FanGraphs Crowdsources the FA Market

[David]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

 

Some notables:

 

David Price (P)

Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR

29 220.1 9.19 1.92 40.4 % 2.45 2.78 3.24 7.1 6.4

Median Years: 7

Median AAV: $28 million

Total: $196 million

 

Average Years: 6.9

Average AAV: $27.5 million

Total: $190.8 million

 

#2 Jason Heyward (OF)

Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR

25 610 9.2 % 14.8 % .293 .359 .439 .346 121 21.6 16.4 6.0

Median Years: 8

Median AAV: $23 million

Total: $184 million

 

Average Years: 7.7

Average AAV: $22.7 million

Total: $174.7 million

 

Will the Cardinals extend Heyward a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?

Yes: 98%. No: 2%.

 

Will Heyward accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?

No: 98%. Yes: 2%.

 

Zack Greinke (P)

Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR

31 222.2 8.08 1.62 48.0 % 1.66 2.76 3.22 10.0 5.9

Median Years: 6

Median AAV: $26 million

Total: $156 million

 

Average Years: 5.8

Average AAV: $26.7 million

Total: $155.3 million

 

*Assumes he opts out of the three years and $71 million remaining on his contract, which he’s expected to do.

 

Jordan Zimmermann (P)

Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR

29 201.2 7.32 1.74 42.0 % 3.66 3.75 3.82 2.9 3.0

Median Years: 6

Median AAV: $21 million

Total: $126 million

 

Average Years: 5.6

Average AAV: $20.8 million

Total: $116.8 million

 

Will the Nationals extend Zimmermann a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?

Yes: 99%. No: 1%.

 

Will Zimmermann accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?

No: 99%. Yes: 1%.

 

Jeff Samardzija (P)

Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-Wins WAR

30 214.0 6.86 2.06 39.0 % 4.96 4.23 4.31 1.0 2.7

Median Years: 4

Median AAV: $16 million

Total: $64 million

 

Average Years: 4.3

Average AAV: $16.2 million

Total: $69.7 million

 

Will the White Sox extend Samardzija a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?

Yes: 92%. No: 8%.

 

Will Samardzija accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?

No: 90%. Yes: 10%.

 

What mnemonic device, if any, do you employ to spell correctly this player’s surname?

Top Response #1: Google his name and let it auto-correct me.

Top Response #2: Wait, mnemonic device starts with an “m”?

Top Response #3: The black void swallows us all.

 

Dexter Fowler (OF)

Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Offense Defense WAR

29 690 12.2 % 22.3 % .250 .346 .411 .333 110 8.1 0.6 3.2

Median Years: 4

Median AAV: $14 million

Total: $56 million

 

Average Years: 3.9

Average AAV: $13.8 million

Total: $54.3 million

 

Will the Cubs extend Fowler a qualifying offer ($15.8M)?

Yes: 76%. No: 24%.

 

Will Fowler accept the qualifying offer, if extended one?

No: 84%. Yes: 16%.

 

Seems a tad light on Price...I figured he'd break $200M. I think Heyward will too.

[Guest]

At the top of the market, the Fangraphs crowd is generally a year and a few million AAV short of the eventual reality. Price is certainly getting 7 years and almost certainly getting 30 million AAV, for example. Zimmermann doesn't seem that far off though.

 

The other outfielders were interesting to me too:

 

Heyward 8/184

Cespedes 6/132

Fowler 4/54

Rasmus 3/36

Span 3/36

Jackson 3/30

Parra 3/24

Aoki 2/14

Venable/Young/De Aza/Davis 2/12

Byrd/Victorino 1/7

[apete6]

At those numbers, Samardzija and Fowler look very attractive.

[Cubswin11]

I like Samardzija and Zimmerman at those costs.

[Guest]

I have an inherent distrust for him, but even if he gets a bit more years/$, that's not bad for Leake at all. He's 28 next year, has been durable, and is prime Bosio bait as a guy who throws a cutter but still has a bit of a platoon split.

[Cubswin11]

Bud Norris on a cheap 1 year deal as a potential back end or bullpen guy is something I wouldn't mind, the stuff is there. Would be worth throwing him to Bosio and seeing what they could do.

[Cubswin11]

I have an inherent distrust for him, but even if he gets a bit more years/$, that's not bad for Leake at all. He's 28 next year, has been durable, and is prime Bosio bait as a guy who throws a cutter but still has a bit of a platoon split.

I pretty much have the same sentiment, I should like him more (especially if the FG estimates are close) but I just don't. Also he doesn't cost a pick.

[SouthSideRyan]

I really don't want to waste any time on the likes of Bud Norris, nor do I care at all about giving up draft picks.

[Cubswin11]

I really don't want to waste any time on the likes of Bud Norris, nor do I care at all about giving up draft picks.

I agree about the draft picks, shouldn't matter. Just pointing out that it's an added benefit with Leake. And this FO seems like they are always going to bring in a guy like Norris, not saying he should be a main addition or depended on for anything, just for their yearly "see if we can fix it guy" I don't mind him as an option. Part of having the money to for top line talent should bring with it the ability to bring in a few guys every year for ~$3 million to try out essentially and it not to be a big deal to never have them pan out or have them cut by June.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The Cubs hold a $13.0M option on Cahill’s contract

Holy [expletive].

