Is Kris Bryant going to win MVP?

[David]

I honestly didn't realize KB was easily leading the NL in WAR. He's a solid half win ahead of Seager. At best, I figured we'd have Bryzzo in the conversation since both are on the best team in MLB, but I didn't realize Bryant was easily deserving.

 

If so, pretty crazy. Dude won the college MVP thing one year, then won minor league player of the year, then won NL ROY, and then wins NL MVP?

[imb]

The last month of the season can change everything and oddly enough there has been no "this is the best player in the NL" narrative yet, maybe because the focus has been on how good the cubs have been as a team.

 

With Kershaw hurt, Harper playing poorly-ish and McCutcheon being dead, you don't really have a media-anointed superstar playing like a superstar in the NL right now.

 

I'd say it's set to be one of Bryant/Rizzo/Murphy depending on how august and september go and what storylines come out of the final month.

[Banedon]

Bryant

Rizzo

Seager

Arenado

Murphy

 

Those are the guys in the conversation, right?

[David]

Bryant

Rizzo

Seager

Arenado

Murphy

 

Those are the guys in the conversation, right?

 

I'd put Crawford in there but he probably gets too much value from his defense/position to be considered seriously ahead of those guys.

[jersey cubs fan]

Is it too late for Tebow to steal some votes?

[Sammy Sofa]

No, because they don't make those games anymore.

[bukie]

Bryant

Rizzo

Seager

Arenado

Murphy

 

Those are the guys in the conversation, right?

Also Kershaw, Strasburg and Bumgarner.

[Banedon]

Bryant

Rizzo

Seager

Arenado

Murphy

 

Those are the guys in the conversation, right?

Also Kershaw, Strasburg and Bumgarner.

 

I don't think a pitcher is actually in contention this year. Even if they are, Kershaw won't be. He'll have missed too much time to injury.

[bukie]

Bryant

Rizzo

Seager

Arenado

Murphy

 

Those are the guys in the conversation, right?

Also Kershaw, Strasburg and Bumgarner.

 

I don't think a pitcher is actually in contention this year. Even if they are, Kershaw won't be. He'll have missed too much time to injury.

Kershaw still leads all pitchers in fWAR. With no standout offensive performer in the NL MVP can absolutely go to a pitcher, particularly with so many standout pitcher performances in the NL this season. I actually forgot Fernandez and Syndergaard also.

[UMFan83]

I think that while voters are more educated on WAR and defensive value etc etc and it plays a factor into the voting, I still think eye popping slash lines will get lots of votes.

 

I'm guessing that if the season ended today Daniel Murphy would win it. This is how a voter would defend it (not how I would, I'd pick Bryant or Rizzo):

 

-.350/.390/.615/1.005 slash line, 21 HR, 81 RBI and only 44K, numbers that are all higher than Bryant except HRs.

-Plays for the 2nd best team in the NL, and with Bryce Harper having a down year has stepped up as the most valuable offensive player on the team

-We the voters hate strikeouts so 44 Ks vs. 113 Ks means something

-Sure he doesn't walk nearly as much but when you are hitting .350 does it matter?

-Doing all these things as a MI makes him even more valuable

-We fell for him in the playoffs last year and love him even more for carrying his hot streak for almost a calendar year

-Bryant is great, but so is Rizzo, how can Bryant be most valuable when Rizzo is putting up a similarly great season

-We don't understand and/or trust defensive and baserunning metrics used in WAR

-Bryant is young and will win an MVP some day, Daniel Murphy is a much better story

 

*again this is not me arguing it, just how I'd expect a majority of voters would approach it*

[Buster]

Bryant and Rizzo are going to take votes from each other which will obviously hurt.

 

Right now I'd give it to Rizzo though. Best player on the best team in baseball IMO.

