Talk Arrieta here

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm irrationally angry that Dave Cameron has a Cy Young vote.

 

Pretty sure that could be rationally angry as well.

 

Well, it's not like the average Cy Young voter is Len Kasper.

[David]

I'm irrationally angry that Dave Cameron has a Cy Young vote.

 

since it's irrational, does it help that he's apparently a cancer survivor? i had no idea about that until the other day, but suddenly i felt like a jerk for making fun of him in my head every time i saw him.

[Sammy Sofa]

http://i.giphy.com/l2JdYIhBJQeATlaxi.gif

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-arrieta-has-developed-a-problem/

 

Any Cubs fan could tell you Jake Arrieta just doesn’t seem quite right. This has been the case for a number of weeks, or months, and we’ve touched on it before. It’s funny to think about the hand-wringing over a pitcher sitting on a sub-3 ERA. But, he really has gotten meaningfully worse, and he’s the staff ace of a World Series favorite. Cubs fans don’t have a whole lot of negatives right now. Arrieta might be turning into one, and he had a clunker against Pittsburgh just Monday.

 

Last week, I wrote about the curious disappearance of Arrieta’s unbelievable slider. It hasn’t killed him or anything, with the fastball picking up the slack, but that’s not something Arrieta would’ve wished for. The slider going away is a symptom of something. I can present to you now another symptom of something. And it’s related to the slider’s deterioration — Arrieta’s developing a platoon split. He’s having some trouble with lefties, and, it turns out there are lefties everywhere.

[seanimal]

joe needs to send jake on a spirit quest to find his slider

[David]

cubs related has been talking about that forever and we've kinda known about it here, too. TT just talked about it last night.

[Bull]

Didn't we have some articles last year about how Arrieta uses his slider TOO MUCH, and how people who use the slider that much get hurt?

 

Not saying he's hurt, maybe he just did some research and knows he needs to use it less. Maybe this is better in the long run.

 

/grasping at straws.

[Sammy Sofa]

Long run, shmong run; he's hopefully only here for one more year, so make him pitch until he bleeds.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

can we change the thread title? maybe that's why he hasn't been as good

[Banedon]

can we change the thread title? maybe that's why he hasn't been as good

 

http://gfycat.com/SomeUnfinishedAmbushbug

[Ding Dong Johnson]

that ought to do it

[UMFan83]

4.32 ERA over his last 13 starts. Should we just accept that were not getting God mode Jake and hope he has an extra gear for the playoffs?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4.32 ERA over his last 13 starts. Should we just accept that were not getting God mode Jake and hope he has an extra gear for the playoffs?

 

3.32 in 10 starts since the All-Star break. You're right that 2015 Jake is not here, but the one that is isn't so bad.

[UMFan83]

4.32 ERA over his last 13 starts. Should we just accept that were not getting God mode Jake and hope he has an extra gear for the playoffs?

 

3.32 in 10 starts since the All-Star break. You're right that 2015 Jake is not here, but the one that is isn't so bad.

 

Yeah not bad at all. There was a time where I thought we had to have ace Jake to win it all but I'm far past that point. He can be a solid 2nd or 3rd starter and we have a great chance of winning his playoff starts

[Aaron_Kennelly]

4.32 ERA over his last 13 starts. Should we just accept that were not getting God mode Jake and hope he has an extra gear for the playoffs?

 

3.32 in 10 starts since the All-Star break. You're right that 2015 Jake is not here, but the one that is isn't so bad.

 

Yeah not bad at all. There was a time where I thought we had to have ace Jake to win it all but I'm far past that point. He can be a solid 2nd or 3rd starter and we have a great chance of winning his playoff starts

 

With as good as this team has been with this version of Jake, I don't care too much. It sucks, sure. But, what is he, like 17-6? Of course W-L is a horrible stat, but, in this instance, I think it helps show that Jake's struggles don't really matter too much with how good the whole team is. Throw in the dominance we've seen from Lester and Hendricks and it matters even less.

 

So you hope he does well, knowing it's not a given. And if God-mode Arrieta magically appears, then, well, good luck to every other team.

 

It also helps show that you should appreciate when you see something like what Jake did last year. That kind of season is historic and it looks so easy that you take it for granted.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Apparently Arrieta pitched with the flu tonight. Freaking Grimm.

[David]

http://www.cubsrelated.com/2016/09/update-on-jake-arrietas-slider.html

 

So I've been looking at his slider movement numbers after each start with the hopes of finding a trend. Before we look at the data below, you should be aware of two numbers. First, Arrieta throws sliders with 3.5 inches of movement on average. Second, he might be at his best when throwing sliders with 4 inches of movement. I say he might be best with 4 inches of movement because his dominant run last year correlated with more slider movement, and he started off this year with over 4 inches of movement as well.

 

Now we're ready to look at the game data below. The blue line is Arrieta's in-game slider movement average. The red line is the rolling 3-game average (e.g., first point is the average of starts 1, 2, and 3).

 

 

He showed an absurd amount of slider movement in his first 8 starts of 2016, but then drastically threw flatter sliders in his subsequent 12 starts (starts 9-20). He finally regained his normal looking slider movement in start 20, which was encouraging to me, but his slider once again flattened in starts 23-25. Seemingly, he's been at a tug and war with his slider.

 

...but his most recent 3-game slider movement average has been the highest since early May! In fact, he averaged 4.02 inches of movement just three starts ago. Hmmm. Maybe he's starting to get a feel for the pitch again?

 

Arrieta is at his best when his slider is breaking the hands of lefty batters and slicing away from righties. He threw about 30 sliders per 100 pitches in 2015, but has only thrown 17 sliders per 100 pitches this year. Why he is throwing fewer sliders is a mystery to me. Maybe he's throwing less because he wants to preserve his arm, or maybe because he truly doesn't have a good feel for the pitch. I don't know. Nevertheless, his last 3 starts are encouraging because his slider is looking familiar again. And a familiar Arrieta is devastating for opponents.

[Clem Fandango]

Just now reading that. I see that and I kinda hope he's intentionally holding back like it was suggested he might be doing. Makes no sense to be able to do that for so long last year and into this year, and to then just be like "Nope, not anymore" without any sort of injury concern. It's gotta be some kind of preservation, and I hope if it is he's gonna let loose in the playoffs and turn into God mode Jake again. That would be so very awesome.

 

"It's okay guys, Jake has been hittable this year oh no wait a minute he's pitching Jesus, horsefeathers"

[David]

Gilby wasn't seeing things

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[David]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Sammy Sofa]

What kind of lame ass name for a podcast is that.

[David]

What kind of lame ass name for a podcast is that.

 

It's actually North (and company's) blog.

[Sammy Sofa]

Damn lazy eggheads.

[David]

i actually hadn't read that yet (was still working on the Theo article) when I posted it.

 

what if kyle was right and he really did just put the slider on ice to save his bullets for the playoffs?

[Clem Fandango]

i actually hadn't read that yet (was still working on the Theo article) when I posted it.

 

what if kyle was right and he really did just put the slider on ice to save his bullets for the playoffs?

 

Then I just got a glorious sports boner thinking that even while cannibalizing his best pitch he still has managed a 2.96 ERA and the lowest H/9 in all of baseball while still inducing a ton of weak contact.

 

If this is the case I also suspect we'll get one of the best contract walk years in pitching history next season.

[seanimal]

what if kyle was right and he really did just put the slider on ice to save his bullets for the playoffs?

 

i like that it's not totally clear what you find more remarkable: whether jake would put his deadliest pitch on ice for a couple of months or that kyle was right to think that out loud