10/25 World Series Game 1: Cubs (Lester) vs Indians (Kluber) 7 p.m., FOX

[gobigred]

Well at least Atlanta was solid again tonight ..best show on tv

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We obviously need a good Arrieta start tomorrow more than any of his other starts, but...at what point does this whole 'I need Montero to catch for me' become an issue?

 

Sometime in 2017, if then.

 

Does that mean you prefer Montero tomorrow over Contreras? It's not like Willson is some terrible defensive/framing catcher. I mean, if he can catch for Hendricks, why not Jake?

 

Contreras can play in the outfield, and against a RH starter there isn't much difference between Montero and Coghlan when you consider the defensive alignment needed for either to play.

[imb]

ehh all we have to do is hit trevor bauer (5.25 era since aug. 1) and the first two games were a big net positive.

[ConstableRabbit]

That was an annoying loss but they didn't really hit Lester hard, Schwarbs looked amazing and we showed the we can get to Miller.

 

Let's just go out and start winning.

[squally1313]

 

Sometime in 2017, if then.

 

Does that mean you prefer Montero tomorrow over Contreras? It's not like Willson is some terrible defensive/framing catcher. I mean, if he can catch for Hendricks, why not Jake?

 

Contreras can play in the outfield, and against a RH starter there isn't much difference between Montero and Coghlan when you consider the defensive alignment needed for either to play.

 

So do you think there's no real difference between Coghlan and Contreras in the outfield? I know tonight it didn't end up mattering at all (from what I can remember). Genuinely asking, not necessarily trying to dispute.

 

And I guess long term picture, since you said 2017, when Schwarber comes back how would you want to play it?

[snoodmonger]

Let's just bomb the goon they run out there tomorrow and go home with a split. And I'm not sure I want to see Rondon pitch again. He hasn't looked right in a long time. Edited October 26, 2016 by snoodmonger

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Does that mean you prefer Montero tomorrow over Contreras? It's not like Willson is some terrible defensive/framing catcher. I mean, if he can catch for Hendricks, why not Jake?

 

Contreras can play in the outfield, and against a RH starter there isn't much difference between Montero and Coghlan when you consider the defensive alignment needed for either to play.

 

So do you think there's no real difference between Coghlan and Contreras in the outfield? I know tonight it didn't end up mattering at all (from what I can remember). Genuinely asking, not necessarily trying to dispute.

 

And I guess long term picture, since you said 2017, when Schwarber comes back how would you want to play it?

 

I'm a longtime skeptic of Coghlan's defensive abilities, so given Contreras' arm and footspeed I'd probably prefer he be out there from a defensive standpoint alone.

 

As far as 2017 goes, this is subject to change, but I imagine Montero will catch most Arrieta starts and also be used against RH starters when rest needs it(e.g. night/day combos), Contreras will get the bulk of the remaining starts, and Schwarber will catch 10 games at the most(he'll be a mainstay in LF).

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

Does that mean you prefer Montero tomorrow over Contreras? It's not like Willson is some terrible defensive/framing catcher. I mean, if he can catch for Hendricks, why not Jake?

 

Contreras can play in the outfield, and against a RH starter there isn't much difference between Montero and Coghlan when you consider the defensive alignment needed for either to play.

 

So do you think there's no real difference between Coghlan and Contreras in the outfield? I know tonight it didn't end up mattering at all (from what I can remember). Genuinely asking, not necessarily trying to dispute.

 

And I guess long term picture, since you said 2017, when Schwarber comes back how would you want to play it?

 

In 2017, Willson is going to be an All-Star. And he is going to catch whenever the hell he wants to catch. That's how I would play it.

 

For now, I'm OK with it, especially since we have the DH at our disposal tomorrow to potentially get Schwarber and Willson in the lineup.

[Buster]

Good news is 6 run losses count the same as 1 run losses. Go out and win tomorrow and salvage the split. Heading back to Chicago at 1-1 is a win.

[squally1313]

I know way better than to try and respond to converse with TT and Duke separately, so...

