Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-9-17-24/

Matt Shaw was the hottest prospect in the minors last week:

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1. Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs 

Team: Triple-A Iowa (International)
Age: 22

Why He’s Here: .462/.500/1.000 (12-for-26), 7 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBIs, 2 BB, 6 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Louisville’s pitching staff was likely mighty happy to see Shaw depart after last week’s series. Shaw strung together five multi-hit efforts including a four-hit game in the series finale. Shaw homered in three different contests and reached base in all six games. He is now hitting .296/.382/.565 with seven home runs over 29 Triple-A games. The top hitting prospect in the Cubs system looks like a likely contributor for the big league team next season and has a great opportunity to break camp with the club. (GP) 

 

[Bertz]

Sharma with a great one this AM:

Talks Christian Franklin, Cristian Hernandez, Alfonsin Rosario, Brett Bateman, and Johnny Long.  Here's Long's writeup:

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Jonathon Long, 1B

Long has only 200 plate appearances at Double A, but his 189 wRC+ would lead the Southern League if he qualified. Long also has more walks (35) than strikeouts (33) at the level and a solid .189 ISO, which is among the better power bats in a league that’s seen offense really dip this season.

Long gets to his power with 90th percentile bat speed and enters the zone short and above the ball. That bodes well for a contact and power combination hitter. The Cubs hope that with continued development, Long could be the type of hitter who fits into the five- or six-hole in a big-league lineup.

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Sharma with a great one this AM:

Talks Christian Franklin, Cristian Hernandez, Alfonsin Rosario, Brett Bateman, and Johnny Long.  Here's Long's writeup:

Ugh I recently cancelled my sub. Can you post all of them please?

[muntjack]

Alcantara has 143 PAs at Iowa this year and has posted a 124 wRC+

Every stop in which he's had at least that many PAs:

2022 (A)  124 wRC+

2023 (A+) 124 wRC+

2024 (AA) 124 wRC+

2024 (AAA) 124 wRC+

 

[JunkyardWalrus]

3 hours ago, muntjack said:

Alcantara has 143 PAs at Iowa this year and has posted a 124 wRC+

Every stop in which he's had at least that many PAs:

2022 (A)  124 wRC+

2023 (A+) 124 wRC+

2024 (AA) 124 wRC+

2024 (AAA) 124 wRC+

 

So his baseline is Happ this year with plus defense in RF?

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

So his baseline is Happ this year with plus defense in RF?

He'd be playing center on most non PCA teams.

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

He'd be playing center on most non PCA teams.

And people reflexively want to trade him because he's been on the 40-man too long or something. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, CubinNY said:

And people reflexively want to trade him because he's been on the 40-man too long or something. 

I'm with you, but the consensus seems to believe him and Triantos are unlikely to remain Cubs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

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8. Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Cubs

Team: Triple-A Iowa (International)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 4.26, 1 GS, 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 SO.

The Scoop: The Cubs’ 2022 fifth-round pick out of Texas Tech, Birdsell got better and better as the season wore on. Even with a couple of rough starts in September, Birdsell was impressive generally with Triple-A Iowa and he finished his season with his best start of the season, filling the zone with mid-90 fastballs and a very hard, 90 mph slider to set a season-high with 10 strikeouts. Birdsell allowed one or fewer runs with six or more innings of work in five of his 12 Triple-A starts. Now he just needs to find some more consistency. He allowed more runs than innings pitched in four of his other seven Triple-A starts. (JC)

 

[Bertz]

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Drew Gray, LHP

This was Gray’s first full pro season after undergoing Tommy John surgery prior to the 2022 campaign. Like the two pitchers sandwiching him on this list, he doesn’t have a lot of experience on the mound. The overall stats this season aren’t impressive, but Gray had a 2.89 ERA in his final eight starts with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate.

Of course, that came with a 14.7 percent walk rate, which was actually six points lower than his season walk rate. Getting in the zone is the key to him finding success. But this season was really about his fastball, a pitch that the Cubs see as plus-plus as it gets tons of whiffs.

By the end of the season, Gray’s fastball was sitting 93 mph, the best of his pro career, but it plays above its velocity because of unique riding action that hitters struggle with. There seemed to be a turning point with Gray’s fastball command when they learned what kind of target he likes best. His fastball plays best up in the zone, but they realized the best sight line for him was trying to go down and to the glove side, forcing good extension.

Gray understands that if he misses up with that pitch, that’s also a good result. The adjustment in sight line isn’t too dissimilar to the one Steele made with his four-seamer that led to his breakout. If they can continue developing the fastball command, the next step is with his secondaries, a curveball, sweeper and changeup that they’re continuing to observe to see which ends up standing out.

 

Also, by far most importantly

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Horton was at the Cubs’ Arizona complex rehabbing and will head home where he’ll start his offseason on-ramp. The expectation is that he’ll be ready for spring training and do everything he can to have a healthy and strong 2025.

