General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread

[jersey cubs fan]

What do you mean by "much more valuable" in the AL?

please do not restart this conversation

[Cubswin11]

 

 

To repeat what has been said - he'ss 22 years old with less than 200 PA in the majors. Also, he's playing on a team that can allow him time to grow and he's playing in a league that uses the DH. It's way too early to make predictions on what kind of career he will have, but he certainly looks like he can be a productive ML hitter for quite a few years.

There’s plenty of numbers by him and historical comps to have a pretty good idea what he will be, not certain, but a good estimate. He will more than likely be a productive hitter, I’ve never said he won’t. He just won’t be all that valuable and it’s nonsense how he’s talked about as a future MVP/superstar. He’s probably going to end up being a player with similar value to Schwarbs (they’ll get there differently) as a 2-3 win guy most with maybe a peak year or two over 4 but not much over.

 

And I have pointed out many times that Schwarber would be much more valuable in the AL. I still think it's way too early to guess/estimate what a 22 year old will turn into when he's had less than 200 PA in the ML.

Schwarber would be less valuable in the AL/as a DH only because he adds positive value on defense and you’d be taking that away. It’s too early to be certain what Eloy will be but the minor league numbers give us a good idea, he’s going to do something like hit dongs, not walk a lot, K at an above average rate and probably have his BA move around from low-mid to high .200s depending on BABIP luck all while playing shitty defense and dealing with nagging injuries.

[squally1313]

What do you mean by "much more valuable" in the AL?

please do not restart this conversation

Fair. If he just stated that normally, I'd be more likely to just be like 'well that's wrong, but whatever'. But it's the whole 'as I've said many times' thing that bugs me.

[Sammy Sofa]

Schwarber would be less valuable in the AL/as a DH only because he adds positive value on defense and you’d be taking that away.

 

Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on?

[squally1313]

Schwarber would be less valuable in the AL/as a DH only because he adds positive value on defense and you’d be taking that away.

 

Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on?

 

Whatever you do, don't look at the defensive ratings of DHs that are built into their WAR calculations.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Schwarber would be less valuable in the AL/as a DH only because he adds positive value on defense and you’d be taking that away.

 

Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on?

 

Schwarber has over 2600 innings (~285 full games) in the OF with a UZR/150 of +8.8. He has multiple seasons of 90+ games in the OF with at least an 8.8 UZR. Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value.

[Sammy Sofa]

Schwarber would be less valuable in the AL/as a DH only because he adds positive value on defense and you’d be taking that away.

 

Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on?

 

Schwarber has over 2600 innings (~285 full games) in the OF with a UZR/150 of +8.8. He has multiple seasons of 90+ games in the OF with at least an 8.8 UZR. Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value.

 

I'll fully cop to just doing the (possibly) dumb thing and only going to BR and Fangraphs' defensive WAR/cumulative defensive value numbers. Where is the disconnect?

Edited June 19, 2019 by Sammy Sofa

[jersey cubs fan]

Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value.

[Cubswin11]

Schwarber would be less valuable in the AL/as a DH only because he adds positive value on defense and you’d be taking that away.

 

Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on?

He’s not great, and not as good as last year, but I believe he is a slight positive out there (especially with the arm). Also, like Squally said you get a pretty big ding for being a DH in the valuations (a negative number much larger than Schwarber at his worst). And Eloy is that bad a defender that the blanket hit on defense the DH takes may be low, he’s already the 4th worst OF’er in baseball by DRS, 10th worst by Fangraphs defensive WAR, 8th worst in UZR/150 at -15.7, 6th worst by UZR at -4.9 and they rate his arm at a -3.6 which is 2nd worst in the league for OF’ers. These are all min 180 PAs, since he’s at like 188.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Cubswin11

[ConstableRabbit]

 

Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on?

 

Schwarber has over 2600 innings (~285 full games) in the OF with a UZR/150 of +8.8. He has multiple seasons of 90+ games in the OF with at least an 8.8 UZR. Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value.

 

I'll fully cop to just doing the (possibly) dumb thing and only going to BR and Fangraphs' defensive WAR/cumulative defensive value numbers. Where is the disconnect?

The values are weighted against all positions, not just the position the player plays. Even the best 1B in baseball can have negative defensive fWAR.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on?

 

Schwarber has over 2600 innings (~285 full games) in the OF with a UZR/150 of +8.8. He has multiple seasons of 90+ games in the OF with at least an 8.8 UZR. Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value.

 

I'll fully cop to just doing the (possibly) dumb thing and only going to BR and Fangraphs' defensive WAR/cumulative defensive value numbers. Where is the disconnect?

 

The Defense value you see in the Fangraphs dashboard isn't adjusted for position, so you could use that to compare the relative contributions of Schwarber to say, Baez, if you really wanted to. UZR is going to be a bit more practical for most purposes, and it's further down the page: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

 

Also I misspoke, it's +8.3 career, got the 8.8 from 2017 lodged in my brain.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

Schwarber has over 2600 innings (~285 full games) in the OF with a UZR/150 of +8.8. He has multiple seasons of 90+ games in the OF with at least an 8.8 UZR. Even if you take an oaf tax of half a win per year he's still adding value.

