40-man Roster/Rule 5 Discussion

[Brickhouse]

I don't know if this belongs in the minor league forum. It's sort of half and half. I've heard a lot of people talking about how this year there will be some especially difficult decisions to be made when it comes to Rule 5 and that the Cubs won't bring up Schwarber this season no matter what because they won't want to burn the 40-man roster spot on him with the impending crunch. That seemed a bit silly to me. Schwarber can be a difference maker at the plate and if the Cubs are in the hunt come August/September, I wouldn't flinch to bring him up if it was going to help the team make the playoffs and deal with the difficult 40-man decisions later.

 

What do you guys think?

[CubsWin]

The Cubs 40-man roster currently stands at 41 when you include the two players (Olt & Turner) on the 60-day DL. Fowler, Coghlan, Motte, Wada, Russell and Denorfia all have expiring contracts. That lowers it to 35 players, but the Cubs may want to bring some of them back. Others still under team control may be released to make room. Those include (in no particular order):

 

P Dallas Beeler

P Gonzalez Germen

P Edwin Jackson

P Eric Jokisch

P Yoervis Medina

P Brian Schlitter

C Rafael Lopez

IF Johnathan Herrera

IF Christian Villanueva

OF Mike Baxter

 

As it stands now, the Cubs have about 5, maybe 6 players that are at risk of being selected if they're not rostered. Vogelbach, P. Johnson, C. Black, Contreras, Pineyro and my personal UTR fav John Andreoli. Are there 5 or 6 (actually 6 or 7 since the roster's at 41 or even 7 or 8 if the Cubs want to have a roster spot open for an early FA signing) players the Cubs can somewhat painlessly cut to make room for all 6 of those guys?

 

With Alcantara, Baez and La Stella under team control and on the 40-man (but not on the active roster), I can easily see Herrera going and not having to be replaced with another middle infielder. That opens a spot for Vogelbach.

 

If the Cubs are able to get a hand shake deal done with Contreras, they might be able to keep him in the organization without placing him on the 40-man. I really don't know what would motivate Contreras to agree to that. Maybe someone can help me understand. If he doesn't agree, the Cubs may be forced to choose between Lopez and Contreras. Or they could keep 4 catchers which isn't unheard of.

 

The case for or against pitchers Johnson, Black and Pineyro isn't as clear cut. One, they're pitchers. The Cubs need to see where they are in late August to know what they've got going into the off season. Johnson's currently rehabbing a lat strain, but if he and Pineyro finish the season looking better as rotation depth than Dallas Beeler and/or Edwin Jackson do or if Corey Black looks better than Germen or Schlitter for bullpen depth then those moves become easy. Jokisch has a leg up on the others because of his left-handedness.

 

And finally, the soft spot I hold for John Andreoli versus the lack of any feeling I have toward Mike Baxter. The obvious caveat of needing to see Andreoli keep performing the rest of the year aside, the big question for me is does the existence of Matt Szczur, a very similar OFer, play a role in the decision making process? Is the need for a more veteran presence in a back up role come into play?

 

After that analysis, it doesn't seem to be as difficult of a roster crunch as I originally thought. The Cubs will likely want some extra spots open to sign a free agent or two and they will likely want to replace the veterans with expiring contracts with other veterans, perhaps resigning the players themselves.

 

Check me. Am I missing players that might be worthy of adding? Did I miscalculate? Or is this crunch not as crunchy as I first thought.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

People say there's going to be a crunch every year, but these people are the weirdos who care deeply whether Josh Vitters or Alberto Cabrera make the team.

 

It'll be fine.

[SouthSideRyan]

Travis Wood will almost certainly be gone. You can add Turner and Olt to guys to be jettisoned, and there's no need to keep 2 guys whose best case are backups in Contreras and Lopez. I guess I'd keep Contreras.

[davell]

I fully expect Vogelbach to be dealt before then and I could see Alcantara and/or Javy gone too at the deadline. At any rate, even if none of them are moved, I don't see us having any real issues, we've got plenty of guys we can dump if we need to.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Some of this will probably be resolved with a mid-season trade.

