Baez

[minnesotacubsfan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/javier-baez-and-swinging-strike-rate/

 

I hate seeing an article like this. Javy still has the big swing fairly often before toning it down and I'd say that's what's probably unaccounted for here. But some of you are great at analyzing these things and I'd love a few opinions....

 

My take is he's always going to K a lot, but I'd think he's very valuable at 25-30% and I think that's doable with his current approach and the elimination of the leg kick at times. If he rids himself of it completely and continues to have power, then he's a stud.

 

 

I'm going with "he's a stud".

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/javier-baez-and-swinging-strike-rate/

 

I hate seeing an article like this. Javy still has the big swing fairly often before toning it down and I'd say that's what's probably unaccounted for here. But some of you are great at analyzing these things and I'd love a few opinions....

 

My take is he's always going to K a lot, but I'd think he's very valuable at 25-30% and I think that's doable with his current approach and the elimination of the leg kick at times. If he rids himself of it completely and continues to have power, then he's a stud.

 

Yeah, I'm going with: This article is true, in the sense that Javy won't continue to have a K% that is nearly equal to his Swing Strike%. But a lot of the article was conjecture and balderdash. There are a number of reasons that explain Javy's Swinging Strike% and K%. For one, Javy has put the ball in play a lot when making contact. That is, he's hitting less foul balls. Also, he is seeing an inordinately high amount of first-pitch strikes. Thus, by putting the ball in play and not fouling pitches off as much, his K% is going to be deflated, because he is not allowing at bats to continue to the point he strikes out. And, since he is seeing more first-pitch strikes, his at bats are moving quicker to their ultimate outcome. Thus, he's swinging at pitches more often this year, despite being more selective. So: More pitches in the zone equals more swings, which equals more swinging strikes per pitch seen. He'll start seeing more pitches out of the zone, especially if he keeps hitting well. And that will superficially reduce his Swinging Strike%, since he won't be swinging at most of those pitches.

 

It's still pretty early to be making any sweeping conclusions about his plate discipline this year, though. He is correct: That trend won't continue. I would expect his K% to go up. But, if he keeps with this same improved discipline, his Swinging Strike% will probably drop some, too. In fact, it already dropped to 17.3% after today's games. His contact% is up to 65.2% after today's games, as well. His contact% on balls inside and outside of the zone look similar to last year. But, his main improvement has been in pitch recognition. He is swinging at balls in the zone a lot more this year. And he is laying off balls out of the zone a lot more. His O-Swing% and Z-Swing% look like those of a normal, competent hitter.

 

Give it a few more weeks, and I would surmise that his numbers will start to look normal. He'll be a low-contact guy that won't see a ton of pitches in the zone. But, he might also be one that is still laying off those pitches out of the zone. So his Swinging Strike% might be down around 15% and his K% up around 30%. But, you are right, his two-strike approach might help keep him below the 30-35 K% range, and his contact% hopefully is somewhere in the 65-70% range.

[Guest]

It's not quite the same because Baez is a more flawed hitter, but it's reminiscent of the 'oh no what about Kris Bryant's contact rate' silliness. Baez should not be trying to optimize his swinging strike percentage. I'd rather he swing through a 1-0 pitch than make weaker contact in an effort to avoid missing.

 

It's still of some importance because he obviously doesn't want to miss very often with 2 strikes, and swinging and missing is at least a partial reflection of his ability to square up a ball and make contact. But it's a good example of a peripheral that is so abstracted away from the actual results that optimizing that peripheral is not always in the hitter's best interest. That makes the extapolation from SwStr% to K rate pretty shaky, at least for a hitter with Baez's goals and talents. For Tommy La Stella? Sure. Even Castro too. Not someone whose value will rise and fall with hammering pitches for extra bases.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So here is some good stuff about Javy. (This comes with an obligatory small sample size warning.) Let's take a look at Javy's batted-ball profile. (last year's stats on top and this year's below):

 

[pre]LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard%

13.7 % 41.0 % 45.3 % 20.8 % 17.0 % 8.3 % 0.0 % 48.3 % 31.4 % 20.3 % 18.6 % 50.0 % 31.4 %

24.1 % 41.4 % 34.5 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 34.5 % 34.5 % 31.0 % 10.3 % 62.1 % 27.6 %[/pre]

A lot of this stuff doesn't correlate year-to-year and nearly all of it has yet to reach stabilization points. However, it's still nice to see. He's hitting fewer balls softly. His infield fly ball rate is down. He's hitting more line drives. He's spraying the ball to all fields.

