The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[Perd]

KB and Bryce are just making up for all the time they won’t be spending together during the season.

 

Sorry, had to.

[Cubswin11]

KB and Bryce are just making up for all the time they won’t be spending together during the season.

 

Sorry, had to.

Hopefully Theo’s Spirit Airlines flight gets to Vegas in time to meet with them

[Cubswin11]

What if..... because we know Boras likes making splashes, we are going to announce a KB extension and Bryce signing together??? Like let them and Boras make a show in Vegas of a half a billion dollars+ being signed in one day. Just saying that’s “creative” in its own Theo speak way, maybe both take a smallish amount in real money this year to make it work for a big salary bump in 1-3 years from now. #DualFronts

[Sammy Sofa]

What if..... because we know Boras likes making splashes, we are going to announce a KB extension and Bryce signing together??? Like let them and Boras make a show in Vegas of a half a billion dollars+ being signed in one day. Just saying that’s “creative” in its own Theo speak way, maybe both take a smallish amount in real money this year to make it work for a big salary bump in 1-3 years from now. #DualFronts

 

[Sammy Sofa]

The only person on offense who should decline based on age would be Zobrist.

 

[imb]

Yeah.... Schwarber likely won't be as plus a defender, i dont know wtf is going on in CF but if you have confidence in Almora/Happ that's your burden. Heyward is obviously washed. Rizzo is out of the prime phase. Zobrist is 45. Javy likely won't be a 5-WAR guy ever again. Bryant is an unknown. Contreras can't catch and lost the ability to hit.

 

lester regressed, Hendricks seems like a guy who will just go to horsefeathers out of nowhere so youre kinda always waiting on other shoe to drop. quintana is trash. Darvish might have to pitch left handed. Hamels is probably a 4.50 era guy this year.

 

Yeah should be great

[Sammy Sofa]

Seriously; Tim's take is the kind that people here would be losing their minds over if it came from a Cardinals or Brewers message board. That's some primo KeithStone-ing.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Yeah.... Schwarber likely won't be as plus a defender, i dont know wtf is going on in CF but if you have confidence in Almora/Happ that's your burden. Heyward is obviously washed. Rizzo is out of the prime phase. Zobrist is 45. Javy likely won't be a 5-WAR guy ever again. Bryant is an unknown. Contreras can't catch and lost the ability to hit.

 

lester regressed, Hendricks seems like a guy who will just go to horsefeathers out of nowhere so youre kinda always waiting on other shoe to drop. quintana is trash. Darvish might have to pitch left handed. Hamels is probably a 4.50 era guy this year.

 

Yeah should be great

I think it is more likely than not that Baez has another 5 WAR season, but I do think the over under on any particular season should probably be just over 3.

[David]

Seriously; Tim's take is the kind that people here would be losing their minds over if it came from a Cardinals or Brewers message board. That's some primo KeithStone-ing.

 

yeah, even position player wise, both rizzo and heyward (lol) are at that stage. primes don't start at 26-27 anymore.

Edited December 7, 2018 by David

[Bull]

Seriously; Tim's take is the kind that people here would be losing their minds over if it came from a Cardinals or Brewers message board. That's some primo KeithStone-ing.

 

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense.

 

I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded.

[Sammy Sofa]

Seriously; Tim's take is the kind that people here would be losing their minds over if it came from a Cardinals or Brewers message board. That's some primo KeithStone-ing.

 

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense.

 

I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded.

 

Nope. Especially as it's become more and more clear how early players' peaks are, especially when it comes to offensive output.

[Brian]

Are we now convinced that every single offensive player will be considerably worse because they will be one year older? Something the Brewers and Cardinals are definitely going to experience also.

[Bull]

Seriously; Tim's take is the kind that people here would be losing their minds over if it came from a Cardinals or Brewers message board. That's some primo KeithStone-ing.

 

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense.

 

I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded.

 

Nope. Especially as it's become more and more clear how early players' peaks are, especially when it comes to offensive output.

