Cubs offseason thread

[muntjack]

Baez is a good bet to be worth as many wins as Archer.

[davell]

If we do bring back Dex, I'd want to try and trade Almora AND Soler. You still likely have Zobrist getting lots of OF starts, to go with a Schwarber/Dex/Heyward grouping. You'd still have Szczur and you could sign Bianco or someone as additional depth.

 

Obviously, you don't trade them just to do it. But I think there's all sorts of different pitching options that you could net by doing it. Same deal or separate.

[Tim]

If we do bring back Dex, I'd want to try and trade Almora AND Soler. You still likely have Zobrist getting lots of OF starts, to go with a Schwarber/Dex/Heyward grouping. You'd still have Szczur and you could sign Bianco or someone as additional depth.

 

Obviously, you don't trade them just to do it. But I think there's all sorts of different pitching options that you could net by doing it. Same deal or separate.

Add in signing Jansen and Cecil and that's my offseason plan.

[WrigleyField 22]

If we do bring back Dex, I'd want to try and trade Almora AND Soler. You still likely have Zobrist getting lots of OF starts, to go with a Schwarber/Dex/Heyward grouping. You'd still have Szczur and you could sign Bianco or someone as additional depth.

 

Obviously, you don't trade them just to do it. But I think there's all sorts of different pitching options that you could net by doing it. Same deal or separate.

I may he crazy, but I'd want to keep Almora, but I guess for the right deal you bite the bullet. Baez I keep even if he doesnt have a starting spot penciled in.

[BigbadB]

If we do bring back Dex, I'd want to try and trade Almora AND Soler. You still likely have Zobrist getting lots of OF starts, to go with a Schwarber/Dex/Heyward grouping. You'd still have Szczur and you could sign Bianco or someone as additional depth.

 

Obviously, you don't trade them just to do it. But I think there's all sorts of different pitching options that you could net by doing it. Same deal or separate.

I may he crazy, but I'd want to keep Almora, but I guess for the right deal you bite the bullet. Baez I keep even if he doesnt have a starting spot penciled in.

 

If Dexter comes back, we have to assume it's a 4 year deal, 3 at the very least. I don't see a need to keep Almora in that case. I think Soler and Almora become trade bait if Dex comes back.

[Post Count Padder]

If we do bring back Dex, I'd want to try and trade Almora AND Soler. You still likely have Zobrist getting lots of OF starts, to go with a Schwarber/Dex/Heyward grouping. You'd still have Szczur and you could sign Bianco or someone as additional depth.

 

Obviously, you don't trade them just to do it. But I think there's all sorts of different pitching options that you could net by doing it. Same deal or separate.

I may he crazy, but I'd want to keep Almora, but I guess for the right deal you bite the bullet. Baez I keep even if he doesnt have a starting spot penciled in.

 

If Dexter comes back, we have to assume it's a 4 year deal, 3 at the very least. I don't see a need to keep Almora in that case. I think Soler and Almora become trade bait if Dex comes back.

I like the idea of keeping Almora to split time between all three outfield positions. Still get him 200+ at bats and keep the elite defense, especially with Schwarber's limitations. Szczur doesn't have any options left and could probably fetch a prospect from a team in need of outfield depth. Soler seems to be the most likely one traded.

 

So you have Heyward, Schwarber, Fowler, with Almora and a number of depth AAA guys, in addition to Baez and Zobrist being able to play out there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd agree that packaging Soler and Almora for pitching if you bring back Fowler is the best case scenario. Kinda tough to do in a 1 for 1 deal since they're both OF so maybe you need to get creative, but if you've got Fowler back then I think you have a good chance to sell high on Almora since I'd bet the front office is pessimistic on him being more than a role player/averagish starter. That means you also need to bring in another version of Coghlan(maybe even Coghlan himself), but that's a role I'd have a lot of confidence in the FO's ability to fill, especially since there's some decent options around.

[Tracer Bullet]

I'd agree that packaging Soler and Almora for pitching if you bring back Fowler is the best case scenario. Kinda tough to do in a 1 for 1 deal since they're both OF so maybe you need to get creative, but if you've got Fowler back then I think you have a good chance to sell high on Almora since I'd bet the front office is pessimistic on him being more than a role player/averagish starter. That means you also need to bring in another version of Coghlan(maybe even Coghlan himself), but that's a role I'd have a lot of confidence in the FO's ability to fill, especially since there's some decent options around.

 

What's the market for a guy like Soler at this point? He'll be 25 on opening day. The stats are improving, his walk rate is up, his swing percentages are better, and he's hitting more fly balls (and more HRs). But his health is a concern, his defense is a concern, and he still strikes out 1/4 of his PAs (better than 30% last year, but still).