[sneakypower]

I have an inherent distrust for him, but even if he gets a bit more years/$, that's not bad for Leake at all. He's 28 next year, has been durable, and is prime Bosio bait as a guy who throws a cutter but still has a bit of a platoon split.

i have an inherent trust for him

 

sign Heyward, Leake, Cahill, Bourjos, maybe trade for Teheran/Ross/Ventura*, and call it a day; if Heyward signing budget leaves money too tight, then just pick up Hill

 

*Castro, Pierce Johnson & McKinney?

[Guest]

I have an inherent distrust for him, but even if he gets a bit more years/$, that's not bad for Leake at all. He's 28 next year, has been durable, and is prime Bosio bait as a guy who throws a cutter but still has a bit of a platoon split.

i have an inherent trust for him

 

sign Heyward, Leake, Cahill, Bourjos, maybe trade for Teheran/Ross/Ventura*, and call it a day; if Heyward signing budget leaves money too tight, then just pick up Hill

 

*Castro, Pierce Johnson & McKinney?

 

Heh, I was thinking about something almost identical this morning. Heyward, Leake, Cahill, Trade for Teheran with one of Castro/Soler/Baez as the headliner, maybe trade Coghlan for McGee if Soler doesn't go to Atlanta. Easy to do with 150 million, still pretty doable with 140 too(trade Hammel, insist on Castro in the Teheran deal).

 

Bourjos I think is interesting, but I think it's entirely possible he's a complete zero with the bat too.

[sneakypower]

Bourjos I think is interesting, but I think it's entirely possible he's a complete zero with the bat too.

i kind of expect it, but he still helps a lot with late inning substitutions for Soler, and solving LF vs tough LHP

 

signing Heyward is still the only part that truly matters, for about a hundred reasons

[Guest]

even though i want a top tier pitcher, signing heyward would make our everyday lineup and overall position group just indescribably absurd. and for a long time.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I keep viewing Heyward to be a lot older than he is because he's been around forever. It's almost hard to believe he's a day younger than Rizzo.

[Banedon]

I quite enjoyed some of the additional questions they added on. Sharks was the best though.

[doublebubble]

Denard Span seems really attractive to me. I know he was injured last year. Are the nats bringing him back for sure? Or was his injury really bad last year?

[Clem Fandango]

Denard Span seems really attractive to me. I know he was injured last year. Are the nats bringing him back for sure? Or was his injury really bad last year?

 

There was a post on Span over on BN that talks about him as a possible stop gap that probably has more info than you even want:

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2015/11/03/how-about-denard-span-as-a-stop-gap-in-center-field-for-the-2016-cubs/

[Cubswin11]

I'd be okay with bringing in Span on a 1 year deal but I would really like to bring Jackson back as well if that's the route we go.

[rawaction]

I like Span. But yeah, would definitely need a strong backup. He may not be healthy until March. Jackson, or finding a way to get Maybin would be really nice.

[StylesClash]

Honest to god I don't understand everyone going crazy over Heyward. Being 26 and playing great defense are certainly factors working in his favor.

 

But the past three seasons he's shown no power. And while his ability to work the count is solid, a career 353 OBP isn't exactly all world caliber. Unless the thought process is Heyward's numbers will solidly improve as he enters his late 20's I think the idea of giving him 200 million is ridiculous.

[Guest]

Honest to god I don't understand everyone going crazy over Heyward. Being 26 and playing great defense are certainly factors working in his favor.

 

But the past three seasons he's shown no power. And while his ability to work the count is solid, a career 353 OBP isn't exactly all world caliber. Unless the thought process is Heyward's numbers will solidly improve as he enters his late 20's I think the idea of giving him 200 million is ridiculous.

 

No power is one way to put it. A wrong way, but one way.

 

And his OBP this year was somewhere around top 30 in baseball. He had a 121 wRC+. And he's a capable CF. He was a damn 6 win player this year.

 

Even if he were only what he was in 2014, which was a down year, he'd be a very valuable player.

[XZero771679666304]

Heyward is clearly an excellent player. That said, though I'm all for the Cubs throwing some money around, I don't think he's a player they need to drop $200MM on. I'd rather see that money spent on pitching, if it's going to be spent.

 

And though he's a capable center fielder now, I question how capable he will remain, even in the near-mid term.

 

Frankly, I'll be very surprised if the Cubs pursue him beyond the cursory stage.

[davell]

I think he's likely our top target. I agree that he's probably not special in CF. He could stopgap there for a year or two, but I wouldn't want him there long.

[Guest]

I think he's likely our top target. I agree that he's probably not special in CF. He could stopgap there for a year or two, but I wouldn't want him there long.

 

With as much as those guys have talked about how FAs in their prime years are rare (and kind of hand in hand, but not wanting to pay for past production), plus the fact that he profiles as their type of player (patient approach/OBP, power, helps with our contact issues, plus defense - there's also the comments about lefty bats in wrigley from a few years ago that you can throw into the mix), I just cant see how they won't be very strongly interested, even if this team's more glaring needs appear to be in the middle of the rotation.