 

Here's another really good sign: His contact% is up from 59.0% to 67.1%.

 

So what were Javy's problems last year? Well, basically everything. He had no real approach at the plate. He was susceptible to fastballs above the zone and breaking balls below the zone. He swung at a bunch of junk out of the zone, and pitchers exploited all of his weaknesses to devastating results. His pitch recognition was terrible. He got fooled a lot. Pitchers were able to catch him guessing. He didn't really attack pitches in the zone and do damage with them like you would hope, especially for someone who chased so much junk. And, his two-strike approach was -- well, there wasn't one, other than to swing at essentially everything.

 

So let's see what Javy is doing differently this year. We'll start with two-strike counts. Here's a chart showing Javy's zone profile and his whiffs per swing on two-strike counts last year:

[spoil]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=595879&startDate=01/01/2014&endDate=01/01/2015&minmax=ci&var=whiffswing&balls=-1&strikes=2&b_hand=-1[/spoil]

Here's the same thing, except for this year:

[spoil]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&player=595879&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=whiffswing&balls=-1&strikes=2&b_hand=-1[/spoil]That's 74 whiffs in 173 swings on two-strike counts last year, good for a 57.2% contact rate. This year he has 6 whiffs in 26 swings on two-strike counts, good for a 76.9% contact rate.

 

Ok, that's encouraging. Is there anything else notable that Javy is doing on two-strike counts? What about his balls in play? I'm glad you asked. Here is a spray chart of balls Javy has put in play on two-strike counts this year:

[spoil]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_hc_spray.php?s_type=16&gFilt=&time=month&player=595879&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=2&b_hand=-1[/spoil]So he's going the other way with fastballs. Nice.

 

Anything else Javy is doing better this year? Well, somewhat surprisingly, Javy struggled with fastballs more than just about anything else last year. According to Fangraphs, his fastball runs above average (wFB) was -10.0 last year. It's 0.6 this year. On at bats ending on four-seam fastballs last year, Javy was 7/70 with 35 strikeouts. This year, he is at 4/12 with 1 strikeout. Ok. Why was he so bad against fastballs last year and what has changed this year? Here is a zone profile showing Javy's whiffs per swing against four-seam fastballs last year:

[spoil]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=595879&startDate=01/01/2014&endDate=01/01/2015&minmax=ci&var=whiffswing&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1[/spoil]

Here's the same thing, except for this season:

[spoil]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=595879&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=whiffswing&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1[/spoil]That's 64 whiffs in 149 swings against four-seam fastballs last year, good for a 57.0% contact rate. That's really, really bad. This year he has whiffed 6 times in 27 swings against four-seam fastballs, good for a 77.8% contact rate.

 

So, what is the major difference this year? Well, it's mainly because Javy is attacking fastballs in the zone and laying off of that junk up above the zone. Here is a zone profile showing the percentage of pitches Javy swung at against four-seam fastballs, from last year:

[spoil]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=595879&startDate=01/01/2014&endDate=01/01/2015&minmax=ci&var=swing&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1[/spoil]

Here's the same thing, except for this season:

[spoil]http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA&time=month&player=595879&startDate=01/01/2015&endDate=01/01/2016&minmax=ci&var=swing&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1[/spoil]Last year, Javy swung at 47 of 92 four-seam fastballs he saw that were above the zone. This year, he's only swung at 2 of the 9 he's seen above the zone. And on two-strike counts last year, he swung at 26 of 50 four-seam fastballs he saw that were above the zone. This year, on two-strike counts, he's swung at 1 of 6 above the zone.