 

I've seen some of the articles on peaks coming earlier, but I feel like they're missing something. I think the biggest reason for this is that "decent major leaguers" don't last as long as they used to. Once the "marginal" major leaguer hit arbitration, he's DFA'd. Ten years ago he still received a contract. Once the "decent" major leaguer hits free agency, he's now offerred a minor league deal, when you used to get a multi-year ML contract, because now the GM's realize they can get nearly the same production out of a rookie. And that rookie is getting a shot earlier, making his peak even earlier (simply becasue there is data for earlier). This is all based on my assumption that lack of data for a 34 year old (fewer 34 year olds getting ML free agent contracts) counts as a negative in these models. If removing these marginal players doesn't "count against" their age range, and just eliminates poorer performances, then I'm more wrong than you think I am.

 

I would love to see reaserach on the aging curve of 10-year vets. I would imagine they are not much different that they were 10 years ago.

[Neuby]

Seriously; Tim's take is the kind that people here would be losing their minds over if it came from a Cardinals or Brewers message board. That's some primo KeithStone-ing.

 

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense.

 

I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded.

 

Nope. Especially as it's become more and more clear how early players' peaks are, especially when it comes to offensive output.

 

 

Nope it's actually becoming less clear and more variable in todays game thanks to players adjusting swings for launch angle, player conditioning and advance scouting .

[CubinNY]

Yeah.... Schwarber likely won't be as plus a defender, i dont know wtf is going on in CF but if you have confidence in Almora/Happ that's your burden. Heyward is obviously washed. Rizzo is out of the prime phase. Zobrist is 45. Javy likely won't be a 5-WAR guy ever again. Bryant is an unknown. Contreras can't catch and lost the ability to hit.

 

lester regressed, Hendricks seems like a guy who will just go to horsefeathers out of nowhere so youre kinda always waiting on other shoe to drop. quintana is trash. Darvish might have to pitch left handed. Hamels is probably a 4.50 era guy this year.

 

Yeah should be great

The above sort of begs the question, why would Bryce want to sign with these stiffs?

[Tim]

Seriously; Tim's take is the kind that people here would be losing their minds over if it came from a Cardinals or Brewers message board. That's some primo KeithStone-ing.

 

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense.

 

I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded.

Yep.

 

Even with the entire team (except Baez) playing *way* below expectations in the second half, we ended up fifth in hitting WAR. Rizzo and Heyward are at the age where you don't expect them to get better, but their expectations shouldn't be much lower heading into this year than last. A healthy Bryant alone does an awful lot to fix the offense. All the other guys are still young enough to be improving. Every single team can have the IMB doom and gloom scenarios written for them. It's easy to do for this team because of how it ended.

 

However, add a couple more quality relievers into the pen and this team should once again be predicted to win 91-93 games.

 

I'm certainly not satisfied with that. I want the Cubs to raise a big middle finger to baseball and sign Bryce, Lowrie and Pollock, drop Russell, and trade Almora and Happ for the best relievers you can get for them. But the doom and gloom about this team is getting ridiculous.

[Sammy Sofa]

The amount of spin from people inexplicably trying to defend the nonsense idea that Zobrist is the only real candidate for any kind of decline (please spare me the wobbly, nebulous, "b-b-b-but I was only talking about the special decline that old guys have, honest!") is giving my hair the kind of flowing, sexy bounce that I wish Bryce still had.

[Brian]

The amount of spin from people inexplicably trying to defend the nonsense idea that Zobrist is the only real candidate for any kind of decline (please spare me the wobbly, nebulous, "b-b-b-but I was only talking about the special decline that old guys have, honest!") is giving my hair the kind of flowing, sexy bounce that I wish Bryce still had.

 

Are the other teams not aging as well.

[Brian]

I mean, I can see if he said they would get noticeably better but all he said was a group of mid to late ''20s players should remain generally at their same skillset.

[jersey cubs fan]

The amount of spin from people inexplicably trying to defend the nonsense idea that Zobrist is the only real candidate for any kind of decline (please spare me the wobbly, nebulous, "b-b-b-but I was only talking about the special decline that old guys have, honest!") is giving my hair the kind of flowing, sexy bounce that I wish Bryce still had.

 

Are the other teams not aging as well.

Other teams are bringing in better players to make themselves better and offset internal declines.

[David]

The amount of spin from people inexplicably trying to defend the nonsense idea that Zobrist is the only real candidate for any kind of decline (please spare me the wobbly, nebulous, "b-b-b-but I was only talking about the special decline that old guys have, honest!") is giving my hair the kind of flowing, sexy bounce that I wish Bryce still had.

