Minor League Musings

[CubsWin]

For me, it's just fun to dream on all these 18-22 year-old prospects. The Cubs are in a fun position to have so many of them right now. But accurately predicting what any of them will be in 2-3 years (which is what goes into thinking you're right about how to rank them now) is way above my pay grade. If you can do it with this group of teenagers, more power to ya.

[CubsWin]

That Caissie quote is from an article published over a year ago (Sept 3, 2020) before he was traded to the Cubs and had any professional training. If you're trying to support an argument that his defense is terrible, you may want to find better evidence than that. He may very well wind up playing LF, 1B or DHing, but this has little to do with whether or not one can say with any certainty that Triantos is a top 5 or top 6 prospect in the Cubs org (or whatever you're saying he is now).

 

We don't know how much a 19-year-old OFer will improve his defense over the next 2-3 years. And that's my point. There's so much that is unproven about most of these teenagers at the lower levels that a variety of opinions can be supported, including yours.

 

If you'd like to believe that your opinions are the right opinions, that's okay with me.

 

A few nitpicks:

 

- Just ftr: Caissie was already receiving professional training at the time having both signed with an org and being put on their 60 last summer.

- Since he's already playing LF, split time between there and DH for Myrtle Beach, I would say it's *likely* he ends up at one of those bat heavy positions. Obviously this puts more pressure on the offense to translate, and he

- I think it's fair to say there's a good amount of certainty already that Triantos is a better prospect than Caissie. I don't know how that fits into the rankings so much, but yeah I'd say the younger player higher up the defensive spectrum with a more polished offensive approach should be seen as a better prospect

 

Of course we don't *know* how much Caissie's defense will improve, but realistically how many players move up the defensive spectrum? That's a huge part of the game in piling up these SS prospects in the first place. It's not so that they all can end up ML SS prospects, but because the range of positive outcomes includes stars from every position on the field

You can't nitpick something I'm not saying. But if you feel the need for some reason, go right ahead.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Brennen didn't even make Law's honorable mention list for Prospect of the Year (20 players listed) but he ranked Triantos 2nd behind OF Jay Allen of the Reds for top 2021 draft pick performance

[CubinNY]

To say Triantos is a positionless less prospect is laughable.

[CubsWin]

To say Triantos is a positionless less prospect is laughable.

I agree, even though I didn't exactly say that (it was positionless infielder). It was tongue-in-cheek. Another poster had called a teenage prospect a positionless outfielder, so I called Triantos a positionless infielder to make a point. They're both absurd criticisms. How can someone be a positionless outfielder or infielder? Simply because he hasn't locked down a specific spot as a teenager? Triantos played 3B, SS and 2B. Does that make him positionless? Of course not. The other guy played RF and some LF. That doesn't make him positionless either.

[muntjack]

Where is Pinango falling in there for you guys? I think I'm quite a bit higher on him than most are. He should spend a good portion of next year at Tennessee and doesn't turn 20 until May. Especially when you consider the lost year in 2020 that seems very impressive. He doesn't K (11.4% at A+) and looks like he'll hit for average (.289 with .321 BABIP). .093 ISO isn't spectacular but any significant improvement next season moves him right near the top in my opinion.

[Bertz]

Where is Pinango falling in there for you guys? I think I'm quite a bit higher on him than most are. He should spend a good portion of next year at Tennessee and doesn't turn 20 until May. Especially when you consider the lost year in 2020 that seems very impressive. He doesn't K (11.4% at A+) and looks like he'll hit for average (.289 with .321 BABIP). .093 ISO isn't spectacular but any significant improvement next season moves him right near the top in my opinion.

 

Pinango's tough. I'm generally one to pound the table for guys who succeed at a good age relative to their league, but his defensive ceiling is probably as an adequate corner outfielder and he hits WAY too much on the ground to get to any of his power.

 

He's probably something like Maikel Franco but has enough shot at being Yordan Alvarez that I'm certainly watching him closely. I have him at #23 on the list I'm working on, but think you could argue him like 10 spots higher if you wanted.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Where is Pinango falling in there for you guys? I think I'm quite a bit higher on him than most are. He should spend a good portion of next year at Tennessee and doesn't turn 20 until May. Especially when you consider the lost year in 2020 that seems very impressive. He doesn't K (11.4% at A+) and looks like he'll hit for average (.289 with .321 BABIP). .093 ISO isn't spectacular but any significant improvement next season moves him right near the top in my opinion.