 

I think Contreras is better than Montero behind the plate now, tomorrow, and pretty much forever going forward. People were worried about the Indians running on Lester tonight, I'm worried about them running on Montero tomorrow. If Montero really gives something that makes Jake more effective, then great, I guess, but I'd really like to see it tomorrow. I know this is over-reactionary for everything Jake has given us, but I'm pretty sure Contreras can guide Jake to 3 ER in 5 innings.

[soccer10k]

CUBS are 7-1 this postseason when they score a run

CUBS are 0-3 this postseason when they don't score a run

 

So we score and we win.

[Brian]

Schwarb gonna destroy Bauer

[Old Style]

Anyone have a pic of where that Schwarber ball hit the wall?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I know way better than to try and respond to converse with TT and Duke separately, so...

 

I think Contreras is better than Montero behind the plate now, tomorrow, and pretty much forever going forward. People were worried about the Indians running on Lester tonight, I'm worried about them running on Montero tomorrow. If Montero really gives something that makes Jake more effective, then great, I guess, but I'd really like to see it tomorrow. I know this is over-reactionary for everything Jake has given us, but I'm pretty sure Contreras can guide Jake to 3 ER in 5 innings.

 

Arrieta's stuff is by far the hardest to handle on the staff, and Montero has done the best job of receiving that stuff. I haven't checked recently, but IIRC every strong outing Jake has had in the 2nd half has been with Montero catching. It's not a guarantee, Jake still has the most influence, but Montero is going to do a much better job of stealing strikes and knowing his stuff best for how to attack hitters.

 

As far as the running game goes, that's definitely something to keep an eye on, but I don't think it's reason to avoid Montero's game calling benefits. Here's Arrieta's recent starts:

 

NLCS/Montero: Reddick stole 2nd and 3rd

NLDS/Montero: No attempts

Pittsburgh/Montero: No attempts

St. Louis/Montero: No attempts, Montero picked Adams off

Milwaukee/Contreras: Villar steals 2nd twice

Houston/Ross: No attempts

San Fran/Contreras: Crawford stole 2nd and 3rd

Pittsburgh/Contreras: 2 of 3 SB successful

San Diego/Contreras: Jankowski steals 3rd

Milwaukee/Contreras: Perez steals 2nd

 

Not only does there not seem to be a huge uptick in attempts, but Contreras doesn't seem to have much of an impact either way.

[mul21]

Any chance you mods have looked to see if our buddy bigred has a familiar IP address?

[CubmanPi]

CUBS are 7-1 this postseason when they score a run

CUBS are 0-3 this postseason when they don't score a run.

Go CUBS !!

[Clem Fandango]

Schwarber looked good.

 

Schwarber crushing a near dong off Corey friggin' Kluber with next to no live pitching experience over the last 5-6 months was better than I thought he'd do, and an exceptional sign for things to come. If he can crush a pitch that well off a guy who was pitching THAT good, then it bodes well for Schwarbs the rest of the series.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I know way better than to try and respond to converse with TT and Duke separately, so...

 

I think Contreras is better than Montero behind the plate now, tomorrow, and pretty much forever going forward. People were worried about the Indians running on Lester tonight, I'm worried about them running on Montero tomorrow. If Montero really gives something that makes Jake more effective, then great, I guess, but I'd really like to see it tomorrow. I know this is over-reactionary for everything Jake has given us, but I'm pretty sure Contreras can guide Jake to 3 ER in 5 innings.

 

I've vacillated on Miggy or Willson catching Jake practically every time Jake's started. One the hand, I see why Miggy is a good guy to have back there for him. He's pretty much the best framer in the league. Jake's a guy with a lot of movement on his stuff and he's had troubles hitting his spots. Miggy knows what he's doing back there and knows Jake and his stuff better than anyone. But, Jake's been unreliable, regardless of whatever we do to try to make him comfortable. You just can't designate a personal catcher to a guy pitching like a #4, because you might need to score some runs if he pitches like we've grown accustomed to seeing.

