The Value of Kyle Schwarber

[UMFan83]

Dave Cameron dissects Kyle Schwarbers value, questions his offensive upside and says the Cubs should definitely consider a Miller/Chapman for Schwarber deal at the very least.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/

 

Want to see what our smart guys think about this.

[David]

Dave Cameron dissects Kyle Schwarbers value, questions his offensive upside and says the Cubs should definitely consider a Miller/Chapman for Schwarber deal at the very least.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/

 

Want to see what our smart guys think about this.

 

I may not be a smart guy but I think it's horsefeathering stupid and posted it in another thread.

 

Freaking Cameron

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-of-kyle-schwarber/

 

It’s still not enough to overcome the long-term value that Schwarber provides, but it’s at least an argument that it’s not insane for the Cubs to consider a deal involving those two, especially if the Yankees sweetened the pot.

 

Like, say, adding Aroldis Chapman to the deal. Putting Chapman and Miller in the Cubs bullpen, along with Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop, would give the Cubs the best bullpen in baseball, to go along with all the other things they’re the best at. And at that point, the short-term upgrade would be large enough that I think the Cubs would have to at least consider moving Schwarber.

 

I know the Cubs love his personality and his work ethic, and perhaps he will turn into the kind of franchise cornerstone that justifies keeping him for the future, even if he could bring back a serious upgrade to the team in the short-term. But given the questions I have about his offensive upside, in addition to the real questions about his defensive value, I think I’d at least be engaging the Yankees on a Schwarber-for-Miller-and-Chapman deal. Schwarber looks like a very nice young hitter, but the Cubs have other guys who also look like nice young hitters.

 

What they don’t have is a World Championship in the last century. Kyle Schwarber can’t help them with that this year. Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman could, and from my perspective, the short-term upgrade might be worth the long-term cost.

 

I don't understand how "smart" baseball guys can know the playoffs are a crapshoot and still think any move that requires a long term sacrifice of wins makes sense. The improvement in the odds in the playoffs for what even Miller and Chapman would bring is so damn marginal.

 

It's like, most of the informed baseball public knows the playoffs are basically a roll of the dice...making moves that sacrifice the long term to secure a playoff berth makes a lot of sense. Making moves that do so in an effort to improve the chances of a team already virtually assured of a playoff berth will never make any sense to me and people talk about it all the time. People who understand the playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

Thank god Theo and Jed obviously know this (as they've publicly said it many times).

 

 

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[UMFan83]

Yeah I figured it was worth its own thread to get more eyes on it. There are some things that I think are worth picking apart and I disagree with the overall premise but wanted to see what others thought

[David]

it's weird...now that the public is generally smarter about things (at least internet baseball fans) when it comes to baseball, the smart guys keep wanting to be contrarian so now they argue in favor of some dumb ass things.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Cameron has the annoying tendency to overreact in the opposite direction when he gets a bunch of homers berating him about a certain opinion, Law is also prone to this.

 

Schwarber is not going to be an elite player unless he becomes a better OF defender(not probable but possible given his lack of time there) or sticks as at least a part time catcher(unlikely given his knee injury and current abilities). Schwarber's contact rate/K rate is something to keep an eye on, as is his BABIP from shifts. None of the criticisms of Schwarber are inherently wrong.

 

Where he goes off the rails is in his comparisons to other players, and in translating that to Schwarber's value. Number one, look at that table of low contact guys and think about how many are actually comparable to Schwarber, especially when you consider their minor league history since Schwarber only has 300 MLB PA. Junior Lake? Avisail Garcia? Oswaldo Arcia? Get out of here. I'm not going to take the time to filter that table on those who had a MiLB wOBA over .400(Schwarber's is about .450) and also a K rate under 20%, I bet it's a whole lot closer to Kris Bryant and the rest of the guys with 120+ wRC+'s.

 

Secondly, the whole exercise implies that Schwarber's offense has to stay at 2015 levels for him to be good enough to shrug off a deal for Miller. Schwarber is not going to be a regular 4+ win MLBer unless there's an unexpected change, but he can regress a fair bit and still be a 3 win hitter under team control for 5 years. That's still worth more than Andrew Miller! And it's not terribly close. Add in any optimism you might have on his ability to maintain 2015 production, be able to catch some, or improve as an OF defender, and the math tilts even further that direction.

 

 

tl;dr Cubs fans at large overrate Schwarber, which annoyed Cameron so much that he tried to find a way to use Schwarber's true limitations to justify a Schwarber/Miller deal. He failed.

[sneakypower]

he draws grand, sweeping assumptions based off not even half a season's data; i'm reasonably confident Schwarber closes up holes in swing some like Javy, KB, Rizzo, Russell have

 

also Neyer looks like an infantile loser about this topic- when Schwarber tore his knee, he basically tweeted "see, told ya!"

[Sammy Sofa]

40 rods to the hogshead, and no more.

[Andy]

I keep telling people this, and I think I stole it from someone on here - if Schwarber hadn't gotten hurt, he's probably mashing again, to the tune of a .850+ OPS and maybe 15 HR, and no one is talking about trading him for a reliever because it would be horsefeathering laughable.

