Minor League Musings

[mul21]

20 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

@TomtheBombadil

Not sure if you had caught this yet.

What are the rules around the minor league portion of the Rule 5?  Do those guys ever go back to their original team?

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, mul21 said:

What are the rules around the minor league portion of the Rule 5?  Do those guys ever go back to their original team?

Players can be added to the Triple-A reserve team for a specific amount of money. I believe it works just like the MLB version - if they do not stick at Triple-A the entire season they are returned. But it's a lot easier to keep a guy stashed in Triple-A.

[Regular Show]

Quote

There is also a Minor League phase of the Rule 5 Draft. Anyone not protected on a big league or Triple-A roster is eligible, with the cost of selection $24,000. Players selected in this phase of the Rule 5 Draft aren’t subject to any roster restrictions with their new organizations.

 

It's very easy to protect players from the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Guys, if the big league team actually values a prospect they wouldn't leave them unprotected (for the minor-league phase)...

We selected LHP Connor Menez out of the Giants organization in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft back in 2021. I was not excited at the time because I knew it wouldn't amount to much. He pitched a grand total of 1 IP for the Cubs (that's it). 

There is a huge difference between the major league and minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. 

[craig]

Yeah, getting onto the AAA roster is super easy. 

1. Most interesting minor-leaguers aren't even draft eligible yet
2. 40 guys on the big-league roster
3. triple-A roster is reasonably big as well, so if there's a guy you like at all, who's been around long enough to be draft eligible, teams can put them there.  

So, the fact that Gallardo wasn't even placed on the AAA roster to protect him is kinda interesting.  May reflect that his rehab hasn't gone great thus far?  Or would it be too soon to have any clue whether it will be fully successful or not?

[Bertz]

With the org's 3B depth chart taking a huge hit yesterday, I'd like to see the Cole Mathis (when healthy) and Jonny Long at 3B experiments get a lot more forceful.

Long especially, he got some decent reviews in the AFL and the bat has an outside shot at being 2025 relevant.

[Tim]

53 minutes ago, Bertz said:

With the org's 3B depth chart taking a huge hit yesterday, I'd like to see the Cole Mathis (when healthy) and Jonny Long at 3B experiments get a lot more forceful.

Long especially, he got some decent reviews in the AFL and the bat has an outside shot at being 2025 relevant.

I'd like to second this post as something I was curious about, as well. If Long could even be playable at 3B, he's a much more interesting prospect.

[JBears79]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

With the org's 3B depth chart taking a huge hit yesterday, I'd like to see the Cole Mathis (when healthy) and Jonny Long at 3B experiments get a lot more forceful.

Long especially, he got some decent reviews in the AFL and the bat has an outside shot at being 2025 relevant.

Isnt Mathis more of a 1B/DH type though? Does he have the arm for 3rd? Is he going to be healthy to start the year after TJS? Havent really seen much about his recovery.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Isnt Mathis more of a 1B/DH type though? Does he have the arm for 3rd? Is he going to be healthy to start the year after TJS? Havent really seen much about his recovery.

He was announced as a 3B when the pick was put in on draft night.  So they're presumably going to at least give it a shot.

He had Tommy John pre-draft, but I don't think we know exactly when.  I imagine he won't play a position with such strenuous throwing demands until mid-year, but I think we've seen position players back out there at 100% inside of a year.  Corey Seager had TJ in May of 2018 and started at shortstop opening day 2019.

[JBears79]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

He was announced as a 3B when the pick was put in on draft night.  So they're presumably going to at least give it a shot.

He had Tommy John pre-draft, but I don't think we know exactly when.  I imagine he won't play a position with such strenuous throwing demands until mid-year, but I think we've seen position players back out there at 100% inside of a year.  Corey Seager had TJ in May of 2018 and started at shortstop opening day 2019.

True. Harper came back pretty quickly too. Mathis is a really interesting prospect if he can be a 1b/3b/DH prospect. Same with Long. Hoping for a Mathis breakout similar to Long this year,

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

True. Harper came back pretty quickly too. Mathis is a really interesting prospect if he can be a 1b/3b/DH prospect. Same with Long. Hoping for a Mathis breakout similar to Long this year,

Honestly it kind of feels like Long was the prototype for "what if we let our algorithm make a pick?" and it worked out so swimmingly they went hog-wild on it this year.  Mathis is definitely a data darling like Long.

[Bertz]

This guy built out an app for doing Statcast sliders for AAA

[Bertz]

And he followed up with Shaw

 

[Bertz]

Good god

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Now that's interesting 

[Bertz]

Cubs fans are bad about overrating finesse guys because of Maddux and Hendricks, but Connor Noland being the team's ~11th starter is still a good sign of a healthy roster.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-americas-2025-scout-survey-evaluators-fear-games-direction-amid-doom-and-gloom-offseason/

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/baseball-americas-2025-scout-survey-evaluators-fear-games-direction-amid-doom-and-gloom-offseason/

I uhhhh, don't think these lists tell the story the scouts want them to tell.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I uhhhh, don't think these lists tell the story the scouts want them to tell.

I don't think they tell any story really.  There's teams from all over the standings there.  I guess if you want a narrative it's that there's more than one way to skin a cat.

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I don't think they tell any story really.  There's teams from all over the standings there.  I guess if you want a narrative it's that there's more than one way to skin a cat.

If that's the case doesn't that undercut any doomerism about teams moving away from traditional scouts?

I also don't agree that both lists look comparable.  That second one generally has more success in the realm of young talent.  Now it can be hard to disentangle scouting and PD, but still it raises my eyebrows and IMO not in the way intended.

[Bertz]

Kind of shocking that Iowa ranked that high.  I think it has normally been hitter friendly but not particularly so.  Especially with some of those PCL monstrosities like Oklahoma City.

Generally the takeaway from these numbers when released is you have to further mentally adjust wRC+ numbers you see.  Fangraphs adjusts wRC+ in the minors by league, but not by park.  So give someone like Jefferson Rojas a bit of a boost and give all the Iowa hitters a bit of a pump of the brakes.

 

[craig]

Quote

 

Runs: 107 Park Factor ranks 3rd for hitters

Home Runs: 111 Park Factor ranks 4th for hittes

wOBA: 105 Park Factor ranks 3rd for hitters

 

Tennessee had park-friendly numbers, too.  Relative to the league, at least. 

[Bertz]

A good amount of Cubs love in here

 

[JBears79]

I'm really excited to see how Fernando Cruz does stateside after an offseason of work. I'm hoping one of him or Valdez can really breakout as a top 100 guy. 

[Bertz]

I've noticed in most of the early pictures out of camp the players wearing these Catapult vests.  Sounds like it's tracking/monitoring equipment.  Do we have a position player answer to like a Rapsodo now?

[mul21]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I've noticed in most of the early pictures out of camp the players wearing these Catapult vests.  Sounds like it's tracking/monitoring equipment.  Do we have a position player answer to like a Rapsodo now?

It's the same thing all the soccer players wear.  Measures all the biometrics and keeps guys from getting overexerted.