Cubs offseason thread

[davell]

horsefeathers. We're not trading Javy. If we DID? It'd definitely be for something that's already established. Not some poist hype guy or even true prospects. This is real baseball, not a horsefeathering video game.

 

But why won't we trade him? Hmm.

 

1) His potential is still immense. And the year to year improvements are certainly there.

2) He's phenomenal depth if Addy ever misses time. He plays SS, Zobrist moves back to 2B and the loss of an elite player doesn't cause us to skip a step.

3) Defense. Our pitching is built around run prevention, as much as anything. We have bats that'll win us a ton of games, even without elite D or pitching. But the addition of the D helps turn the pitching. Lose our best defender and our pitching gets worse.

4) We have other, far less important players, like Soler, Almora, any prospect, to move for pitching. AND keep the D in tact.

[UMFan83]

Yankees already in contact with Chapman

 

http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-yankees-call-chapman-favorites/

 

he New York Yankees are in touch already with their top closing target Aroldis Chapman, who they seem to prefer slightly over Kenley Jansen due to the lack of a draft choice being attached plus their familiarity with Chapman.

 

Meanwhile, the Yankees hope Chapman’s familiarity with them could give them a slight edge in free agency when several big-market teams seek a closer (Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, etc.). Chapman is thought to appreciate the Yankees “rescuing” him when he had the domestic abuse cloud hanging over him.

 

In the end, of course, these things come down to money. And the Yankees probably aren’t at a disadvantage there, either. Chapman and Jansen, at least, are expected to easily break Jonathan Papelbon’s record relief deal for a closer of $50 million.

[davell]

I hate that Chapman makes more sense from a baseball perspective than Jansen does, due to the pick. Oh well, its still an easy choice for me. Plus, it wouldn't surprise me if Jansen's cutter outlasts Chapman's velo anyway.

[UMFan83]

I hate that Chapman makes more sense from a baseball perspective than Jansen does, due to the pick. Oh well, its still an easy choice for me. Plus, it wouldn't surprise me if Jansen's cutter outlasts Chapman's velo anyway.

 

The best point I've seen made is that Jansen didn't start pitching until like 22 years old. At 17 Chapman was pitching in major Cuban tournaments. Lot more wear on the arm of Chapman, who absolutely has to have that 100+ MPH heater to be an elite reliever.

[Agony and Ivy]

I hate that Chapman makes more sense from a baseball perspective than Jansen does, due to the pick. Oh well, its still an easy choice for me. Plus, it wouldn't surprise me if Jansen's cutter outlasts Chapman's velo anyway.

 

Once Fowler signs with another team, the Cubs will get the pick right back, so it's not that big of a deal. I do wish they'd find a way to keep Dex.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I hate that Chapman makes more sense from a baseball perspective than Jansen does, due to the pick. Oh well, its still an easy choice for me. Plus, it wouldn't surprise me if Jansen's cutter outlasts Chapman's velo anyway.

 

The best point I've seen made is that Jansen didn't start pitching until like 22 years old. At 17 Chapman was pitching in major Cuban tournaments. Lot more wear on the arm of Chapman, who absolutely has to have that 100+ MPH heater to be an elite reliever.

 

The thing about Chapman's velocity is that it's so ridiculous that he can lose a tick and still be really good. Chapman led pitchers in fastball velocity by 2.4 mph, that's the same as the gap between 2nd and 29th. I know some people will think of Game 7 and get apprehensive, but I don't think that's a fair representation of Chapman because he was missing command as much as velocity. He also has only thrown 840 innings as a pro since he was 17 in Cuba, so while his arm isn't Jansen fresh(500 IP!), I don't think there's much risk of past workload weighing him down.

[jersey cubs fan]

I hate that Chapman makes more sense from a baseball perspective than Jansen does, due to the pick. Oh well, its still an easy choice for me. Plus, it wouldn't surprise me if Jansen's cutter outlasts Chapman's velo anyway.

 

The best point I've seen made is that Jansen didn't start pitching until like 22 years old. At 17 Chapman was pitching in major Cuban tournaments. Lot more wear on the arm of Chapman, who absolutely has to have that 100+ MPH heater to be an elite reliever.

 

The thing about Chapman's velocity is that it's so ridiculous that he can lose a tick and still be really good. Chapman led pitchers in fastball velocity by 2.4 mph, that's the same as the gap between 2nd and 29th. I know some people will think of Game 7 and get apprehensive, but I don't think that's a fair representation of Chapman because he was missing command as much as velocity. He also has only thrown 840 innings as a pro since he was 17 in Cuba, so while his arm isn't Jansen fresh(500 IP!), I don't think there's much risk of past workload weighing him down.

 

Are there still people pushing for Chapman to be a starter?

[Cubswin11]

I hate that Chapman makes more sense from a baseball perspective than Jansen does, due to the pick. Oh well, its still an easy choice for me. Plus, it wouldn't surprise me if Jansen's cutter outlasts Chapman's velo anyway.

