If Soler is dealt

[Guest]

I guess I look at it that a pitcher who throws hard can shift his balance to other pitches as he loses velocity - especially one who already has plus command. A pitcher who is getting by with average velocity doesn't have much else to fall back on as he loses zip.

 

But I don't data for either side of that debate.

 

The problem with that is that 1) Salazar uses that pitch a ton(13th of 78 qualifiers in 4 seam uses) 2) his second pitch is a changeup which also loses effectiveness as the fastball loses velocity and 3) his other pitches are used so little we can't be super confident they'd be effective alternatives. If Salazar had more MLB innings that highlighted the strength of those 3rd-5th pitches or we could be more certain he'll keep his stuff through 200+ IP that'd help, but we don't have either of those yet. For another small datapoint, September was his worst month performance wise, and he also failed to average 95 mph in 5 of his final 6 starts(he averaged 95+ in 14 of the other 24).

 

This has been a lot of words on what was really a minor point in the overall comparison though, I want to make sure to describe it thoroughly because it's a bit in the weeds and interesting to me conceptually, but Salazar's specific repertoire isn't the linchpin of why I prefer Teheran over him.

[Guest]

I guess I look at it that a pitcher who throws hard can shift his balance to other pitches as he loses velocity - especially one who already has plus command. A pitcher who is getting by with average velocity doesn't have much else to fall back on as he loses zip.

 

But I don't data for either side of that debate.

 

The problem with that is that 1) Salazar uses that pitch a ton(13th of 78 qualifiers in 4 seam uses) 2) his second pitch is a changeup which also loses effectiveness as the fastball loses velocity and 3) his other pitches are used so little we can't be super confident they'd be effective alternatives. If Salazar had more MLB innings that highlighted the strength of those 3rd-5th pitches or we could be more certain he'll keep his stuff through 200+ IP that'd help, but we don't have either of those yet. For another small datapoint, September was his worst month performance wise, and he also failed to average 95 mph in 5 of his final 6 starts(he averaged 95+ in 14 of the other 24).

 

This has been a lot of words on what was really a minor point in the overall comparison though, I want to make sure to describe it thoroughly because it's a bit in the weeds and interesting to me conceptually, but Salazar's specific repertoire isn't the linchpin of why I prefer Teheran over him.

It's been an interesting conversation and I can see the merits in your argument. If we were arguing this at the end of 2014, I might even agree with you. But I just can't balance the performance argument in Teheran's favor after 2015. The difference in durability to this point in their careers doesn't close the gap for me, either.

 

but it would be a lot less interesting if we agreed.

[mul21]

I guess I look at it that a pitcher who throws hard can shift his balance to other pitches as he loses velocity - especially one who already has plus command. A pitcher who is getting by with average velocity doesn't have much else to fall back on as he loses zip.

 

But I don't data for either side of that debate.

 

The problem with that is that 1) Salazar uses that pitch a ton(13th of 78 qualifiers in 4 seam uses) 2) his second pitch is a changeup which also loses effectiveness as the fastball loses velocity and 3) his other pitches are used so little we can't be super confident they'd be effective alternatives. If Salazar had more MLB innings that highlighted the strength of those 3rd-5th pitches or we could be more certain he'll keep his stuff through 200+ IP that'd help, but we don't have either of those yet. For another small datapoint, September was his worst month performance wise, and he also failed to average 95 mph in 5 of his final 6 starts(he averaged 95+ in 14 of the other 24).

 

This has been a lot of words on what was really a minor point in the overall comparison though, I want to make sure to describe it thoroughly because it's a bit in the weeds and interesting to me conceptually, but Salazar's specific repertoire isn't the linchpin of why I prefer Teheran over him.

 

I'm grabbing this post because it's the last one in the sequence, but isn't it likely that a guy losing velocity on the 4 seamer is going to lose similar velocity on the change up? I mean, not exactly on a 1:1 scale, but reasonably close enough that you're still going to have a decent delta in there to continue having the deception you're looking for?

[Derwood]

Why is everyone expecting that young, cost-controlled pitching will be shopped around this off season?

[sneakypower]

Plus you just want a monster mentally and I think all those guys are a little soft for what the Chicago Cubs can and should be sooner rather than later.

really curious about this

 

like is this guy a mental monster

[imb]

how many times are we going to let this weirdo get banned then do a different screen name then come back? I mean now that he's in babby's first scout school it's going to be awful around here

[Ding Dong Johnson]

how many times are we going to let this weirdo get banned then do a different screen name then come back? I mean now that he's in babby's first scout school it's going to be awful around here

YES!

