Baez

[sneakypower]

nah, that was accounting for even the 40th? percentile outcomes

 

ZiPS gives him .239/.288/.444 with 32%+, and even with +5 glove & wheels, that's the makings of an above average MI even if it's not exactly mine or the FO's ideal type of player

[sneakypower]

put it this way: top-Javy-Baez-comparable, Danny Espinosa is 2.5 WAR/160 G during his career

 

how much somebody personally values the route he's taken to achieve that production is personal preference; i can entertain arguments on either side of love/hate on a player like him

[Guest]

To the original question, Baez's improvements at AAA and in MLB give me enough optimism to take the chance on him as the primary 2B next year. You'll have a decent or great hedge for him with Castro, La Stella, or both still on the roster. You don't pencil him in as a primary run producer, but in an offense that has no other true weak spots(Russell's bat maybe), it's a perfectly fine gamble to take. If they think this restored his value enough to sell high, then that's fine too because he's still very high variance.

 

I don't see it. Those still aren't the peripherals of a starting infielder in MLB.

 

Yes, we've seen that you see some peripherals as concrete realities while others that can't be read into with as much certainty are 100% meaningless. Baez has a .412 BABIP, it's not going to stay that way. He also has a 31% LD% and only 7% soft contact, both are way better than any qualified 2B. It doesn't help answer the questions about his future, but it explains the very small sample of his MLB time this year. Reading much good or bad into that sample is silly. My confidence comes largely from his peripheral improvement at AAA and the material change in his swing that explains it. That his MLB performance directionally continues that improvement is enough for me to feel comfortable with him going forward(especially with capable backups).

[Guest]

When young players show an ability to make big changes to adjust to what pitchers were doing to them, it is a very good thing. Not every hitter can do that. Brett Jackson being an example of a guy that tried to adjust and failed.

 

Javy is certainly not a finished product. We haven't seen enough yet to know he's going to survive, let alone flourish.

 

But there is plenty of reason for optimism at this point.

[RammyFanny]

in this [expletive] offensive climate, .250/.290/.400 with +5 2B defense is still like a purely average starter

 

go bring up Kolten Wong's fangraphs page and have a hearty chuckle at how stupid this sport is right now

 

Sure. But if everything else stays more or less the same and the .412 BABIP normalizes, he's going a lot further south than .290.

 

Everything else more or less is not going to stay the same (the circumstances around his AB's) and the the .412 BABIP will obviously normalize.

 

Just because you write off the small sample size of his peripherals as an endless cycle of the same argument doesn't make it any less silly when you then keep using and lock in said peripherals into hypothetical projections.

 

FFS, the next 5 AB's could raise his AVG/OBP/BABIP by 45 points or lower them by 20. 3 games worth of plate appearances could raise/lower his K-rate by like 5 percent. 3 walks can affect his BB% by 5%.

 

But in the world of hypotheticals, if he can keep his K's around 27-30% and get his BB% to 7-8%, which is what his BB% was in the upper minors and close to last year in the majors, then he can still OBP .310-.345 with a more normal BABIP. And even if he doesn't, he can still be a useful player and not a "dumpster fire." I don't know which way he is going to go, but inferring that his BABIP, LD%, and other peripherals after 70 AB's are worth anything more than a cursory glance this early is silly.

 

He's cut down on the leg kick, drastically altered where he stands in the box, altered his 2-strike approach, and closed his stance a ton in an attempt to reduce strikeouts. There were 300 AAA AB's he has with the new approach that is probably still being modified, and it has resulted in his lowest K-rate ever outside of A-ball. If there's any player that shouldn't have SSS's over analyzed, it's probably him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes, we've seen that you see some peripherals as concrete realities while others that can't be read into with as much certainty are 100% meaningless.

 

That's a rather silly exaggeration of what I've said. Some peripherals are proven to be predictive, others aren't.

 

Like, for example...

Baez has a .412 BABIP, it's not going to stay that way. He also has a 31% LD% and only 7% soft contact, both are way better than any qualified 2B. It doesn't help answer the questions about his future, but it explains the very small sample of his MLB time this year. Reading much good or bad into that sample is silly. My confidence comes largely from his peripheral improvement at AAA and the material change in his swing that explains it. That his MLB performance directionally continues that improvement is enough for me to feel comfortable with him going forward(especially with capable backups).

 

Line drive percentage. It's notoriously fickle and not particularly predictive except over insanely long samples (multiple years). An extreme good LD% and a high BABIP are measuring the *same luck*.

 

If you see his AAA performance as an indication he's ready to be the starting 2b, fine. I think that's defensible.

Edited October 2, 2015 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If there's any player that shouldn't have SSS's over analyzed, it's probably him.

 

I completely agree, but I suspect we'll continue to see it happen.

 

Just so we make this clear: I'm not saying I think Baez will suck in the future. I'm simply saying I don't care that he's spent a couple of weeks spraying line drives in the majors.

[mul21]

Yes, we've seen that you see some peripherals as concrete realities while others that can't be read into with as much certainty are 100% meaningless.

 

That's a rather silly exaggeration of what I've said. Some peripherals are proven to be predictive, others aren't.

 

Like, for example...

Baez has a .412 BABIP, it's not going to stay that way. He also has a 31% LD% and only 7% soft contact, both are way better than any qualified 2B. It doesn't help answer the questions about his future, but it explains the very small sample of his MLB time this year. Reading much good or bad into that sample is silly. My confidence comes largely from his peripheral improvement at AAA and the material change in his swing that explains it. That his MLB performance directionally continues that improvement is enough for me to feel comfortable with him going forward(especially with capable backups).

 

Line drive percentage. It's notoriously fickle and not particularly predictive except over insanely long samples (multiple years). An extreme good LD% and a high BABIP are measuring the *same luck*.

 

If you see his AAA performance as an indication he's ready to be the starting 2b, fine. I think that's defensible.

 

I think you're greatly misconstruing what most are saying here. No one (as far as I can see) is taking great stock in his ML numbers this year, but taking those into consideration along with the swing and approach changes that resulted in improved K and BB numbers at AAA over a larger sample size gives everyone a lot more hope than anybody could have hoped for after the disaster his call up last season was.

[snoodmonger]

If there's any player that shouldn't have SSS's over analyzed, it's probably him.

 

I completely agree, but I suspect we'll continue to see it happen.

 

Just so we make this clear: I'm not saying I think Baez will suck in the future. I'm simply saying I don't care that he's spent a couple of weeks spraying line drives in the majors.

 

All these posts to make that limp point? Good lord.