Should The Cubs "Punt" FA This Off-Season?

[CubsWin]

By "punt", I mean stay away from any multi-year contracts over $17-18 million and avoiding contracts longer than 2 years in general.

 

Clearly, they'll need to sign free agents specifically in the bullpen and very likely a starter or two. But should the Cubs fill the closer's role on a one-year deal at a higher AAV or even risk going with Edwards to start the season and see how he does? Should they seek to buy one or two FA starters but more for competition at the 5th spot and trade a major league hitter for a young-ish, controllable starter or go after bringing back Arrieta or signing Darvish?

 

With this roster clearly still in the heart of a championship window, is it worth risking going into the season with an improved but more patchwork bullpen without a clear cut, dominant closer? Should they instead have a bullpen populated by Edwards, Strop, Wilson and some FAs like Bryan Shaw, Pat Neshak and/or Juan Nicasio in order to go full out in 2018's off season and sign Andrew Miller or Craig Kimbrel?

 

Should the Cubs trade Kyle Schwarber for a mid-20s starter this year with the idea of signing Bryce Harper to play the OF in 2019 or sign Machado to play 3rd and move Bryant to LF? Or should they hang onto his rare left-handed power bat for the years to come and trade Happ for pitching instead leaving less positional flexibility to add an OFer like Harper (or the Machado signing with Bryant filling left)?

 

In short, it could be seen as burning a year in the middle of a championship window if they roll the dice this season (and fail) while holding out for 2 (or more) really big FAs from the 2019 class.

 

Your thoughts?

[jersey cubs fan]

it's not out of the realm, but they probably have to sign at least one person to a 3+ year contract.

[The_Achiever]

I'm not ready to trade any of the young guys (unless it's a great offer), so I'm cool with singing an Alex Cobb-type and then rebuilding the bullpen.

 

Needs will pop up during the season and I also hope they plan on making a big push for Harper next year.

[CP_414]

I'd avoid the biggest money players on the FA market this year if possible.

 

I wouldn't trade Schwarber now to open a spot for Harper. I'd be open to trading him for a cost controlled pitcher, but don't feel obligated to do so now for Harper. I expect that someone will be traded for a controlable pitcher, but still doubt that it will be Schwarber. If Harper wants to sign here the Cubs won't have a problem creating a spot for him.

 

The top of this FA class sucks, but there are lots of good value relief pitching options. I'd grab as many of them as possible and save the big money for next winter. Make a trade for a starting pitcher and sign a cheap short term starting pitcher. I don't think that is a setback for 2018. They can improve the bullpen and rotation without giving out a multi year deal at $18M AAV.

[davell]

I think they'll trade for the cost controlled starting pitcher. Likely get a guy with a short term deal for the 5th spot. Sign a backup C and a reserve position player that's got the ability to handle 300-400 PA. Again, a short term deal.

 

The pen gets interesting though. I think they'll almost have to hand out a 3 year deal, probably a second deal as well that's at least 2 years.

 

Lots of other options though. I can't wait to see who we're being connected with, to give us a better sense of where things may be headed.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs can spend pretty significantly this year and still stay under the luxury tax and be able to make a big signing like Harper the next year without going to 40+ over the luxury tax, which I think they intend to fly by for at least a couple years starting in 2019.

[UMFan83]

I had a similar thought just because I want Harper so badly. It might not be a terrible approach to load up on bullpen arms and gamble on starting pitching and see if you can piece together a pitching staff to make the playoffs. Try to find starters who are either cheap relative to their potential upside (like Cobb), or veterans willing to sign for 1-2 years (similar to Lackey 2 offseasons ago but less douchey). Obviously you can also pull the trigger on a trade for a starter that won't screw up finances that badly.

 

The idea is to sneak into the playoffs and have a BP that you can trust 4-5 guys deep and at least 3 very good starters.

 

Sounds good in theory but with teams like the Brewers and Cardinals looking to be very aggressive this offseason, it could also easily lead to missing the playoffs.

[Cubswin11]

I definitely could see them not giving out the one big deal (like the Darvish 6/160+). But I think they will (and kinda have to unless there's some crazy trades) spend/commit a good amount in the aggregate on multiple guys to fill holes and it wouldn't surprise me if the total commitment was pushing $90 million (2-3 relief pitchers, at least one SP FA, back up catcher and a backup player if a positional player is traded, plus any traded players salary).

[squally1313]

Barring anything seriously unexpected, we're going to go into next year as overwhelming favorites to win the division, which makes me very hesitant to do anything drastic. Obviously the pitching is a concern going forward, but I don't see any real fixes in this offseason. If the right trade comes along, I trust Theo to take advantage. But I'd be totally fine going into next year with 'standard' replacements for Jake and Lackey, a couple bullpen pieces, and whoever we need to fill out the bench.

[Bertz]

Let's assume the Cub's payroll limit is the luxury tax. and that MLBTR's arb estimates are pretty on point. The Cubs have

 

~65 million in free space this year (before cutting Rondon or Grimm)

~55 million in space next year

~45-50 million in space in 2020

 

That's a ton of money to spend. I assume the goal is to get one of Harper/Machado next year, which means 2020 will be tight. For that reason I doubt we shop at the tippy top of the pitching market (Darvish, Jake, Wade), but I don't think fitting an Alex Cobb and a Jake McGee into the picture is that hard.

 

There's a lot of ways I imagine we could use our space this year that don't hurt us down the road. A big one would be to fill at least one of our major holes by acquiring an expensive one year commitment. A trade for someone like Brandon McCarthy or JA Happ for the rotation, or Brad Zeigler to fill one of our bullpen spots.

We might also see some moves in the name of creative accounting (the luxury tax is based on AAV and not actual salary). The big one would be deals that buy out KB's arb years or Q or Rizzo's option years. Another, unlikely option would be a Heyward deal where we pay his 2018 salary and also most of his 21-23 salary, but not so much in 19-20.

 

And all this is if we have to stay under the tax. In reality, we probably want to stay under for 2018 and then won't care anymore because of the tv money.