 

The best point I've seen made is that Jansen didn't start pitching until like 22 years old. At 17 Chapman was pitching in major Cuban tournaments. Lot more wear on the arm of Chapman, who absolutely has to have that 100+ MPH heater to be an elite reliever.

 

The thing about Chapman's velocity is that it's so ridiculous that he can lose a tick and still be really good. Chapman led pitchers in fastball velocity by 2.4 mph, that's the same as the gap between 2nd and 29th. I know some people will think of Game 7 and get apprehensive, but I don't think that's a fair representation of Chapman because he was missing command as much as velocity. He also has only thrown 840 innings as a pro since he was 17 in Cuba, so while his arm isn't Jansen fresh(500 IP!), I don't think there's much risk of past workload weighing him down.

On top of him still likely being really good if he loses 1-3 MPH on his FB his slider/cutter (whatever you want to call his breaking pitch) has shown flashes of being pretty damn good. Once he starts losing velo I'd imagine he'd incorporate and work on that pitch a little more.

[Cubswin11]

Daniel Hudson is another relief pitcher option that intrigues me quite a bit. I wouldn't mind a perceived overpay for him. He fits the bill of a somewhat former top starting pitching prospect, who just recently made the switch to relief pitching. His velo made a major uptick moving to relief, averaged 95 on his FB this year and topped out at nearly 98.

[davell]

Yeah, Hudson is intriguing too. Plenty of non closer(for us anyway) type of arms out there.....The question is how many guaranteed contracts do we add to the pen? Currently, the pen looks like this....

 

CL Edwards?

SU Strop

MR Rondon(if he gets healthy this changes obviously)

MR Grimm

MR Pena

Swing- Zastryzny

 

LOOGY options- Rosscup, Leathersich

 

MR Candidates- Patton, Johnson, Rosario, Rivero

 

This doesn't even look awful, as it is. If you add in Montgomery, it looks decent. My guess is Monty gets about 15 starts and is out of the pen for half the year.

 

I think we'll definitely add a lefty of some sort. If Monty is pen bound, I guess I'd see us add a lesser type. If he's starting, then I could see an upper echelon type.

 

We'll be getting a closer. That's almost a definite, I guess? Unless they DO want to give Edwards a chance and address it at midsesson, if it becomes a need?

 

I think they'll add a righty middle reliever too. But definitely a lesser guy, IF they add a closer. If they don't add a closer, I could see Ziegler or basically anyone.....

 

So, I say we're adding 3 guaranteed contracts. Closer, right handed MR, and a LOOGY.....

[Bull]

How the hell did we get Montgomery for Vogelbach?

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

 

Same way we got Warren for Castro. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Superfluous asset (v-bach is a fatter Schwarber, Castro an uglier Baez) for pitching potential.

[Cubswin11]

 

The thing about Chapman's velocity is that it's so ridiculous that he can lose a tick and still be really good. Chapman led pitchers in fastball velocity by 2.4 mph, that's the same as the gap between 2nd and 29th. I know some people will think of Game 7 and get apprehensive, but I don't think that's a fair representation of Chapman because he was missing command as much as velocity. He also has only thrown 840 innings as a pro since he was 17 in Cuba, so while his arm isn't Jansen fresh(500 IP!), I don't think there's much risk of past workload weighing him down.

On top of him still likely being really good if he loses 1-3 MPH on his FB his slider/cutter (whatever you want to call his breaking pitch) has shown flashes of being pretty damn good. Once he starts losing velo I'd imagine he'd incorporate and work on that pitch a little more.

 

Don't forget the changeup:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/76660438/chapmans-excellent-changeup-becoming-weapon/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jabo-aroldis-chapman-changeup-watch/

 

http://cdn.riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Aroldis-Chapman-changeup-slowmo.gif?ccc875

That's filthy. I can't say I recall him throwing that pitch at all in his time here. But yeah it's pretty clear he has more than just a really fast, fastball in his repertoire to be a successful pitcher once the velo starts dropping.

[Bull]

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

 

Same way we got Warren for Castro. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Superfluous asset (v-bach is a fatter Schwarber, Castro an uglier Baez) for pitching potential.

 

In his dreams.

Cool. My point was that he was expendable. I think you made it for me.

[Cubswin11]

 

Very slick under the radar move. It will ease the blow a bit when Gleyber becomes a star.

 

Same way we got Warren for Castro. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Superfluous asset (v-bach is a fatter Schwarber, Castro an uglier Baez) for pitching potential.

 

In his dreams

 

-----

 

No way in heck the Cubs walk into the season with that bullpen and Edwards as closer. I <3 Edwards and just no way - maaaaaybe just before his FA season. They're almost definitely not going to pass on this crop of high end relief FAs just to pay for one at the deadline again.

