10/18 NLCS Game 3: Cubs (Jake) @ Dodgers (Rich Hill) & Stupid Old Umpire 7:00 PM CT FS1/670

[Banedon]

Incidentally, 538 has Game 3 as a pure 50/50 game.

 

Yeah, they put a lot of stock into HFA.

[Brian]

This was posted by the LA Times yesterday

 

The reason: Urias could be needed to pitch long relief in Tuesday’s Game 3, also at Dodger Stadium. Left-hander Rich Hill will start that game and has not thrown more than 93 pitches in a start as a Dodger. Since his August acquisition, blisters on Hill’s fingers have been a constant consideration in determining his start days and lengths.

 

“As unpredictable as these games are, with Rich going Game 3, and just the potential with the blister, we’re kind of not confirming yet,” Roberts said. “Every game, we’ve still got to kind of figure out how to navigate.”

[USSoccer]

 

how the two pitchers performed this year?

 

Hill is just as likely to be pitchcounted by the 5th or leave in the 2nd with blisters as he is to shut down the office for 6+. I get that Arrieta hasn't had a dominant year but I'd still rather have the guy who's demonstrated an ability to shut down teams and go deep in games against the guy who's been basically an above average to very good long reliever this year. If it ends up being bullpen v bullpen I like our chances.

 

Also, it's sort of disingenuous to cite FIP as the difference when the Cubs have a truly elite defense behind their pitchers. (@ Kyle, not you)

 

Ok, but their ERA difference is the same too

 

In like 90 fewer innings. Everything about Hill this year is an outlier or a career high. He has blister issues. He doesn't pitch deep into games. He doesn't have a fastball to set up his 6 different curveballs.

 

If the Cubs lose this game, it will be because Jake implodes or the offense is truly well and broken, and there's enough history and sample size for our hitters to suggest that isn't the case on either front.

[UMFan83]

 

How good the two have been at pitching respectively in 2016. Hill has like a full run advantage in FIP.

 

All the Cubs pitchers have higher FIPs than their ERAs partially because of reasons we already know. You would know better than I would how that translates to evaluating Arrieta vs. Hill but I sense you are trying to make us all worry about an Arrieta/Hill matchup.

 

I'm not saying we should worry. I'm saying it is silly to confidently state a pitching advantage. At best it looks like a wash. Arrieta really has been meh for awhile no matter how much we wish to deny it, but he does have a durability advantage.

 

Yeah I'm not saying we have a decided edge or anything, but I don't feel particularly fearful of facing Hill right now, maybe I'll look dumb but I just don't. As for Arrieta, even in his bad stretch since the end May, he's had several dominating starts mixed in, most recently 3 starts ago against St. Louis. If he is locked in he can still be 90% dominant Jake. If he's not, as I said earlier I like being able to throw Monty and even Rob Z in there for multiple innings to either shut down the lefty lineup or force Roberts to put righties in.

[Boris]

DO YOU HEAR THAT? I'M NOT AFRAID ANYMORE!

[Boris]

I mean this Dodgers pitching staff is being held together by popsicle sticks. The Cubs must win this series.

[BigSlick]

I think Arrieta is comfortably better than Rich Hill right now, and just looking at the postseason, has been significantly better and than Rich HIll of late

[minnesotacubsfan]

Incidentally, 538 has Game 3 as a pure 50/50 game.

 

Yeah, they put a lot of stock into HFA.

 

 

in LA. thats cool

[Brian707]

For what its worth.

 

Cubs are -200 to win this series, exactly where they were going in to game 1. I'm pretty confident the Cubs come home up 3-2.

[tawfiqmp]

One thing I'll say about Rich Hill. He throws a lot of breaking balls. I can see the Cubs lineup struggling against those. Changeups as well. This will have to be one of those games where some of our guys get on base through walks. Otherwise it'll be another long night similar to game 2.

 

For what its worth.

 

Cubs are -200 to win this series, exactly where they were going in to game 1. I'm pretty confident the Cubs come home up 3-2.

 

Honestly that means nothing. Betting trends do not indicate whether or not the Cubs/Dodgers are likely to win/lose this series. They are for people who are throwing money down and the odds of which they may or may not win. A lot of people get betting and actual odds to win a game or series confused.

 

If you want real statistical odds behind game 3 and the series try FiveThirtyEight > http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

As you can see, yes we're still statistically favored to win the series. But that also doesn't mean a whole lot. Yesterdays game, we were statistically favored to win 54-46. Tomorrow's game is 50-50. At the end of the day it's baseball. Literally anything can happen, especially in now a best of 5 where we no longer have home field advantage and Kershaw potentially pitching 2 of those 5.

Edited October 17, 2016 by tawfiqmp

[Hairyducked Idiot]

For what its worth.

 

Cubs are -200 to win this series, exactly where they were going in to game 1. I'm pretty confident the Cubs come home up 3-2.

 

Are the Dodgers +175 or better? That'd be really good value

[Brian707]

For what its worth.

 

Cubs are -200 to win this series, exactly where they were going in to game 1. I'm pretty confident the Cubs come home up 3-2.

 

Are the Dodgers +175 or better? That'd be really good value

 

 

No, +160

[Brian707]

Honestly that means nothing. Betting trends do not indicate whether or not the Cubs/Dodgers are likely to win/lose this series. They are for people who are throwing money down and the odds of which they may or may not win. A lot of people get betting and actual odds to win a game or series confused.

