Who Will Be The Cubs Next Top 25 Prospect?

[CubsWin]

Eloy already is on some lists. Obvious choices like Happ and Cease shouldn't be included. In your mind, who has the ceiling and the likelihood to reach it amongst the rest?

 

De La Cruz seems like the closest, safest bet at this point. Albertos? Sierra? Ademan? Wilson? Or is there no one currently in the organization that has that kind of potential...

[Tryptamine]

Boring pick, but Jose Albertos.

[toonsterwu]

de la Cruz is the safe choice, but since it's already been mentioned, I'll go off the walls a bit and go with DJ Wilson.

 

I guess Galindo/Pieters could be mentioned.

 

It's also possible that the next top 25 is someone from the draft/next international signing crop

[davell]

I'll be boring and say Cease. I'll go a bit further and say its by mid season, with him getting to start in MB and dominating.

[toonsterwu]

Oh, if cease counts, then yes, he would top my list. Midseason is bold, though. He would really have to get out of the gate hot, and be working deep (at least 5) into games, I think, to jump to top 25 by midseason. Here's hoping.

[CubsWin]

Obvious choices like Happ and Cease shouldn't be included.

[CubsWin]

Between FA, including being pretty obvious favorites for Otani, and trades while the lineup is cheap and prime it is probably going to be extremely hard for an in house arm prospect to get a starter or even relief gig with the ML club.

Just curious. What leads you to believe the Cubs are obvious favorites for Otani? That would be great news!

[CubsWin]

Between FA, including being pretty obvious favorites for Otani, and trades while the lineup is cheap and prime it is probably going to be extremely hard for an in house arm prospect to get a starter or even relief gig with the ML club.

Just curious. What leads you to believe the Cubs are obvious favorites for Otani? That would be great news!

 

See the Otani thread and don't consider it news, more like a well thought out #hottake

Okay, so after reading the thread, all 8 pages of it, here's what you wrote about your reasoning as to why the Cubs are Otani's obvious choice:

 

He's the kid who wanted to come to America out of HS and almost signed with the Dodgers. I've kind of assumed the Cubs have had him reserved since that didn't go down. The narrative I run with is that the Cubs, a flagship franchise for the MLB, have never gotten a Japanese superstar and are not the global presence that the Yankees and Dodgers. He would be the guy who establishes the Cubs as a global baseball "power," or at least that would be the hope.

_______________________________________

 

It irks me to not see the Cubs here out of principle. One because they're just the obvious landing spot for Otani - the age, the SP need, their want for an international level superstar, the versatility, and just where we are in baseball history. The only team I'm even going to pretend they are competing with is the Dodgers. Two because it feels like a whole lot of people are still playing dumb on the Cubs' spending power moving forward. It is as if this isn't one of the three entertainment capitals in America, with arguably baseball's biggest individual domestic fan base and a growing one internationally, on a path to basically just be printing money by the end of the decade. The Braves, for horsefeathers's sake!

_______________________________________

 

No one wants to say the Cubs are the easy favorites for Otani because his FA alone will be a massive running story, but they're the favorites. I view him landing with the Cubs as inevitable and will be stunned if someone else does.

It seems your reasoning is the Cubs are the obvious favorites because:

 

1. The Dodgers didn't get him in 2012 because the Cubs "had him reserved".

2. The Cubs are a flagship franchise who've never had a Japanese superstar.

3. The Cubs have a clear need for a young starting pitcher who has versatility and is an international star.

4. The Cubs are historically great right now and have money to spend.

 

I get #4. Who wouldn't want to play for the Cubs right now and they will have a lot of money coming off the books after this season.

 

The rest of it sounds like you believe Otani cares about the needs of his landing spot more than his own or that the choice isn't really his and MLB controls who gets this guy. The assumption being that MLB will see more dollars if he goes to the Cubs so they'll pull the strings to make that happen. Is any of that accurate? I don't want to misinterpret you.

 

Besides that reasoning, you state that it's your assumption and reiterate that it's obvious and inevitable. Am I misunderstanding what you wrote?

 

According the rest of the thread, the latest fact-based reporting is that Otani expects to be posted after this season (with one tweet that he MIGHT wait until after the 2018 NPB season which would be great for the Cubs), and that MLB will not make an exception for Otani in the new CBA. If he gets posted after this season, the Cubs wouldn't be able to spend more than $300,000 on him until July 2, 2018 while other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, etc.) would be able to spend close to $9-10 million.