 

[javy knows my name]

On 9/24/2024 at 7:24 AM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

He allowed more runs than innings pitched in four of his other seven Triple-A starts. (JC)

"Jesus Christ" is right

[CubinNY]

Horton has to show he can manage a starting pitcher workload. He's not young and he's pitched less than 200 innings between college and professional baseball. That's not the profile of a starting pitcher. 

I understand why they limit innings and all the other stuff, but at some point, he has to pitch like a starter for more than a handful of starts. 

Flame away.

[Outshined_One]

27 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Horton has to show he can manage a starting pitcher workload. He's not young and he's pitched less than 200 innings between college and professional baseball. That's not the profile of a starting pitcher. 

I understand why they limit innings and all the other stuff, but at some point, he has to pitch like a starter for more than a handful of starts. 

Flame away.

I'd flame away if this were a year ago today, but this season was definitely a downer for Horton and his potential to be a reliable SP.  There is some comfort that his injury issues were not the sort that typically sink a pitcher's career, but still, he's got work to do next season.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

A couple things since I still think Cade Horton is easily the best pitching prospect in the org and a top 100 prospect in baseball (especially since this season didn't result in him having to have surgery and the Cubs believe his velo drop off in AAA was related to mechanics):

1) There are only 3 pitchers this year who will break 200 IP in the big leagues. In 2014, there were 34 pitchers that hit or surpassed 200. The 34th most IP this year is 173.2 (admittedly, most teams have 3 more games so 34th might bump up a bit). Clearly, more and more young SP now build up their innings in their first few years in the majors.

2) Pitching injuries are rampant in the minors and majors and a lost year of development is no longer a death knell to a prospect's chance of being a major league SP. Check out the sheer number of pitching injuries the best pitching development teams (Dodgers, Guardians, Rays) have and you'll see a chunk of these prospects pop back up healthy a year or so later and eventually turn into viable big league starters (yes, some like Dustin May are probably toast after multiple injuries). Justin Steele's development is a perfect example of this. It's just par for the course with pitching development in the 2020s, when teams value velocity and spin. The key is to have a lot of pitching prospects and realize pitching development is even less linear than hitting development due to the additional injuries and innings ramp-ups. 

** That said, the Cubs limit the innings of their A-ball pitchers more than most orgs (since their SPs only pitch once a week in A-ball and are still capped around 60-75 pitches/week) and there's no evidence the amount they baby (for a lack of a better word) their pitchers actually protects them health-wise and I'd assume the lack of innings they get in A-ball hampers their development.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'm wondering if his injuries were impacting his extension as well. Feels like they had to be. 

 

He went from dominating AA hitters for a handful of starts to being a TINSTAPP reminder almost immediately upon promotion. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Clearly, more and more young SP now build up their innings in their first few years in the majors.

Yeah I think this is the biggy.  Another thing I'd point to as well is guys like Michael Lorenzen and Seth Lugo taking LONG breaks from being a SP and then coming back and fairly quickly becoming boring innings eating SPs.

It feels like teams are pretty comfortable with more or less any grown adult targeting ~120 innings.  So if Horton is reasonably healthy from here he can do 120 next year, 150-160 in '26, and be reigns off from there.

And while he hasn't thrown a ton of innings to this point, it's not a litany of injuries.  It's a pretty standard TJ and then this recent lat.  There's nothing to prove he's not snakebitten like a Dustin May, but we're not nearly there yet.  Especially with his raw velo being more good than great.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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Cam Smith, 3B, Cubs

Age: 21
Highest Level: Double-A

Smith led all debut hitters with 36 hits, seven home runs and a 1.005 OPS that was tops among all batters with at least 100 plate appearances. The 14th overall pick began his pro season with Low-A Myrtle Beach but quickly jumped to High-A South Bend and then finally Double-A Tennessee. 

Across all three levels, Smith slashed .313/.396/.609 to go with 16 extra-base hits and terrific batted ball data alongside surface-level stats. His 106 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity was good for ninth-best among the 158-debut player pool. Among players with at least 100 plate appearances, that mark was fourth-best behind only Jac Caglianone (109.2), Charlie Condon (107.6) and Aaron Parker (106.4).

Smith managed that sort of impact while making plenty of contact overall (22.9% miss), tons of contact inside the zone (15.7% in-zone miss) and showing solid swing decisions (23% chase rate).

 

[Tryptamine]

19 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

 Jac Caglianone (109.2)

 

Jesus.

[Donzo]

Do we have an update on Brody McCullough?

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

17 hours ago, Donzo said:

Do we have an update on Brody McCullough?

 

No, and I've asked around a bit and got nothing.

[Donzo]

Odd. 

