2016 Trade Deadline

[Sammy Sofa]

I think Jorge still has star hitter in him. Those glimpses he shows are so tantalizing. He was on a pretty good tear when he got hurt, too.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=14221&legend=1&stat=woba&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2016&end=2016&rtype=single&gt1=15

 

Yeah, but he sucks so much at everything else that he basically would have to be God mode more often than not.

[davell]

I am not the biggest Soler fan but I'd still rather trade Slappy Almora. At least Soler's got an offensive game that goes beyond making mediocre types of contact. Heeeeellllllll no to moving a Soler for a brittle reliever like Doolittle.

 

Yes, because Soler is the absolute epitomy of health.

[Clem Fandango]

Let's just trade for all three of the Yankees relievers. That's a realistic plan right?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am not the biggest Soler fan but I'd still rather trade Slappy Almora. At least Soler's got an offensive game that goes beyond making mediocre types of contact. Heeeeellllllll no to moving a Soler for a brittle reliever like Doolittle.

 

Yes, because Soler is the absolute epitomy of health.

 

Focus on the noun more than the adjective. Soler for a reliever that is not Betances or mayyyybe Miller is probably a hard no.

 

That said, I agree that trading Soler doesn't really open up a hole so there's little downside in him being your centerpiece in a big trade. That trade would need to be in the Gray/Teheran mold though and not for a reliever just because we need one and trading Soler doesn't leave a chasm to be filled in the OF.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Let's just trade for all three of the Yankees relievers. That's a realistic plan right?

 

Only if you really think that the Yankees are going to do a full rebuild.

[Little Slide Rooter]

In the midst of the worst stretch in relevant memory, I suppose that the board deserves a collective pat on the back for restraining from a knee jerk 'UPGRADE EVERYWHERE!!' reaction. We've come along way.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Speaking of lackluster relievers, Alexei Ogando (Braves) and Ryan Webb (Rays) were DFA'd today. Free junk is free junk, as long as you've enough storage.

[Flames24Rulz]

Let's just trade for all three of the Yankees relievers. That's a realistic plan right?

 

I wonder what the asking price would be for all three of them. Why the hell not?

[Liam Neeson]

Let's just trade for all three of the Yankees relievers. That's a realistic plan right?

 

I wonder what the asking price would be for all three of them. Why the hell not?

 

Taken from Fangraphs comment section. This is just for Miller.

 

That’s a pretty risky sell to Yankees fans. One of the more dominant relievers in baseball is worth more than a coinflip prospect. Maybe 3 coinflips. Baez, Schwarber & Vogelbach would be enticing possibly. All three have MAJOR red flags but also have good potential. All could easily bust out too. All I’m saying is it should take more than one unproven guy to get the best lefty reliever in baseball (arguably). Three unproven guys sounds better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That person is in for a world of disappointment if Miller is actually traded.

[Clem Fandango]

I love how other teams fans just assume since Schwarber tore his ACL his trade value is effectively that of a low risk high reward prospect. Those people can pound sand.

[MarkR]

I loved reading about how the Cubs consider their major free agent acquisition this offseason is going to be Kyle Schwarber. He's a monster at the plate and this team knows it. He's going nowhere.

[Tryptamine]

I wouldn't mind going after Matt Shoemaker. He's going to be expensive, perhaps more than Teheran , but with his uptick in velocity and the introduction of a splitter that is getting an enormous amount of swing and misses, he could become the 2nd best pitcher on this staff. He's also under control for 4 more years and with the Angels looking to rebuild without trading Trout, this poses a good opportunity.

 

Since May 11th, return from his demotion to AAA:

2.57ERA 2.35FIP 3.08xFIP 9.99K/9 1.08BB/9

[Little Slide Rooter]

I loved reading about how the Cubs consider their major free agent acquisition this offseason is going to be Kyle Schwarber. He's a monster at the plate and this team knows it. He's going nowhere.

 

Makes sense: potential 2017 opening day depth chart:

 

1B: Rizzo, Contreras

2B: Zobrist, LaStella, Baez

SS: Russell, Baez

3B: KB, LaStella, Baez

LF: Schwarber, Soler, KB

CF: Almora, Heyward

RF: Heyward, Soler

C: Contreras, Montero (I guess,) Schwarber

 

P: It won't matter.

[Tryptamine]

I wouldn't mind going after Matt Shoemaker. He's going to be expensive, perhaps more than Teheran , but with his uptick in velocity and the introduction of a splitter that is getting an enormous amount of swing and misses, he could become the 2nd best pitcher on this staff. He's also under control for 4 more years and with the Angels looking to rebuild without trading Trout, this poses a good opportunity.

