soccer soccer soccer

[wolf stansson]

How does that work in joint-hosted world cups like ‘26?

[wvcbxl]

How does that work in joint-hosted world cups like ‘26?

 

The number of teams will expand from 32 to 48 in 2026 - I'm sure FIFA will find a lucrative solution. :wink:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How does that work in joint-hosted world cups like ‘26?

 

It looks like the only other shared-host world cup was 2002, and they put both Japan and South Korea in Pot 1. That was before they made it a pure FIFA rank for all pots, so Pot 2 was all UEFA, Pot 3 was CONMEBOL + AFC, and Pot 4 CONCACAF + CAF

[UMFan83]

WC Draw simulator:

 

https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/

 

First one I got was Qatar, USA, Tunisia, Wales. Almost a perfect draw but I’d happily take this

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Looking at the pots and rules a bit more, there's a couple key inflection points that I can see. The most obvious is getting drawn with an AFC team(63% chance), especially if you can do so in Pot 1 or 3(50%). The other is if you can get drawn with one of the weak CAF teams in Pot 3, Tunisia or Morocco(25%). Neither of those 2 had to beat anyone of any quality to qualify, and aside from Tunisia slipping past underachieving Nigeria 1-0 it didn't happen in AFCON either. That would make the shoot the moon outcome a group like Qatar, Morocco, Wales.

 

The other key is quite frankly, avoiding Senegal in Pot 3. The other 7 are either the above AFC and CAF teams or they're Euro teams which makes Qatar or a truly weak Pot 4 draw like Saudi Arabia more likely. Senegal is the best Pot 3 team, doesn't keep you from 2 additional Euro teams and makes it very likely you're not getting an AFC team, so it's the land mine.

 

On a similar note, it's very funny to see that those things above are the key to Canada avoiding some really insane groups of death. Running the simulator a few times I see groups like Spain/Croatia/Senegal/Canada or Brazil/Switzerland/Poland/Canada, which would be absolute bloodbaths.

[bukie]

Looking at the pots and rules a bit more, there's a couple key inflection points that I can see. The most obvious is getting drawn with an AFC team(63% chance), especially if you can do so in Pot 1 or 3(50%). The other is if you can get drawn with one of the weak CAF teams in Pot 3, Tunisia or Morocco(25%). Neither of those 2 had to beat anyone of any quality to qualify, and aside from Tunisia slipping past underachieving Nigeria 1-0 it didn't happen in AFCON either. That would make the shoot the moon outcome a group like Qatar, Morocco, Wales.

 

The other key is quite frankly, avoiding Senegal in Pot 3. The other 7 are either the above AFC and CAF teams or they're Euro teams which makes Qatar or a truly weak Pot 4 draw like Saudi Arabia more likely. Senegal is the best Pot 3 team, doesn't keep you from 2 additional Euro teams and makes it very likely you're not getting an AFC team, so it's the land mine.

 

On a similar note, it's very funny to see that those things above are the key to Canada avoiding some really insane groups of death. Running the simulator a few times I see groups like Spain/Croatia/Senegal/Canada or Brazil/Switzerland/Poland/Canada, which would be absolute bloodbaths.

 

Technically, if we're looking to shoot the moon ,Scotland or Ukraine steals that last UEFA bid.

 

EDIT: Also, on the flip side, Canada is pretty much screwed no matter what their draw is. Best case scenario is they get Group A with a weak CAF team in pot 3. Worst case scenario is like Brazil-Germany-Senegal.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

EDIT: Also, on the flip side, Canada is pretty much screwed no matter what their draw is. Best case scenario is they get Group A with a weak CAF team in pot 3. Worst case scenario is like Brazil-Germany-Senegal.

 

They do have a better than 50% chance of getting one of the AFC teams or the weak CAF teams at least. But yeah, aside from pulling Qatar's group you aren't going to be jazzed no matter what since they're gonna have like Argentina/Switzerland or Spain/Uruguay at best as your starting point.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

WC Draw simulator:

 

https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/

 

First one I got was Qatar, USA, Tunisia, Wales. Almost a perfect draw but I’d happily take this

Mine was Qatar Serbia Ghana!

[Mark Priors Calves]

Brazil, Senegal, Wales. Oof

[wolf stansson]

I got Argentina, Tunisia, and Scotland, which would be fun as hell.

[bukie]

For me, I want to get greedy, and think that the US could advance out of any group, so give me the toughest Pot 1 team in our group so we wouldn't see them in knockout play until the finals. Then put us in group B, so the first knockout game opponent would be from the Qatar group.

 

Something like Brazil, South Korea, Ghana, with a group A of Qatar, Switzerland, Tunisia and CONCACAF/OFC.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Someone did 100k simulations and these were the odds of every opponent:

 

[bukie]

Someone did 100k simulations and these were the odds of every opponent:

 

Well that's encouraging...No thanks to Brazil-Serbia-Wales.

[wolf stansson]

Someone did 100k simulations and these were the odds of every opponent:

 

All I can see from this is how likely Brazil, Serbia, & Ghana is. No thanks.

[wolf stansson]

get this talking towel off of my screen. what is this, south park? get to the draw.

[Rex Buckingham]

3 minutes in, and the WC draw show is bonkers

[sneakypower]

who asked for clippy in the metaverse

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[bukie]

Give me Ghana, they're by far the worst team in this World Cup if New Zealand doesn't get in.

[bukie]

Here's another simulator where you can pick the ping pong balls yourself, so you can see how the draw could play out line by line: https://draw.inker.one/#/wc/gs

[bukie]

Another thing I did not know is that every group is required to have at least one European team. So that Qatar-Tunisia-Ecuador dream is over.

 

That also means if the US does get in a group with Qatar/Brazil/Argentina and doesn't get Poland/Serbia from pot 3, they are guaranteed the UEFA playoff from pot 4.

[bukie]

[wolf stansson]

Stringer bell out here dressed like a goth mortician.

[wolf stansson]

I am not powerful, but, I too, would very much like this.

[bukie]

I'm watching a British live commentary on the draw and they are practically begging for the US out of pot 2.