 

For $3M in 2017 and $4M/year after that, any chance he's actually more valuable to the Cubs than whatever pitching they can get for him?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd agree that packaging Soler and Almora for pitching if you bring back Fowler is the best case scenario. Kinda tough to do in a 1 for 1 deal since they're both OF so maybe you need to get creative, but if you've got Fowler back then I think you have a good chance to sell high on Almora since I'd bet the front office is pessimistic on him being more than a role player/averagish starter. That means you also need to bring in another version of Coghlan(maybe even Coghlan himself), but that's a role I'd have a lot of confidence in the FO's ability to fill, especially since there's some decent options around.

 

What's the market for a guy like Soler at this point? He'll be 25 on opening day. The stats are improving, his walk rate is up, his swing percentages are better, and he's hitting more fly balls (and more HRs). But his health is a concern, his defense is a concern, and he still strikes out 1/4 of his PAs (better than 30% last year, but still).

 

For $3M in 2017 and $4M/year after that, any chance he's actually more valuable to the Cubs than whatever pitching they can get for him?

 

Soler has incredible power and for the last year plus has been an averageish player on the whole, so anyone who likes his profile enough to trade for him is going to dream that power gets more realized with consistent PT plus entering his prime years. 4 years of a player you think is average with potential to be Edwin Encarnacion is worth a fair bit, even at arbitration salaries. That doesn't mean he's worth that to everyone though, other teams see that he isn't playing every day and is shielded a bit, and the leg injuries are certainly cause for concern.

 

As it relates to the Cubs, in a world where Fowler is signed, Soler is basically a platoon player/injury replacement, and one that needs to be more appealing than both Baez and Almora to get playing time. There's opportunity for him but it's not a substantial one, so as long as they can find a way to find one team optimistic on his future, as long as that team can be used to further their other goals I'd put good odds on him being traded. Again though, this assumes Fowler back in the fold, without him there's more opportunity and more uncertainty on the whole.

[Elrhino]

There are reportedly fiftyleven teams bidding for 39 year old Carlos Beltran this offseason. I think Soler at $3 million could be a nice trade piece, particularly for an AL Team that can DH him.

[Tim]

The stupid election cut my post-world series high short. Now I want some good news from the Cubs adding to the roster to distract me from that.

[imb]

there's very little reason for us not to trade for chris archer

[Ding Dong Johnson]

there's very little reason for us not to trade for chris archer

except his arm is going to fall off

[imb]

ehh, he'll be 28, three-straight years of 30+ starts, and the only stats that were appreciably worse last year were a slight uptick in H/9 and some bad home run luck. I think we can get two good years out of him at minimum, and that's when our window is strongest.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

there's very little reason for us not to trade for chris archer

 

Chris Archer is likely to cost more than Chris Sale

 

 

For my money, I'm still really hoping that Teheran or Odorizzi are possibilities. Could/should be available and without really emptying the farm, 4 years of team control through their prime, past the injury nexus and have shown an ability to take a major league workload, and repertoires where you can dream on some improvement with Bosio's impact.

[imb]

there's very little reason for us not to trade for chris archer

 

Chris Archer is likely to cost more than Chris Sale

 

 

For my money, I'm still really hoping that Teheran or Odorizzi are possibilities. Could/should be available and without really emptying the farm, 4 years of team control through their prime, past the injury nexus and have shown an ability to take a major league workload, and repertoires where you can dream on some improvement with Bosio's impact.

 

christ, i forgot he's under control for another 5 years.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

The stupid election cut my post-world series high short. Now I want some good news from the Cubs adding to the roster to distract me from that.

 

Just watch the highlights again. It will put you right back in a good mood.

[davell]

there's very little reason for us not to trade for chris archer

 

Chris Archer is likely to cost more than Chris Sale

 

 

For my money, I'm still really hoping that Teheran or Odorizzi are possibilities. Could/should be available and without really emptying the farm, 4 years of team control through their prime, past the injury nexus and have shown an ability to take a major league workload, and repertoires where you can dream on some improvement with Bosio's impact.

 

Why do you think Teheran is available? They set the ask to "overwhelm the horsefeathers out of me and then maybe...."at the deadline. They're opening up their new stadium, they've added pitching already, and are being aggressive on Sale, Archer, and Gray.....They're trying to compete this season(even if its way too early for them), but at any rate, Teheran is going nowhere.

[Agony and Ivy]

I'm also curious on whether the Yankees would be interested in a Candelario/Kaprielian swap.

 

Kaprelian has TOR potential so I don't think Candelario is fetching him back in trade.

[davell]

Rank these guys in order of current trade value.....Soler, Candelario, Almora, Happ, Cease......

 

I think its an extremely tough group and figure that first and fifth is extremely close, with my guess being all 5 would be ranked first by at least one club and all 5 would be ranked last as well.....

 

At any rate, as much as I'd love for us to add the TOR type this offseason......I think that winning the WS takes some pressure off and makes the FO extremely calculated. Just don't see them dealing off too much currency for one guy right now.