[Guest]

I'm grabbing this post because it's the last one in the sequence, but isn't it likely that a guy losing velocity on the 4 seamer is going to lose similar velocity on the change up? I mean, not exactly on a 1:1 scale, but reasonably close enough that you're still going to have a decent delta in there to continue having the deception you're looking for?

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think so. For example, Dan Haren lost 2 mph off his fastball from 2007 to 2011(91.8 to 89.8), and his changeup velocity actually ticked up a bit: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1757&position=P#pfxpitchvelocity

 

At the very least, I think the nature of throwing a changeup means that the relationship is much looser, if there is one.

 

Why is everyone expecting that young, cost-controlled pitching will be shopped around this off season?

 

Most every name mentioned in this thread(and there's been a number of them mentioned) have public rumors that they might be traded. This isn't a bunch of random 'well what if the Dodgers decided to trade Kershaw?' speculation.

[Derwood]

Why is everyone expecting that young, cost-controlled pitching will be shopped around this off season?

 

Most every name mentioned in this thread(and there's been a number of them mentioned) have public rumors that they might be traded. This isn't a bunch of random 'well what if the Dodgers decided to trade Kershaw?' speculation.

 

I know, that's all I'm asking. Just seems odd that cost-controlled, young pitching (which, not long ago, was a precious commodity) is something that is now being shopped around by multiple teams

[Sammy Sofa]

[rhetorical]Why would the Cubs shop any of their young, cost-controlled hitters?[/rhetorical]

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Why is everyone expecting that young, cost-controlled pitching will be shopped around this off season?

 

Most every name mentioned in this thread(and there's been a number of them mentioned) have public rumors that they might be traded. This isn't a bunch of random 'well what if the Dodgers decided to trade Kershaw?' speculation.

 

I know, that's all I'm asking. Just seems odd that cost-controlled, young pitching (which, not long ago, was a precious commodity) is something that is now being shopped around by multiple teams

 

It happens every offseason, really. Off the top of my head, Heaney, Skaggs, Bauer, Cashner, Latos, Gio Gonzalez, & Shelby Miller were moved in offseason deals at young ages with multiple years of control left on their deals. I'm sure there's other examples I'm forgetting, but it's not really uncommon for a few of these guys to be included in deals every offseason, for various reasons.

[StylesClash]

I want Matt Moore, he'll rebound next year. Whether or not, Soler will do it? IDK.

 

I'd also see what Washington wants for Strasburg in a separate trade with Castro being a piece of it.

 

Strasburg has a career WHIP below 1.1 and ended the season on a high note. We would need a lot more than an inconsistent middle infielder who cant take a walk.

 

The more intriguing scenario is giving up Baez for one year of Strasburg (as well as the comp picks if he werent brought back). One year of dominant power pitching, and two high end compensation picks, is worth the boom or bust toolsy Baez in my mind.

[Guest]

Wait, you don't like Salazar because home runs, but you like Teheran?

[KingCubsFan]

F pitchers. I'm against giving up a young MLB regular for a pitcher. Go trade Contreras, Torres, McKinney, etc. for pitchers from rebuilding teams.

[Guest]

F pitchers. I'm against giving up a young MLB regular for a pitcher. Go trade Contreras, Torres, McKinney, etc. for pitchers from rebuilding teams.

 

The problem you'll run into there is that there are very few teams interested in giving up a good pitcher for non-MLB ready assets at this point, since there's probably 25 teams that fancy themselves a good offseason from playoff contention. Those teams that remain(Philadelphia, Colorado, maybe Atlanta, Miami, or Detroit) generally don't have quality (young) pitching to deal, or they too will want MLB ready players to justify it.

[KingCubsFan]

F pitchers. I'm against giving up a young MLB regular for a pitcher. Go trade Contreras, Torres, McKinney, etc. for pitchers from rebuilding teams.

 

The problem you'll run into there is that there are very few teams interested in giving up a good pitcher for non-MLB ready assets at this point, since there's probably 25 teams that fancy themselves a good offseason from playoff contention. Those teams that remain(Philadelphia, Colorado, maybe Atlanta, Miami, or Detroit) generally don't have quality (young) pitching to deal, or they too will want MLB ready players to justify it.

Have the White Sox admitted they're terrible yet? Quintana would be a great acquisition.

[Guest]

F pitchers. I'm against giving up a young MLB regular for a pitcher. Go trade Contreras, Torres, McKinney, etc. for pitchers from rebuilding teams.

 

The problem you'll run into there is that there are very few teams interested in giving up a good pitcher for non-MLB ready assets at this point, since there's probably 25 teams that fancy themselves a good offseason from playoff contention. Those teams that remain(Philadelphia, Colorado, maybe Atlanta, Miami, or Detroit) generally don't have quality (young) pitching to deal, or they too will want MLB ready players to justify it.

Have the White Sox admitted they're terrible yet? Quintana would be a great acquisition.