[squally1313]

Cameron has the annoying tendency to overreact in the opposite direction when he gets a bunch of homers berating him about a certain opinion, Law is also prone to this.

 

Schwarber is not going to be an elite player unless he becomes a better OF defender(not probable but possible given his lack of time there) or sticks as at least a part time catcher(unlikely given his knee injury and current abilities). Schwarber's contact rate/K rate is something to keep an eye on, as is his BABIP from shifts. None of the criticisms of Schwarber are inherently wrong.

 

Where he goes off the rails is in his comparisons to other players, and in translating that to Schwarber's value. Number one, look at that table of low contact guys and think about how many are actually comparable to Schwarber, especially when you consider their minor league history since Schwarber only has 300 MLB PA. Junior Lake? Avisail Garcia? Oswaldo Arcia? Get out of here. I'm not going to take the time to filter that table on those who had a MiLB wOBA over .400(Schwarber's is about .450) and also a K rate under 20%? I bet it's a whole lot closer to Kris Bryant and the rest of the guys with 120+ wRC+'s.

 

Secondly, the whole exercise implies that Schwarber's offense has to stay at 2015 levels for him to be good enough to shrug off a deal for Miller. Schwarber is not going to be a regular 4+ win MLBer unless there's an unexpected change, but he can regress a fair bit and still be a 3 win hitter under team control for 5 years. That's still worth more than Andrew Miller! And it's not terribly close. Add in any optimism you might have on his ability to maintain 2015 production, be able to catch some, or improve as an OF defender, and the math tilts even further that direction.

 

 

tl;dr Cubs fans at large overrate Schwarber, which annoyed Cameron so much that he tried to find a way to use Schwarber's true limitations to justify a Schwarber/Miller deal. He failed.

 

I'd love to see this response put out in the comments of the article, just to see the reactions from not just Cubs fans (and maybe Cameron himself). Great work, as always.

[David]

he draws grand, sweeping assumptions based off not even half a season's data; i'm reasonably confident Schwarber closes up holes in swing some like Javy, KB, Rizzo, Russell have

 

also Neyer looks like an infantile loser about this topic- when Schwarber tore his knee, he basically tweeted "see, told ya!"

 

And even without getting into specifics as far as his analysis of Schwarber as a player, the whole concept of a team that basically has a playoff berth etched in stone in July trading off future value in the name of maximizing playoff performance is really really silly.

[davell]

Not a smart guy, but that's a very stupid article.

 

Schwarber came up, mashed, and hasn't truly even had a real adjustment period yet. He's got off the charts makeup, which can and maybe even likely, will, affect his progress in a positive way. I love analytics, but Cameron fails because he doesn't acknowledge the scouting side nearly enough.

[sneakypower]

Schwarber probably thinking, "sorry, that my 45 dong, 86 BB pace as a rookie one year removed from NCAAs wasn't good enough for you, Davey"

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm truly baffled by some of he stuff I've read regarding Schwarber. He was a consensus top-10 prospect at mid-season last year, and then came up to the big leagues and put up 1.9 fWAR in 273 PA. He did this as a rookie, at 22, one year removed from being drafted. He also ran roughshod through the playoffs, too.

 

TT pretty much broke down this article perfectly. Well, Dave, Junior Lake sucks because he doesn't have 40 home run power. Kyle Schwarber does. And, yes, I will compare him to Kris Bryant, of those guys on your list, because Bryant is the only one on there that can hit the ball like Kyle Schwarber. And, sure, defenses can shift him. That might hurt him some. But a shift isn't going to matter on those 45 balls that fly out of the park. That's where his value is coming from.

 

And then he's going to base all of this nonsense off of less than half a season worth of plate appearances, like sneaky says? That's silly.

 

The craziest thing to me is that people seem to make it out as a binary answer. Do you trade Kyle Schwarber or do you decide to not upgrade your bullpen? Well, as you saw yesterday, you can upgrade your bullpen without trading Kyle Schwarber. And what David's said is spot on. We really don't upgrade our playoff chances by adding Miller. What's it go up from 98.0% to 98.2%? So now we are looking at adding him for maybe, just maybe, the chance of having him pitch in what maybe, just maybe, a close game in what maybe, just maybe, a tight series. And maybe, just maybe, he doesn't give up a run in that game that Mike Montgomery or whoever else ultimately does give up a run. Or, you know, Andrew Miller might suck in the playoffs. Or get hurt before them or whatever. Adding a guy doesn't guarantee anything. We are just hoping he comes up big in a spot or two, where any of our other options might fail. Or it could go like last year, where we beat the dog piss out of our first opponent and then get pummeled by our second opponent. And then we are left with a stupid relief pitcher for two more years, while Kyle Schwarber is fulfilling Cashman's fantasy of hitting 50 home runs in Yankee Stadium.

 

It's just a bad bet. And it's not worth it. And any team would be stupid to do it.