 

It seems like the best case scenarios for the Cubs are he waits until the 2018 post-season or he just really wants to play for the Cubs, doesn't care about money and wants to get started as soon as possible so he signs for $300,000.

 

Without any real reason to think he will wait until after the 2018 season or knowledge that he wants to only play for the Cubs, I don't see anything that gives the Cubs a good chance of getting him much less makes that the obvious result. But I'm probably not reading this right.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I'll say Paredes. I'm using the decision to give him a little taste of South Bend at age 17 as evidence that the FO thinks very highly of him (on top of the strong debut in Arizona).

[craig]

I think the Cubs have very few guys who have any reasonable shot to become a top-25 prospect.

 

Eloy, obviously.

Happ, very little chance. He's not that kind of a prospect, doesn't have the defense or contact or power to be a top-25.

Cease obviously has that capacity, he's got exceptional talent.

 

Other than Eloy and Cease, I'd think to get into top 25 it pretty much has to be a pitcher. de la Cruz or Albertos have the kind of stuff and upside to possibly get into a top-25, if they develop right.

 

No clue with the teenagers, of course. It's too early to rule out that perhaps Sierra might evolve into a force. Or that maybe some young pitcher will mature into an extra zillion mph and become a force. (Marquez? Hudson?) Maybe Morel will add on 45 pounds of muscle and be a totally different physiqe, who knows.

 

But as I see it now, I'd say that Eloy, Cease, de la Cruz, and Albertos are really the only visible guys with the upside to even ideally end up in a top-25.

[davell]

Clifton showed quite a bit of improvement from within his last year. If he continues on the same upward trend, he'd push himself from mid rotation type to front line starter. For guys CURRENTLY in the system that aren't supposed to listed, I think I'd bet on him over anyone.

 

But, I'd bet on the 1st rounder this year, over Clifton. I can see them getting a super talented guy at that spot on a large over slot.

[toonsterwu]

I have always liked Clifton, but I think there's a very, very low chance that he ever jumps into a top 25 overall prospect position. At this juncture, he'd have to take a major leap in stuff to jump up there, and while it's not impossible, at this juncture of his career, with his body filled out from his prep days already ... it's hard to imagine. Not impossible ... but I'd be surprised.

 

I'm far more liable to put a wait-and-see on Albertos than de la Cruz, personally. Too many prep/youngsters who could throw hard but as they moved up, their stuff backed up a bit from the lower level days when they just let it rip. Add in the limited body of work and limited physical upside from right now ... I'm just a bit more wary. de la Cruz is a relatively fresh arm having made the move to pitching several years ago. I've always been a sucker for a pitcher that could get groundballs, and by most accounts, he gets good action and velocity on his fastball. Secondary reports are very positive. Of course, we have to wait and see how it holds up for the course of a season in full season ball (still think sending him to South Bend makes the most sense to start), but the combination of superb reports on stuff combined with the physical frame is an enticing combination.

 

Btw, I certainly didn't mean de la Cruz was a safe bet to be top 25 at some point in his career. Just meant that beyond Cease/Happ/Eloy that de la Cruz was the most likely bet, due to upside, but obviously, pitcher, and he has to carry a full workload first.

[toonsterwu]

As for Otani ... I'd love to get him, obviously, but my betting money would be on the Yankees. They have a strong presence in Japan, but leaving all that aside, they have a desperate need for pitching and likely the ability to trade for more bonus pool money (iirc, you can trade up to 75% of the pool). Who knows if the presence of Tanaka there will be a positive or a negative, but on the surface, it might seem like a positive. Obviously, we're limited next offseason, so Otani would have to delay things, which doesn't sound like it'll happen.

 

Although, thinking about that 75% thing ... maybe that gives the small markets with the bigger pools a slightly better chance. Specifically, I'm wondering about teams like Arizona and Baltimore (Duquette is active in Asia).

[craig]

It's pretty remote that any non-Eloy will ever make end-of-season Top-25 lists. Top 25 should be somebody with some serious tools, pretty well rounded, pitcher better have a pretty strong arm and good stuff, a hitter better be reasonably toolsy. Top-25 guys should have potential, if health and things go right, to possibly become stars, and certainly to have a very reasonable shot to become solid asset starters.

