added value to us, just based on these numbers.....

[Cubswin11]

https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/940780469997752321

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I like it. Obviously the main issue is with luxury tax implications. But if we get anything out of him in the playoffs this year, this deal becomes a great value.

[champaignchris]

I was thinking maybe a shorter term option is on the table, now that I look at the rentals Corbin is the only name that would conceivably make sense.

 

J.A. Happ might be another guy if the Jays decide to punt.

 

The Cubs probably wouldn't have to give up an actual asset to get Edinson Volquez from the Marlins and maybe he'd be good enough until the Cubs could get someone better (Stroman or Archer) at the deadline.

 

Ditto Matt Harvery.

 

But yeah, Corbin would be the best option that I can see.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I was thinking maybe a shorter term option is on the table, now that I look at the rentals Corbin is the only name that would conceivably make sense.

 

J.A. Happ might be another guy if the Jays decide to punt.

 

The Cubs probably wouldn't have to give up an actual asset to get Edinson Volquez from the Marlins and maybe he'd be good enough until the Cubs could get someone better (Stroman or Archer) at the deadline.

 

Ditto Matt Harvery.

 

But yeah, Corbin would be the best option that I can see.

 

Volquez had Tommy John surgery late in the 2017 season.

[Cubswin11]

Right now, we're sitting around 131.658, for the LT. Plus, you've got to add for the pre arbs and the 16 mill for insurances. Might as well say 152ish. Leaving us 45 mill, to grab a starter, a pen guy, and in season moves. Plus, a backup C, another pen arm, maybe a backup OFer, if we get the first two done relatively cheaply.....

 

Here's the thing though. You're at 113.358 for NEXT years LT, with just Heyward, Lester, Zobrist, Quintana, Rizzo, Strop, Morrow, and Smyly accounted for. The arb raises for KB, Addy, and Hendricks will be substantial. Those 3 are projected for 16.1 as 1st year guys. That could come close to doubling, as 2nd year guys, as a total.

 

Then, you've got Schwarber, Javy, Carl, and Monty all hitting 1st year arb......Combined, I can see those arbs putting us at 148-150. You've still got to add pre arbs and insurances.....Conceivably, you're sitting around 170ish after that.

 

Add a Cobb and Reed to the mix and you're sitting at 195. With an LT of 205 and Bryce sitting firmly in the plans.... Again, no doubt in my mind we're going over the LT next year. But, I don't see us going 40 over it. And it'd be hard not to, with a Harper addition, plus Cobb and Reed, or any combo that puts an extra 25 mill onto our books for next year too.

 

I'm definitely starting to think that one of those moves wouldn't happen. And how trading for an Archer has significant added value to us, just based on these numbers.....

When do we get the new TV deal? After next year? Maybe the just plan to say horsefeathers the LT (not Dodgers level disregard but fine going 30-50 over) starting next year with that coming in to place.