To add a bit to this... Maybe their sentiment will change, but they have said and shown the tendency to not go with Edwards back to back days, 3 or 4 games in 5 or 6 days, etc. So as a "traditional" closer on a team that's going to win 90+ games next year they'd have to be comfortable going to someone else as a "closer" along with him/use multiple guys if they stuck with those rules. Unless it's another RD/screw the closer year I guess. He's best used as a fire-man/high leverage relief pitcher and not strict closer, imo

Edited November 8, 2016 by Cubswin11

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I really like the idea of adding Jansen, and I do not like Chapman as a human being.

 

but I really want Chapman to stay

[Gmoney08]

Also this org has produced a number of quality or better (or way better) SPs in the past twenty years like Radke, some guy named Johan Santana, Loshe, Liriano, a plethora of long tenured relievers, and lesser starters like pre-injury Scott Baker.

 

Lol the youngest of those guys was Liriano signed 16 YEARS AGO!!

[jersey cubs fan]

I really like the idea of adding Jansen, and I do not like Chapman as a human being.

 

but I really want Chapman to stay

I could take or leave Chapman at this point.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

and now that Rondon lost his arm, I really want Jansen and Chapman

 

http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/A-girl-can-dream.jpg

[Cubswin11]

I hope we end up with one of Chapman or Jansen. But my preference is Chapman. I like that he's left handed and has an overall better repertoire that he could be able to tap into if/when needed down the road. Plus we keep a draft pick. I'd be more than happy if it's Jansen over him but prefer Chapman.

[davell]

and now that Rondon lost his arm, I really want Jansen and Chapman

 

http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/A-girl-can-dream.jpg

 

We can't get both. Yeah, it'd be awesome. But there are more teams in the market, than there are closers. And I can't really see either of those two deciding they'll take a set up role, when other really good teams need them at closer.

[Banedon]

I would much rather have Jensen and it's not particularly close. Now that we got our WS there's no reason to tolerate a horsefeathers bag like Chapman.

[KingCubsFan]

I would much rather have Jensen and it's not particularly close. Now that we got our WS there's no reason to tolerate a horsefeathers bag like Chapman.

Agreed. And baseball-wise, Jensen seemed much more comfortable going multiple innings during the playoffs compared to Chapman.

[Gmoney08]

Also this org has produced a number of quality or better (or way better) SPs in the past twenty years like Radke, some guy named Johan Santana, Loshe, Liriano, a plethora of long tenured relievers, and lesser starters like pre-injury Scott Baker.

 

Lol the youngest of those guys was Liriano signed 16 YEARS AGO!!

 

What's the acceptable window? How often do teams produce TOR starters and how does this affect a guy like Berrios with his merits?

 

I doubt it has much to do with Berrios at all. Pretty sure their front office has flipped three times since Liriano. Liriano was a top prospect for the Giants anyways.

 

Berrios might be a good pitcher but it wont have much to do with Santana, Radke and Liriano IMO.

[Gmoney08]

I would much rather have Jensen and it's not particularly close. Now that we got our WS there's no reason to tolerate a horsefeathers bag like Chapman.

Agreed. And baseball-wise, Jensen seemed much more comfortable going multiple innings during the playoffs compared to Chapman.

 

After reading up on the case I personally dont think Chapman ever hit her.

 

Ive heard he was actually great in the Cubs clubhouse too.

 

I can see why people dont want him back, but i'd like him back.

[BigSlick]

 

The thing about Chapman's velocity is that it's so ridiculous that he can lose a tick and still be really good. Chapman led pitchers in fastball velocity by 2.4 mph, that's the same as the gap between 2nd and 29th. I know some people will think of Game 7 and get apprehensive, but I don't think that's a fair representation of Chapman because he was missing command as much as velocity. He also has only thrown 840 innings as a pro since he was 17 in Cuba, so while his arm isn't Jansen fresh(500 IP!), I don't think there's much risk of past workload weighing him down.

On top of him still likely being really good if he loses 1-3 MPH on his FB his slider/cutter (whatever you want to call his breaking pitch) has shown flashes of being pretty damn good. Once he starts losing velo I'd imagine he'd incorporate and work on that pitch a little more.

 

Don't forget the changeup:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/76660438/chapmans-excellent-changeup-becoming-weapon/

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jabo-aroldis-chapman-changeup-watch/

 

http://cdn.riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Aroldis-Chapman-changeup-slowmo.gif?ccc875

this makes me irrationally angry that he never used this and barely used his slider except when he was losing his fastball. What he *could* have been seems like even better than what he was (an extremely valuable relief pitcher)

 

But maybe I'm being really silly, and I shouldn't second guess the pitcher and pitching coaches in question. It just totally baffles me he opts to be a 1.5 pitch pitcher instead of using a repertoire that could make him borderline unhittable. But there's obviously more to it than that.

 

I hope we re-sign Dex but wont be crushed if we can't. I feel like its likely Rondon will bounce back, but another stud closer/reliever is definitely on the way.