[Guest]

Some of this will probably be resolved with a mid-season trade.

 

Certainly. Guys like Vogelbach and Villanueva are unlikely to ever make an impact on the big league team but would be nice components of mid-season trades. And as davell mentioned, even guys who could make an impact on the big league team this season like Alcántara or Baez could easily be traded.

 

As to the OP, I'd be shocked if a healthy Schwarber isn't on the big league team in September.

[toonsterwu]

More than a lot of recent years, I have very little "worry" about Rule 5 this winter. A part of that is, a lot of the top talent is in the bigs now, and along with that, you simply aren't going to carry a 40 man with majority youth, so you need some veteran depth. Thus, if it's close, I understand going for the veteran depth.

 

More importantly, this seems like a weaker lineup of potentially available guys. Very few guys intrigue me that are available, and while there are always guys with tools, some of these, you just nod your head and move on. Vogelbach will be rostered or traded, that much I feel confident on. Barring massive struggles/injury, I'd keep Pineyro around ... but even that one, I can understand if the front office decides against it. Same goes for Corey Black. I think they roster him ... but if they decide against it ... I'm okay. He's not a starter. Is he an elite pen arm that demands rostering? Perhaps ... but I won't be pissed if they decide against it.

 

What else is there? Willson Contreras is a 6 year minor league FA. If his defense is good enough, I think they stash him on the 40 man as an upper level depth catcher. If his defense isn't good enough, I'm not going to be hurt if they let him go, even if his bat looks intriguing right now. Pierce Johnson? I've argued and defended him before, but until he makes it back healthy and pitching, I'm not too bothered if they risk it. Furthermore, it's not like his run in AA made it seem like he had a decent chance to be a big league starter. Jeimer Candelario's awful young ... but still hasn't put it together offensively (and it's awfully tough to see a likely corner IF that far away get selected). I could see PJ Francescon or Michael Jensen get plucked if they keep performing well ... then again, I wouldn't rule out Francescon/Jensen from getting a big league look from the Cubs if they decide to look internally for pen help. Either way, they doesn't feel like late inning pen arm types (Jensen has a better shot at that, I think), so I can live with another team taking them.

 

I could honestly see guys like Daury Torrez or Carlos Penalver get considered by some teams. With the former, he's a nice young arm with arm strength and command, but he's not blowing anyone away. Would have to be a Wei-Chung Wang type of pick for another team (although that one was out of the blue) - that is, a bad team looking to steal a raw asset that they believe in. If some team liked Penalver's defense that much, I could see someone gamble and keep him as a utility guy for 2016, and move him back to the minors in 2017. In either case, you live with it if they get plucked.

 

Schwarber's on his own timeline. Elite talent go on their own timeline and I don't think Rule 5 will impact that. I can see them keep him in the minors all year ... and I can see them deciding to call him up and put him in LF.

 

We "know" these guys, so there's a tendency to like them more ... but this seems a relatively lean year in terms of talent available. Even the 6 year FA's - list doesn't look that troubling (granted, there's a reason why they are 6 year minor league FA's ... ). I think they'll probably make room for 3-4 new additions in addition to anyone being added midseason, and it won't be that hard to clear that space. I mean, if we're honest, there's a bevy of guys that could be cleared off without really batting an eye (doesn't mean they don't hold intrigue, but push came to shove, I can count about 15 guys on the 40 man I wouldn't be too bothered with if the Cubs lost them/swapped them out this winter). There's bound to be a few trades to clear out spots. At the end of the day, the combination of factors, as of now, just doesn't make me all that concerned about Rule 5 this winter.

[JeffH]

Fowler, Coghlan, Motte, Wada, Russell and Denorfia all have expiring contracts.