 

Cease has the big arm to make that kind status. Whether he'll stay healthy enough, improve his secondaries, and improve his control enough so that he projects as a starter, less than likely. Unlikely that he'll ever be Top-25, but he's at least got the tools/upside.

 

Happ, he's a nice Top-100 guy, and seems a fairly safe guy to have an extended major-league career. But being so low on the defensive spectrum, not having big power, and K'ing so often, it's hard to see the "star" or "asset starter on a winning team" profile for him as a left-field prospect. I'll be pretty surprised if he ever makes a top-25.

 

de la Cruz and Albertos, very unlikely to stay healthy, and have the performance. Who "will be" top 25, no "safety" that either "will be". But if the question is who "might be", they've at least got a chance. ***IF*** everything goes perfectly, they would seem to have the stuff and perhaps the physical capacity to someday be viewed as a top-25, could-be-asset-rotation-pitcher with good arm and good stuff. Long shots, but at least they've got an outside shot.

 

This year, we'll have two top-30 picks. There's the possibility that if you get lucky, you could get a high-talent player there. A pitcher who throws hard enough to make a top-25, if their control and secondaries develop you could get a top-25 there, if the guy stays healthy.

 

They gave Sierra a strong bonus, maybe Sierra will develop great kind of ala Eloy, and turn into something. Remotely unlikely, but too soon to be certain the answer is no. Probably not too soon based on Arguello type stuff that Ademan will need have the power to be a top-25.

 

But most likely the Cubs situation is that after Eloy, getting middle-of-the-order stud hitters isn't going to be happening. Maybe Cease has an outside chance, but getting rotation aces with overwhelming stuff isn't going to be likely, either. If we're going to get a high-end pitcher, it may need to more by virtue of great finesse and command than by ace-like stuff. (More the Hendricks-model high-end guy than the Verlander or Syndegaard model.)

[Tim]

I honestly still can't conceive this potential TOR upside for de la Cruz. He had a strong 40 innings in 2016.

I think you've mentioned that once or twice.

[CubsWin]

It's pretty remote that any non-Eloy will ever make end-of-season Top-25 lists. Top 25 should be somebody with some serious tools, pretty well rounded, pitcher better have a pretty strong arm and good stuff, a hitter better be reasonably toolsy. Top-25 guys should have potential, if health and things go right, to possibly become stars, and certainly to have a very reasonable shot to become solid asset starters.

 

Cease has the big arm to make that kind status. Whether he'll stay healthy enough, improve his secondaries, and improve his control enough so that he projects as a starter, less than likely. Unlikely that he'll ever be Top-25, but he's at least got the tools/upside.

 

Happ, he's a nice Top-100 guy, and seems a fairly safe guy to have an extended major-league career. But being so low on the defensive spectrum, not having big power, and K'ing so often, it's hard to see the "star" or "asset starter on a winning team" profile for him as a left-field prospect. I'll be pretty surprised if he ever makes a top-25.

 

de la Cruz and Albertos, very unlikely to stay healthy, and have the performance. Who "will be" top 25, no "safety" that either "will be". But if the question is who "might be", they've at least got a chance. ***IF*** everything goes perfectly, they would seem to have the stuff and perhaps the physical capacity to someday be viewed as a top-25, could-be-asset-rotation-pitcher with good arm and good stuff. Long shots, but at least they've got an outside shot.

 

This year, we'll have two top-30 picks. There's the possibility that if you get lucky, you could get a high-talent player there. A pitcher who throws hard enough to make a top-25, if their control and secondaries develop you could get a top-25 there, if the guy stays healthy.

 

They gave Sierra a strong bonus, maybe Sierra will develop great kind of ala Eloy, and turn into something. Remotely unlikely, but too soon to be certain the answer is no. Probably not too soon based on Arguello type stuff that Ademan will need have the power to be a top-25.

 

But most likely the Cubs situation is that after Eloy, getting middle-of-the-order stud hitters isn't going to be happening. Maybe Cease has an outside chance, but getting rotation aces with overwhelming stuff isn't going to be likely, either. If we're going to get a high-end pitcher, it may need to more by virtue of great finesse and command than by ace-like stuff. (More the Hendricks-model high-end guy than the Verlander or Syndegaard model.)

