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Posted

I think Bernsteins article today is our best shot at keeping Dex. Offer him a very large 2 year deal. He says 2/40. Personally, I doubt that'd get him, but 2/50 would. Even if he's seeing a 5/80 offer.....I think he'd take 2/50 and head back to FA as a 33 year old in order to play with these guys for longer. If 4/64 is his market, then 2/40 IS in the ballpark.

 

At any rate, the extra playoff revenue money can come into play here, if necessary. But this really should happen.

Posted
I think Bernsteins article today is our best shot at keeping Dex. Offer him a very large 2 year deal. He says 2/40. Personally, I doubt that'd get him, but 2/50 would. Even if he's seeing a 5/80 offer.....I think he'd take 2/50 and head back to FA as a 33 year old in order to play with these guys for longer. If 4/64 is his market, then 2/40 IS in the ballpark.

 

At any rate, the extra playoff revenue money can come into play here, if necessary. But this really should happen.

 

But is 2 more years, even at that age, for $12M a year really that big of a risk or a bad thing compared to 2/40? I'm pretty sure I'd rather 4/64 than 2/40. Esp since you can backload further on 4 years.

 

That's why I never understand these let's go shorter term on a way inflated AAV ideas.

Posted
I think Bernsteins article today is our best shot at keeping Dex. Offer him a very large 2 year deal. He says 2/40. Personally, I doubt that'd get him, but 2/50 would. Even if he's seeing a 5/80 offer.....I think he'd take 2/50 and head back to FA as a 33 year old in order to play with these guys for longer. If 4/64 is his market, then 2/40 IS in the ballpark.

 

At any rate, the extra playoff revenue money can come into play here, if necessary. But this really should happen.

 

But is 2 more years, even at that age, for $12M a year really that big of a risk or a bad thing compared to 2/40? I'm pretty sure I'd rather 4/64 than 2/40. Esp since you can backload further on 4 years.

 

That's why I never understand these let's go shorter term on a way inflated AAV ideas.

 

I kind of agree. If we DO give him 2 years and he gets hurt and misses a ton of time in one of them, or Heywards a season, its close to impossible to extract value out of the deal.

 

But it seems like the FO only offered him 2 years last time, so maybe they are hung up on it. I just want to find the avenue that keeps him here, whichever way it is.

Posted
I think Bernsteins article today is our best shot at keeping Dex. Offer him a very large 2 year deal. He says 2/40. Personally, I doubt that'd get him, but 2/50 would. Even if he's seeing a 5/80 offer.....I think he'd take 2/50 and head back to FA as a 33 year old in order to play with these guys for longer. If 4/64 is his market, then 2/40 IS in the ballpark.

 

At any rate, the extra playoff revenue money can come into play here, if necessary. But this really should happen.

 

But is 2 more years, even at that age, for $12M a year really that big of a risk or a bad thing compared to 2/40? I'm pretty sure I'd rather 4/64 than 2/40. Esp since you can backload further on 4 years.

 

That's why I never understand these let's go shorter term on a way inflated AAV ideas.

 

Wouldn't you rather have a shorter (or majorly front loaded) deal knowing all your young stars have enormous paydays coming in 3-5 years? Why would you backload a contract?

Posted
I think Bernsteins article today is our best shot at keeping Dex. Offer him a very large 2 year deal. He says 2/40. Personally, I doubt that'd get him, but 2/50 would. Even if he's seeing a 5/80 offer.....I think he'd take 2/50 and head back to FA as a 33 year old in order to play with these guys for longer. If 4/64 is his market, then 2/40 IS in the ballpark.

 

At any rate, the extra playoff revenue money can come into play here, if necessary. But this really should happen.

 

But is 2 more years, even at that age, for $12M a year really that big of a risk or a bad thing compared to 2/40? I'm pretty sure I'd rather 4/64 than 2/40. Esp since you can backload further on 4 years.

 

That's why I never understand these let's go shorter term on a way inflated AAV ideas.

 

Wouldn't you rather have a shorter (or majorly front loaded) deal knowing all your young stars have enormous paydays coming in 3-5 years? Why would you backload a contract?

 

It's almost like you never read these boards.

Posted
Whats our possible Luxury Tax outlook? Wouldn't that be one reason not backload a deal? Must be nearing oue last years of not paying it, right?

 

We can't know definitively because the new CBA could change the luxury tax threshold or even eliminate it entirely. The tax currently goes into effect at 189 million and taxes amounts over 189M at 17.5% the first time you exceed it, with that percentage growing to 30%, 40%, and 50% with each successive season over the threshold. Right now if you include arbitration estimates the Cubs payroll is just over 140 million for a full roster.