 

And it's not like Willson is a train wreck or anything back there. He's graded out well with his framing. He's got a cannon for an arm. He's done a good job blocking pitches. He knows what he's doing back there, too. Hell, he caught and called an absolute gem from Kyle over the weekend in the biggest game of our lifetimes. So, I think I'd like to drop the idea of Jake being exclusive to Miggy.

 

Where this game is a little different for me is because of the matchups. We have Schwarber back and can DH him. We have a hole in one of the corner outfield spots, thanks to Heyward being Heyward. So there is a spot there for Willson, if you still want to use him. And Bauer isn't overpowering or anything. He's had problems walking guys. Miggy always takes good ABs, even when he isn't hitting. He's disciplined and has a good eye. He's a decent bet to get on base, or even go deep, off Bauer. It's not like we are stuck using Miggy against Kershaw or something. I just think it's a good opportunity tomorrow to hope the Jake-Miggy connection pays off.

[Clem Fandango]

ehh all we have to do is hit trevor bauer (5.25 era since aug. 1 and only 4 fingers) and the first two games were a big net positive.

 

FTFY

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Schwarber looked good.

 

Schwarber crushing a near dong off Corey friggin' Kluber with next to no live pitching experience over the last 5-6 months was better than I thought he'd do, and an exceptional sign for things to come. If he can crush a pitch that well off a guy who was pitching THAT good, then it bodes well for Schwarbs the rest of the series.

 

Possibly more impressive was facing those two guys, with such nasty movement on their pitches, and being incredibly disciplined. and it wasn't like he was just up there taking. When the pitch actually was a strike, he was taking big, aggressive hacks. He was locked in, as far as recognizing pitches and attacking the good ones. He was just a little off on some pitches. But he did put a drive into that one. He's a freak.

[squally1313]

I know way better than to try and respond to converse with TT and Duke separately, so...

 

I think Contreras is better than Montero behind the plate now, tomorrow, and pretty much forever going forward. People were worried about the Indians running on Lester tonight, I'm worried about them running on Montero tomorrow. If Montero really gives something that makes Jake more effective, then great, I guess, but I'd really like to see it tomorrow. I know this is over-reactionary for everything Jake has given us, but I'm pretty sure Contreras can guide Jake to 3 ER in 5 innings.

 

Arrieta's stuff is by far the hardest to handle on the staff, and Montero has done the best job of receiving that stuff. I haven't checked recently, but IIRC every strong outing Jake has had in the 2nd half has been with Montero catching. It's not a guarantee, Jake still has the most influence, but Montero is going to do a much better job of stealing strikes and knowing his stuff best for how to attack hitters.

 

As far as the running game goes, that's definitely something to keep an eye on, but I don't think it's reason to avoid Montero's game calling benefits. Here's Arrieta's recent starts:

 

NLCS/Montero: Reddick stole 2nd and 3rd

NLDS/Montero: No attempts

Pittsburgh/Montero: No attempts

St. Louis/Montero: No attempts, Montero picked Adams off

Milwaukee/Contreras: Villar steals 2nd twice

Houston/Ross: No attempts

San Fran/Contreras: Crawford stole 2nd and 3rd

Pittsburgh/Contreras: 2 of 3 SB successful

San Diego/Contreras: Jankowski steals 3rd

Milwaukee/Contreras: Perez steals 2nd

 

Not only does there not seem to be a huge uptick in attempts, but Contreras doesn't seem to have much of an impact either way.

 

Thank you for doing the dirty work on this.

 

This is where I started looking through Montero starts vs Arrieta starts to find the overlaps, and to be honest you're probably right, outside of an August 23rd outing where Jake went 8 scoreless against San Diego with Willson catching. The issue is that that was his last 'good-Jake' start besides his shutdown outing against the Cardinals, which I think everyone remembers. Other than that he's been pretty ordinary, if not below average. I think he can pitch that way to Contreras or Montero, so I don't see the need to cater to him.

 

And I also think Coghlan (or Soler, or Heyward/Almora) is much better in the outfield than Contreras, and that's worth something too.