[sneakypower]

did you know: Kris Bryant has been the most un-clutch player in the NL?*

did you know: Addison Russell has been the most clutch player in the NL?*

 

anyway, i think Rizzo probably deserves it more but i wouldn't be outraged to see Bryant win, or Murphy steal some votes

 

 

*going off fangraphs WPA

[UMFan83]

did you know: Kris Bryant has been the most un-clutch player in the NL?*

did you know: Addison Russell has been the most clutch player in the NL?*

 

anyway, i think Rizzo probably deserves it more but i wouldn't be outraged to see Bryant win, or Murphy steal some votes

 

 

*going off fangraphs WPA

 

How fickle are those numbers on a season to season basis? I'm assuming very. I see Bryant was the 2nd most clutch player in the NL last year, now he's the least clutch player this year.

[BigSlick]

Yeah I feel like if the season ended tomorrow Daniel Murphy would win it, his numbers are just more appealing to the jugheads that decide this thing. And he plays at a more demanding defensive position (nevermind that he plays it poorly). And Rizzo will probably steal some 1st place votes from Bryant.

 

Bryant could go on a tear and really set himself apart offensively, I think if he reaches 40 home runs as an arbitrary milestone, that would mean a lot to voters.

[UMFan83]

Yeah I feel like if the season ended tomorrow Daniel Murphy would win it, his numbers are just more appealing to the jugheads that decide this thing. And he plays at a more demanding defensive position (nevermind that he plays it poorly). And Rizzo will probably steal some 1st place votes from Bryant.

 

Bryant could go on a tear and really set himself apart offensively, I think if he reaches 40 home runs as an arbitrary milestone, that would mean a lot to voters.

 

Yeah if he gets red hot again like the stretch in late June and gets his OPS up to the .950-.980 range he might become the favorite. Many were picking him as the favorite around the AS Break

[CubinNY]

Yes, and he will also be voted as the runner up.

[David]

did you know: Kris Bryant has been the most un-clutch player in the NL?*

did you know: Addison Russell has been the most clutch player in the NL?*

 

anyway, i think Rizzo probably deserves it more but i wouldn't be outraged to see Bryant win, or Murphy steal some votes

 

 

*going off fangraphs WPA

 

How fickle are those numbers on a season to season basis? I'm assuming very. I see Bryant was the 2nd most clutch player in the NL last year, now he's the least clutch player this year.

 

Very fickle and pretty meaningless IMO

 

I can see it having a little actual utility for seeing which relievers have been used most effectively (by maximizing their high leverage spots), but that's about it.

[jumbo]

 

I'd say it's set to be one of Bryant/Rizzo/Murphy depending on how august and september go and what storylines come out of the final month.

 

Heyman was on with Mully and Hanley the other day (or some show on the score) and he said it's one of these three.

[Clem Fandango]

I think you're all leaving out Kyle Hendricks who will go on his own Arrieta-like run and not give up a run until 2017.

[Banedon]

 

I'd say it's set to be one of Bryant/Rizzo/Murphy depending on how august and september go and what storylines come out of the final month.

 

Heyman was on with Mully and Hanley the other day (or some show on the score) and he said it's one of these three.

 

Unless it's someone else.

[BigSlick]

The Hey Man is never wrong

[Ding Dong Johnson]

 

I'd say it's set to be one of Bryant/Rizzo/Murphy depending on how august and september go and what storylines come out of the final month.

 

Heyman was on with Mully and Hanley the other day (or some show on the score) and he said it's one of these three.

 

Unless it's someone else.

mystery player?

[TruffleShuffle]

Bryant

Rizzo

Seager

Arenado

Murphy

 

Those are the guys in the conversation, right?

 

the betting odds here have bryant first, arenado not far behind, murphy not far behind him, then a fair gap to rizzo, then harper and seager as long shots.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yes, he is.

[muntjack]

Arenado and his .788 road OPS needs to be stricken from the conversation. Frankly, all Colorado stats need an asterisk. DJ LeMahieu has an .867 OPS for crying out loud. Of course, it's only .676 away from Coors. Story has a .746 OPS on the road. Bench players put up all-star caliber numbers and borderline all-stars look like MVPs. As a team, they have an .891 OPS at home, leading MLB. On the road it's .683, good for 27th. I believe that would be the biggest split in MLB history.