 

It doesn't matter much, but Coghlan doesn't have an expiring contract. He'll be eligible for arbitration one last time this coming offseason.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Here's the list of Rule 5 eligibles:

 

1. A minor league player who was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract is eligible for selection starting with the 5th Rule 5 Draft after he signs, and a minor league player who was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract becomes eligible for selection starting with the 4th Rule 5 Draft that followed his signing.

 

2. If a player signs his first contract after the conclusion of the season of the MLB or minor league club to which he is first assigned, the next season is considered to be the player's "first season" for Rule 5 eligibility purposes.

 

3. A free-agent with prior MLB and/or minor league service who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection if the player was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 5th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract, or the player was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 4th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract.

 

4. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has either been released or had his contract voided, and then re-signs with the same MLB organization within one year is eligible for selection.

 

5. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career is eligible for selection.

 

6. A player on the Voluntary Retired List, Disqualified List, or Ineligible List is not eligible for selection.

 

7. An MLB club can designate any player on a minor league reserve list "eligible for selection" in the Rule 5 Draft even if the player would not normally be eligible, but once a player is designated eligible for selection, he remains eligible for selection in all subsequent Rule 5 drafts. However, a player who was signed after being selected in the First-Year Player Draft (MLB Rule 4 Draft) cannot be designated "eligible for selection" in a Rule 5 Draft until after the first anniversary of the player signing his first contract with an MLB organization.

 

8. A minor league player-manager who would be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if he was only a player can be selected, but if he is selected, the player-manager can reject the selection. He has 30 days to decide. If he rejects the selection, the player-manager cannot be re-signed as a player during the following season.

 

CUBS MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2015 RULE 5 DRAFT (last updated 5-23-2015):

Roney Alcala, INF

Gioskar Amaya, INF-C

John Andreoli, OF

Pedro Araujo, RHP

Jeffrey Baez, OF

Corey Black, RHP

David Bote, INF

Matt Brazis, RHP

Stephen Bruno, INF

Jeimer Candelario, INF

Ben Carhart, INF

Francisco Carrillo, RHP

Erick Castillo, C

Zach Cates, RHP

Gerardo Concepcion, LHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)

Josh Conway, RHP

Blake Cooper, RHP

Varonex Cuevas, INF

Taylor Davis, C

Andin Diaz, LHP

Shawon Dunston Jr, OF

Kevin Encarnacion, OF

P. J. Francescon, RHP

Anthony Giansanti, OF

Michael Heesch, LHP

Michael Jensen, RHP

Pierce Johnson, RHP

Danny Lockhart, INF

Barret Loux, RHP

Mark Malave, RHP (ex-C)

Dillon Maples, RHP

Ricardo Marcano, OF

Justin Marra, C

Trey Martin, OF

Jonathan Martinez, RHP

Alberto Mineo, C

Yomar Morel, RHP

Yoanner Negrin, RHP

Ariel Ovando, LHP (ex-OF)

Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP

Jose Paulino, LHP

Carlos Penalver, INF

Hector Perez, RHP

Chris Pieters, LHP

Ivan Pineyro, RHP

James Pugliese, RHP

Bijan Rademacher, OF

Jasvir Rakkar, RHP

Austin Reed, RHP

Donn Roach, RHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)

Jacob Rogers, 1B

Alexander Santana, RHP

Tayler Scott, RHP

Rubi Silva, OF

Elliot Soto, INF

Daury Torrez, RHP

Dan Vogelbach, 1B

 

Will be protected:

-Johnson

-Vogelbach (if he hasn't been traded by then, a huge if)

-Black

 

Any of these guys could be protected/picked in the Rule 5/be in the big league pen at some point this season:

 

Paniagua

Pinyero

Cooper

Jensen

Martinez

Francescan

Pugliese

 

Bruno, Torrez, Candelerio round out the list of his who could be protected.

 

As for the current 40 man, Hererra, Schlitter, James Russell, Jokisch, Beeler, and German could all be relieved of their spot without anybody losing sleep.

[Guest]

I see a lot of names on that list that I'd hate to lose. But I won't be that broken up about anyone likely to be unprotected and picked.

