BP top 101

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Man, I hate to root against our own prospects. And I am sure that Kellogg's a real nice guy. But, it's going to be hard for me to not hope that he fails spectacularly.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Man, I hate to root against our own prospects. And I am sure that Kellogg's a real nice guy. But, it's going to be hard for me to not hope that he fails spectacularly.

 

Feel free, it doesn't actually change anything. Like - it couldn't possibly have less effect on the outcomes. I'd still rather take my chances with this guy and that kind of prospect than the Jeffrey Baezs of the prospect world (which also has zero effect on how things turn out).

 

I was actually just joking. I'm not that spiteful. And, anyway, if he did fail, I know that it will just be another name that pops up to take his place and get repeated ad nauseum.

[Tedward]

I wonder who becomes the 2016 Contreras in the system - a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect.

 

D.J. Wilson gets my vote.

[davell]

I wonder who becomes the 2016 Contreras in the system - a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect.

 

D.J. Wilson gets my vote.

 

He was too high on my list for me to go there, but yeah.....I'm expecting him to become very well known very soon. The reports sound great on him.

[weis21]

I think DJ Wilson breaks out this year. He strikes me as this generation's Lenny Dykstra but really checks his inner-sociopath at the door while maintaining true grit. Hard to do that concurrently but I think he's cracked the code. Excited to see how he does - he's got elite gamer written all over him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Give me Hannemann as a prospect who might pull a Contreras, although I've always liked him in spite of the results.

 

Or if you want to go way off the reservation, talk Martarano out of football and maybe he takes a leap.

[craig]

i predict: almora is back in the top 50 by the time midseason lists roll around

contreras into the top 50 of all lists

EJM off all lists

 

On EJM, I agree it's very probable he's off. Not necessarily because he won't be an excellent prospect, but because of his circumstances.

 

He's presumably going to start in XST, and get lots of Cubs-Way training etc. So he likely will not be playing any box-score games until Eugene's season starts in late June.

 

There just won't be hardly any new information or stats or scouting looks on him for rankers to consider, unless he starts in full-season or gets called up their quickly. So other guys will pass him on media lists.

 

Wouldn't really reflect either way on his long-term. But if you start at 97, and have no visible opportunity to move up or prove yourself, some other guys will elevate past you on the list. (Within the Cubs own system alone, they've got plenty of guys like Eloy, Candelario, Underwood, DelaCruz, Cease, Steele, and Caratini who could jump their way into the top-100 with good first half. So if EJM is standing still, in the minds of the rankers, he should be off the list.)

[craig]

Contreras was a really unusual jump. Don't expect anything quite like that. But, certainly he'd been in discussion and in back-of-top-30's before, so for people like us it's not like he came out of totally nowhere. We all certainly knew about him, and that he had some tools.

 

Personally I'd look for more modest and less-extreme jumps.

 

Caratini has been in top-30's. If his hitting and power jumped some, and some favorable defensive reports started to come in, catchers can get into lists pretty easily.

 

If you want a real long-shot, how about Skulina? Nobody talks about him. But he's pretty fast, has a pretty good slider, and inconsistently has some very good outings. His numbers last year were K-per-inning. He's the kind of guy with the size and raw stuff, where if he both stayed healthy all year, and improved his delivery so that his control improved and consistency appeared out of thin air, you might have a very good prospect.

 

Pierce and Zagunis are kind of in that landscape, too. Non-young college, injury-interference, wildly inconsistent, forgotten men. But sometimes full health, a delivery adjustment, some success/confidence, resulting increase in consistency/command, resulting decrease in HR-allowed, and a yesterday's-news guy can suddenly be back on the map.

 

Dewees is another. As a 2nd-round pick, it wouldn't be Contreras-esque if he emerged. But what if he showed up in Myrtle, locked in, and mid-year was hitting .320 with 10-HR and 20 stolen bases? Sure, that wouldn't be Contreras, but he's not exactly a guy who many posters have really loved or discussed much.

 

I know these aren't as extreme a the "not-in-org-top-50-jumping-into-mlb-top-50" jump of Contreras. But I'll take what jumps we can get!

[craig]

...I'll take a wait and see approach on EJM. Its basically Badler vs Kiley and Law as to who's right on him. And I tend to side with the guys who saw him after he defected over the guy who hasn't.(Badler) Remember, he was offered around 10 mill by the Yankees, but pushed his eligibility into the next period, thinking they'd get the Giants and Dodgers in a bidding war. The Giants signed Fox for less and didn't have it in their budget to still give EJM 10. The Dodgers dropped their bid accordingly, then fired their entire IFA department. Which is when we grabbed him, as he had had enough and wanted to be signed. Kiley and Law both thought we stole him.

 

Wait and see is correct, and hopefully Law and Kiley are right, we stole him, and he's going to be a fine player.

 

I do admit some doubts about the "Yankees offered $10M" story. Strains credulity that a guy was offered $10M and ended up in a position where he accepted $2.6 (Giants) and $3.0 Cubs offers.