 

Are the other teams not aging as well.

 

what a weird post

[Bull]

The amount of spin from people inexplicably trying to defend the nonsense idea that Zobrist is the only real candidate for any kind of decline (please spare me the wobbly, nebulous, "b-b-b-but I was only talking about the special decline that old guys have, honest!") is giving my hair the kind of flowing, sexy bounce that I wish Bryce still had.

 

Are the other teams not aging as well.

Other teams are bringing in better players to make themselves better and offset internal declines.

 

Nah. The players they bring in will just decline.

[Bull]

 

Tim did say he was talking about decline based on age. I read it that Zobrist is the only guy who is so old you have to expect decline. He also specified offense.

 

I can't speak for Tim, but I'm sure he'd agree that Baez is also likely to regress, but thats a matter of regression to the mean, not way-past-peak age. I have to say I agree with what he wrote, and think you would too if he expounded.

 

Nope. Especially as it's become more and more clear how early players' peaks are, especially when it comes to offensive output.

 

I've seen some of the articles on peaks coming earlier, but I feel like they're missing something. I think the biggest reason for this is that "decent major leaguers" don't last as long as they used to. Once the "marginal" major leaguer hit arbitration, he's DFA'd. Ten years ago he still received a contract. Once the "decent" major leaguer hits free agency, he's now offerred a minor league deal, when you used to get a multi-year ML contract, because now the GM's realize they can get nearly the same production out of a rookie. And that rookie is getting a shot earlier, making his peak even earlier (simply becasue there is data for earlier). This is all based on my assumption that lack of data for a 34 year old (fewer 34 year olds getting ML free agent contracts) counts as a negative in these models. If removing these marginal players doesn't "count against" their age range, and just eliminates poorer performances, then I'm more wrong than you think I am.

 

I would love to see reaserach on the aging curve of 10-year vets. I would imagine they are not much different that they were 10 years ago.

Bumping because new page.

Sofa, I’d genuinely like to hear your take on this, especially if I’m way off base.

[Sammy Sofa]

The amount of spin from people inexplicably trying to defend the nonsense idea that Zobrist is the only real candidate for any kind of decline (please spare me the wobbly, nebulous, "b-b-b-but I was only talking about the special decline that old guys have, honest!") is giving my hair the kind of flowing, sexy bounce that I wish Bryce still had.

 

Are the other teams not aging as well.

 

what a weird post

 

Yeah, I have no idea how he's getting that anyone is saying the other teams aren't likely facing decline, too. It's not like the Cubs are just going to all fall off of a cliff at once; I just think it's goofy to talk like practically everyone is going to bounce right back or deliver to expectations except for one guy, despite all of them getting older, and some of them on the back end or moving out of what are generally now considered their prime seasons.

 

Obviously that doesn't mean that players can't or won't have surge years after their peaks, but acting, like, "nah, we're mostly cool outside of Old Man Zobrist, the guy tied for 2nd in bWAR on the team in 2018," seems a tad myopic.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Sammy Sofa

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Nope. Especially as it's become more and more clear how early players' peaks are, especially when it comes to offensive output.

 

I've seen some of the articles on peaks coming earlier, but I feel like they're missing something. I think the biggest reason for this is that "decent major leaguers" don't last as long as they used to. Once the "marginal" major leaguer hit arbitration, he's DFA'd. Ten years ago he still received a contract. Once the "decent" major leaguer hits free agency, he's now offerred a minor league deal, when you used to get a multi-year ML contract, because now the GM's realize they can get nearly the same production out of a rookie. And that rookie is getting a shot earlier, making his peak even earlier (simply becasue there is data for earlier). This is all based on my assumption that lack of data for a 34 year old (fewer 34 year olds getting ML free agent contracts) counts as a negative in these models. If removing these marginal players doesn't "count against" their age range, and just eliminates poorer performances, then I'm more wrong than you think I am.

 

I would love to see reaserach on the aging curve of 10-year vets. I would imagine they are not much different that they were 10 years ago.

Bumping because new page.

Sofa, I’d genuinely like to hear your take on this, especially if I’m way off base.

 

I'm just an idiot parroting what I've heard/read. I have no clue if the people claiming the changes in peak seasons are accounting for all of this.