I agree. After Eloy and possibly Cease, it's gets really tough to find someone who profiles as a top-25 prospect currently in the Cubs system.

 

Now, as you talked about, some guy might emerge over time via steady or near perfect development, and someone can always breakout like Contreras, but both of those situations are rare. To be fair, though, they've been less rare under this Cubs scouting and development staff of late.

 

How many times have we seen other teams or previous Cubs FOs fail to develop a top IFA guy (or even a top but raw American-born prospect)? Luis Encarnacion (Phillies), Micker Zapata (White Sox), Michael Ynoa (A's), Adonys Cardona (Blue Jays), Gustavo Cabrera (Giants), Mark Malave (Cubs under Hendry), the list goes on.

 

Much of that has to do with how young these guys are at the time they're signed. It's a very difficult thing to do to identify a baseball prospect at that age, be right about what you saw and successfully develop them into the top prospect you thought they could be. It's easy to whiff on those guys. But that's my point. This Cubs scouting and development staff did it twice with Torres and Jimenez.

 

That's why I found this question so interesting and wanted to hear this community's thoughts on the subject. Given that no one outside of Eloy and possibly Cease have a decent shot at being top 25 someday, but assuming the Cubs have a well above average ability to develop players and have I what I consider to be a deep system at the moment, who might be the next one?

 

I've enjoyed reading people's responses. Albertos is such an unknown but has been written about glowingly by some that he makes sense. Sierra and Ademan are also such unknowns and that won't change until they get seen at some higher levels. Then there's D.J. Wilson or Paredes. I appreciate everyone who's responded with their thoughts.

[toonsterwu]

With the de la Cruz reports, it really comes down to, I guess, the changeup. Off the top, the most pessimistic report I saw on him was a BP thing where they still slapped possible future 60's on his fastball/curveball, but they slapped a very low grade on the changeup. By most accounts, that changeup is a work in progress. The BP report I recall and the BA report both indicate his potential to drive the ball downhill and pound the bottom of the zone with a fastball with good life.

 

If BA's report on his changeup development is accurate (in the writeup that was posted in the other thread, they said he was earning potential future plus grades on the changeup), then that's a pitcher with size, frame, good life on the fastball, and 3 possible future plus pitches. If that's the case, then it's understandable why Manuel noted in the chat that some Cubs officials felt he had a higher ceiling than Cease.

 

Of course, if I'm being fair ... it seems like the only reports that glowing about the potential of the change came from BA, so anything less than a future plus pitch, then yes, de la Cruz's ceiling would probably be more in that murky mid-rotation ceiling range. Also, we are talking about possible future grades, so who knows if the development trends that way. After all, he has to show he can carry that stuff for a full-season's workload AND maintain the good command. Finally, as BA leans heavily on Cubs org sources, there's a possible bias factor in there that should be considered.

 

But if the question is why some are slapping TOR on de la Cruz, then that's the case right there - potential 3 future plus pitches, size, frame, physical upside, and command. Certainly, production is a necessary component, but as typical with most prospect-oriented things, the further away and younger a guy is, the more liable that the assessments will be based upon physical potential/stuff.

[CubsWin]

We're not exactly talking a pro ball pup here despite his distance from he majors. I can't think of many/any TOR starters who didn't throw a season of full season ball until his 5th year. I just don't see any markers for a TOR ceiling. Most of his pluses aren't exactly as rare these days, some velocity size and a breaking ball are what's consistent, and there's some big holes in his case for TOR.

While I agree that De La Cruz is not likely a TOR guy (and by TOR I mean a 1 or a 2), I think the whole 5th year thing being a disqualifying factor or even a mark against an IFA prospect who signed as a 16 or 17-year-old is pretty weak.

 

Oscar was 21 all year and would've had a full season in Low-A if not for the injury. That's right on schedule for most prospects. Plus he was converted to pitcher from SS.

[CubsWin]

That's right on schedule for most prospects. Plus he was converted to pitcher from SS.

 

TOR pitchers aren't most prospects and the conversion was ~5 years ago.

Right. I said I didn't consider him a likely TOR. In the first sentence of the post you responded to.

 

I was speaking to using the whole 5 year knock against IFA prospects who are signed at a very young age. I don't think it holds much water. Especially if the guy wasn't a pitcher prior to signing. I'd say, all told, he's done very well considering.

