Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-10-16

[Tim]

Also, funny line in the azl cubs game tonight. They've given up 12 runs on three walks and nine hits, with no home runs. You almost have to try to make that happen.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/George-Costanza-Squirts-Ketchup-at-Table-Seinfeld.gif

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Was there an exit velocity reading on that thing?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So I just went through a bit more thorough of a reordering of my prospect list. I feel pretty good about all the guys 1-13, but I think things are pretty much a mess once you get past there.

 

1. Willson Contreras

2. Ian Happ

3. Eloy Jimenez

4. Albert Almora

5. Gleyber Torres

6. Carl Edwards Jr.

7. Dylan Cease

8. Mark Zagunis

9. Jeimer Candelario

10. Dan Vogelbach

11. Victor Caratini

12. Billy McKinney

13. Eddy Julio Martinez

 

I'm planning on updating my rankings in the next day or two. Any chance we can get Jesus Castillo added (if he's not on there already)?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Eloy did that after already dominating the Midwest League All-Star Game, too. I guess this performance was a little more special, being that he was, I would assume, one of the youngest guys in the game. And it was under the big lights, with all the big stars there. But, it's nice to see him show himself as the star of stars whenever he's had the chance.

[Gmoney08]

Lets trade Schwarber, Almora, Baez, Soler, Vogelbach, and Cease for Trout and just plug Eloy in LF if Fowler has hammy issues. Right now...

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law[/url]"]• Eloy Jimenez introduced himself to the viewing public in rather dramatic fashion, first making one of the best defensive plays I've ever seen, ranging way over into foul territory and leaping to grab a foul popup from beyond the fence, then turning on a 95-mph fastball in the ninth inning for a home run off the top balcony on the Western Metals facade in left field. Jimenez has always had the potential for that kind of power, but big leaguers don't often hit balls where he hit that one. It was his third hard-hit ball in as many at-bats, including a ground-ball double on a slider coming in on him, and the swing is simple and sound. He's hitting .332/.372/.527 this year as a 19-year-old in low-A for the Cubs and I feel pretty good about his chances of becoming a star.

[Tim]

Martinez finished 2-4 with a BB and K.

 

Fun with arbitrary end points..

 

Since 5/3 (240 PAs): .287/.375/.440 with a 19.6% K rate

 

Since 6/2 (136 PAs): .338/.404/.466 with a 20% K rate

 

A little off here....

 

.339/.414/.500 over 140 PAs since 6/2

 

He keeps this up and he'll be top 5 post-deadline and/or end of season.

Post deadline, the only one likely to have exhausted rookie eligibility is Contreras. Who would you kick out of the top five for him: Happ, Eloy, Gleyber, Almora, Cease?

[ctcf]

Can't believe I'm mad about the Futures Game MVP, but here we are.

[Tim]

Can't believe I'm mad about the Futures Game MVP, but here we are.

IIRC, it is often given to the the top prospect that has a good game instead of the guy with the best game.

[craig]

I'm beginning to think that my optimism about DJ Wilson and Kevonte Mitchell coming into this year may have been unfounded.

 

Heh heh, yeah. Being a great kid with a bundle of tools (speed, great CF defense, arm, some pop), that's a great start. But if you can't actually hit the ball, hitting is the one tool you can't live without, and can't "develop" either.

[Tim]

I'm beginning to think that my optimism about DJ Wilson and Kevonte Mitchell coming into this year may have been unfounded.

 

Heh heh, yeah. Being a great kid with a bundle of tools (speed, great CF defense, arm, some pop), that's a great start. But if you can't actually hit the ball, hitting is the one tool you can't live without, and can't "develop" either.

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say *can't* develop, but let's just agree on *really unlikely* to develop.

[UMFan83]

Can't believe I'm mad about the Futures Game MVP, but here we are.

IIRC, it is often given to the the top prospect that has a good game instead of the guy with the best game.

 

I was reading on twitter that Eloy didn't win it because they wanted to avoid giving the award to a Cubs prospect in consecutive years (Schwarbs won it last year). Not sure if that is fact or random twitter speculation

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Here's some of that BP:

 

http://24.media.tumblr.com/053bb3098b2958bfda7b8b343460041e/tumblr_n5v3dtdnfH1r9zwveo1_500.gif

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm this close to saying [expletive] it and just ranking Eloy first. I'm all in on him.