 

Edit: Fixed which outfielder/catcher I was talking about in the last line.

Edited October 26, 2016 by squally1313

[squally1313]

I know way better than to try and respond to converse with TT and Duke separately, so...

 

I think Contreras is better than Montero behind the plate now, tomorrow, and pretty much forever going forward. People were worried about the Indians running on Lester tonight, I'm worried about them running on Montero tomorrow. If Montero really gives something that makes Jake more effective, then great, I guess, but I'd really like to see it tomorrow. I know this is over-reactionary for everything Jake has given us, but I'm pretty sure Contreras can guide Jake to 3 ER in 5 innings.

 

I've vacillated on Miggy or Willson catching Jake practically every time Jake's started. One the hand, I see why Miggy is a good guy to have back there for him. He's pretty much the best framer in the league. Jake's a guy with a lot of movement on his stuff and he's had troubles hitting his spots. Miggy knows what he's doing back there and knows Jake and his stuff better than anyone. But, Jake's been unreliable, regardless of whatever we do to try to make him comfortable. You just can't designate a personal catcher to a guy pitching like a #4, because you might need to score some runs if he pitches like we've grown accustomed to seeing.

 

And it's not like Willson is a train wreck or anything back there. He's graded out well with his framing. He's got a cannon for an arm. He's done a good job blocking pitches. He knows what he's doing back there, too. Hell, he caught and called an absolute gem from Kyle over the weekend in the biggest game of our lifetimes. So, I think I'd like to drop the idea of Jake being exclusive to Miggy.

 

Where this game is a little different for me is because of the matchups. We have Schwarber back and can DH him. We have a hole in one of the corner outfield spots, thanks to Heyward being Heyward. So there is a spot there for Willson, if you still want to use him. And Bauer isn't overpowering or anything. He's had problems walking guys. Miggy always takes good ABs, even when he isn't hitting. He's disciplined and has a good eye. He's a decent bet to get on base, or even go deep, off Bauer. It's not like we are stuck using Miggy against Kershaw or something. I just think it's a good opportunity tomorrow to hope the Jake-Miggy connection pays off.

 

I agree with pretty much everything you're saying. I guess, given the options, I'd take the better defensive option at both positions (Heyward by a lot and Contreras by a little) and go with Heyward giving you almost as much as Montero at the plate against a non-elite righty pitcher.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I agree with pretty much everything you're saying. I guess, given the options, I'd take the better defensive option at both positions (Heyward by a lot and Contreras by a little) and go with Heyward giving you almost as much as Montero at the plate against a non-elite righty pitcher.

 

I can see it. And, like I said, I'm pretty much over the Miggy/Jake thing. But I think the difference here, in what you are saying, is negligible enough that I might lean to the other side. And that's mainly because we don't know much about the pitcher/catcher dynamic. There might be something real there, at least with some guys. And it's pretty much impossible for us to know if it exists, or to what extent. So I'm good with matching them up whenever the matchups make it not such a crazy idea.

[Gmoney08]

Personally thought Kluber looked better than Cueto, Bum, Kershaw & Hill tonight. That 2 seamer was wicked and he was just hitting the corner or off the corner called strikes all night.

 

Knock around the next 2 bums and see if starting Kluber in game 4 if hes tired and loses some control & movement.

 

The guy looked fantastic tonight but hes not Walter Johnson.

[squally1313]

That's fair. And I think part of my motivation is definitely flawed in that I'm already thinking about next year...I want Contreras as the definitive starter and I want Jake, in his last year with the Cubs, to know if continues pitching like a 4+ FIP pitcher, he doesn't get his own catcher, and I'd like to see the continued confidence in Heyward given that he's here for a while.

 

But all of that pales in comparison to winning 4 out of the next 6 games. In terms of this decision...could go either way (and probably doesn't really matter one way or the other...baseball being baseball). I'd just love a shutdown start from Jake tomorrow, and I'd love it even more if it was with Willson controlling the game from behind the plate.