 

I'll fully cop to just doing the (possibly) dumb thing and only going to BR and Fangraphs' defensive WAR/cumulative defensive value numbers. Where is the disconnect?

 

The Defense value you see in the Fangraphs dashboard isn't adjusted for position, so you could use that to compare the relative contributions of Schwarber to say, Baez, if you really wanted to. UZR is going to be a bit more practical for most purposes, and it's further down the page: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

 

Also I misspoke, it's +8.3 career, got the 8.8 from 2017 lodged in my brain.

 

So what is BR doing with theirs? The whole not adjusted for position thing seems really dumb.

[ConstableRabbit]

 

I'll fully cop to just doing the (possibly) dumb thing and only going to BR and Fangraphs' defensive WAR/cumulative defensive value numbers. Where is the disconnect?

 

The Defense value you see in the Fangraphs dashboard isn't adjusted for position, so you could use that to compare the relative contributions of Schwarber to say, Baez, if you really wanted to. UZR is going to be a bit more practical for most purposes, and it's further down the page: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

 

Also I misspoke, it's +8.3 career, got the 8.8 from 2017 lodged in my brain.

 

So what is BR doing with theirs? The whole not adjusted for position thing seems really dumb.

It's really to better compare players across positions. There's not a great way to do so otherwise. If you wanted to know who the best LFs were, you could still sort on position.

 

Of 33 players with at least 200 innings in left field, Eloy is 31st in defensive fWAR.

 

Just as the scouting reports said that Eloy would hit a ton, they said that he'd be awful in the field. If we're to believe in his bat, we have to believe in the shittiness of his fielding.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm not disagreeing that Eloy is garbage defensively; I'm the one who was suggesting that it makes the most sense to move him to 1B/DH (and ideally much more of the latter) as soon Abreu is gone. The defensive discussion is about Schwarber's value there; I'm murky (shocker) about the disparity between UZR and other cumulative defensive metrics, and appreciate the different explanations so far.

 

I guess my main takeaway is my lizard meatball brain can't wrap my head around the idea that Schwarber would arguably be less valuable for the Cubs if they had a DH slot available for him.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Sammy Sofa

[Cubswin11]

I have no real opinion on Schwarber's defense, but UZR's creator always tabbed 3 seasons as a significant sample and most of the other metrics are less high. The team could use his cheap LH power and patience, he's young, good dude, cheap, LH, cheap...

 

----

Schwarber would be less valuable in the AL/as a DH only because he adds positive value on defense and you’d be taking that away. It’s too early to be certain what Eloy will be but the minor league numbers give us a good idea, he’s going to do something like hit dongs, not walk a lot, K at an above average rate and probably have his BA move around from low-mid to high .200s depending on BABIP luck all while playing horsefeathers defense and dealing with nagging injuries.

 

That is an interesting take on how Eloy's MiL numbers will translate. If you're basing this off of Schwarber's ML performance, Eloy doesn't have to deal with the L v L matchup (which btw reflected in Schwarber's MiL stats behind the glitz) that cripples many LHHs, never struck out much in the minors relative to the league averages, hit .312 throughout all levels, and all while always being young for the leagues. I think you're selling that bat short, probably by alot.

I very well could be under selling it. But even if I am, how good a bat needs to be as a DH only/terrible defender to be crazy valuable (like even more than 2-3 wins valuable) is pretty damn high and few guys get there. That’s my over reaching point. I don’t think he can hit on the JD Martinez levels to be a superstar value player at the DH position/negative defender.

[ConstableRabbit]

I'm not disagreeing that Eloy is garbage defensively; I'm the one who was suggesting that it makes the most sense to move him to 1B/DH (and ideally much more of the latter) as soon Abreu is gone. The defensive discussion is about Schwarber's value there; I'm murky (shocker) about the disparity between UZR and other cumulative defensive metrics, and appreciate the different explanations so far.

 

I guess my main takeaway is my lizard meatball brain can't wrap my head around the idea that Schwarber would arguably be less valuable for the Cubs if they had a DH slot available for him.

Read this for more: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

 

Some would argue that the DH adjustment is too harsh; still, it's a looooong way away from where Schwarber is.

[Sammy Sofa]

Now this is a nice baseball discussion.

[entbird79]

I very well could be under selling it. But even if I am, how good a bat needs to be as a DH only/terrible defender to be crazy valuable (like even more than 2-3 wins valuable) is pretty damn high and few guys get there. That’s my over reaching point. I don’t think he can hit on the JD Martinez levels to be a superstar value player at the DH position/negative defender.

 

Oh, you're almost definitely under selling it and not by a small amount.

 

Okay Steve Stone

[Cubswin11]

I very well could be under selling it. But even if I am, how good a bat needs to be as a DH only/terrible defender to be crazy valuable (like even more than 2-3 wins valuable) is pretty damn high and few guys get there. That’s my over reaching point. I don’t think he can hit on the JD Martinez levels to be a superstar value player at the DH position/negative defender.