 

Assuming you're not considering Willson in your rankings, I'm almost there too. And BP ranked him #1 in the Cubs system in their midseason top 50 rankings.

[Thrilho]

I'm this close to saying [expletive] it and just ranking Eloy first. I'm all in on him.

 

Assuming you're not considering Willson in your rankings, I'm almost there too. And BP ranked him #1 in the Cubs system in their midseason top 50 rankings.

 

This doesn't matter much but I've had him number 1 (aside from Contreras) since my first ranking on 6/26, and he's survived there through Happ's otherworldly onslaught. It's really hard for me to rank a corner outfielder ahead of Torres and Happ, especially based strictly on numbers, but that raw power combined with the ability to hit .330 through half a season is real impressive. BABIP blah blah blah. He's 19, so he has lots of time to tighten up those Ks, which should help keep his BA pretty high.

 

Plus I keep running over the swing he put on that second homer from the two HR game. It was about as smooth and effortless as it gets. And to hear he made a defensive play that would've been something like a top 5 in 2016 MLB really helps that positional ranking.

 

So Torres and Happ have really been making it hard to keep him at the top but that ceiling is just sky high.

 

I'll also use this post to invite any EJM lumps I've earned. One of my general stances is that once a guy has shown something I'm a little more sticky with his ranking. And I don't really like corner OFs. To me, he hadn't shown enough results at the point where Tom & I had our discussion. Peripherals trending nicely but still hadn't shown enough batting average or power for me. He's really turned it on lately. He's back at least into my top 15, but I've got to do another sweep to see exactly where. Either way, now that he's had this stretch I'll ride with him a little longer through any bad stretches.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I haven't played around with the prospect ranking feature yet, but yeah, I've had Contreras #1 and Eloy #2 since Eloy's HR tear at the beginning of June (I think that's when it was). Think my list looks something like this right now.

 

1. Contreras

2. Eloy

3. Happ

4. Torres

5. Almora

6. Cease

7. Edwards

8. Candelario

9. Caratini

10. Zagunis

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I haven't played around with the prospect ranking feature yet, but yeah, I've had Contreras #1 and Eloy #2 since Eloy's HR tear at the beginning of June (I think that's when it was). Think my list looks something like this right now.

 

1. Contreras

2. Eloy

3. Happ

4. Torres

5. Almora

6. Cease

7. Edwards

8. Candelario

9. Caratini

10. Zagunis

 

Oh shoot I forgot about EJM. He'd probably be ahead of Caratini and Zagunis for me.

[Thrilho]

I just wanted to note that although I put Jimenez first, it's pretty close to a toss up for me between he Torres and Happ. This is one instance where defense and age are huge differentiators that I'm not sure how to rank. Like if Torres ends up an average short stop vs a plus short stop does that equal a win? More?

 

Regardless of where he ranks against Jimenez and Happ, he's really having a great season, and seems to me like he's getting shorted by BP's 34th place ranking. With the batting line, peripherals and age I'd think they'd be knocking his defense to put him that low. And maybe they are, but they say:

 

There’s no real weakness to Torres’ game. Everything but the power flashes above-average to plus, and his instincts both at the plate and in the field are impressive for any age, much less a 19-year-old.

 

Then the "why he might fail" seems like a pretty big cop out.

 

"If he doesn’t stick at shortstop, he doesn’t have the offensive skill set to be a first-division regular. That’s all I got."

 

Okey dokey, doesn't seem like much of a stance for how low they put him and also listing him as "MI" instead of short stop. Hopefully we'll get some more write-ups on his defense as the midseason rankings start coming in, and I'd think that will go a long way toward solidifying ranking.

 

But looking back, a lot of the young short stops got big bumps after their age 19 seasons. Everyone I checked on had pretty a good season, but none seemed to really blow Torres away where he shouldn't be a top 20 prospect or close to it. BA ranked Bogaerts #58 before his age 19 season and #8 after; Lindor #37 before, #28 after; Russell #48 before, #14 after; Baez #61 before, #16 after.