 

I love Quintana, but the Sox aren't trading him for our AA and below prospects. That's a deal that starts with Baez, maybe Castro if we're lucky and they like him and said prospects a lot.

[Cubswin11]

I'd like to get Odorizzi or Gausman and I think we could get one of them for some combo of Torres, Zagunis, Almora, McKinney, Contreras, Jeimer, etc.

[Guest]

I'd like to get Odorizzi or Gausman and I think we could get one of them for some combo of Torres, Zagunis, Almora, McKinney, Contreras, Jeimer, etc.

 

Odorizzi on a Gio Gonzalez-esque deal is an interesting idea if the Rays are up for it. I think Torres's best utility will be as trade bait too. Not sure if Odorizzi is the guy I'd want to use him on, but definitely worth exploring.

[Guest]

I want Matt Moore, he'll rebound next year. Whether or not, Soler will do it? IDK.

 

I'd also see what Washington wants for Strasburg in a separate trade with Castro being a piece of it.

 

Strasburg has a career WHIP below 1.1 and ended the season on a high note. We would need a lot more than an inconsistent middle infielder who cant take a walk.

 

The more intriguing scenario is giving up Baez for one year of Strasburg (as well as the comp picks if he werent brought back). One year of dominant power pitching, and two high end compensation picks, is worth the boom or bust toolsy Baez in my mind.

I like Strasburg for Baez a lot. I don't think the Nats would though. It's too much of a risk for Rizzo who may well be on the hot seat this year.

 

Who do the Padres have not name Cashner? Their GM loves to make risky gambles.

[Guest]

Baez for one year of any pitcher is a complete non-starter for me. Especially Strasburg, where you've got zero chance of an extension and he's an even higher risk to miss time with injury.

[jersey cubs fan]

I want Matt Moore, he'll rebound next year. Whether or not, Soler will do it? IDK.

 

I'd also see what Washington wants for Strasburg in a separate trade with Castro being a piece of it.

 

Strasburg has a career WHIP below 1.1 and ended the season on a high note. We would need a lot more than an inconsistent middle infielder who cant take a walk.

 

The more intriguing scenario is giving up Baez for one year of Strasburg (as well as the comp picks if he werent brought back). One year of dominant power pitching, and two high end compensation picks, is worth the boom or bust toolsy Baez in my mind.

I like Strasburg for Baez a lot. I don't think the Nats would though. It's too much of a risk for Rizzo who may well be on the hot seat this year.

 

Who do the Padres have not name Cashner? Their GM loves to make risky gambles.

Baez for Strasburg? Javy Baez?

[Tedward]

I want Matt Moore, he'll rebound next year. Whether or not, Soler will do it? IDK.

 

I'd also see what Washington wants for Strasburg in a separate trade with Castro being a piece of it.

 

Strasburg has a career WHIP below 1.1 and ended the season on a high note. We would need a lot more than an inconsistent middle infielder who cant take a walk.

 

The more intriguing scenario is giving up Baez for one year of Strasburg (as well as the comp picks if he werent brought back). One year of dominant power pitching, and two high end compensation picks, is worth the boom or bust toolsy Baez in my mind.

I like Strasburg for Baez a lot. I don't think the Nats would though. It's too much of a risk for Rizzo who may well be on the hot seat this year.

 

Who do the Padres have not name Cashner? Their GM loves to make risky gambles.

 

Tyson Ross

[Cubswin11]

I'd like to get Odorizzi or Gausman and I think we could get one of them for some combo of Torres, Zagunis, Almora, McKinney, Contreras, Jeimer, etc.

 

Odorizzi on a Gio Gonzalez-esque deal is an interesting idea if the Rays are up for it. I think Torres's best utility will be as trade bait too. Not sure if Odorizzi is the guy I'd want to use him on, but definitely worth exploring.

Yeah, I think there's some Arrieta potential to him. He throws a cutter already and obviously Bosio has shown what he can do with that between Wood and Arrieta. Odorizzi just spent this year at 25, in Arrieta's age 25 season (2011) their stuff compares to be relatively similar from a velocity stand point. Odorizzi average velocity was 91.3, 85.4, 71.3, 85 on his FB/CT/Curveball (only threw 3% of time)/Change Arrieta at age 25 was 92.4, 86, 77.5, 85.6 on FB/Slider/Curve/Changeup.

 

*I will note that I know it's incredibly unlikely to pull another Arrieta scenario out, nor do I expect it with Odorizzi. But I think he's already pretty good and has upside plus is young/controlled and at least seems to have the type of stuff that our coaches have had success taking up another notch (and in Arrieta's case a million notches).

[Clem Fandango]

Is everyone mortified of Dylan Bundy at this point?