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wolf stansson

By wolf stansson,
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bukie All-Star

bukie

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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So there's an interesting scenario in play in the Group G finale between Belgium/England. If Brazil wins their group and Germany finishes 2nd in theirs, the winner of group G would play a Brazil/Germany winner in the quarters, whereas the runner up of group G would play a potentially more desirable Mexico/Switzerland winner. However, Belgium and England are tied on points, goals scored and goal differential, so if they draw their game, the winner of the group would be the team with fewer yellow cards, which potentially gives an incentive for both teams to try to out-yellow the other to finish runner up if the game is tied late (currently Belgium has 3 yellows and England 2).
wvcbxl ACL Cubs

wvcbxl

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
So there's an interesting scenario in play in the Group G finale between Belgium/England. If Brazil wins their group and Germany finishes 2nd in theirs, the winner of group G would play a Brazil/Germany winner in the quarters, whereas the runner up of group G would play a potentially more desirable Mexico/Switzerland winner. However, Belgium and England are tied on points, goals scored and goal differential, so if they draw their game, the winner of the group would be the team with fewer yellow cards, which potentially gives an incentive for both teams to try to out-yellow the other to finish runner up if the game is tied late (currently Belgium has 3 yellows and England 2).

 

Our analysts will be discussing this endlessly until Thursday evening. :roll:

stitchface First Round Pick

stitchface

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

GROUP F

 

- Mexico need a point vs. Sweden to go through and top the group. They are definitely through with a defeat if Germany fail to win.

- Sweden are guaranteed to qualify if they win or better Germany's result. If they beat Mexico and Germany fail to win, Sweden will top the group.

- Germany must win by two or more goals or better Sweden's result to guarantee qualifying.

- If both Germany and Sweden draw, the team in the higher-scoring game will finish second. If both draws are the same scoreline, Germany finish second on head-to-head.

- South Korea must beat Germany and hope Sweden lose to Mexico to have a chance of qualifying.

 

THREE-WAY TIE FOR FIRST AND SECOND

- If Sweden and Germany win, they will finish level on six points with Mexico, and it will first come down to goal difference.

- Sweden are guaranteed to qualify in all scenarios.

- Germany are guaranteed to qualify if they win by two goals.

- Mexico can only qualify if both games are won by one goal, and Mexico's game is either higher scoring or both the same score one-goal margin apart from 1-0

- If Sweden win by two or more goals, they are through, and that would mean Germany are guaranteed to qualify with any win (Mexico out).

- If Germany win by two or more goals they are through, with Sweden through with any win (Mexico out).

- If both Germany and Sweden win 1-0, the three teams would have identical records and it would go to head-to-head mini-league, and this would see Germany and Sweden through on goals scored. Mexico would be out by virtue of scoring one fewer goal in games between the three countries. First and second would be decided on Fair Play and at present Sweden's score is -3 and Germany's -5, so Sweden would finish top. Obviously this could change on the final matchday.

- If both Germany and Sweden win 2-1, then Sweden would win the group on head-to-head goals scored (they would have three goals in games between the three countries to Germany and Mexico's two). Second and third would be decided by Fair Play, and at present Mexico's score is -2 and Germany's -5 (Jerome Boateng's red card worth -3 the difference). Each yellow card is worth -1 so Mexico would be through unless they have several players booked or someone sent off compared to Germany.

- If both Germany and Sweden win 3-2 (or any higher one-goal identical margin of victory), then Sweden would win the group with Mexico second and Germany third on head-to-head mini-league goals scored.

- The only other way Mexico can go through, at the expense of Germany, if is both games are won by one goal, but Mexico's defeat against Sweden is a higher-scoring game.

- If Sweden win by one goal, and Germany win by one goal but in a higher-scoring game, Germany win the group with Sweden in second and Mexico out

 

THREE-WAY TIE FOR SECOND

- If South Korea win and Sweden lose there will be a three-way tie for second on three points for Germany, Sweden and South Korea. It will first come down to goal difference.

- If South Korea beat Germany by two goals, they are guaranteed to finish second

- If South Korea beat Germany 1-0 and Sweden lose 1-0 to Mexico, it will come down to Fair Play between Germany and Sweden with South Korea out on head-to-head goals scored. At present Sweden's score is -3 and Germany's -5, so Sweden best placed for second though that will change.

- If both games are won by the same one-goal margin other than 1-0, then Germany finish second on head-to-head goals scored.

- If South Korea beat Germany by a higher-scoring one-goal margin than Sweden lose to Mexico by, then South Korea would finish second on direct head-to-head against Germany with Sweden bottom.

- If Sweden lose to Mexico by a higher-scoring one-goal margin than South Korea beat Germany, then Sweden would finish second on goals scored.

- If Sweden lose by more than one goal, they cannot qualify, and South Korea would therefore finish second with any victory

Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
We’re 15 minutes away from Spain being stuck on the hard side of the knockout bracket.

 

you were saying?

 

I was saying? Lol, this game is nuts

bukie All-Star

bukie

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
We’re 15 minutes away from Spain being stuck on the hard side of the knockout bracket.

 

you were saying?

Do you ever know what you post about?

Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
We’re 15 minutes away from Spain being stuck on the hard side of the knockout bracket.

 

you were saying?

Do you ever know what you post about?

 

It was 1-1 when he posted that. Morocco scored like 30 seconds later to go up 2-1, which is when I posted.

soccer10k Cooperstown

soccer10k

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Wow, Iran almost came back to win that. What a game.

 

Yeah, that was crazy. Portugal almost went from winning their group at the start of injury time to out of the tournament less than 10 minutes later.

 

I was so focused on who would finish first that when Iran scored, I forgot that they would have advanced with a win and with Spain tying, would have won the group.

stitchface First Round Pick

stitchface

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Wow, Iran almost came back to win that. What a game.

 

 

It's a shame - how beautiful would it have been for Portugal to go out after a Ronaldo penalty miss?

 

Why is no one declaring harry kane as the greatest thing ever after his hat trick?

Derwood GOAT

Derwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Heartbreaker for Iceland. They were fun to watch

 

 

they were abysmally dull to watch. good riddance to 10 in the box defense.

 

They had a lot of good chances in that match *shrug*

stitchface First Round Pick

stitchface

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Heartbreaker for Iceland. They were fun to watch

 

 

they were abysmally dull to watch. good riddance to 10 in the box defense.

 

They had a lot of good chances in that match *shrug*

 

yea, they had to come out and try today. Their first game was pathetic.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

In case any one is wondering, if Sweden and Germany both win 1-0, pretty sure Mexico gets bounced based on Goals Scored between the 3 teams games against each other.

 

GD, Goals Scored (overall), points H2H, GD H2H would all be even.

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