 

And most of these post-19 season rankings seem pretty low in retrospect. We're still talking about 19 year old players and some of those bust, but Lindor and Russell's were kind of crazy. So here are the batting lines and archaic fielding metrics for some of the MLB's young guns in their age 19 season to compare with Torres. None had a birthday in-season, so were 19 all the way through and only Javy spent time at low A.

 

BA/OBP/Slg___BB%/K%___wOBA/wRC+

 

Russell (A+): .275/.377/.508___12.1%/23.0%___.370/131

Lindor (A+): .306/.373/.410___ 9.4%/10.5%___.363/121

Bogaerts (A+): .302/.378/.505___9.9%/19.5%___.393/144

Baez (A ): .333/.383/.596___3.3%/20.4%___.432/170 (235 PA)

Baez (A+): .188/.244/.400___5.8%/24.4%___.288/76 (86 PA)

 

Torres (A+): .268/.347/.420___9.7%/21.4%___.354/118 (359 PA) full season

Torres (A+): .283/.361/.445___9.6%/19.9%___.370/128 (290 PA) since 4/14

Torres (A+): .297/.367/.458___8.9%/20.1%___.378/133 (236 PA) since 5/1

 

Torres sucked bad the first week, kinda sucked the first month, then has been cruising. But his walks, Ks, and ISO have stayed pretty consistent the whole year. So whether you want to take the full season 118 wRC+ or the 133 his numbers stack up fairly well against all these guys.

 

- He's K'ing right in line with Bogaerts and better than Russell and Baez. Baez and Russell are still wild cards with the Ks, so saying he's in line with them maybe doesn't say much. But 20% as a 19 year old at A+ is pretty good, when Happ had a 23.5% at age 21 (nearly 22).

 

- His power isn't where Russell, Bogaerts, or Baez were, but Russell played in the California league. And Bogaerts only ended the season with 15 HRs in 435 PAs where Torres is at 9 in 359 now. And Torres has gone on power binges, like May when he hit 5 and had a .213 ISO. So it's in there.

 

- The walks are still real sexy. Matchup well with any of the three patient guys

 

- Forgot to look it up, but has 17 SBs in 24 tries. Not a great percentage, but you figure he'll have some value on the bases.

 

 

Then here are the fielding numbers. Again, archaic metrics kept by guys who probably aren't paying much attention to the game. But with an outlet like BP not willing to pick a lane on the defense it's the best I've got.

 

Fld% / RF/9

 

Russell

18: .951/4.29

19: .966/3.99

20: .985/4.78

MLB: .975/3.87

 

Lindor

18: .968/4.54

19: .952/4.48

20: .971/4.41

MLB: .979/4.28

 

Bogaerts

18: .924/4.59

19: .959/4.39

20: .950/3.89

MLB: .979/4.09

 

Baez

18: SSS

19: .950/4.59

20: .932/5.04

MLB: .974/4.41

 

Torres

18: .949/4.26

19: .956/4.43

 

To me, it looks like he compares pretty favorably. His range this year is up near Bogaerts/Lindor territory, and none of these guys were doing much better than .950 fielding percentage. A lot of these guys had huge jumps in their fielding percentages in their age 20 seasons and shortly thereafter, so we'll have to see how that shakes out with Torres.

 

But right now his fielding metrics don't scream "not a shortstop" at me. I just don't know without being a scout and watching him where I should be projecting him to fall on that massive WAR swing between "ok shortstop" and "good shortstop."

 

But right now I'm going to wait for some prospect ranking guys to tell me their opinion on his defense before putting Happ ahead. Happ's needs to keep hitting with otherworldly power to outdo that potential plus short stop with patience mold. And after his hot start at AA he's only at a .204 ISO after finishing A+ with a .179 ISO. He's matching Torres with 9 HRs in basically the same number of PAs (354). He cut his Ks wayyyyy down, as he's sitting at 11.5% but as a testament to SSS he's only walking at 6.6%.

 

Again, the defense looks awesome and he's hitting .407 with a 199 wRC+, so I'm not trying to knock him. He's in the toss up with Torres and Jimenez. Once he starts going ape horsefeathers again I'm sure I'll waffle. But I'm going to wait for it to happen. I really think all three should have a pretty good shot at being top 25, they're just all new on the scene and could use a full season of domination to get them there.

 

But TL;DR I'm still going Jimenez, Torres, Happ but after doing this little analysis I'm re-pumped about Torres.