[toonsterwu]

I am against protecting (as of now)

 

Pugliese - Unless stuff has improved, he's a soft-tossing lefty with command. He's not ready for the bigs. If he is ready and works his way up, good for him and we give him a look. If a team plucks him and he succeeds, I'd tip my cap and say congrats and move on.

 

Bruno - I want the guy to succeed, as not only was he a Wahoo, I sort of like what he "offers" - the potential to hit for a solid average, some pop, solid defense, defensive versatility. That said, injuries have hampered him, as has streakiness. I am Logan Watkins had a steadier history than him (for awhile, Watkins was hot for one half a year, and cold the other half ... usually a slow start, IIRC, but too lazy to check right now). As of now, looks like upper level utility depth. Like the guy, but if someone plucks him, OK.

 

Candelario - Don't see the point. Corner IF who hasn't shown elite offensive ability to justify an early rostering. The chances of him making it a full year is slim. I'd roll the dice and move on from him if he gets picked.

 

Cooper - There's a bit more debate with Cooper than the former 3, as he looks like he could cycle in and out of the bigs perhaps even right now. Still ... not an elite pen arm, not a late inning arm. With so many arms with better ceilings and performing, I'm against this as well.

 

Martinez - Not ready to help, not a huge ceiling. tip your cap if he succeeds with someone else.

 

Torrez - still raw. how much help can he offer a good team next year in the bigs, if he's taking a 40 man spot.

 

______

 

There's a better case to be made for the others, but it's as thin a list as I can recall. I am, we're talking about guys like PIerce Johnson and Corey Black as two of the prime candidates, and neither are high enough caliber talents (I mean, we're looking at best case mid-rotation starters, with a more realistic outcome as inconsistent end of the rotation starters/pen arms) to be really care that deeply if we lose, outside of the "bond" that gets developed by fans from following a system.

[Little Slide Rooter]

To clarify, there's aren't guys I'd lose sleep over, with the exceptions of Johnson, Vogelbach, Black, and maybe Pinyero, who will be protected regardless. Just guys who could possibly be on the big league roster by year's end (Francescan, Cooper,) or simply those that they might feel the urge to protect (Candelerio, Torrez,) though not ready to make it a full season on a big league roster.

 

The two that are the most intriguing are Paniague and Concepcion, eaxh of whose futures are likely to be decided over the course of this season anyway.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Revisiting this list near mid-season, my sentiment remains mostly the same.

 

The only obvious to protect are Johnson and Black.

 

Vogelbach certainly wouldn't be left unprotected, but my thinking is that he'll have been traded prior to decision time.

 

Candelerio and Torrez are both very young and currently doing very well. If a team really wanted to, they could easily stash them at the end of their bench/bullpen. And depending on how many spots we have available, we might want to protect them.

 

Pineyro, Martinez, Jensen, Paniagua, and Concepcion could all be Rule 5 bait. It would be a shame to lose any of them for nothing, but you can't protect everyone. But a few of them could be used in trades. None of them would fetch much on their own. But they could be enticing as 2nd-5th pieces, depending on the caliber of the deal.

 

To a lesser extent, the same could be said for Francescan, Pugliese, Heesch, Bruno, Amaya, and Rademacher. I suppose any of these guys could be selected by someone looking for something a big league ready-Ish for a try out. And if so, best of luck to them. Unless they're drafted by the Cardinals. In that case, [expletive] them.

 

In terms of the Rule 55, which I admittedly don't get, Wilson Contreres will be protected from that. But that doesn't cost anything but a AAA roster spot. I think.

 

As for Big League Roster spots, Wood will more than likely be non-tendered. Jackson's probably gone one way or another. James Russell, Herrera, Baxter are the only other free spots.

 

Denorfia likely walks as a free agent.

 

Fowler's a free agent, but if not resigned, his spot is likely filled by a big league acquisition.

 

I doubt that Coghlan is non-tendered, but I suppose he could be traded.