 

Oh, you're almost definitely under selling it and not by a small amount. No clue what it translate to in WAR but he looks like a guy who will hit for high average and top of the league kind of power without striking out crazy amounts once settled in. The only hole in his offensive game is his walk rates being low, and he's shown the potential to reach 10% in the minors. If there's ML ready MiL players with JD Martinez potential as a DH, Eloy should be on the [very] short list

Yeah that’s fine and cool, it’s still a crazy bar he has to reach (given his limitations) to be overly valuable with not much margin for error. For example in 2017, Nelson Cruz hit .288/.379/.549 with 39 HRs, he was only worth 3.9 WAR, same year Corey Dickerson hit .282/.325/.490 with almost 30 HRs and was worth 2.6 WAR. You have to REALLY hit as a DH to be worth a lot and even if you do REALLY hit you still most likely aren’t worth that much.

[squally1313]

 

Oh, you're almost definitely under selling it and not by a small amount.

 

Okay Steve Stone

 

Ha. I was in the "he's definitely a 2-3 WAR guy who might get to 4+ in a couple prime years" camp up until he kept tearing it up last year. .337/.384/.577 with a 15(!!!!)% K rate in AA/AAA from a guy with his size and pedigree at age 21 is the good stuff. Now I think that Juan Gonzalez-y kind of player might be more his floor than ceiling

 

LO-the horsefeathers -L

[Cubswin11]

 

Okay Steve Stone

 

Ha. I was in the "he's definitely a 2-3 WAR guy who might get to 4+ in a couple prime years" camp up until he kept tearing it up last year. .337/.384/.577 with a 15(!!!!)% K rate in AA/AAA from a guy with his size and pedigree at age 21 is the good stuff. Now I think that Juan Gonzalez-y kind of player might be more his floor than ceiling

 

LO-the horsefeathers -L

I mean for as crazy as that statement is, even if he is that. Juan Gonzalez only has 3 seasons of 4 WAR or more, he had 7 sub 2 WAR seasons.

[squally1313]

Wait, is it a crazy comp based on Gonzalez's name recognition or something else? I think it's a way more apt comp in size, pedigree, and skills, especially offense, than Schwarber

I mean, I understand that in hindsight, or probably even at the time, Juan Gonzalez was a very flawed player who accumulated a bunch of counting stats and not much else (and was a particularly terrible MVP selection). But a floor of 35 WAR and 434 home runs is just insane.

[squally1313]

But a floor of 35 WAR and 434 home runs is just insane.

 

Who in their right mind would make *that* specific a comp? The comp is way more general - Gonzalez was a big tall COF, top 5 prospect in baseball, and had the high average/meh walks/big power/bad defense thing going on

 

If you would have just said he reminds you of a Juan Gonzalez type player, sure, whatever. But I don't know what that means in the context of 'ceiling' and 'floor'.

[Bertz]

I very well could be under selling it. But even if I am, how good a bat needs to be as a DH only/terrible defender to be crazy valuable (like even more than 2-3 wins valuable) is pretty damn high and few guys get there. That’s my over reaching point. I don’t think he can hit on the JD Martinez levels to be a superstar value player at the DH position/negative defender.

 

Oh, you're almost definitely under selling it and not by a small amount. No clue what it translate to in WAR but he looks like a guy who will hit for high average and top of the league kind of power without striking out crazy amounts once settled in. The only hole in his offensive game is his walk rates being low, and he's shown the potential to reach 10% in the minors. If there's ML ready MiL players with JD Martinez potential as a DH, Eloy should be on the [very] short list

Yeah that’s fine and cool, it’s still a crazy bar he has to reach (given his limitations) to be overly valuable with not much margin for error. For example in 2017, Nelson Cruz hit .288/.379/.549 with 39 HRs, he was only worth 3.9 WAR, same year Corey Dickerson hit .282/.325/.490 with almost 30 HRs and was worth 2.6 WAR. You have to REALLY hit as a DH to be worth a lot and even if you do REALLY hit you still most likely aren’t worth that much.

 

Adding onto this, the last horsefeathers glove corner outfielder to be a real MVP consideration is probably Jose Bautista? Like you have to be an absolutely incredible hitter to be *THAT* valuable when your defensive value is so limited.

[Bertz]

Adding onto this, the last horsefeathers glove corner outfielder to be a real MVP consideration is probably Jose Bautista? Like you have to be an absolutely incredible hitter to be *THAT* valuable when your defensive value is so limited.

 

I feel like I'm the only one actually looking at Eloy's performances in pro ball right now rather than going with some generalization of. He's been that!

 

And? Schwarber was an incredible hitter in the minors too, and has been merely pretty good as a major leaguer. Simply put that's the likely outcome for all but the most tippity top of minor league hitters. Hitting well in the minors portends success, but there's practically nothing you can do in the minors that makes the >150 OPS+ it takes to be a star with Eloy's defense a median outcome. Hell Vlad Jr, probably the best minor league hitter of the past 10-15 years, never projected to crack the five win mark coming into this year.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/fangraphs-projections-forecast-elite-numbers-vladimir-guerrero-jr/sn-amp/

 

And while Eloy was a very good minor league hitter, he was a tier or three below Vladito.