[toonsterwu]

I wonder who becomes the 2016 Contreras in the system - a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect.

 

I love Brad Markey, but as davell said, he's not really completely off-the-radar, or at least I don't think he should be. He's definitely in my top 30. So, how about Jeffrey Baez.

 

I can see that, but is Baez off the radar? He's one of the more toolsy guys in the entire system coming off a solid 2nd half.

 

It's really hard for fans to figure out a guy who emerges like Contreras, because well, if you could see it coming, it'd be hard to compare that to Contreras. I mean, Markey got some mentions this year.

 

If I had to take a stab at some guys (fully acknowledging that these guys could also flame out hard ... heck, some may not make it with roster crunches) -

 

Rashad Crawford - strikeouts are still a bit high for his skillset, but he was relatively solid from June on.

 

Sorta want to put Matt Rose into the mix as an option, but hard for me to justify putting a recent draft pick in the mix.

 

From the pen files -

 

Ryan McNeil - Consistency still isn't there, but he quietly had a good year out of the pen.

David Garner - I'm not sure I should care that much about pen arms in a topic like this, but he had a fairly solid season.

 

Totally off the board -

 

Trey Martin - Going totally off board here, but long touted as an intriguing guy, he never got untracked ... but he did walk a lot more in the 2nd half and seemed to show some offensive development. Heck, if I was a betting man, I'd bet that he was cut.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Contreras wasn't a top 30 guy last year by most accounts.

 

Ugh you're right...That's so dramatic. I thought at least Sickels had him in there. Who goes from consensus not-a-system-top-30 to top 60 or potentially better overall prospect at 23, 7 years into a pro career? That's odd, but so is ranking prospects instead of talking about them.

 

Geovany Soto?

[imb]

I lol'd:

 

2. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins It may be an exercise in hyperbole to refer to our no. 2 prospect as a “post-hype sleeper” (especially since he’s been our no. 1 prospect the last two years), but in an industry always on the lookout for the next new hotness, Buxton qualifies as old news.

 

Can't wait for the wind to blow again this year!

 

that wind will probably injure him

[ConstableRabbit]

Geovany Soto?

[toonsterwu]

To be clear, I'm not sure I necessarily "buy" Jeffrey Baez long term, but I could see a breakout-ish type year in A+. He's got some of the best raw power left in the system and has a good enough arm that, if he hits, he can probably stay in RF until someone better comes along. Going to Myrtle Beach could help the power production (unless I'm mistaken, I think MB is a better park for power than SB). It all comes down to whether or not he can tap into that power, and namely, whether or not he can stay disciplined in his approach. He made huge strides in his approach last year, and took off. Now, can he maintain that? Not sure. I can see him breakout, akin to Alcantara in A+, or I can see him go, say, the Tony Thomas route and sort of just float there, enough to go up a level but never to gain much traction.

 

I am sort of trying to talk myself into buying the idea of a Rashad Crawford breakout. A young athlete that was raw may take some time to adjust. Here's hoping at least.

 

@craig - I'm still not sold on Tyler Skulina as a starter long term, but he does seem to have gone under-the-radar in terms of discussion this offseason. Still like him more as a power pen arm to come on and blow guys away, though.

 

Is Zagunis really forgotten? I think people are on him, but he has some limitations. The power, if it develops, is never going to be great, and he has a little bit of an awkward swing at times, so he may never hit for a high average. I'm on record as liking him more than I want to, but I get why people would be concerned.

[RammyFanny]

Geovany Soto?

[ConstableRabbit]

Thanks, I was getting concerned.

[Tim]

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2011/01/bacubsprospects.php

 

Nope nope nope, sorry folks

I have no idea what the point of that article was supposed to be.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

He thinks people are quoting Geovany Soto as a rebuttal to his point.

[davell]

He thinks people are quoting Geovany Soto as a rebuttal to his point.

 

It did bring back the name of Robinson Chirinos......

[craig]

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2011/01/bacubsprospects.php

 

Nope nope nope, sorry folks

 

That is pretty depressing collection of top-10 lists.

[davell]

What is it supposed to be?

 

I wasn't around when it started, but guys have just posted or quoted "Geovany Soto" for a long time. I always figured it was because he was so great that one year.

Edited January 27, 2016 by davell

[David]

What is it supposed to be?

 

Geovany Soto.

[David]

What is it supposed to be?

 

I wasn't around when it started, but guys have just posted or quoted "Geovany Soto" for a long time. I always figured it was because he was so great that one year.

 

you've been around since 2005 so you were def around when it started

 

maybe not as much but yeah

[davell]

What is it supposed to be?

 

I wasn't around when it started, but guys have just posted or quoted "Geovany Soto" for a long time. I always figured it was because he was so great that one year.

 

you've been around since 2005 so you were def around when it started

 

maybe not as much but yeah

 

I joined back while I was on another site, but didn't pay attention(or remember at least) much until I left the other place and started posting here. I didn't remember even joining way back then.

[RammyFanny]

We once had like 2-3 straight pages of it until some douche interrupted the streak with actual useful insight.