Darvish traded to Dodgers

[David]

If those are Vegas's odds, oh giddy

 

what do you mean?

[Agony and Ivy]

If those are Vegas's odds, oh giddy

 

what do you mean?

 

Not sure what he meant but I'm seeing these odds....

 

Dodgers +300 (25%)

Astros +500 (16.7%)

Cubs +700 (12.5%)

Nats +700

Indians +800 (11.1%)

Red Sox +850 (10.5%)

Yankees +1200 (7.7%)

Royals +2000 (4.8%)

DBacks +2500 (3.8%)

Rockies +3500 (2.8%)

 

If I was laying a bet tonight I'd think the Yankees are where I'm laying my money. They're going to win that division and once they do their road becomes much easier.

[David]

I still have the Red Sox winning the AL East

 

dbacks seem like a good value. rockies too.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, I'd only lay money on those 2

[Agony and Ivy]

I still have the Red Sox winning the AL East

 

dbacks seem like a good value. rockies too.

 

I like the DBacks value more than the Rockies just because of the pitching but the Rockies bullpen can be lights out at times. I have a feeling Arizona is going to be a very tough out for LA if they get out of the coin flip game.

[David]

I still have the Red Sox winning the AL East

 

dbacks seem like a good value. rockies too.

 

I like the DBacks value more than the Rockies just because of the pitching but the Rockies bullpen can be lights out at times. I have a feeling Arizona is going to be a very tough out for LA if they get out of the coin flip game.

yeah, i mean, without even looking at the baseball portion of it, if you're giving me what amounts to +1750 or +1250 (adjusted for their approximate odds of getting past the WC round) on an NLDS team, i'll take it. it's +EV.

 

prob still gonna lose, obviously, but at least you're getting a worthwhile payout if it goes your way.

[Brian707]

I still have the Red Sox winning the AL East

 

dbacks seem like a good value. rockies too.

 

I like the DBacks value more than the Rockies just because of the pitching but the Rockies bullpen can be lights out at times. I have a feeling Arizona is going to be a very tough out for LA if they get out of the coin flip game.

yeah, i mean, without even looking at the baseball portion of it, if you're giving me what amounts to +1750 or +1250 (adjusted for their approximate odds of getting past the WC round) on an NLDS team, i'll take it. it's +EV.

 

prob still gonna lose, obviously, but at least you're getting a worthwhile payout if it goes your way.

 

Bet them both at +2500 and +3500. Then if one gets to the NLCS hedge, and if they get to the WS hedge again.. The only way you would lose money is if they get bounced in the NLDS.

 

Bet $100 on Coloardo at +3500, bet $100 on Arizona at +2500 =$200 investment.

 

Now this is just a guess.. Lets say Arizona gets to the NLCS against the Cubs (who are a -150 favorite). you lay $600 on the Cubs, if the Cubs win you get $400 for a profit of $200 after hedging.

 

Lets say the Diamondbacks win and play the Yankees who are a -150 favorite. You bet $1200 to win $800 on the Yankees . Yankees win you profit $400

 

Or the Diamondbacks win you win $3500 minus your headging $2000 = Profit of $1500

 

If my math is correct the following happens with either Arizona or Colorado(obviously if its Colorado winning the WS your total profit is $2500 not $1500

[cubsclapp]

I still have the Red Sox winning the AL East

 

dbacks seem like a good value. rockies too.

 

I like the DBacks value more than the Rockies just because of the pitching but the Rockies bullpen can be lights out at times. I have a feeling Arizona is going to be a very tough out for LA if they get out of the coin flip game.

 

I agree. Before tonight's blowout, anyway, the Diamondbacks were third in run differential and second in the majors in starting pitching ERA, despite pitching half their games at Chase Field (Coors Jr.). Their SP fWAR is behind only the Dodgers.

 

And they've of course added a huge bat in JD Martinez, even if his defense will make Schwarber look like Heyward in the outfield.

 

Greinke will go in the WC game obviously (so then Game 4 of the NLDS), but Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, and Taijuan Walker are all still very good. The lineup is pretty much ass at the bottom, but Pollock, Peralta, Goldschmidt, Lamb, and Martinez are a terrific top-5. I would not be in the least bit surprised if they beat the Dodgers. It would be at least a 35% shot, anyway.

 

The Rockies? Well, even with playoff randomness and basebally things happening, it would be super tough. Jon Gray has been up and down since returning, and their other young arms have predictably been regressing. Their lineup is awful after Arenado and Blackmon. They would probably need Coors Field weirdness to help out a lot.