 

Since May 11th, return from his demotion to AAA:

2.57ERA 2.35FIP 3.08xFIP 9.99K/9 1.08BB/9

 

Consider what you're sayng - this 29 YO who recently got demoted by a 4th place team and has never top 135 innings in the majors can become better than Lester and might be worth more than Teheran because he's had a good two month run with a new offspeed he's throwing nearly 40% of the time. That seems highly optimistic.

 

Jake Arrieta

 

edit: He's also seen an uptick in velocity of 1.3mph on his fastball.

[Tryptamine]

Jake Arrieta

 

edit: He's also seen an uptick in velocity of 1.3mph on his fastball.

 

His velocity increased to 92 MPH, which isn't impressive in today's game from a RHSP - definitely not "possibly better than Lester and worth more than Teheran" good when combined with his lackluster track record and extreme reliance on a splitter this year. The obvious angle from there is that Teheran doesn't throw hard either - but Teheran at 25 with 3 seasons of 180+ innings under his belt owns a 10.33% career whiff rate on his fastball, high end [expletive], to Shoemaker's 6.87%. Throw in the extremely high prospect pedigree of Teheran just because, arrived at 20 after twice ranking 5th on BA's top 100, and it is not even a contest between the two.

 

Arrieta was a bigger, better talent across the board and acquired at 27.

 

He was the ROY in 2014, his numbers and peripherals were quite strong in 2014, yeah 2015 was a disaster, but the increased velocity and increased usage of the splitter has been successful in 2016. That splitter is creating a lot of swing in miss for him. His contact rates are down across the board, first strike rate is up and so is swinging strike rate. Unless you're worried about the health of his arm throwing that many splitters, I don't see the issue. I'd rather spend on him than a kid sporting a mirage of a 2.46ERA thanks to a .209babip and 82.9% strand rate. That 4.03xFIP just isn't all that appealing to me.

[Cubswin11]

Sharma was on the score this morning and said everyone in the minors is available (not shocking). But he said he thinks Torres would be a piece involved in a Doolittle trade and made it sound like that's a reasonable deal. Absolutely no horsefeathering way on that deal. Also said that even though league wide Soler's value is down there are still teams who absolutely love him and his value hasn't dropped for them. Didn't mention any specifics on that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am 100% on board with selling high on Torres as fast as possible, but I would be disappointed if the reward was Doolittle, who I like a fair bit.

[Cubswin11]

I am 100% on board with selling high on Torres as fast as possible, but I would be disappointed if the reward was Doolittle, who I like a fair bit.

I agree, I have no issues moving Torres and would like to sell him between now and the beginning of next year. But if Doolittle is the best you can get, just keep him.

[Tryptamine]

You don't dump a top 25 prospect on a guy whose arm has almost fallen off twice in near career ending fashion.

[Tim]

I am 100% on board with selling high on Torres as fast as possible, but I would be disappointed if the reward was Doolittle, who I like a fair bit.

If Doolittle is not enough and we're very unlikely to get Miller for him, what would be the right target where Torres is the main piece?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Gleyber for Andrew Miller? Sure. Sean Doolittle? Pass.

 

Doolittle is supposed to come cheaper.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am 100% on board with selling high on Torres as fast as possible, but I would be disappointed if the reward was Doolittle, who I like a fair bit.

If Doolittle is not enough and we're very unlikely to get Miller for him, what would be the right target where Torres is the main piece?

 

A hitter or starting pitcher, or someone like Miller who is tip tippy top of the line for relievers. Torres doesn't have to be the *best* player used in such a trade(although that would be ideal), but the idea is that we capitalize on people thinking he's a Top 25 prospect before the high minors likely proves he has no standout features and is likely to not be a first division starter.

[Cubswin11]

I am 100% on board with selling high on Torres as fast as possible, but I would be disappointed if the reward was Doolittle, who I like a fair bit.

If Doolittle is not enough and we're very unlikely to get Miller for him, what would be the right target where Torres is the main piece?

If the market is so out of whack that he's only capable of getting a Sean Doolittle level guy then I hope Theo just holds onto him and lets him continue to develop as a top 15-25 prospect and sends Billy Beane mocking texts about the Russell-Hammel/Samardzija trade everyday.

[Tim]

I mean, I'd be thrilled to trade Torres and Vogelbach for Miller. That gives the Yankees a "high end" piece in Torres and an immediate piece in Vogelbach.

 

I don't think they'd go for that, though.