 

Pinango's tough. I'm generally one to pound the table for guys who succeed at a good age relative to their league, but his defensive ceiling is probably as an adequate corner outfielder and he hits WAY too much on the ground to get to any of his power.

 

He's probably something like Maikel Franco but has enough shot at being Yordan Alvarez that I'm certainly watching him closely. I have him at #23 on the list I'm working on, but think you could argue him like 10 spots higher if you wanted.

 

I have Piñango in the teens because of the ARL. I'm not as concerned about the groundball/power because I think the organization will continue to work on his swing and valued him enough to promote him to high-A at 19.

[UK]

Where is Pinango falling in there for you guys? I think I'm quite a bit higher on him than most are. He should spend a good portion of next year at Tennessee and doesn't turn 20 until May. Especially when you consider the lost year in 2020 that seems very impressive. He doesn't K (11.4% at A+) and looks like he'll hit for average (.289 with .321 BABIP). .093 ISO isn't spectacular but any significant improvement next season moves him right near the top in my opinion.

 

Pinango's tough. I'm generally one to pound the table for guys who succeed at a good age relative to their league, but his defensive ceiling is probably as an adequate corner outfielder and he hits WAY too much on the ground to get to any of his power.

 

He's probably something like Maikel Franco but has enough shot at being Yordan Alvarez that I'm certainly watching him closely. I have him at #23 on the list I'm working on, but think you could argue him like 10 spots higher if you wanted.

 

I have Piñango in the teens because of the ARL. I'm not as concerned about the groundball/power because I think the organization will continue to work on his swing and valued him enough to promote him to high-A at 19.

 

Agreed. Right now, he's in the 15-20 range.

[sneakypower]

Ed Howard who over his last 108 PAs hit .303/.346/.434 against full season pitchers

idk only mustering a .780 OPS in your absolute best possible subset on the strength of a .412 babip is not the strong endorsement it seems

[sneakypower]

“[...] I just need to power shag” Caissie said.

ah the HardcoreCubFan mantra..

[CubsWin]

Ed Howard who over his last 108 PAs hit .303/.346/.434 against full season pitchers

idk only mustering a .780 OPS in your absolute best possible subset on the strength of a .412 babip is not the strong endorsement it seems

Agreed. That statement was to make a point that you can pick apart or build up any of these teenage prospects at this point, but that we simply don't know enough about any of them to make a definitive argument about how good they are. The whole Triantos breakdown was tongue-in-cheek.

[CubsWin]

I mean, since we're still talking about that whole non-convo: Was calling Triantos positionless really like...effective parody? The joke doesn't work within the context it exists!

We're not still talking about it. Some people simply didn't want to read the whole, big, long pointless thing. I don't blame them.

[Bertz]

I think this is my Top 30.  It ended up getting away from me and becoming a massive wall of text, so here's the list and then the list with a blurb on each guy in spoilers.

 

Tier 1

1. Brennen Davis

 

Tier 1.5

2. Jordan Wicks

3. Owen Caissie

 

Tier 2

4. Cristian Hernandez

5. Reggie Preciado

6. Kevin Alcantara

7. Nelly Velazquez

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong

9. Miguel Amaya

10. Brailyn Marquez

11. James Triantos

12. DJ Herz

 

Tier 3

13. Kevin Made

14. Caleb Kilian

15. Ryan Jensen

16. Ed Howard

17. Chris Morel

18. Alexander Canario

19. Kohl Franklin

20. Cole Roederer

21. Jordan Nwogu

22. Christian Franklin

23. Yohendrick Pinango

 

Tier 4

24. Anderson Espinoza

25. Chase Strumpf

26. Max Bain

27. Alexander Vizcaino

28. Daniel Palencia

29. Bryce Ball

30. Riley Thompson

 

I broke guys into tiers, and frankly within tiers I don't think there's much difference. I ordered them on my preference but like if you think Vizcaino should be ahead of Espinoza I'm not gonna fight you on it. Overall I'm really happy with the system.  Ideally it would have 2-3 more top 100 guys, but the depth is just silly. I could have gone 45 deep.  And there is top line talent, it's just far away, I'm not worried about having 4-5 guys on next year's Top 100, I'm just curious about which 4-5 it'll be.