[CubsWin]

lRight. I said I didn't consider him a likely TOR. In the first sentence of the post you responded to.

 

Sure and that doesn't, or shouldn't, get to change the context behind what I said. The discussion was not de la Cruz's pace for an average-ish prospect, but as a guy with TOR potential.

Just because one human being as the ability to reach their potential faster than another or gets lucky and has an epiphany at a younger age, doesn't diminish the potential of the guy who gets there at a different pace. Ceiling is ceiling. We've seen that a lot in this sport as well as others.

 

But if you believe differently, that's cool with me.

[craig]

de la Cruz is on a non-traditional development path for a Latin prospect. But I don't see it as being necessarily problematic. The chance to become a good major-league starter is still there, even if it's very unlikely that he'll be a good starter; much less likely than that that he'll ever crack consensus top-25; and much less likely than that that he'll ever function as a TOR guy. But yeah, if he were to eventually develop into a good, effective major-league starter, and be qualified as a #3/#2 type guy, that would be hugely valuable for the Cubs. Is that likely? Of course not. But it's not beyond plausible.

*I also think we really want ace/TOR, for good reason. But the value of mid-rotation or 3/2 type guys should not be underestimated. Particularly on a team with GREAT defense, a 3/2 type guy can help win a ton of games, especially if a really strong bullpen behind could be assembled, and a strong, consistent offense maintained.

 

On de la Cruz, he's 21, so he's obviously not young for a guy with so little full-season experience, particularly a Latin prospect. Very rare that a Latin kid who's coming into his age-22 season and only has 40 full-season innings will end up being an asset rotation guy. But his schedule is somewhat unique.

1. Obviously lost most of a full-season to injury.

2. He also signed relatively late, so that he'd only pitched 11 innings before age 19.

*Clearly most good Latin big-league pitchers were signed young and had their pro careers started before age 19, so that as 19-20-21 came along, they were moving up the ladder. Perhaps the fact that Oscar didn't is a red flag. But may simply be that when you basically start at 19, and then lose 21, you're going to be behind the normal age curve.

 

Which is certainly a reason why a guy is less likely to make top-25 lists, which was the original question. If hypothetically de la Cruz was to have an excellent season, perhaps start at Myrtle and finish at Tennessee, the same body/physique/velocity/control-development-or-lack-thereof would naturally be more likely to make top-25's as a 20-year-old than as a 22-year-old. But if he's on track to develop into a capable rotation starter, not sure it's really that crucial whether he comes up at say 24 versus 22.

 

I'm kind of comfortable with the Cubs development system, that they are well able to individualize the development plans. And may be pretty good with working with guys on atypical tracks. Obviously Willson Contreras is an example. Hopefully Hannemann will end up being a successful example. Hopefully de la Cruz will also end up a successful example.

[CubsWin]

Ceiling is ceiling.

 

Yep....most often a vague, subjective, arbitrary, and way overshot best case perfect world scenario. I mean why/how isn't *everyone's* ceiling an elite if the whole thing is just what would happen if every single thing came together perfectly?

 

IIRC the last guy to become an elite player after playing their final DSL season at 19 is Miguel Tejada nearly 20 years ago. de la Cruz also does not need to become a TOR pitcher to be a success either, so there's also that.

Oh boy. Never mind. Be well.

[CubsWin]

Oooook then, good talk

Once again, you sought to cherry pick what someone is saying and create straw man arguments instead of understand what they've written with generous listening or even philosophical honesty. So, no it wasn't a good talk. Maybe I'll try again in a few months. Maybe not. No great loss for you either way, I'm sure.

[CubsWin]

de la Cruz is on a non-traditional development path for a Latin prospect. But I don't see it as being necessarily problematic.

Well said, craig.

[CubsWin]

Once again, you sought to cherry pick what someone is saying and create straw man arguments instead of understand what they've written with generous listening or even philosophical honesty.

 

Feel free to point out where I did any of this, particularly since we're not even a handful of posts off of you outright taking one of my comments on de la Cruz as a potential TOR and top 25 overall guy way out of context to steer the conversation off that track.

 

There's a point where you need to understand lecturing/talking down to me everytime we disagree won't work when you're clearly not really willing to listen or read what I'm saying just on the basis that you disagree.

If you really seek to have a conversation about this, feel free to private message me.