[weis21]

 

I like the DBacks value more than the Rockies just because of the pitching but the Rockies bullpen can be lights out at times. I have a feeling Arizona is going to be a very tough out for LA if they get out of the coin flip game.

yeah, i mean, without even looking at the baseball portion of it, if you're giving me what amounts to +1750 or +1250 (adjusted for their approximate odds of getting past the WC round) on an NLDS team, i'll take it. it's +EV.

 

prob still gonna lose, obviously, but at least you're getting a worthwhile payout if it goes your way.

 

Bet them both at +2500 and +3500. Then if one gets to the NLCS hedge, and if they get to the WS hedge again.. The only way you would lose money is if they get bounced in the NLDS.

 

Bet $100 on Coloardo at +3500, bet $100 on Arizona at +2500 =$200 investment.

 

Now this is just a guess.. Lets say Arizona gets to the NLCS against the Cubs (who are a -150 favorite). you lay $600 on the Cubs, if the Cubs win you get $400 for a profit of $200 after hedging.

 

Lets say the Diamondbacks win and play the Yankees who are a -150 favorite. You bet $1200 to win $800 on the Yankees . Yankees win you profit $400

 

Or the Diamondbacks win you win $3500 minus your headging $2000 = Profit of $1500

 

If my math is correct the following happens with either Arizona or Colorado(obviously if its Colorado winning the WS your total profit is $2500 not $1500

[Derwood]

Adrian Beltre is reportedly pissed about this trade, and now isn't so sure about finishing his career with Texas

[weis21]

Adrian Beltre is reportedly pissed about this trade, and now isn't so sure about finishing his career with Texas

doug gottlieb says its roid rage more than likely

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Man, I can't wait to bounce their asses from the playoffs again.

[bukie]

Man, I can't wait to bounce their asses from the playoffs again.

I don't think the Cubs are slipping into the wild card, so they won't get the chance.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Greinke will go in the WC game obviously (so then Game 4 of the NLDS), but Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, and Taijuan Walker are all still very good.

 

If I can nitpick, are they? I mean, they have undeniably pitched well, and I believe in a couple of those guys to various extents, but I'm also getting a bit of a first half Brewers offense vibe. There's some indicators that make it at least somewhat sustainable, but color me extremely skeptical that Zack Godley is going to run a .256 BABIP going forward.

 

I do like the half of their offense that is good though, and it doesn't take much to tip a playoff series. I just don't know if the roster design is particularly well suited for upsetting one of the 3 divisional mainstays.

 

EDIT: They also just started a brutal back half schedule. 16 games in August against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Astros. September is a bit better with only 10 against the Rockies and Dodgers(and none after 9/15), but if one of the Central teams gets hot I could see their wild card seat getting pretty hot by the last 2 weeks of the season.

[Agony and Ivy]

Greinke will go in the WC game obviously (so then Game 4 of the NLDS), but Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, and Taijuan Walker are all still very good.

 

If I can nitpick, are they? I mean, they have undeniably pitched well, and I believe in a couple of those guys to various extents, but I'm also getting a bit of a first half Brewers offense vibe. There's some indicators that make it at least somewhat sustainable, but color me extremely skeptical that Zack Godley is going to run a .256 BABIP going forward.

 

I do like the half of their offense that is good though, and it doesn't take much to tip a playoff series. I just don't know if the roster design is particularly well suited for upsetting one of the 3 divisional mainstays.

 

EDIT: They also just started a brutal back half schedule. 16 games in August against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Astros. September is a bit better with only 10 against the Rockies and Dodgers(and none after 9/15), but if one of the Central teams gets hot I could see their wild card seat getting pretty hot by the last 2 weeks of the season.

 

I do think if the DBacks get in they are a tough out. But now that I'm going through some data, they have a 72 teams wRC+ against lefties, which is the worst in baseball so that probably doesn't bode well if they get the privilege. But, since that is park adjusted we can look at wOBA, and nope they're still terrible at .294. Their team slash line against lefties is .232/.301/.389. I'd feel better about them getting lucky and beating a Kershaw or Hill if they didn't have to burn Greinke in the WCG.

[David]

with the way that facing lefties is practically a cheat code for us, the idea of struggling badly vs lefties as a team is so weird to me

[We Got The Whole 9]

Speaking of hitting lefties, whatever Rizzo did a few years back to start crushing them, I want him to put Kyle on that same program. This dude's too good to be a platoon player.

[Brian]

with the way that facing lefties is practically a cheat code for us, the idea of struggling badly vs lefties as a team is so weird to me

 

Didn't the '04 team or the '07/'08 team that were both loaded with righty mashers suck against lefties? I remember dreading crappy soft tossing lefties, because it was nearly always awful.

[David]

i'm pretty sure the 08 team absolutely murdered lefties

 

don't remember really on the others. maybe the 04 squad.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

'08 Cubs were T-5th in wRC+ v. LHP

 

'04 Cubs were 23rd