 

 

Tier 1

1. Brennen Davis - Duh

 

Tier 1.5

2. Jordan Wicks - After Brennen, probably the only other guy the Cubs have that combines close proximity, legit upside, and a good chance of reaching it

3. Owen Caissie - For an 18 year old, simply reaching full season ball is a big deal.  Actually excelling there is massive. He probably won't do much glove wise, but he should HIT

 

Tier 2

4. Cristian Hernandez - TBH I don't typically expend much consideration this high on guys who haven't made it stateside yet.  But Cristian is probably the best rated IFA we've ever had, so he warrants that extra consideration

5. Reggie Preciado &

6. Kevin Alcantara - These guys have similar profiles except one's an OFer and one's an IFer.  I give Reggie the slight nod because he's a switch hitter, but it's a razor thin margin

7. Nelly Velazquez - I think this is the biggest limb I'm going out on?  But what he did at AA was incredible.  If he had a full season at that level, he'd be our clear cut #2.  Tools have been there for years, now the production is showing up

8. Pete Crow Armstrong - If he'd not gotten hurt he'd probably be #2 on this list, but then again if he'd not gotten hurt we couldn't have gotten him

9. Miguel Amaya - The industry already seemed to be softening on him coming into the year, and now he's lost nearly an entire year of development.  But he's a catcher with production and pedigree in the upper minors, so there's still real value there

10. Brailyn Marquez - I imagine this year killed the chances of him ending up a starter, but he's going to be one hell of a reliever

11. James Triantos - I'm probably too caught up in the Alex Bregman comps, but I could see him jumping ten spots next year

12. DJ Herz - The numbers are incredible, the scouting reports good but not quite as glowing.  Lots of reliever risk, but also a guy who could be Blake Snell with a less punchable face

 

Tier 3

13. Kevin Made - The bar is incredibly low for 18 year old MIFs in full season ball.  Made held his own early, and then was a hitting machine the last ~third of the season

14. Caleb Kilian - Didn't show much post trade but for the year crossed 100 innings with 8.5 strikeouts for every walk.  Doing that while also not giving up a ton of dongs is incredibly rare

15. Ryan Jensen - The stuff is there, the production followed in the second half.  Gun to my head I say reliever but he's got a legit shot at starting and excelling in the role

16. Ed Howard - Hugely disappointing season.  For someone a year older or with less pedigree it would be disqualifying

17. Chris Morel - I don't love that he seemed to be able to hit or walk but not both at once.  But he has power, plays everywhere but catcher, and it sounds like he has Javy-esque smarts and instincts.  He's probably a bench player, but like your favorite bench player

18. Alexander Canario - He fell off hard after his hot start with the org, but appeared to be making progress on his contact ability late.  I imagine he is making some swing changes?  But he has some prodigious power, so there is margin for error with his other skills

19. Kohl Franklin - Kohl got a lot of hype over quarantine, but hasn't had a chance to show it this season.  I really hope he ends up in the AFL

20. Cole Roederer - It really sucks that he lost two years of development.  He kind of needs to crush it next year, otherwise I think he's destined to be a tweener

21. Jordan Nwogu &

22. Christian Franklin - Both guys are going to live and die based on whether they can keep the swing and miss in check without sacrificing too much elsewhere.  I love having several guys in this mold, it makes it that much more likely that we hit big on one

23. Yohendrick Pinango - He can hit for average, but can he do anything else?  I worry about the power with how often he puts it on the ground, and the defense is already merely adequate.  I love the production at his age but I worry a lot about him ending up as Maikel Franco

 

Tier 4

24. Anderson Espinoza - Probably a reliever, but what he did after coming over was a revelation.  The minor league options are ticking off but feels like he has a ~20% chance of still being a fun starter, and if he doesn't he's a safe fallback as a late inning reliever (assuming his arm doesn't explode again)