 

With that in mind, I think the luxury tax is a decent proxy for what the team can probably spend. It'd represent a 10% or so increase over last year's actual payroll, and while I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it go beyond that, I can understand there might be some hesitancy to do so if all of a sudden there's more teeth added to the tax in the new CBA.

Posted
Whats our possible Luxury Tax outlook? Wouldn't that be one reason not backload a deal? Must be nearing oue last years of not paying it, right?

 

Aside from the obvious benefits to backloading that we've discussed here a ton (and you'd backload the extensions on the young guys too), we'd be on new TV money by the end of a 4 year deal signed this year.

Posted
Whats our possible Luxury Tax outlook? Wouldn't that be one reason not backload a deal? Must be nearing oue last years of not paying it, right?

 

Aside from the obvious benefits to backloading that we've discussed here a ton (and you'd backload the extensions on the young guys too), we'd be on new TV money by the end of a 4 year deal signed this year.

TT may have a point regarding uncertainty, but if there is enough certainty, timing is a basic tax concept that should absolutely be a consideration.

 

TV deal, irrelevant.

Posted
According to a report from Jim Bowden, the Cardinals are “going to make an all-out play for center fielder Dexter Fowler.” The Cardinals would like to “steal from the Cubs a year after” both Jason Heyward and John Lackey left St. Louis to play in Chicago.

 

So they want to sign him to...get revenge on us?

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/11/report-cardinals-make-play-dexter-fowler.php

Posted
There is mutual interest in Fowler returning to the Cubs. Jed Hoyer said that the front office will stay in contact with Fowler’s agent throughout the process. Fowler is believed to be looking for a three- to four-year contract for around $14 million per year.

 

3 years at 14 per? Sign me up.

 

Not that that will do it, realistically.

Posted
There is mutual interest in Fowler returning to the Cubs. Jed Hoyer said that the front office will stay in contact with Fowler’s agent throughout the process. Fowler is believed to be looking for a three- to four-year contract for around $14 million per year.

 

3 years at 14 per? Sign me up.

 

Not that that will do it, realistically.

 

If he can be had for 3/42 and we don't do it then I'm going to be a bit disappointed.

Community Moderator
Posted
There is mutual interest in Fowler returning to the Cubs. Jed Hoyer said that the front office will stay in contact with Fowler’s agent throughout the process. Fowler is believed to be looking for a three- to four-year contract for around $14 million per year.

 

3 years at 14 per? Sign me up.

 

Not that that will do it, realistically.

 

If he can be had for 3/42 and we don't do it then I'm going to be a bit disappointed.

 

Yeah, if he is looking for that, I'd give him 4 years/$60M today to stop him from even looking at another team. I think that 4th year will be something that the Cubs may not want to do and also the thing that sends Dexter somewhere else.

Posted
According to a report from Jim Bowden, the Cardinals are “going to make an all-out play for center fielder Dexter Fowler.” The Cardinals would like to “steal from the Cubs a year after” both Jason Heyward and John Lackey left St. Louis to play in Chicago.

 

So they want to sign him to...get revenge on us?

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/11/report-cardinals-make-play-dexter-fowler.php

 

Bowden is a moron, but Mozeliak certainly isn't. If he goes after Dex, it'll be because he's useful to them and have nothing to do with emotions or revenge. It's hard to fathom guys like Bowden got to run front offices as recently as the last couple years.

Posted
According to a report from Jim Bowden, the Cardinals are “going to make an all-out play for center fielder Dexter Fowler.” The Cardinals would like to “steal from the Cubs a year after” both Jason Heyward and John Lackey left St. Louis to play in Chicago.

 

So they want to sign him to...get revenge on us?

 

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/11/report-cardinals-make-play-dexter-fowler.php

 

Bowden is a moron, but Mozeliak certainly isn't. If he goes after Dex, it'll be because he's useful to them and have nothing to do with emotions or revenge. It's hard to fathom guys like Bowden got to run front offices as recently as the last couple years.

 

It would be a lot of fun if Dexter took a lesser contract to stay with the Cubs.

Posted
Yeah, keep this thing going. Time to be dick-swinging Theo. Pay that man his money. Let's go Round 2 with the whole crew.

 

Resign Fowler

Force Otani to be posted and win the bidding

Sign Jansen

 

Offseason over

2017 season over

PTR forever over

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