Baez

[Lefty]

Compared to 2014 on the MLB level he has cut his K% from 41% to 28%, and his BABIP has risen from .248 to .412. Of course his ISO is down from .159 to .115, maybe not as bad as I thought on that one. What does the board think? Is he still part of the plan?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Compared to 2014 on the MLB level he has cut his K% from 41% to 28%, and his BABIP has risen from .248 to .412. Of course his ISO is down from .159 to .115, maybe not as bad as I thought on that one. What does the board think? Is he still part of the plan?

 

It's good that he's not a total dumpster fire anymore, but the peripherals are still those of a sucky player (except exit velocity!) and he's living in Magical Line Drive Land where an unsustainable percentage of the balls he makes contact with are solid contact. He's going to need to keep improving, and not a small amount, to stay relevant.

[RammyFanny]

It's still like 70 extremely scattered AB's. I know we're working with what we have, but I think we're still in the eye test stage vs. quoting peripherals. Although some (K-rate) will be quoted for obvious reasons.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's still like 70 extremely scattered AB's. I know we're working with what we have, but I think we're still in the eye test stage vs. quoting peripherals. Although some (K-rate) will be quoted for obvious reasons.

 

Eye test is horrible for guys who are getting unsustainable line drive rates.

[Guest]

he's hitting the ball hard, heaven forfend.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

he's hitting the ball hard, heaven forfend.

 

I'm glad he's doing it. But he's not going to keep doing it.

[davell]

He's 22. He's very talented. He'll keep improving.

[sneakypower]

and i saw his contact rate (was pushing 70), now i'm a believer, i couldn't leave him if i tried

[RammyFanny]

It's still like 70 extremely scattered AB's. I know we're working with what we have, but I think we're still in the eye test stage vs. quoting peripherals. Although some (K-rate) will be quoted for obvious reasons.

 

Eye test is horrible for guys who are getting unsustainable line drive rates.

 

Maddon is playing him sporadically and in favorable matchups against lefties and against righties without nasty off speed stuff. Him having a crazy line drive rate in a ridiculously small sample size against those type of pitchers is not hard to fathom nor surprising.

 

When he's not starting, he is entering as a late inning defensive replacement and getting a random late AB against a generally good reliever. He is annihilating lefties like he always does and has a crazy good line/BABIP against them in a tiny sample size. Pointing out his line drive rate being unsustainable seems pretty obvious, and we don't really have enough there to make any generalizations about how he would be playing if he were playing every day.

 

And even if he were playing every day, the data would be about as relevant as picking a random ass 70 AB sample size from Addison Russell and telling people he's going to have to improve a large amount from those peripherals in order to be relevant and not a total dumpster fire.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

An endless cycle:

 

"Baez's performance is really encouraging!"

 

"Eh, not really, peripherals blah blah blah."

 

"Well, his performance is way too small a sample size to mean anything."

[imb]

he's been protected so much in the lineup and with matchups that there's basically no point in really debating it now, because you can just see what you want to see. Fangraphs seems to think he's been a good fielder so far and I know the cubs think he's a great baserunner, so we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[RammyFanny]

An endless cycle:

 

"Baez's performance is really encouraging!"

 

"Eh, not really, peripherals blah blah blah."

 

"Well, his performance is way too small a sample size to mean anything."

[expletive]

 

I don't want to know anything anymore. This is a world where nothing is solved. Someone once told me, "time is a flat circle." Everything we've ever done or will do, we're gonna do over and over and over again. And that Javy and his unsustainable line drive rate, they're gonna be in that room again

 

and again

 

and again

 

 

 

forever.

[badger1679666666]

Every time I begin to feel good about something, I read a Kyle post.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Every time I begin to feel good about something, I read a Kyle post.

 

Feel good about Arrieta. Feel good about Rizzo. Feel good about Schwarber and Russell. Feel good about there being a Cubs playoff game on the schedule.

[sneakypower]

Feel good about Schwarber

no can do- too whiffy

 

and Russell.

still too whiffy

[Guest]

An endless cycle:

 

"Baez's performance is really encouraging!"

 

"Eh, not really, peripherals blah blah blah."

 

"Well, his performance is way too small a sample size to mean anything."

 

This cycle happens because you choose to interpret "I like that Baez is doing better" as "Baez looks totally fixed!".

 

 

To the original question, Baez's improvements at AAA and in MLB give me enough optimism to take the chance on him as the primary 2B next year. You'll have a decent or great hedge for him with Castro, La Stella, or both still on the roster. You don't pencil him in as a primary run producer, but in an offense that has no other true weak spots(Russell's bat maybe), it's a perfectly fine gamble to take. If they think this restored his value enough to sell high, then that's fine too because he's still very high variance.

[davell]

Feel good about Schwarber

no can do- too whiffy

 

and Russell.

still too whiffy

 

Because 21 and 22 year olds never improve?

[sneakypower]

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--rDS9lHXS--/dtst5vvjubdmqgkvvsaf.png

[davell]

Well [expletive]

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This cycle happens because you choose to interpret "I like that Baez is doing better" as "Baez looks totally fixed!".

 

I did no such thing.

 

To the original question, Baez's improvements at AAA and in MLB give me enough optimism to take the chance on him as the primary 2B next year. You'll have a decent or great hedge for him with Castro, La Stella, or both still on the roster. You don't pencil him in as a primary run producer, but in an offense that has no other true weak spots(Russell's bat maybe), it's a perfectly fine gamble to take. If they think this restored his value enough to sell high, then that's fine too because he's still very high variance.

 

I don't see it. Those still aren't the peripherals of a starting infielder in MLB.

[sneakypower]

in this [expletive] offensive climate, .250/.290/.400 with +5 2B defense is still like a purely average starter

 

go bring up Kolten Wong's (edit: Wilmer Flores's!) fangraphs page and have a hearty chuckle at how stupid this sport is right now

Edited October 2, 2015 by sneakypower

[Hairyducked Idiot]

in this [expletive] offensive climate, .250/.290/.400 with +5 2B defense is still like a purely average starter

 

go bring up Kolten Wong's fangraphs page and have a hearty chuckle at how stupid this sport is right now

 

Sure. But if everything else stays more or less the same and the .412 BABIP normalizes, he's going a lot further south than .290.

[sneakypower]

his isolated slugging is 40% below projected levels, not sure how you missed / neglected to mention that...

[Guest]

and i saw his contact rate (was pushing 70), now i'm a believer, i couldn't leave him if i tried

 

Damn this is like the third post of yours that I've liked today

[Hairyducked Idiot]

his isolated slugging is 40% below projected levels, not sure how you missed / neglected to mention that...

 

I assumed that was baked into your .400 projection