25. Chase Strumpf - From a guy who's not super tooled up I need more production.  He still has ARL on his side a bit, so I could still see a Jed Gyorko type outcome

26. Max Bain - After coming off the DL he was a changed man.  I think Tenn next year will quickly show us if he's a starter or a reliever long term, but I do think he's an MLBer

27. Alexander Vizcaino - Similar to Espinoza, but with a little funner pure stuff but even longer odds of ending up a SP

28. Daniel Palencia - Far away, but holding that velocity for 4-5 innings at a time is super exciting

29. Bryce Ball - Was basically the same guy post trade as be was pre-trade, which is disappointing.  But if he could lift the ball more while keeping everything else constant he could get pretty fun pretty fast

30. Riley Thompson - Was the guy I was highest on relative to consensus this time two years ago, but two years is quite a long time.  This is a total hedge on my part

 

[Tim]

Great stuff.

 

I think I'd probably have Wicks & Caissie mixed in with the rest of the tier 2 guys. I've probably got Velazquez back in Tier 3.

 

I've probably got Pinango higher in tier 3 and possibly up into tier 2. For guys with that level of contact at that age in A+, there's hope that some swing path changes and time in the weight room can get the power to at least playable levels.

[Bertz]

Great stuff.

 

I think I'd probably have Wicks & Caissie mixed in with the rest of the tier 2 guys. I've probably got Velazquez back in Tier 3.

 

I've probably got Pinango higher in tier 3 and possibly up into tier 2. For guys with that level of contact at that age in A+, there's hope that some swing path changes and time in the weight room can get the power to at least playable levels.

 

Yeah for Caissie and Wicks, I like them more than the rest of the tier two guys, but it's admittedly mostly subjective. So I gave them their own mini-tier. But like I think having say Alcantara at #2 is totally reasonable.

 

Nelly is definitely me stretching, but I liked him back in 2019 and LOVE what he did at AA. I'm buying in. Probably prematurely, but I'm buying in.

 

Pinango's got the scary GB% but ARL on his side. If he comes out and cuts his GB% by a third he's a guy I'll latch onto pretty quick a la Nelly Velazquez, but right now I'm keeping him lower than a lot of the other OFers we have.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA's Top 10 ACL Prospects is 30% Cubs: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-arizona-complex-league-top-10-prospects/

 

3. Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs

Age: 19. B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-4. Wt: 190. Drafted: HS—Burlington, Ont., 2020 (2nd round/Padres).

 

Drafted by the Padres in 2020 and traded to the Cubs that offseason as part of the return for Yu Darvish, Caissie made a loud statement as one of the best hitters in Arizona before a late-August promotion to Low-A Myrtle Beach.

 

Caissie stands out for his approach at the plate, with feel to hit, a compact bat path and ability to use the whole field. He can hit breaking pitches and projects to have plus power.

 

”The way he can go oppo with damage is super impressive for his young age,” Cubs manager Lance Rymel said, “and he has a great baseball mind. He loves the game. No one will work harder.”

 

Caissie is an average runner with an average arm, projecting to be able to handle either corner outfield position.

 

4. Kevin Alcantara, OF, Cubs

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-6. Wt: 188. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2018 (Yankees).

 

Alcantara began the season in the Florida Complex League as a member of the Yankees organization but joined the Cubs at the trade deadline when Chicago traded Anthony Rizzo to New York. The lean, lanky Alcantara joined the Cubs and quickly posted an outstanding 1.024 OPS in 34 games.

 

Alcantara projects to be a total package of tools and performance, with the ceiling of an all-star-caliber center fielder. His swing is balanced and works well despite his long limbs, and he should add more power to what already grades as plus when he fills out his frame. With instincts and confidence in the field Alcantara could become a plus defender with a plus arm, giving him a good chance to stay in the middle of the outfield.

 

“He’s young and he’s got to keep learning and playing the game,” said Cubs manager Lance Rymel. “You see the tools that he has, and everything will iron itself out when he starts playing more.”

 

6. James Triantos, SS/2B, Cubs

Age: 18. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 195. Drafted: HS—Vienna, Va., 2021 (2nd round).