 

I'm going to write an article about this.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm going to write an article about this.

get on it

[minnesotacubsfan]

Nsb is turning into deadspin

[minnesotacubsfan]

You don't. Instead you force mlb to ok the DH for the nl

[Banedon]

I'm truly baffled by some of he stuff I've read regarding Schwarber. He was a consensus top-10 prospect at mid-season last year, and then came up to the big leagues and put up 1.9 fWAR in 273 PA. He did this as a rookie, at 22, one year removed from being drafted. He also ran roughshod through the playoffs, too.

 

TT pretty much broke down this article perfectly. Well, Dave, Junior Lake sucks because he doesn't have 40 home run power. Kyle Schwarber does. And, yes, I will compare him to Kris Bryant, of those guys on your list, because Bryant is the only one on there that can hit the ball like Kyle Schwarber. And, sure, defenses can shift him. That might hurt him some. But a shift isn't going to matter on those 45 balls that fly out of the park. That's where his value is coming from.

 

And then he's going to base all of this nonsense off of less than half a season worth of plate appearances, like sneaky says? That's silly.

 

The craziest thing to me is that people seem to make it out as a binary answer. Do you trade Kyle Schwarber or do you decide to not upgrade your bullpen? Well, as you saw yesterday, you can upgrade your bullpen without trading Kyle Schwarber. And what David's said is spot on. We really don't upgrade our playoff chances by adding Miller. What's it go up from 98.0% to 98.2%? So now we are looking at adding him for maybe, just maybe, the chance of having him pitch in what maybe, just maybe, a close game in what maybe, just maybe, a tight series. And maybe, just maybe, he doesn't give up a run in that game that Mike Montgomery or whoever else ultimately does give up a run. Or, you know, Andrew Miller might suck in the playoffs. Or get hurt before them or whatever. Adding a guy doesn't guarantee anything. We are just hoping he comes up big in a spot or two, where any of our other options might fail. Or it could go like last year, where we beat the dog piss out of our first opponent and then get pummeled by our second opponent. And then we are left with a stupid relief pitcher for two more years, while Kyle Schwarber is fulfilling Cashman's fantasy of hitting 50 home runs in Yankee Stadium.

 

It's just a bad bet. And it's not worth it. And any team would be stupid to do it.

 

I'm going to write an article about this.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Due to his very real flaws, when does trading Schwarber start to make sense? For me it is before his second arb season, and likely only for a premium SP talent.

 

I think the question is 'for what' instead of 'when'. I'd trade Schwarber today in a deal for any number of players, it just so happens about 0.0% of them are relievers. That's the particularly maddening part about the backlash to Cubs fans hating the rumors, it's much more about 'don't give up big assets for relievers' than 'we can't ever trade Schwarber'. Change the name and I'm far more agreeable, Soler, Almora, Torres, Happ, Jimenez, maybe Baez? Not taking any of them off the table for a player of Miller's caliber. The moonshot masher who's a pretty safe bet to put up 15 WAR in the rest of his team control? No.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm going to write an article about this.

get on it

 

It might take me awhile. I have to catch up on all the board's action today. And also, I have so much to say that this thing is going to make my previous articles seem fleeting in comparison.

[David]

maybe i'm too biased after watching all these young players pan out, but i don't trade eloy for a reliever. nope nope nope. so we can maybe have a half a percent better chance in the playoffs or something? nope. fully expect to be ridiculed too.

 

even if we're making the argument there were a glaring hole in the bullpen that could prove fatal in the playoffs, crapshootiness be damned, there would have to be someone available to mitigate that hole who wouldn't cost any legit future value. kind of like yesterday's trade.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

maybe i'm too biased after watching all these young players pan out, but i don't trade eloy for a reliever. nope nope nope. fully expect to be ridiculed too.

 

I don't even necessarily think 'yes I would trade this player for Miller today', but I don't think any of those guys is an unreasonable ask for the Yankees to make. Asking for Schwarber is a nonserious starting point, asking for any of those other guys listed is a point from where reasonable minds can disagree.

[David]

maybe i'm too biased after watching all these young players pan out, but i don't trade eloy for a reliever. nope nope nope. fully expect to be ridiculed too.

 

I don't even necessarily think 'yes I would trade this player for Miller today', but I don't think any of those guys is an unreasonable ask for the Yankees to make. Asking for Schwarber is a nonserious starting point, asking for any of those other guys listed is a point from where reasonable minds can disagree.

 

Fair enough.

[squally1313]

The main appeal of Miller to me isn't the 5 or 6 innings he'd be a slight upgrade over Montgomery in the playoffs, but the next two years of reliable relief pitching he'd be able to give us. That's why I'd consider someone like Eloy. Not someone who has made it here and shown he can dong with the best of them.

 

Chapman, all things considered is worthless and should die in a fire soon.

[CubinNY]

The main appeal of Miller to me isn't the 5 or 6 innings he'd be a slight upgrade over Montgomery in the playoffs, but the next two years of reliable relief pitching he'd be able to give us. That's why I'd consider someone like Eloy. Not someone who has made it here and shown he can dong with the best of them.

 

Chapman, all things considered is worthless and should die in a fire soon.

no

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I have said this before (several times), but I'll say it again. Eloy will be everything we thought Georgie would be and more.