[davell]

Little surprised we didn't roster Felix Pena prior to him becoming a minor league FA, based on the substantial uptick in his stuff and the current 10 spots we have available.

[Guest]

Little surprised we didn't roster Felix Pena prior to him becoming a minor league FA, based on the substantial uptick in his stuff and the current 10 spots we have available.

 

They did re-sign Peña, at least.

[davell]

Little surprised we didn't roster Felix Pena prior to him becoming a minor league FA, based on the substantial uptick in his stuff and the current 10 spots we have available.

 

They did re-sign Peña, at least.

 

Oh cool. I was figuring he'd get rostered for us at this point and was surprised at AZPhil's report he wasn't.

[CubsWin]

Little surprised we didn't roster Felix Pena prior to him becoming a minor league FA, based on the substantial uptick in his stuff and the current 10 spots we have available.

 

They did re-sign Peña, at least.

 

Oh cool. I was figuring he'd get rostered for us at this point and was surprised at AZPhil's report he wasn't.

Doesn't make much difference really. He can still be selected in the draft, but it is an expression by the team that they're wanted.

[Bear Cub]

According to AZ Phil's latest roster posting, Pena, Batista, and Starling Peralta all signed futures contracts on 11/6/15.

[davell]

Little surprised we didn't roster Felix Pena prior to him becoming a minor league FA, based on the substantial uptick in his stuff and the current 10 spots we have available.

 

They did re-sign Peña, at least.

 

Oh cool. I was figuring he'd get rostered for us at this point and was surprised at AZPhil's report he wasn't.

Doesn't make much difference really. He can still be selected in the draft, but it is an expression by the team that they're wanted.

 

I think there's a good chance he'll get added to the 40 man.

[SouthSideRyan]

Little surprised we didn't roster Felix Pena prior to him becoming a minor league FA, based on the substantial uptick in his stuff and the current 10 spots we have available.

 

They did re-sign Peña, at least.

 

Oh cool. I was figuring he'd get rostered for us at this point and was surprised at AZPhil's report he wasn't.

Doesn't make much difference really. He can still be selected in the draft, but it is an expression by the team that they're wanted.

 

Sure it makes a difference. Now a team has to store a mediocre prospect 26 year old on their 25 man all year rather than signing him and having 3 years to pinball him in and out of their pen.

[craig]

Good point, Ryan. Carrying a guy on the 40 with the options-shuffle is way different than needing to carry on the 25.

 

If some other team liked him enough to commit a 25-man spot to him, they should have liked him enough to commit a 40-man spot to him. Way easier. So I don't see him as a likely Rule 5 guy, unless he somehow does something to change a team's evaluation over the next month. (Is he pitching winter ball, I wonder?)

[CubsWin]

Little surprised we didn't roster Felix Pena prior to him becoming a minor league FA, based on the substantial uptick in his stuff and the current 10 spots we have available.

 

They did re-sign Peña, at least.

 

Oh cool. I was figuring he'd get rostered for us at this point and was surprised at AZPhil's report he wasn't.

Doesn't make much difference really. He can still be selected in the draft, but it is an expression by the team that they're wanted.

 

Sure it makes a difference. Now a team has to store a mediocre prospect 26 year old on their 25 man all year rather than signing him and having 3 years to pinball him in and out of their pen.

It doesn't make any difference in a team's decision in whether or not they'll draft him. He's just as likely or unlikely to be taken in the Rule 5 now as before. It does mean that if he isn't drafted, no other team can sign him as a minor league free agent.

[SouthSideRyan]

The point is other than a dumb FO not doing their due diligence, there's no reason to think he'd be drafted in Rule 5 when he was just a MiLFA 3 weeks prior.

[davell]

The point is other than a dumb FO not doing their due diligence, there's no reason to think he'd be drafted in Rule 5 when he was just a MiLFA 3 weeks prior.

 

What am I missing here? Did other teams even have a chance to sign him? He was in our system obviously. It looks like we just did what looks to be a procedural move, prior to adding him to the 40 man at whatever date that is.