 

The Cubs selected Triantos in the second round and went over slot to sign him for $2.1 million. The Virginia high school product looked overmatched in his first couple of ACL games but quickly adjusted to the speed of the game, showing off his plus bat with a strong swing capable of driving balls to all fields with average to above-average power. Triantos saved the best for last, posting a 1.199 OPS in September with a two-homer game in the season finale.

 

Scouts observed that defensively the game still got too fast for Triantos, questioning whether he will be better suited to second base or third base rather than shortstop, but he’s athletic enough to improve as his career progresses. He showed average speed in his first pro season. Triantos’ makeup is solid, and he projects as a prospect who will play above his tools as he progresses through the system.

 

No pitchers made their top 10. It's disappointing they're reducing this piece from Top 20s to Top 10s because I'd guess Reggie Preciado would've made the top 20.

[Bertz]

Traditionally I believe the AZL and MWL were the hardest lists to get on simply for the logistics of how many teams there were. I know realignment is going to change that for the MWL but getting 3 guys in the top 10 for the ACL list is still big I'd think.

[Tryptamine]

Irrationally high on Triantos. I could be convinced to put him at #2, but he's definitely safely inside the top 10 and the only reason to keep him out of the top 5 is the limited looks so far.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

DJ Herz is the only Cub in their Low-A East top 10 prospects, coming in at 10: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-low-a-east-top-10-prospects/

 

10. D.J. Herz, LHP, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: R-L. HT: 6-2. WT: 175. Drafted: HS—Fayetteville, N.C., 2019 (8th round).

 

Herz pitched just 10.1 innings in his pro debut in 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic canceled the 2020 season, but he didn’t look rusty in his first full season.

 

The 20-year-old lefthander excelled with Myrtle Beach before a promotion to High-A on Sept. 2. He used his three-pitch mix to overmatch Low-A hitters while striking out 14.4 per nine innings. Herz uses a crossfire delivery that gives his fastball deception, and he sits in the low-to-mid 90s, with one manager calling the pitch electric.

 

Herz’s changeup is his best secondary offering, and it’s a pitch that earns plus grades. He has worked to improve his curveball, turning the pitch into an average offering.

 

The main area of emphasis for Herz is throwing strikes more consistently and pitching deeper into games. He threw five or more innings just four times in 17 Low-A starts, while walking 5.2 per nine innings.

[CubsWin]

Alcantara projects to be a total package of tools and performance, with the ceiling of an all-star-caliber center fielder. His swing is balanced and works well despite his long limbs, and he should add more power to what already grades as plus when he fills out his frame. With instincts and confidence in the field Alcantara could become a plus defender with a plus arm, giving him a good chance to stay in the middle of the outfield.

Wow. IF that happens, he's a steal for a couple months of Rizzo.

[Bertz]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brennen Davis came in 6th on BA's Top 10 Prospects in the AA South: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-double-a-south-top-10-prospects/

 

6. Brennen Davis, OF, Tennessee (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 175. Drafted: HS—Chandler, Ariz., 2018 (2nd round).

 

After abbreviated seasons in 2018 and 2019 and the lost pandemic year of 2020, Davis gave the Cubs a long look this season. He played at three levels and reached Triple-A in September. Hit by pitch that broke his nose in spring training, Davis got a late start at High-A before moving quickly to Tennessee and finishing with a few weeks at Triple-A.

 

The highlight of Davis’ season was hitting two home runs in the Futures Game in Coors Field, including a 428-foot poke to center field that secured him MVP honors.

 

Davis was one of a handful of 21-year-old regulars in Double-A South and did damage when he connected, but he struggled to pick up spin, which led to a strikeout rate near 31%. Davis shows good barrel control and an all-fields approach when he’s going well, and his raw power is plus.

 

Davis plays center field now but profiles more as a corner outfielder for most scouts with average speed and arm strength. Better swing decisions will complete the package.

[Bertz]

I assume this means no one from South Bend made it into that league's list? It's not surprising, I could maybe see one Jensen, Velazquez, or Canario making the very back of a 20 but none of them are cracking a league top 10.