Depth for the Rotation

[David]

With the cost of acquiring good starting pitching, and quality young pitchers under team control, so expensive at the moment.....

 

Yes, and that moment will almost surely not pass.

 

When Theo came, there was a theory that hitting would become scarce and teams with hitters would have a trade leverage advantage.

 

That theory does not appear to have been fulfilled.

I'm not sure about that. The Cubs could trade Schwarber or Baez for a young pitcher, they just prefer not to (which I agree with).

Yup.

 

(Well, Baez depends on the pitcher - but yes, generally I agree with the philosophy)

[Bull]

With the cost of acquiring good starting pitching, and quality young pitchers under team control, so expensive at the moment.....

 

Yes, and that moment will almost surely not pass.

 

When Theo came, there was a theory that hitting would become scarce and teams with hitters would have a trade leverage advantage.

 

That theory does not appear to have been fulfilled.

 

 

It's not that hitting would become scarce, it's that hitters are a more predictable, less volatile asset, which is undeniably true. So while other teams have tried to ransom young pitchers with some pedigree, or build a rotation full of guys with great stuff and injury/control risks, the Cubs have won 200 games the last 2 years and a world series with a rotation that's 40% a pre-arb reject(Arrieta) and a low-ceiling prospect(Hendricks) providing about 19 fWAR over that time.

 

 

There was an observation that power numbers were dropping precipitously, and a perception that Theo was accumulating power as a market inefficiency. That trend reversed in 2015 and even more so in 2016 with the 2nd highest hr/game rate in history, second only to 2000 (1.17 vs 1.16).

[David]

 

Yes, and that moment will almost surely not pass.

 

When Theo came, there was a theory that hitting would become scarce and teams with hitters would have a trade leverage advantage.

 

That theory does not appear to have been fulfilled.

 

 

It's not that hitting would become scarce, it's that hitters are a more predictable, less volatile asset, which is undeniably true. So while other teams have tried to ransom young pitchers with some pedigree, or build a rotation full of guys with great stuff and injury/control risks, the Cubs have won 200 games the last 2 years and a world series with a rotation that's 40% a pre-arb reject(Arrieta) and a low-ceiling prospect(Hendricks) providing about 19 fWAR over that time.

 

 

There was an observation that power numbers were dropping precipitously, and a perception that Theo was accumulating power as a market inefficiency. That trend reversed in 2015 and even more so in 2016 with the 2nd highest hr/game rate in history, second only to 2000 (1.17 vs 1.16).

That's because of the Cubs dongs

[toonsterwu]

I agree with Tom on a couple points - I'm not sure Maikel Franco would absolutely dissuade them from adding a third baseman (although ... it might lead them to add one lower level wise if they preferred the ceiling), and I think Nick Pivetta for Jeimer is probably fair.

 

That said, and I'm guilty of this too, but for all the times we hear legitimate (and that is, not fan discussion) rumors on prospect for prospect trades, the majority of it never happens, at least, not with really intriguing pieces. In the Phillies case, the depth of average to solid arms, guys with the mid-rotation ceilings might convince them otherwise, but teams have a tendency to rationalize things away or prefer the guys they know (hence why I still thin the worst move this regime made (which is saying something as this was thoroughly insignificant (although as with all scouting things, luck will run out at some point, so we should be happy for now)... was dumping Flaherty and Lemahieu that winter when they needed upper level positional options, then signing Jeff Bianchi (only to cut him later, IIRC). That said, they lucked into Adrian Cardenas and Luis Valbuena being free in the spring, which effectively replaced that depth).

 

I tend to think while this is fun to contemplate (that is prying away solid young arm talent, MLB players or prospects, with our system assets), the likelihood is still higher that the competition for our 5th job comes through someone being cut/waived (Clay Buchholz, and heck, even Matt Garza comes to mind), or a team with depth trading someone (Brewers). The darkhorse may be the Rays, but even with a guy like Smyly, I'm not sure how well we match up.

[davell]

Is there any way to start a package for Graveman and Doolittle with Happ? Beane is a quantity guy sometimes, but I'm not sure I see a fit. Nor do I know where he'd value either of those guys. But I'd be hard pressed to find a team that fits us better for a lefty reliever AND a decent starter than the A's.....Just not sure they'd want what we've got to send back.....

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Doolittle missed two months with a shoulder injury. Pass.

[toonsterwu]

Is there any way to start a package for Graveman and Doolittle with Happ? Beane is a quantity guy sometimes, but I'm not sure I see a fit. Nor do I know where he'd value either of those guys. But I'd be hard pressed to find a team that fits us better for a lefty reliever AND a decent starter than the A's.....Just not sure they'd want what we've got to send back.....

 

The A's are tough to figure out. My hunch is that a Happ led package works ... but ... I don't know how much I like Graveman. Seems like we could've spent some chump change on FA (say Jhoulys Chacin market) and gotten close to Graveman production (unless he turned a really stellar, leap forward year). Just feels like an 4/5 strike throwing innings eater.

 

That said, maybe he's the type of guy that works because, well, he's cheap. If so, I would think that the A's rotation depth might lead them to desire some ceiling, and Happ would certainly be a good ceiling return for an end of the rotation-ish arm and a pen arm coming off injury. I'd venture a guess some side pieces would have to be tossed in, perhaps even on both sides, but yeah, it sounds like something the A's might consider.