 

If you want real statistical odds behind game 3 and the series try FiveThirtyEight > http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

As you can see, yes we're still statistically favored to win the series. But that also doesn't mean a whole lot. Yesterdays game, we were statistically favored to win 54-46. Tomorrow's game is 50-50. At the end of the day it's baseball. Literally anything can happen, especially in now a best of 5 where we no longer have home field advantage and Kershaw potentially pitching 2 of those 5.

 

 

No horsefeathering horsefeathers, in other news water is wet

[UMFan83]

Here is my complete overreaction lineup for Game 3:

 

Fowler, CF

Bryant, 3B

Rizzo, 1B

Zobrist, 2B

Baez, SS

Soler, RF

Contreras, LF

Montero, C

Arrieta, P

 

If you really want to mix things up but keep OF defense somewhat decent, switch Contreras for Almora and hope that he can have some good ABs.

[tawfiqmp]

Honestly that means nothing. Betting trends do not indicate whether or not the Cubs/Dodgers are likely to win/lose this series. They are for people who are throwing money down and the odds of which they may or may not win. A lot of people get betting and actual odds to win a game or series confused.

 

If you want real statistical odds behind game 3 and the series try FiveThirtyEight > http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

As you can see, yes we're still statistically favored to win the series. But that also doesn't mean a whole lot. Yesterdays game, we were statistically favored to win 54-46. Tomorrow's game is 50-50. At the end of the day it's baseball. Literally anything can happen, especially in now a best of 5 where we no longer have home field advantage and Kershaw potentially pitching 2 of those 5.

 

 

No [expletive] horsefeathers, in other news water is wet

 

So it's not worth much. That was my point. No need to get angry about it. :D

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The problem I have with 538's forecast right now is that they seem to be defaulting to a very large generic pitcher bonus for all the games the Dodgers haven't announced a starter for.

[Brian707]

Honestly that means nothing. Betting trends do not indicate whether or not the Cubs/Dodgers are likely to win/lose this series. They are for people who are throwing money down and the odds of which they may or may not win. A lot of people get betting and actual odds to win a game or series confused.

 

If you want real statistical odds behind game 3 and the series try FiveThirtyEight > http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

As you can see, yes we're still statistically favored to win the series. But that also doesn't mean a whole lot. Yesterdays game, we were statistically favored to win 54-46. Tomorrow's game is 50-50. At the end of the day it's baseball. Literally anything can happen, especially in now a best of 5 where we no longer have home field advantage and Kershaw potentially pitching 2 of those 5.

 

 

No [expletive] horsefeathers, in other news water is wet

 

So it's not worth much. That was my point. No need to get angry about it. :D

 

 

Hence the reason I stated "For what its worth"

[bukie]

The problem I have with 538's forecast right now is that they seem to be defaulting to a very large generic pitcher bonus for all the games the Dodgers haven't announced a starter for.

The Dodgers strategy is to start every game with Kershaw front here on out, then go to Pedro Baez for 4 outs so Kershaw will continue to have 4 days rest between starts.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I really dont get why anyone thinks Soler is going to out play Heyward. Hit probably be just as bad with the bat and 10 times worse in the field

[tawfiqmp]

The problem I have with 538's forecast right now is that they seem to be defaulting to a very large generic pitcher bonus for all the games the Dodgers haven't announced a starter for.

 

Aside from game 6 and 7, we do know who is pitching the next 3.

 

It will be Hill-Urias-Kershaw. It's not officially announced, but those are 3 are highly likely.

 

If I had to guess game 6, I'd go with Hill and Kershaw in game 7.

[bukie]

I really dont get why anyone thinks Soler is going to out play Heyward. Hit probably be just as bad with the bat and 10 times worse in the field

Soler was objectively the 5th best hitter on the team this season, despite the overreacting to a 6 PA sample in this year's playoffs.

[Brian707]

If Kershaw starts game 7 that's only 2 days rest. He would be in the bullpen though

[UMFan83]

I really dont get why anyone thinks Soler is going to out play Heyward. Hit probably be just as bad with the bat and 10 times worse in the field

 

Probably because Soler did outplay Heyward this year (at the plate), has a crapload of power that is kind of missing from this lineup outside of Bryzzo and Javy, had an .864 OPS since Aug 1st (not including 0-6 in the playoffs so far, too lazy to do the math) and had an OPS against lefties that was 230 points higher than Heywards in 2016.

 

If you want to argue that its not worth benching Heyward against a lefty because of the drop off in defense, that's fine. But saying that he'll probably be just as bad at the plate as Heyward against a lefty is silly.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I really dont get why anyone thinks Soler is going to out play Heyward. Hit probably be just as bad with the bat and 10 times worse in the field

Soler was objectively the 5th best hitter on the team this season, despite the overreacting to a 6 PA sample in this year's playoffs.

 

 

yes, but, hes been pretty lousy against the Dodgers and at Chavez revine. Heyward has been better against both.

[Cubswin11]

If it was up to me I'd go

 

Fowler CF

Bryant 3B

Rizzo 1B

Zobrist RF

Javy 2B

Soler LF

Willson C

Russell SS

Jake P

 

But if I had to guess we will see pretty much the first 2 games lineup with catcher the only thing that may be undecided, whether it's Miggy's back or not wanting him vs a LHP.