We do know that his injury is to his knee. Nothing to do with his arm or shoulder- right?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 9/1/2024 at 2:34 PM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

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Cubs first baseman Jonathan Long is another hot hitter. He hit four home runs in the last week with a 289 wRC+. The 2023 ninth-rounder has been crushing Double-A Tennessee since being promoted at the end of July, to the tune of a 203 wRC+ over 161 plate appearances. Under the hood, his Statcast is quite good, mapping quite closely to fellow Cubs prospect Matt Shaw, with a plus 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and above-average contact and chase. 

Although “traditional” projection models probably have him as a better-than-average MLB bat with power in the 15-to-20 home run range, the pop is a bit lower than expected from someone currently playing mostly first base in the upper minors. From a fantasy perspective that probably lowers him a bit. The underlying metrics, though, suggest that there is more in the tank, and perhaps his past week’s work is evidence that it is starting to actualize. RoboScout will be keeping an eye on him.

 

BA, today (I'm quoting the reference to Long from the start of Sept above):  https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/9-underrated-mlb-hitting-prospects-to-target-according-to-roboscout/

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Jonathon Long, 1B, Cubs

At the start of September, I wrote that the 22-year-old 2023 ninth-rounder had similar underlying Statcast data to fellow Cubs prospect Matt Shaw. Opening it up further to other 22-year-olds, both C.J. Kayfus (Guardians) and Jared Serna (Marlins) have very similar—and arguably inferior—Statcast data despite being generally regarded as more viable fantasy prospects. 

Here’s how their plate appearances stack up: 

• Long: High-A (289), Double-A (200)
• Shaw: Double-A (371), Triple-A (153)
• Kayfus: High-A (183), Double-A (298)
• Serna: High-A (393), Double-A/Triple-A (198)

Now, let’s check out the Statcast data:

Name	Age	Cont%	IZ-Cont%	90th EV	Chase%	Barrel%	xwOBAcon
Jonathon Long	22	75%	79%	105.5 mph	23%	14%	.396
Matt Shaw	22	75%	81%	105.1 mph	28%	15%	.360
C.J. Kayfus	22	73%	81%	102.2 mph	25%	18%	.379
Jared Serna	22	75%	80%	103.9 mph	27%	18%	.326

Of course, it’s not helpful if the underlying metrics don’t materialize into actual production. However, there is a clear opportunity for the two to converge, underscoring how Long is potentially underrated. 

 

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

BA, today (I'm quoting the reference to Long from the start of Sept above):  https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/9-underrated-mlb-hitting-prospects-to-target-according-to-roboscout/

 

Those numbers are very much giving Christian Walker.  Walker's last three years:

24% chase

85% in zone contact

76% overall contact

12% Barrel Rate

.403 xwOBA on Contact

Walker's run a healthy 120 wRC+ with those numbers. 

I will say that Long's 79% in zone contact rate doesn't quite jive with a lot of the rest of the data we have. 79% is pretty crappy, that's about 10th percentile, in line with guys like Dansby Swanson, Kyle Schwarber. and Giancarlo Stanton.  His overall contact rating is a lot healthier, more like 30th percentile, in line with e.g. Ian Happ or Trea Turner.

I wonder if he has a hole in his swing?  Or maybe he was very beatable in zone early in the year at SB, and then when he went super saiyan at Tenn his contact improved but not enough to salvage his full season numbers?  His swinging strike rate and his K rate both dropped quite a bit at Tenn (and were very healthy), so maybe that's it.

[Tryptamine]

22 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

BA, today (I'm quoting the reference to Long from the start of Sept above):  https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/9-underrated-mlb-hitting-prospects-to-target-according-to-roboscout/

 

Did not expect to see Long with the higher EV than Shaw. If there's 55 power in there, that's actually pretty exciting. I was kind of viewing him as a James Loney where most of that iso comes from doubles, but there might be a 20-25 HR bat there. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-hitters-to-target-whose-2024-statcast-data-compares-most-favorably-with-top-mlb-prospects/

James Wood and Ángel Cepeda:

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Name	Level	Age	Miss%	IZ-Miss%	Chase%	xwOBAcon	90th EV
James Wood	AAA	21	26%	15%	25%	.400	109 mph
Angel Cepeda	Complex	18	28%	18%	24%	.371	102 mph

Angel Cepeda (Cubs), an athletic infielder with above-average speed. This entire exercise is to potentially unearth some preseason sleepers and these are two names that fit the bill.

Kristian Campbell and Cam Smith:

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Name	Level	Age	Miss%	IZ-Miss%	Chase%	xwOBAcon	90th EV
Kristian Campbell	AAA	22	22%	17%	21%	.422	106 mph
Cam Smith	Double-A	21	23%	16%	23%	.397	106 mph

Cam Smith (Cubs) came out of the gates on fire in his professional debut after the draft, also advancing through three levels and finishing in Double-A. On the season, he hit .313/.396/.609 with seven home runs in 134 plate appearances. Keeping in mind that, with the small sample size, we can expect some regression in 2025, but the underlying data is clearly excellent. A very auspicious debut for the infield slugger.