 

He's also improved his approach against breaking balls below the zone. Last year, he swung at 99 of 178 breaking balls that he saw that were below the zone. That's a 55.6% swing rate at breaking balls below the zone. Horrible. This year he is at 12 for 26, which isn't great, but it is an improvement. Last year, with two strikes, he was even more susceptible to the breaking ball below the zone. He swung at 47 of the 73 he saw on a two-strike count. That's a 64.3% swing rate. This year, he's swung at 5 of 10 on two-strike counts, so far.

 

So Javy is still susceptible against breaking balls below the zone, though not to the same degree of putrid that he was last year. But, mainly, Javy is attacking fastballs in the zone and laying off the ones above the zone. He's also been much more disciplined on two-strike counts. Yes, small sample size warnings abound, but this is still really encouraging to see.

[Guest]

All the obvious small sample qualifiers, but still far better than the alternative. Very good post. Thanks for that.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

So Javy has been fantastic defensively at third.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

So Javy has been fantastic defensively at third.

 

Before Russell had the shortstop job, pretty much everyone knew he was the best shortstop on the team, and I think we can say the same about Javy and third base right now.

[CubInOK]

You keep playing that cool jazz Duke Silver.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

Is Javy still a rookie? Is Jorge?

[ConstableRabbit]

Is Javy still a rookie? Is Jorge?

Yes, yes.

[davell]

No, Javy is not. Soler is.

[ConstableRabbit]

No, Javy is not. Soler is.

I retract my previous statement. Move along.

[Guest]

Is Javy still a rookie? Is Jorge?

Yes, yes.

 

Wow, Javy just barely makes it. I didn't think he did, but he's 18 AB shy.

[Guest]

No, Javy is not. Soler is.

 

Javy only had 112 AB before the rosters expanded

 

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

[ConstableRabbit]

[davell]

That's an either/or, not both. Javy is not a rookie.

[Guest]

That's an either/or, not both. Javy is not a rookie.

 

He didn't do either of those things last year during the 25 man roster period

 

unless you mean accruing 130AB regardless of whether it was during the 25 man period or not. i'm not sure how to interpret the language.

[davell]

If you have over 130 at bats, you're not a rookie after that point.

[Guest]

i guess the semi-colon is the separator there...yeah that makes sense.

[Guest]

doesn't mean much, but what the hell

 

javy is playing at a 4.3 fWAR/650 PA pace

 

that number could be really off given rounding at the small sample size

[Tracer Bullet]

i guess the semi-colon is the separator there...yeah that makes sense.

 

that and the fact that one follows an (a) and the other follows a (b)

[chuckywang]

i guess the semi-colon is the separator there...yeah that makes sense.

 

that and the fact that one follows an (a) and the other follows a (b)

 

But it could be interpreted this way:

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has

(a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues;

or

(b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs

 

during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

 

vs.

 

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has

(a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues;

or

(b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

 

That being said, the second one makes more sense. He's not a rookie.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Statcast has Javy's throw home last night at 94.8 mph. :shock:

 

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/chc/video/v485395383/chcpit-baez-nabs-florimon-with-95mph-throw-home

[ConstableRabbit]

Statcast has Javy's throw home last night at 94.8 mph. :shock:

 

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/chc/video/v485395383/chcpit-baez-nabs-florimon-with-95mph-throw-home

Holy [expletive].

[Tracer Bullet]

i guess the semi-colon is the separator there...yeah that makes sense.

 

that and the fact that one follows an (a) and the other follows a (b)

 

But it could be interpreted this way:

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has

(a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues;

or

(b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs

 

during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

 

vs.

 

Determining rookie status:

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has

(a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues;

or

(b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

 

That being said, the second one makes more sense. He's not a rookie.

 

yeah, no. if you want a clause to apply to all options, you list it before the options. that's why "during a previous season or seasons" appears before the options and not at the end of the 2nd option.