[CubsWin]

Phillies have Maikel Franco at 3B and Tommy Joseph at 1B (.813 OPS, 25 years old), I don't see them acquiring a young, corner infielder. Those pitchers are pretty uninspiring to me. MLB.com has Candelario rated as a 55 prospect. Both Pivetta and Lively are 45 and I want nothing to do with Appel, at least not as a return for Candelario.

 

I can understand not being into them, but the MLB.com OFP is a weird reason.

Meh, it's a scouting report done by people with a lot more experience and access than you or me. It's a data point with more validity than what we post here...

[imb]

Duffy bothers me because of his long history with arm problems, both shoulder and elbow. It leaves me almost completely uninterested, but I guess I wouldn't close the door on a power armed lefty. What does an extension for this kind of arm - long injury history and one outstanding season - look like?

 

I continue to like the Phillies some as a match for Candelario maybe with Nick Pivetta, Mark Appel, and/or Ben Lively all interesting enough for AAA.

 

lol "hate guys like duffy who are good but have an injury history lets get mark appel who sucks and has an injury history"

[Post Count Padder]

I keep going back to the Phillies, especially now after the Buchholz trade. We have to be a match somehow. I'd think they'd be a team in need of someone like Szczur. They gave Tyler Goeddel nearly 300 plate appearances of a .549 OPS last year. It'll take more than that, but they have Adam Morgan, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Mark Appel, Zach Efflin, Jake Thompson, and Alec Asher all ticketed for AAA as of now.

[CubsWin]

Meh, it's a scouting report done by people with a lot more experience and access than you or me. It's a data point with more validity than what we post here...

 

Sure, it is also not one anyone would actually cite as a reason to avoid a trade particularly with tons of other less subjective data available. If that's THE go to data point for a guy with nearly 3000 PAs in the minors then something already smells fishy. Sure enough this corner bat's .772 OPS in the minors and bouts with outright unimpressive performance, includng a .690 OPS repeating AA last year.

No, Tom, it's not THE go to data point, just one of many.

 

The pitchers you had named were uninspiring to me for lots of reasons. The data point I referred to just summed it up succinctly. It also happened to be a perfectly valid data point that flew in the face of what you believe to be true. I would never dream of trying to convince you of anything otherwise. Your opinion is perfectly valid. I'm simply expressing what I think. I know you disagree and that's more than fine with me.

[CubsWin]

No, Tom, it's not THE go to data point, just one of many.

 

The pitchers you had named were uninspiring to me for lots of reasons. The data point I referred to just summed it up succinctly. It also happened to be a perfectly valid data point that flew in the face of what you believe to be true. I would never dream of trying to convince you of anything otherwise. Your opinion is perfectly valid. I'm simply expressing what I think. I know you disagree and that's more than fine with me.

 

These contradict each other.

No they don't. But I understand why you would think that.

 

If something summarizes succinctly, it doesn't preclude the existence of other pertinent and valid data. On the other hand, to someone who is existentially argumentative, anything I write can be disagreed with.

[CubsWin]

 

These contradict each other.

No they don't. But I understand why you would think that.

 

If something summarizes succinctly, it doesn't preclude the existence of other pertinent and valid data. On the other hand, to someone who is existentially argumentative, anything I write can be disagreed with.

 

That's not the contradiction.

I rest my case...

[Donzo]

Dang, looks like Ross to the Rangers...

 

I guess this means Wood could be back.

[Cubswin11]

I hate our SP depth

[David]

plz come back jason hammel

[Derwood]

plz come back jason hammel

 

I think that bridge has been burned, pissed on, and shot into the sun

[David]

plz come back jason hammel

 

I think that bridge has been burned, pissed on, and shot into the sun

 

by not exercising his cheap team option and granting him a chance at free agency?

[Derwood]

plz come back jason hammel

 

I think that bridge has been burned, pissed on, and shot into the sun

 

by not exercising his cheap team option and granting him a chance at free agency?

 

By telling him he's not good enough to be on the playoff roster.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

I think that bridge has been burned, pissed on, and shot into the sun

 

by not exercising his cheap team option and granting him a chance at free agency?

 

By telling him he's not good enough to be on the playoff roster.

Eh, plenty of veterans are left off playoff rosters. I have a hard time thinking that would really create a burnt bridge situation, especially when it was the right decision with very little in the way of controversy about it happening.

[Derwood]

But why would he want to sign up for that again?

[jersey cubs fan]

But why would he want to sign up for that again?

Because the Cubs would pay him a lot of money and he would play a lot of baseball on a team that will win a lot of games.

 

 

What kind of question is that? You act as though he was abused or something. If he can't get what he wants in free agency from another team, and so far he obviously hasn't, then why wouldn't he sign up for that?

[Post Count Padder]

Still a fan of sending Sczcur and a couple prospects to the Phillies for at least one of their starters. They have like 5 near MLB ready starters not in their current rotation.

 

Also not against bringing Wood back and also signing someone like Brett Anderson, CJ Wilson or Doug Fister as more depth.

 

It's not sexy but it has potential.

[David]

But why would he want to sign up for that again?

Because the Cubs would pay him a lot of money and he would play a lot of baseball on a team that will win a lot of games.

 

 

What kind of question is that? You act as though he was abused or something. If he can't get what he wants in free agency from another team, and so far he obviously hasn't, then why wouldn't he sign up for that?

seriously. wtf?

 

i'm pretty sure that if we gave him a reasonable offer, he'd come running. i think if anyone doesn't have interest, it's on the Cubs' end (but i'm not even sure that's the case anyway).

[jersey cubs fan]

I mean, he could go to Milwaukee but they will also leave him off the playoff roster.