 

I'm expecting the Wisler type add, not the Archer type. Gray being the closest thing to an upper end guy, if Beane accepts a bit less than normal.....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why do you think Teheran is available? They set the ask to "overwhelm the horsefeathers out of me and then maybe...."at the deadline. They're opening up their new stadium, they've added pitching already, and are being aggressive on Sale, Archer, and Gray.....They're trying to compete this season(even if its way too early for them), but at any rate, Teheran is going nowhere.

 

Quite possible he's not available or would be super expensive, but I also don't think he's been rumored for more than a year because the current FO loves him. They don't need to deal him, especially if they have their hearts set on competing next year(silly), but they also have plenty of arms in that system to not need to cling to Teheran for dear life either.

 

Rank these guys in order of current trade value.....Soler, Candelario, Almora, Happ, Cease......

 

Soler, Almora, Happ, Candelario, Cease

[Tryptamine]

there's very little reason for us not to trade for chris archer

except his arm is going to fall off

 

That and his asking price is supposedly even higher than Sale's.

[cubsclapp]

Rank these guys in order of current trade value.....Soler, Candelario, Almora, Happ, Cease......

 

I think its an extremely tough group and figure that first and fifth is extremely close, with my guess being all 5 would be ranked first by at least one club and all 5 would be ranked last as well......

 

I'd rank Almora first and I'd assume the organization does as well (at least unless they have bigger plans in CF like Fowler or Pollock or something).

 

His glove already carries huge value where he can be a 2-WAR player just by being like a .690 OPS guy. And we know there is more power potential in the bat and a very good hit tool, even if he's allergic to walking.

 

We all love Jorge and it's impossible to not drool over the potential. If he became an elite hitter overnight it would stun no one, as we see the flashes frequently, and he's already a good hitter as is. But, he's a below average (to put it nicely) defensive corner outfielder that is unlikely to get too much better out there, especially with his leg injury past. And many organizations are likely worried he's truly injury prone (I don't like to label guys that so early myself, but he sure does seem to have the most muscular fragile body ever).

 

So, Jorge is going to have to hit a lot to be a 2-WAR player. Mark Trumbo for example as a DH/bad corner OF hit 47 dongs, had an .850 OPS, and had a 2.2 fWAR. Mike Napoli as a DH/bad 1B had 34 homers, an .800 OPS, and a 1.0 fWAR. Now, Soler is a step up from these guys defensively, but just shows how much he's going to likely have to hit to have much value.

 

Either way, likely going to have to package these guys together to really get something. And it may take all five guys listed to get Archer.

[KingCubsFan]

Rank these guys in order of current trade value.....Soler, Candelario, Almora, Happ, Cease......

 

I think its an extremely tough group and figure that first and fifth is extremely close, with my guess being all 5 would be ranked first by at least one club and all 5 would be ranked last as well......

 

I'd rank Almora first and I'd assume the organization does as well (at least unless they have bigger plans in CF like Fowler or Pollock or something).

 

His glove already carries huge value where he can be a 2-WAR player just by being like a .690 OPS guy. And we know there is more power potential in the bat and a very good hit tool, even if he's allergic to walking.

 

We all love Jorge and it's impossible to not drool over the potential. If he became an elite hitter overnight it would stun no one, as we see the flashes frequently, and he's already a good hitter as is. But, he's a below average (to put it nicely) defensive corner outfielder that is unlikely to get too much better out there, especially with his leg injury past. And many organizations are likely worried he's truly injury prone (I don't like to label guys that so early myself, but he sure does seem to have the most muscular fragile body ever).

 

So, Jorge is going to have to hit a lot to be a 2-WAR player. Mark Trumbo for example as a DH/bad corner OF hit 47 dongs, had an .850 OPS, and had a 2.2 fWAR. Mike Napoli as a DH/bad 1B had 34 homers, an .800 OPS, and a 1.0 fWAR. Now, Soler is a step up from these guys defensively, but just shows how much he's going to likely have to hit to have much value.

 

Either way, likely going to have to package these guys together to really get something. And it may take all five guys listed to get Archer.

If that's all it takes to get Archer, sign me up.

[Tim]

So, Jorge is going to have to hit a lot to be a 2-WAR player. Mark Trumbo for example as a DH/bad corner OF hit 47 dongs, had an .850 OPS, and had a 2.2 fWAR. Mike Napoli as a DH/bad 1B had 34 homers, an .800 OPS, and a 1.0 fWAR. Now, Soler is a step up from these guys defensively, but just shows how much he's going to likely have to hit to have much value.

hmm...Those represent a couple of pretty extreme guys for comparison. I get the point that you're making. But Trumbo almost literally does nothing well but hit HR. Napoli will at least walk, but provides *very* negative value in the field and on the bases.